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Project Management Mehmet TANLAK For  Operations Management, 9e  by Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra  © 2010 Pearson Education PowerPoint Slides by Jeff Heyl
Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Defining and Organizing Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Organizational Structure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Planning Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Work Breakdown Structure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Work Breakdown Structure ,[object Object],Level 1 Level 0 Level 2 Relocation of St. John’s Hospital Purchase and deliver equipment Construct hospital Develop information system Install medical equipment Train nurses and support staff Select administration staff Site selection and survey Select medical equipment Prepare final construction plans Bring utilities to site Interview applicants for nursing and support staff Organizing and Site Preparation Physical Facilities and Infrastructure
Diagramming the Network ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Diagramming the Network ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Diagramming the Network Figure 2.2 S T U S precedes T, which precedes U. AON Activity Relationships S T U S and T must be completed before U can be started .
Diagramming the Network Figure 2.2 AON Activity Relationships T U S T and U cannot begin until S has been completed. S T U V U and V can’t begin until both S and T have been completed.
Diagramming the Network Figure 2.2 AON Activity Relationships S T U V U cannot begin until both S and T have been completed; V cannot begin until T has been completed. S T V U T and U cannot begin until S has been completed and V cannot begin until both T and U have been completed.
Developing the Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Critical Path ,[object Object],[object Object]
St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 START START A B B A C D A E, G, H F, I, J K 0 12 9 10 10 24 10 35 40 15 4 6 0 Kramer Stewart Johnson Taylor Adams Taylor Burton Johnson Walker Sampson Casey Murphy Pike Ashton Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH
St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 Completion Time Figure 2.3 Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH Finish K 6  I 15  F 10  C 10  H 40  J 4  A 12  B 9  Start G 35  D 10  E 24  Activity IP  Time A START 12 B START 9 C A 10 D B 10 E B 24 F A 10 G C 35 H D 40 I A 15 J E, G, H 4 K F, I, J 6
St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 Completion Time Figure 2.3 Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH Finish K 6  I 15  F 10  C 10  D 10  H 40  J 4  A 12  B 9  Start G 35  E 24  Path Estimated Time (weeks) A–I–K 33 A–F–K 28 A–C–G–J–K 67 B–D–H–J–K 69 B–E–J–K 43
St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 Completion Time Figure 2.3 Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH Finish K 6  I 15  F 10  C 10  D 10  H 40  J 4  A 12  B 9  Start G 35  E 24  Path Estimated Time (weeks) A–I–K 33 A–F–K 28 A–C–G–J–K 67 B–D–H–J–K 69 B–E–J–K 43
Application 2.1 The following information is known about a project Draw the network diagram for this project Activity Activity Time (days) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 7 — B 2 A C 4 A D 4 B, C E 4 D F 3 E G 5 E
Application 2.1 Finish G 5 F 3 E 4 D 4 Activity Activity Time (days) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 7 — B 2 A C 4 A D 4 B, C E 4 D F 3 E G 5 E B 2 C 4 Start A 7
Project Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object]
Project Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Early Start and Early Finish Times ,[object Object],[object Object],SOLUTION To compute the early start and early finish times, we begin at the start node at time zero. Because activities A and B have no predecessors, the earliest start times for these activities are also zero. The earliest finish times for these activities are EF A  = 0 + 12 = 12 and EF B  = 0 + 9 = 9
Early Start and Early Finish Times ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],After placing these ES values on the network diagram, we determine the EF times for activities I, F, C, D, and E: EF I  = 12 + 15 = 27, EF F  = 12 + 10 = 22, EF C  = 12 + 10 = 22, EF D  = 9 + 10 = 19, and EF E  = 9 + 24 = 33
Early Start and Early Finish Times ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Latest finish time Latest start time Activity Duration Earliest start time Earliest finish time 0 2 12 14 A 12
Network Diagram Figure 2.4 K 6 C 10 G 35 J 4 H 40 B 9 D 10 E 24 I 15 Finish Start A 12 F 10 0  9 9  33 9  19 19  59 22  57 12  22 59  63 12  27 12  22 63  69 0  12
Early Start and Early Finish Times ,[object Object],[object Object],If activity K is to start no later than week 63, all its predecessors must finish no later than that time. Consequently, LF I  = 63, LF F  = 63, and LF J  = 63
Early Start and Early Finish Times ,[object Object],[object Object],After obtaining LS J , we can calculate the latest start times for the immediate predecessors of activity J: LS G  = 59 – 35 = 24, LS H  = 59 – 40 = 19, and LS E  = 59 – 24 = 35 Similarly, we can now calculate the latest start times for activities C and D: LS C  = 24 – 10 = 14 and LS D  = 19 – 10 = 9
