The future and its implications for schools.

1. Adaptive Schools for a Different
Future

2. StephenMurgatroyd, PhD

5. The Consequences of
Poor Literacy
Just a moment…

18. AMessagefrom
Quebec

19. “Thefuture
isn’twhatit
usedto be..”

20. What’sItAll
About?
 This presentation has three components:
 A Brief History of the Future
 The Implications of This Future for Learning
and Schools
 Leadership for a Different Future

21. FiveForces
Shapingthe
Future
1. Governments and their relationships with public
institutions – austerity, accountability and complexity.
2. New forms of organizations and new patterns of work. –
the “uberization” of organizations and the “gig” economy.
3. Technological change shifting the focus of work,
productivity and performance:
1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Robotics
3. 3D Printing
4. Stem-Cell Therapies and new approaches to medical
treatment.
5. New materials (e.g. graphene)
4. Environmental shifts – 9 billion people by 2050 and
climate change.
5. Demographic shifts and changes in social behaviour and
“consciousness” – new patterns of social interaction,
social engagement and new understandings of
relationships between people, people and work, people
and society, people and the planet.

22. FreelanceandSelf
Employment
Growing
 By 2016 in Australia, app. 38% of the workforce
were freelance workers – contracted for service
rather than employees. 17% declare themselves
in this way as self-employed. The freelance
workforce doubled since 2008.
 60% of the university sector are freelance
workers (sessional, part-timers).
 80% of all new jobs advertised in Australia over
the last twelve months were part-time.

23. TheGigEconomy
IStheEconomy..  Worldwide, 40% of the world’s
workforce are freelance workers and
this number is expected to rise to
60% by 2020.
 In the Fortune 100 companies,
freelance workers make up 30% of
the workforce, but predictions are
that will soon rise to 50%.

24. Changesinthe
Workforce
 Shift from routine work to creative
employment..
 Replacement of routine work with
technology – think secretarial services,
banking, insurance, travel..
 Higher education key to future employment..
 Literacy and numeracy are the keys that
unlock all of this future…

25. NotOnlyHasWHO
isworkingchanged,
butWHATtheydo
hastoo
 Manufacturing more focused on the management of technology
than production activity – maintenance.
 Artificial intelligence + design = new thinking about process.
 Office work has changed – 24x7 access, process based work,
globalization of work..
 Most gains in productivity arise from deployment of technology –
we need to learn to dance with robots
BMW Mini Plant at Cowley, Oxford UK
A customized car every 61 seconds

26. Idea2:MoreChangeto
Come
Technology

27. Emerging
Technology:3D
Printing
 Local Motors (Phoenix, Arizona) crowdsources design and
engineering and then 3D prints its components / body.
 Manufactures customized versions on demand.
 Manufactures all forms of transport, including snowmobiles,
water based vehicles and public transport.
 First driverless 3d printed public bus now operating in
Helsinki and will soon operate in Calgary

28. 3DPrinting
Quickly
Emerging…
 A group of Dutch engineers have printed a bridge crossing a Dutch canal
using an “arm printer”, overcoming the size limitations of 1st and 2nd
generation 3D printers.
 Apis Corp (San Francisco) 3D printed a house in 24 hours at a cost of
$12,000US that met the California building code.
 3D medical devices – prosthetics, stents, dental devices and other – already
a fast growing sector: the ability to personalize / customize a strong
attractor.
 Using a cell phone as a printer (light from the phone used on polymers to
print) Elon Musk and his engineers at SpaceX have created a 3D printed
SuperDraco rocket engine. This got off the ground in 2016.
 3D printing now includes:
 Aerospace parts (European Space Agency)
 Metal parts using various metals and graphene
 Props and materials for films / TV
 Shoes and clothing
 Bones, skin and body parts
 Tires and car parts

29. Robotics
 Forget many of the images you have of what robots are
and what they can do..
 Imagine..
 Robotic kitchens which can produce meals on demand..
 Robotic weapons and fight systems
 Self-driving cars, buses, trains and trucks likely to
replace current transport systems over time – potential
displacement of some 3.5 million North American
workers by 2030
 570,000 surgeries in 2014 were robotically assisted in
the US

30. Artificial
Intelligence(AI)  Offering an analysis of an MRI scan – suggesting clinical
pathways based on “best possible” understanding
 Predicting student behaviour
 Counselling and personal therapy..
 Supports for design and creativity
 Man-machine interfaces for better productivity – especially in
manufacturing, financial services and health
The Singularity – Where AI is smarter than
the collective intelligence of the species

31. Idea2:MoreChangeto
Come
Demography

32. BasicDemography(Canada) By 2030, 21.87% of Australians will be over 65 years of
age - up from 13.8% in 2011.
 Ratio of workers to seniors shifting from 5:1 (2012) to
2.5:1 (20132) - major tax implications!
 Rate of growth of seniors is faster than the rate of
growth of the working population.
The Age of
the Senior

33. By2050:More
Demographic
Shocks..
 Global population will exceed 9 billion
 The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double
 There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number
 80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries
 For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14
 In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65

34. Economic
Geography–Shift
Happens!
 2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030,
mainly in Asia, India and Africa
 By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be
headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or
Europe (41% of them are already Asian based)
 425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in
Asia

35. AllofWhich
GivesRiseTo..
 Increased pressure on Governments for $$ at a time
when the tax base is shrinking
 Increased pressure on schools, colleges and universities
to engage in both the skills agenda but also a new focus
on resilience and adaptability
 Increased pressure to accelerate program completion,
offer more flexible routes to success and engage in new
and imaginative programming.