Early Start and Early Finish Times ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Network Diagram Figure 2.4 K 6 C 10 G 35 J 4 H 40 B 9 D 10 E 24 I 15 Finish Start A 12 F 10 0  9 9  33 9  19 19  59 22  57 12  22 59  63 12  27 12  22 63  69 0  12 48  63 53  63 59  63 24  59 19  59 35  59 14  24 9  19 2  14 0  9 63  69 S = 36 S = 2 S = 41 S = 2 S = 26 S = 2 S = 0 S = 0 S = 0 S = 0 S = 0
Gantt Chart Figure 2.5
Activity Slack ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Application 2.2 Calculate the four times for each activity in order to determine the critical path and project duration. The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5
Application 2.2 Calculate the four times for each activity in order to determine the critical path and project duration. The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5 7 9 9 11 9-7=2 No 7 7 11 11 7-7=0 Yes 19 21 22 24 21-19=2 No 19 19 24 24 19-19=0 Yes 11 11 15 15 11-11=0 Yes 15 15 19 19 15-15=0 Yes
Application 2.2 The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 7 9 9 11 9-7=2 No C 4 7 7 11 11 7-7=0 Yes D 4 11 11 15 15 11-11=0 Yes E 4 15 15 19 19 15-15=0 Yes F 3 21 21 22 24 21-19=2 No G 5 19 19 24 24 19-19=0 Yes Start Finish A 7 B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5
Application 2.2 The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 7 9 9 11 9-7=2 No C 4 7 7 11 11 7-7=0 Yes D 4 11 11 15 15 11-11=0 Yes E 4 15 15 19 19 15-15=0 Yes F 3 21 21 22 24 21-19=2 No G 5 19 19 24 24 19-19=0 Yes Start Finish A 7 B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5
Cost-Time Trade-Offs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1. Normal time (NT) 3. Crash time (CT) 2. Normal cost (NC) 4. Crash cost (CC) Cost to crash per period = CC – NC NT – CT
Cost-Time Relationships Figure 2.6 Linear cost assumption 8000 — 7000 — 6000 — 5000 — 4000 — 3000 — 0  — Direct cost (dollars) | | | | | | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Time (weeks) Crash cost (CC) Normal cost (NC) (Crash time) (Normal time) Estimated costs for a 2-week reduction, from 10 weeks to  8 weeks  5200
Cost-Time Relationships TABLE 2.1  |  DIRECT COST AND TIME DATA FOR THE ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT Activity Normal Time (NT) (weeks) Normal Cost (NC)($) Crash Time (CT)(weeks) Crash Cost (CC)($) Maximum Time Reduction (week) Cost of Crashing per Week ($) A 12 $12,000 11 $13,000 1 1,000 B 9 50,000 7 64,000 2 7,000 C 10 4,000 5 7,000 5 600 D 10 16,000 8 20,000 2 2,000 E 24 120,000 14 200,000 10 8,000 F 10 10,000 6 16,000 4 1,500 G 35 500,000 25 530,000 10 3,000 H 40 1,200,000 35 1,260,000 5 12,000 I 15 40,000 10 52,500 5 2,500 J 4 10,000 1 13,000 3 1,000 K 6 30,000 5 34,000 1 4,000 Totals $1,992,000 $2,209,500
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],SOLUTION The projected completion time of the project is 69 weeks. The project costs for that schedule are $1,992,000 in direct costs, 69($8,000) = $552,000 in indirect costs, and (69 – 65)($20,000)  = $80,000 in penalty costs, for total project costs of $2,624,000. The five paths in the network have the following normal times: A–I–K  33 weeks A–F–K 28 weeks A–C–G–J–K 67 weeks B–D–H–J–K 69 weeks B–E–J–K 43 weeks
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  The cheapest activity to crash per week is J at $1,000, which is much less than the savings in indirect and penalty costs of $28,000 per week. Step 3.  Crash activity J by its limit of three weeks because the critical path remains unchanged. The new expected path times are A–C–G–J–K: 64 weeks and B–D–H–J–K: 66 weeks The net savings are 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000. The total project costs are now $2,624,000 - $81,000 = $2,543,000.
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  The cheapest activity to crash per week is J at $1,000, which is much less than the savings in indirect and penalty costs of $28,000 per week. Step 3.  Crash activity J by its limit of three weeks because the critical path remains unchanged. The new expected path times are A–C–G–J–K: 64 weeks and B–D–H–J–K: 66 weeks The net savings are 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000. The total project costs are now $2,624,000 - $81,000 = $2,543,000. Finish K 6  I 15  F 10  C 10  D 10  H 40  J 1   A 12  B 9  Start G 35  E 24
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  The cheapest activity to crash per week is now D at $2,000. Step 3.  Crash D by two weeks. The first week of reduction in activity D saves $28,000 because it eliminates a week of penalty costs, as well as indirect costs. Crashing D by a second week saves only $8,000 in indirect costs because, after week 65, no more penalty costs are incurred. These savings still exceed the cost of crashing D by two weeks. Updated path times are A–C–G–J–K: 64 weeks and B–D–H–J–K: 64 weeks The net savings are $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000. Total project costs are now $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000.
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  The cheapest activity to crash per week is now D at $2,000. Step 3.  Crash D by two weeks. The first week of reduction in activity D saves $28,000 because it eliminates a week of penalty costs, as well as indirect costs. Crashing D by a second week saves only $8,000 in indirect costs because, after week 65, no more penalty costs are incurred. These savings still exceed the cost of crashing D by two weeks. Updated path times are A–C–G–J–K: 64 weeks and B–D–H–J–K: 64 weeks The net savings are $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000. Total project costs are now $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000. Finish K 6  I 15  F 10  C 10  D 8   H 40  J 1   A 12  B 9  Start G 35  E 24
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  Our alternatives are to crash one of the following combinations of activities —(A, B); (A, H); (C, B); (C, H); (G, B); (G, H)—or to crash activity K, which is on both critical paths (J has already been crashed). We consider only those alternatives for which the costs of crashing are less than the potential savings of $8,000 per week. The only viable alternatives are (C, B) at a cost of $7,600 per week and K at $4,000 per week. We choose activity K to crash.
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Finish K 5   I 15  F 10  C 10  D 8   H 40  J 1   A 12  B 9  Start G 35  E 24
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  The only viable alternative at this stage is to crash activities B and C simultaneously at a cost of $7,600 per week. This amount is still less than the savings of $8,000 per week. Step 3.  Crash activities B and C by two weeks, the limit for activity B. Updated path times are A–C–G–J–K: 61 weeks and B–D–H–J–K: 61 weeks The net savings are 2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800. Total project costs are now $2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200.
A Minimum-Cost Schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],Step 2.  The only viable alternative at this stage is to crash activities B and C simultaneously at a cost of $7,600 per week. This amount is still less than the savings of $8,000 per week. Step 3.  Crash activities B and C by two weeks, the limit for activity B. Updated path times are A–C–G–J–K: 61 weeks and B–D–H–J–K: 61 weeks The net savings are 2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800. Total project costs are now $2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200. Finish K 5   I 15  F 10  C 8   D 8   H 40  J 1   A 12  B 7   Start G 35  E 24
A Minimum-Cost Schedule Stage Crash Activity Time Reduction (weeks) Resulting Critical Path(s) Project Duration (weeks) Project Direct Costs, Last Trial ($000) Crash Cost Added ($000) Total Indirect Costs ($000) Total Penalty Costs ($000) Total Project Costs ($000) 0 — — B - D - H - J - K 69 1,992.0 — 552.0 80.0 2,624.0 1 J 3 B - D - H - J - K 66 1,992.0 3.0 528.0 20.0 2,543.0 2 D 2 B - D - H - J - K A - C - G - J - K 64 1,995.0 4.0 512.0 0.0 2,511.0 3 K 1 B - D - H - J - K A - C - G - J - K 63 1,999.0 4.0 504.0 0.0 2,507.0 4 B, C 2 B - D - H - J - K A - C - G - J - K 61 2,003.0 15.2 488.0 0.0 2,506.2
Application 2.3 Indirect project costs = $250 per day and penalty cost = $100 per day for each day the project lasts beyond day 14. Project Activity and Cost Data Activity Normal Time (days) Normal Cost ($) Crash Time (days) Crash Cost ($) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 5 1,000 4 1,200 — B 5 800 3 2,000 — C 2 600 1 900 A, B D 3 1,500 2 2,000 B E 5 900 3 1,200 C, D F 2 1,300 1 1,400 E G 3 900 3 900 E H 5 500 3 900 G
Application 2.3 Direct cost and time data for the activities:  Solution: Original costs: Normal Total Costs =  Total Indirect Costs =  Penalty Cost =  Total Project Costs =  $7,500 $250 per day    21 days = $5,250 $100 per day    7 days = $700 $13,450 Project Activity and Cost Data Activity Crash Cost/Day Maximum Crash Time (days) A 200 1 B 600 2 C 300 1 D 500 1 E 150 2 F 100 1 G 0 0 H 200 2
Application 2.3 Step 1: The critical path is  , and the project duration is B–D–E–G–H 21 days. Step 2: Activity E on the critical path has the lowest cost of crashing ($150 per day). Note that activity G cannot be crashed. Step 3: Reduce the time (crashing 2 days will reduce the project duration to 19 days) and re-calculate costs: Costs Last Trial =  Crash Cost Added =  Total Indirect Costs =  Penalty Cost =  Total Project Cost =  $7,500 $150    2 days = $300 $250 per day    19 days = $4,750 $100 per day    5 days = $500 $13,050 Note that the cost to crash ($250 per day) is less than the combined indirect cost and the penalty cost per day savings ($350).
Application 2.3 Step 4: Repeat until direct costs greater than savings (step 2) Activity H on the critical path has the next lowest cost of crashing ($200 per day).  (step 3) Reduce the time (crashing 2 days will reduce the project duration to 17 days) and re-calculate costs: Costs Last Trial =  Crash Cost Added =  Total Indirect Costs =  Penalty Cost =  Total Project Cost =  $7,500 + $300 (the added crash costs) = $7,800 $200    2 days = $400 $250 per day    17 days = $4,250 $100 per day    3 days = $300 $12,750 Note that the cost to crash ($200 per day) is less than the combined indirect cost and the penalty cost per day savings ($350).
Application 2.3 (step 4) Repeat (step 2) Activity D on the critical path has the next lowest crashing cost ($500 per day).  (step 3) Reduce the time (crashing 1 day will reduce the project duration to 16 days) and re-calculate costs: Costs Last Trial =  Crash Cost Added =  Total Indirect Costs =  Penalty Cost =  Total Project Cost =  $7,800 + $400 (the added crash costs) = $8,200 $500    1 day = $500 $250 per day    16 days = $4,000 $100 per day    2 days = $200 $12,900 which is greater than the last trial. Hence we stop the crashing process. Note that the cost to crash ($500 per day) is greater than the combined indirect cost and the penalty cost per day savings ($350).