36. AManifestation
ofWhich…
 The Skills Gap – which is actually complex..
 Gap 1: The Basic Gap: The Gap Between What
Employers are Seeking and What they Can Find
 Gap 2: The Expectations Gap – The Gap Between What
an Employee Expects to Experience at Work and What
they Actually Find Themselves Doing
 Gap 3: The Productivity Gap – The Skills We Need to
Develop to Significantly Improve Productivity
 Gap 4: The Leverage Gap – The Underutilization of
Skills in the Workforce
 Gap 5: The Futures Gap – The Gap Between Current
Skill Sets and the Skills We Need to Become Competitive
in the 4th Industrial Revolution
 Gap 6: The Innovation Gap - The Skills We Need to Build
a More Innovative and Sustainable Economy

37. andanew
understanding
of“SELF”
 A variety of substantial surveys of
Millennials (born between 1981 and
2000) show that they see themselves as:
 “Awesome”
 Capable
 Confident
 Connected
 Open to Change
 Work-Life Balance
 High Expectations for Themselves and
Society

38. NewThinkingAbout
Learning

39. We’re in the midst of a significa nt
change.A..
In Between
Time
Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort
SystemMaturity
Industrial
Form of
Schooling / 3rd
Way Policies
21st Century for
of Personalized
Learning in
School and
Community / 4th
Way Policies
Paradigm Shi
The Future School in the In Between
Time

40. TwoSolitudesof
Educational
Policy
(MurgatroydandSahlberg,2016)
Competition Between
Schools
Frequent Testing /
Accountability
De-Professionalization
PISA Envy
Collaboration
Trust Based
Responsibility
Collaborative
Professional Autonomy
Equity as the Key
Measure
GERM EQUITY

41. 5Important
Developments
 Schools are where the action is - schools make a
difference, not technology or analytics or policy
 Schools make a difference through a focus on the
student as a person not as a data point -
compassion, empathy and genuineness produce
more outcomes than algorithms and PISA
 Collaboration is the DNA of the knowledge economy
- teachers who collaborate with other teachers and
students who engage in collaborative meaningful
projects achieve.. Competition between schools
lowers system-wide outcomes…
 Learning from others and innovation will be
essential for all of our future…
 Challenging ourselves to create great schools for all
and a great school down the road is the key task of
leadership.

42. KeyComponents
ofEmergent
LearningSystems
 They focus on meeting learner needs and expectations.
Teaching is about engagement, value creation and
competencies.
 Through engagement, personalized learning, frequent
feedback and competency based assessment we can
change the pace of learning
 Schools prosper when students are engaged in the
design of their learning experiences and the student
voice is heard
 Schools thrive when teachers collaborate and have
professional autonomy
 But learning “stuff” is no longer the key - we need to
think about adaptive, resilient learners - this will be
the key “skill” in the balance of this century

44. TheDelors
Framework
My Self
and My
Future
Learning
to Know
Learning
to Do
Learning
to Live
Together
Learning
to Be

45. • Tough
Minded
• Self-
Disciplined
• Adaptive• Purposeful
Connected Curious
Self-
Reliant
Hopeful
TheResilientandAdaptive
Student

46. HowWouldYour
StudentsAnswer
These12
Questions?
 I know what is expected of me in school today
 I have everything I need to be a successful student
today
 At this school I have an opportunity to shine as a
student every day
 In the last five school days I have been recognized for
my achievements by a teacher
 My teachers know me and care about me as a person
 My voice as a student counts in this school – I feel I
can make a difference

47. ..2…
 What this school stands for makes me proud to be a
student
 Everyone in my class is committed to doing quality
work
 I have a best friend at school
 Every month someone talks to me about my progress
at school
 Every month I feel I have an opportunity to grow
through learning
 My teachers are committed to my development

48. WhatDoYouNeedto
Do?
SOME SUGGESTIONS..

49. BuildandEmpower
TeacherTeams&
FocusTheirWorkon
TheNowWhatand
SoWhat..

50. BuildandEmpowerLearnerSupports

51. Enable the
Student Voice
To Be Heard

52. Connect
Globally- Act
Locally

53. EQUITY
DRIVES ALL

56. InConclusion..

57. IfAllElseFails..