Application 2.3 The summary of the cost analysis follows. The recommended completion date is day 17 by crashing activity E by 2 days and activity H by 2 days. Further reductions will cost more than the savings in indirect costs and penalties. The critical path is B – D – E – G – H. Trial Crash Activity Resulting Critical Paths Reduction (days) Project Duration (days) Costs Last Trial Crash Cost Added Total Indirect Costs Total Penalty Costs Total Project Costs 0 — B-D-E-G-H — 21 $7,500 — $5,250 $700 $13,450 1 E B-D-E-G-H 2 19 $7,500 $300 $4,750 $500 $13,050 2 H B-D-E-G-H 2 17 $7,800 $400 $4,250 $300 $12,750
Assessing Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Simulation and Statistical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Statistical Analysis Figure 2.7 a m b Mean Time Beta distribution a m b Mean Time 3 σ 3 σ Area under curve between  a  and  b  is 99.74% Normal distribution
Statistical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],t e  = a  + 4 m  +  b 6 σ 2  = b  –  a 6 2
Calculating Means and Variances ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],a. Calculate the expected time and variance for activity B. b. Calculate the expected time and variance for the other activities in the project.
Calculating Means and Variances ,[object Object],[object Object],Note that the expected time does not equal the most likely time. These will only be the same only when the most likely time is equidistant from the optimistic and pessimistic times. The variance for activity B is t e  =  =  = 9 weeks 7 + 4(8) + 15 6 54 6 σ 2  =  =  = 1.78 15 – 7 6 2 8 6 2
Calculating Means and Variances ,[object Object],Time Estimates (week) Activity Statistics Activity Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) Expected Time ( t e ) Variance ( σ 2 ) A 11 12 13 12 0.11 B 7 8 15 9 1.78 C 5 10 15 10 2.78 D 8 9 16 10 1.78 E 14 25 30 24 7.11 F 6 9 18 10 4.00 G 25 36 41 35 7.11 H 35 40 45 40 2.78 I 10 13 28 15 9.00 J 1 2 15 4 5.44 K 5 6 7 6 0.11
Application 2.4 Bluebird University: activity for sales training seminar Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) Expected Time ( t ) Variance ( σ ) A — 5 7 8 B — 6 8 12 C — 3 4 5 D A 11 17 25 E B 8 10 12 F C, E 3 4 5 G D 4 8 9 H F 5 7 9 I G, H 8 11 17 J G 4 4 4 6.83 0.25 8.33 1.00 4.00 0.11 17.33 5.44 10.00 0.44 4.00 0.11 7.50 0.69 7.00 0.44 11.50 2.25 4.00 0.00
Analyzing Probabilities ,[object Object],[object Object],σ 2  =    (Variances of activities on the critical path) ,[object Object],T E  =  = Expected activity times on the critical path  Mean of normal distribution z  = T  –  T E σ 2  where T  = due date for the project
Calculating the Probability ,[object Object],[object Object],SOLUTION a. The critical path B–D–H–J–K has a length of 69 weeks. From the table in Example 2.4, we obtain the variance of path B–D–H–J–K:  σ 2  = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11. Next, we calculate the  z -value:
Calculating the Probability ,[object Object],Because this is the critical path, there is a 19 percent probability that the project will take longer than 72 weeks. Figure 2.8 Length of critical path Probability of meeting the schedule is 0.8078 Normal distribution: Mean = 69 weeks; σ  = 3.45 weeks Probability of exceeding 72 weeks is 0.1922 Project duration (weeks) 69  72
Calculating the Probability ,[object Object],[object Object],SOLUTION b. From the table in Example 2.4, we determine that the sum of the expected activity times on path A–C–G–J–K is 67 weeks and that  σ 2  = 0.11 + 2.78 + 7.11 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 15.55. The  z -value is The probability is about 0.90 that the length of path A–C–G–J–K will be no greater than 72 weeks.
Application 2.5 The director of the continuing education at Bluebird University wants to conduct the seminar in 47 working days from now. What is the probability that everything will be ready in time? The critical path is and the expected completion time is  T  =  T E  is:  A–D–G–I,  43.17 days. 47 days 43.17 days (0.25 + 5.44 + 0.69 + 2.25) = 8.63 And the sum of the variances for the critical activities is:
Application 2.5 T  = 47 days T E  = 43.17 days And the sum of the variances for the critical activities is: 8.63 Assuming the normal distribution applies, we use the table for the normal probability distribution. Given  z  = 1.30, the probability that activities A–D–G–I can be completed in 47 days or less is 0.9032. =  =  = 1.30 3.83 2.94 47 – 43.17 8.63  z  =  T  –  T E σ 2 
Near-Critical Paths ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monitoring and Controlling Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Project Life Cycle Figure 2.9 Start Finish Resource requirements Time Definition and organization Planning Execution Close out
Monitoring and Controlling Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solved Problem 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solved Problem 1 TABLE 2.2  |  ELECTRIC MOTOR PROJECT DATA Activity Normal Time (days) Normal Cost ($) Crash Time (days) Crash Cost ($) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 4 1,000 3 1,300 None B 7 1,400 4 2,000 None C 5 2,000 4 2,700 None D 6 1,200 5 1,400 A E 3 900 2 1,100 B F 11 2,500 6 3,750 C G 4 800 3 1,450 D, E H 3 300 1 500 F, G
Solved Problem 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Figure 2.10 Start Finish A 4 B 7 C 5 D 6 E 3 F 11 G 4 H 3
Solved Problem 1 ,[object Object],Maximum crash time = Normal time – Crash time = 4 days – 3 days = 1 day Crash cost per day =  =  Crash cost – Normal cost Normal time – Crash time CC – NC NT – CT =  = $300 $1,300  –  $1,000 4 days – 3 days
Solved Problem 1 Activity Crash Cost per Day ($) Maximum Time Reduction (days) A 300 1 B 200 3 C 700 1 D 200 1 E 200 1 F 250 5 G 650 1 H 100 2
Solved Problem 1 TABLE 2.3  |  PROJECT COST ANALYSIS Stage Crash Activity Time Reduction (days) Resulting Critical Path(s) Project Duration (days) Project Direct Costs, Last Trial ($) Crash Cost Added ($) Total Indirect Costs ($) Total Penalty Costs ($) Total Project Costs ($) 0 — — C-F-H 19 10,100 — 3,800 700 14,600 1 H 2 C-F-H 17 10,100 200 3,400 500 14,200 2 F 2 A-D-G-H 15 10,300 500 3,000 300 14,100 B-E-G-H C-F-H
Solved Problem 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solved Problem 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Figure 2.11 Start Finish A B C D E F G
Solved Problem 2 Time Estimate (weeks) Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Immediate Predecessor(s) A 1 4 7 — B 2 6 7 — C 3 3 6 B D 6 13 14 A E 3 6 12 A, C F 6 8 16 B G 1 5 6 E, F
Solved Problem 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],t e  = a  + 4 m  +  b 6 Activity Expected Time (weeks) Variance A 4.0 1.00 B 5.5 0.69 C 3.5 0.25 D 12.0 1.78 E 6.5 2.25 F 9.0 2.78 G 4.5 0.69
Solved Problem 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],Activity Earliest Start (weeks) Earliest Finish (weeks) A 0 0 + 4.0 = 4.0 B 0 0 + 5.5 = 5.5 C 5.5 5.5 + 3.5 = 9.0 D 4.0 4.0 + 12.0 = 16.0 E 9.0 9.0 + 6.5 = 15.5 F 5.5 5.5 + 9.0 = 14.5 G 15.5 15.5 + 4.5 = 20.0
Solved Problem 2 ,[object Object],Activity Latest Start (weeks) Latest Finish (weeks) G 15.5 20.0 F 6.5 15.5 E 9.0 15.5 D 8.0 20.0 C 5.5 9.0 B 0.0 5.5 A 4.0 8.0
Solved Problem 2 Figure 2.12 A 4.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 D 12.0 4.0 8.0 16.0 20.0 E 6.5 9.0 9.0 15.5 15.5 G 4.5 15.5 15.5 20.0 20.0 C 3.5 5.5 5.5 9.0 9.0 F 9.0 5.5 6.5 14.5 15.5 B 5.5 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.5 Finish Start
Solved Problem 2 Start (weeks) Finish (weeks) Activity Earliest  Latest Earliest Latest Slack Critical Path A 0 4.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 No B 0 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 Yes C 5.5 5.5 9.0 9.0 0.0 Yes D 4.0 8.0 16.0 20.0 4.0 No E 9.0 9.0 15.5 15.5 0.0 Yes F 5.5 6.5 14.5 15.5 1.0 No G 15.5 15.5 20.0 20.0 0.0 Yes Path Total Expected Time (weeks) Total Variance A–D 4 + 12 = 16 1.00 + 1.78 = 2.78 A–E–G 4 + 6.5 + 4.5 = 15 1.00 + 2.25 + 0.69 = 3.94 B–C–E–G 5.5 + 3.5 + 6.5 + 4.5 = 20 0.69 + 0.25 + 2.25 + 0.69 = 3.88 B–F–G 5.5 + 9 + 4.5 = 19 0.69 + 2.78 + 0.69 = 4.16
Solved Problem 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],Using the Normal Distribution Appendix, we find the probability of completing the project in 23 weeks or less is 0.9357. Because the length of path B–F–G is close to that of the critical path and has a large variance, it might well become the critical path during the project z  =  =  = 1.52 T  –  T E σ 2  23 – 20 3.88 

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mehmet tanlak - 3

  • 1. Project Management Mehmet TANLAK For Operations Management, 9e by Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra © 2010 Pearson Education PowerPoint Slides by Jeff Heyl
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Diagramming the Network Figure 2.2 S T U S precedes T, which precedes U. AON Activity Relationships S T U S and T must be completed before U can be started .
  • 12. Diagramming the Network Figure 2.2 AON Activity Relationships T U S T and U cannot begin until S has been completed. S T U V U and V can’t begin until both S and T have been completed.
  • 13. Diagramming the Network Figure 2.2 AON Activity Relationships S T U V U cannot begin until both S and T have been completed; V cannot begin until T has been completed. S T V U T and U cannot begin until S has been completed and V cannot begin until both T and U have been completed.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 START START A B B A C D A E, G, H F, I, J K 0 12 9 10 10 24 10 35 40 15 4 6 0 Kramer Stewart Johnson Taylor Adams Taylor Burton Johnson Walker Sampson Casey Murphy Pike Ashton Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH
  • 17. St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 Completion Time Figure 2.3 Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH Finish K 6 I 15 F 10 C 10 H 40 J 4 A 12 B 9 Start G 35 D 10 E 24 Activity IP Time A START 12 B START 9 C A 10 D B 10 E B 24 F A 10 G C 35 H D 40 I A 15 J E, G, H 4 K F, I, J 6
  • 18. St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 Completion Time Figure 2.3 Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH Finish K 6 I 15 F 10 C 10 D 10 H 40 J 4 A 12 B 9 Start G 35 E 24 Path Estimated Time (weeks) A–I–K 33 A–F–K 28 A–C–G–J–K 67 B–D–H–J–K 69 B–E–J–K 43
  • 19. St. John’s Hospital Project Example 2.1 Completion Time Figure 2.3 Activity Immediate Predecessors Activity Times (wks) Responsibility ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT START ORGANIZING and SITE PREPARATION A. Select administrative staff B. Select site and survey C. Select medical equipment D. Prepare final construction plans E. Bring utilities to site F. Interview applicants for nursing and support staff PHYSICAL FACILITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE G. Purchase and deliver equipment H. Construct hospital I. Develop information system J. Install medical equipment K. Train nurses and support staff FINISH Finish K 6 I 15 F 10 C 10 D 10 H 40 J 4 A 12 B 9 Start G 35 E 24 Path Estimated Time (weeks) A–I–K 33 A–F–K 28 A–C–G–J–K 67 B–D–H–J–K 69 B–E–J–K 43
  • 20. Application 2.1 The following information is known about a project Draw the network diagram for this project Activity Activity Time (days) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 7 — B 2 A C 4 A D 4 B, C E 4 D F 3 E G 5 E
  • 21. Application 2.1 Finish G 5 F 3 E 4 D 4 Activity Activity Time (days) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 7 — B 2 A C 4 A D 4 B, C E 4 D F 3 E G 5 E B 2 C 4 Start A 7
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Network Diagram Figure 2.4 K 6 C 10 G 35 J 4 H 40 B 9 D 10 E 24 I 15 Finish Start A 12 F 10 0 9 9 33 9 19 19 59 22 57 12 22 59 63 12 27 12 22 63 69 0 12
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. Network Diagram Figure 2.4 K 6 C 10 G 35 J 4 H 40 B 9 D 10 E 24 I 15 Finish Start A 12 F 10 0 9 9 33 9 19 19 59 22 57 12 22 59 63 12 27 12 22 63 69 0 12 48 63 53 63 59 63 24 59 19 59 35 59 14 24 9 19 2 14 0 9 63 69 S = 36 S = 2 S = 41 S = 2 S = 26 S = 2 S = 0 S = 0 S = 0 S = 0 S = 0
  • 33.
  • 34. Application 2.2 Calculate the four times for each activity in order to determine the critical path and project duration. The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5
  • 35. Application 2.2 Calculate the four times for each activity in order to determine the critical path and project duration. The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5 7 9 9 11 9-7=2 No 7 7 11 11 7-7=0 Yes 19 21 22 24 21-19=2 No 19 19 24 24 19-19=0 Yes 11 11 15 15 11-11=0 Yes 15 15 19 19 15-15=0 Yes
  • 36. Application 2.2 The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 7 9 9 11 9-7=2 No C 4 7 7 11 11 7-7=0 Yes D 4 11 11 15 15 11-11=0 Yes E 4 15 15 19 19 15-15=0 Yes F 3 21 21 22 24 21-19=2 No G 5 19 19 24 24 19-19=0 Yes Start Finish A 7 B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5
  • 37. Application 2.2 The critical path is A–C–D–E–G with a project duration of 24 days Activity Duration Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Earliest Finish (EF) Latest Finish (LF) Slack (LS-ES) On the Critical Path? A 7 0 0 7 7 0-0=0 Yes B 2 7 9 9 11 9-7=2 No C 4 7 7 11 11 7-7=0 Yes D 4 11 11 15 15 11-11=0 Yes E 4 15 15 19 19 15-15=0 Yes F 3 21 21 22 24 21-19=2 No G 5 19 19 24 24 19-19=0 Yes Start Finish A 7 B 2 C 4 D 4 E 4 F 3 G 5
  • 38.
  • 39. Cost-Time Relationships Figure 2.6 Linear cost assumption 8000 — 7000 — 6000 — 5000 — 4000 — 3000 — 0 — Direct cost (dollars) | | | | | | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Time (weeks) Crash cost (CC) Normal cost (NC) (Crash time) (Normal time) Estimated costs for a 2-week reduction, from 10 weeks to 8 weeks 5200
  • 40. Cost-Time Relationships TABLE 2.1 | DIRECT COST AND TIME DATA FOR THE ST. JOHN’S HOSPITAL PROJECT Activity Normal Time (NT) (weeks) Normal Cost (NC)($) Crash Time (CT)(weeks) Crash Cost (CC)($) Maximum Time Reduction (week) Cost of Crashing per Week ($) A 12 $12,000 11 $13,000 1 1,000 B 9 50,000 7 64,000 2 7,000 C 10 4,000 5 7,000 5 600 D 10 16,000 8 20,000 2 2,000 E 24 120,000 14 200,000 10 8,000 F 10 10,000 6 16,000 4 1,500 G 35 500,000 25 530,000 10 3,000 H 40 1,200,000 35 1,260,000 5 12,000 I 15 40,000 10 52,500 5 2,500 J 4 10,000 1 13,000 3 1,000 K 6 30,000 5 34,000 1 4,000 Totals $1,992,000 $2,209,500
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
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  • 50.
  • 51. A Minimum-Cost Schedule Stage Crash Activity Time Reduction (weeks) Resulting Critical Path(s) Project Duration (weeks) Project Direct Costs, Last Trial ($000) Crash Cost Added ($000) Total Indirect Costs ($000) Total Penalty Costs ($000) Total Project Costs ($000) 0 — — B - D - H - J - K 69 1,992.0 — 552.0 80.0 2,624.0 1 J 3 B - D - H - J - K 66 1,992.0 3.0 528.0 20.0 2,543.0 2 D 2 B - D - H - J - K A - C - G - J - K 64 1,995.0 4.0 512.0 0.0 2,511.0 3 K 1 B - D - H - J - K A - C - G - J - K 63 1,999.0 4.0 504.0 0.0 2,507.0 4 B, C 2 B - D - H - J - K A - C - G - J - K 61 2,003.0 15.2 488.0 0.0 2,506.2
  • 52. Application 2.3 Indirect project costs = $250 per day and penalty cost = $100 per day for each day the project lasts beyond day 14. Project Activity and Cost Data Activity Normal Time (days) Normal Cost ($) Crash Time (days) Crash Cost ($) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 5 1,000 4 1,200 — B 5 800 3 2,000 — C 2 600 1 900 A, B D 3 1,500 2 2,000 B E 5 900 3 1,200 C, D F 2 1,300 1 1,400 E G 3 900 3 900 E H 5 500 3 900 G
  • 53. Application 2.3 Direct cost and time data for the activities: Solution: Original costs: Normal Total Costs = Total Indirect Costs = Penalty Cost = Total Project Costs = $7,500 $250 per day  21 days = $5,250 $100 per day  7 days = $700 $13,450 Project Activity and Cost Data Activity Crash Cost/Day Maximum Crash Time (days) A 200 1 B 600 2 C 300 1 D 500 1 E 150 2 F 100 1 G 0 0 H 200 2
  • 54. Application 2.3 Step 1: The critical path is , and the project duration is B–D–E–G–H 21 days. Step 2: Activity E on the critical path has the lowest cost of crashing ($150 per day). Note that activity G cannot be crashed. Step 3: Reduce the time (crashing 2 days will reduce the project duration to 19 days) and re-calculate costs: Costs Last Trial = Crash Cost Added = Total Indirect Costs = Penalty Cost = Total Project Cost = $7,500 $150  2 days = $300 $250 per day  19 days = $4,750 $100 per day  5 days = $500 $13,050 Note that the cost to crash ($250 per day) is less than the combined indirect cost and the penalty cost per day savings ($350).
  • 55. Application 2.3 Step 4: Repeat until direct costs greater than savings (step 2) Activity H on the critical path has the next lowest cost of crashing ($200 per day). (step 3) Reduce the time (crashing 2 days will reduce the project duration to 17 days) and re-calculate costs: Costs Last Trial = Crash Cost Added = Total Indirect Costs = Penalty Cost = Total Project Cost = $7,500 + $300 (the added crash costs) = $7,800 $200  2 days = $400 $250 per day  17 days = $4,250 $100 per day  3 days = $300 $12,750 Note that the cost to crash ($200 per day) is less than the combined indirect cost and the penalty cost per day savings ($350).
  • 56. Application 2.3 (step 4) Repeat (step 2) Activity D on the critical path has the next lowest crashing cost ($500 per day). (step 3) Reduce the time (crashing 1 day will reduce the project duration to 16 days) and re-calculate costs: Costs Last Trial = Crash Cost Added = Total Indirect Costs = Penalty Cost = Total Project Cost = $7,800 + $400 (the added crash costs) = $8,200 $500  1 day = $500 $250 per day  16 days = $4,000 $100 per day  2 days = $200 $12,900 which is greater than the last trial. Hence we stop the crashing process. Note that the cost to crash ($500 per day) is greater than the combined indirect cost and the penalty cost per day savings ($350).
  • 57. Application 2.3 The summary of the cost analysis follows. The recommended completion date is day 17 by crashing activity E by 2 days and activity H by 2 days. Further reductions will cost more than the savings in indirect costs and penalties. The critical path is B – D – E – G – H. Trial Crash Activity Resulting Critical Paths Reduction (days) Project Duration (days) Costs Last Trial Crash Cost Added Total Indirect Costs Total Penalty Costs Total Project Costs 0 — B-D-E-G-H — 21 $7,500 — $5,250 $700 $13,450 1 E B-D-E-G-H 2 19 $7,500 $300 $4,750 $500 $13,050 2 H B-D-E-G-H 2 17 $7,800 $400 $4,250 $300 $12,750
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. Statistical Analysis Figure 2.7 a m b Mean Time Beta distribution a m b Mean Time 3 σ 3 σ Area under curve between a and b is 99.74% Normal distribution
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  • 65. Application 2.4 Bluebird University: activity for sales training seminar Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) Expected Time ( t ) Variance ( σ ) A — 5 7 8 B — 6 8 12 C — 3 4 5 D A 11 17 25 E B 8 10 12 F C, E 3 4 5 G D 4 8 9 H F 5 7 9 I G, H 8 11 17 J G 4 4 4 6.83 0.25 8.33 1.00 4.00 0.11 17.33 5.44 10.00 0.44 4.00 0.11 7.50 0.69 7.00 0.44 11.50 2.25 4.00 0.00
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  • 70. Application 2.5 The director of the continuing education at Bluebird University wants to conduct the seminar in 47 working days from now. What is the probability that everything will be ready in time? The critical path is and the expected completion time is T = T E is: A–D–G–I, 43.17 days. 47 days 43.17 days (0.25 + 5.44 + 0.69 + 2.25) = 8.63 And the sum of the variances for the critical activities is:
  • 71. Application 2.5 T = 47 days T E = 43.17 days And the sum of the variances for the critical activities is: 8.63 Assuming the normal distribution applies, we use the table for the normal probability distribution. Given z = 1.30, the probability that activities A–D–G–I can be completed in 47 days or less is 0.9032. = = = 1.30 3.83 2.94 47 – 43.17 8.63  z = T – T E σ 2 
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74. Project Life Cycle Figure 2.9 Start Finish Resource requirements Time Definition and organization Planning Execution Close out
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  • 76.
  • 77. Solved Problem 1 TABLE 2.2 | ELECTRIC MOTOR PROJECT DATA Activity Normal Time (days) Normal Cost ($) Crash Time (days) Crash Cost ($) Immediate Predecessor(s) A 4 1,000 3 1,300 None B 7 1,400 4 2,000 None C 5 2,000 4 2,700 None D 6 1,200 5 1,400 A E 3 900 2 1,100 B F 11 2,500 6 3,750 C G 4 800 3 1,450 D, E H 3 300 1 500 F, G
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  • 79.
  • 80. Solved Problem 1 Activity Crash Cost per Day ($) Maximum Time Reduction (days) A 300 1 B 200 3 C 700 1 D 200 1 E 200 1 F 250 5 G 650 1 H 100 2
  • 81. Solved Problem 1 TABLE 2.3 | PROJECT COST ANALYSIS Stage Crash Activity Time Reduction (days) Resulting Critical Path(s) Project Duration (days) Project Direct Costs, Last Trial ($) Crash Cost Added ($) Total Indirect Costs ($) Total Penalty Costs ($) Total Project Costs ($) 0 — — C-F-H 19 10,100 — 3,800 700 14,600 1 H 2 C-F-H 17 10,100 200 3,400 500 14,200 2 F 2 A-D-G-H 15 10,300 500 3,000 300 14,100 B-E-G-H C-F-H
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  • 83.
  • 84. Solved Problem 2 Time Estimate (weeks) Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Immediate Predecessor(s) A 1 4 7 — B 2 6 7 — C 3 3 6 B D 6 13 14 A E 3 6 12 A, C F 6 8 16 B G 1 5 6 E, F
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  • 88. Solved Problem 2 Figure 2.12 A 4.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 D 12.0 4.0 8.0 16.0 20.0 E 6.5 9.0 9.0 15.5 15.5 G 4.5 15.5 15.5 20.0 20.0 C 3.5 5.5 5.5 9.0 9.0 F 9.0 5.5 6.5 14.5 15.5 B 5.5 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.5 Finish Start
  • 89. Solved Problem 2 Start (weeks) Finish (weeks) Activity Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Slack Critical Path A 0 4.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 No B 0 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 Yes C 5.5 5.5 9.0 9.0 0.0 Yes D 4.0 8.0 16.0 20.0 4.0 No E 9.0 9.0 15.5 15.5 0.0 Yes F 5.5 6.5 14.5 15.5 1.0 No G 15.5 15.5 20.0 20.0 0.0 Yes Path Total Expected Time (weeks) Total Variance A–D 4 + 12 = 16 1.00 + 1.78 = 2.78 A–E–G 4 + 6.5 + 4.5 = 15 1.00 + 2.25 + 0.69 = 3.94 B–C–E–G 5.5 + 3.5 + 6.5 + 4.5 = 20 0.69 + 0.25 + 2.25 + 0.69 = 3.88 B–F–G 5.5 + 9 + 4.5 = 19 0.69 + 2.78 + 0.69 = 4.16
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  • 91.