Biocomplexity Decisionmaking 03 07 09

Biocomplexity
Decisionmaking
Innovative approaches to the
inter-connected challenges
of
Climate destabilization,
Species extinction and
Mass poverty

2009 Pew Annual Meeting
Programs in Biomedical
Sciences

Michael Totten
mtotten@conservation.org

www.nsf.org

BIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and
physical interactions of living organisms with their environment.

New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org

4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven

EXTINCTION SPASM
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE

FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY

POST 9/11 VULNERABILITY DISRUPTION
First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

SEVERE AIR & WATER POLLUTION, DISLOCATED REFUGEES

Climate Solution Resources

www.climateprogress.org/

www.realclimate.org/ www.aclimateforlife.org/

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere

rs
u
o
h
4
4
ry
e
v
e

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

$2.5 trillion
almost a quarter of
the US economy
is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since

weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering

A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the
atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of
hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real
threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be
determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed:

quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be
made with the potentially-huge payoffs,
small probabilities, and significant costs
involved in countering terrorism, building
anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of
climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that
the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of
national income on the cost of a clean environment.quot;
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint

2008
now 45GtCO2

2050
reduce to
<10 GtCO2

2100
reduce to
<4 GtCO2

Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-
based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Century of Global Economic Growth Compared with Today

/y r
yr 3% x
/
2% 19
7x

GAIN Science & Technologies

GENETICS AUTOROBOTICS

NANOTECH
INFORMATICS

The Virtuous Cycle
of Green Innovation

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
oil gas coal forests
geothermal Assumes:
agriculture
1% 2% 1% 5%
biomass1% 5%
10% 1) Global
economic
bldgs EE
growth 2-3%
15%
per year all
wind century long;
15%
2) sustaining
3% per year
efficiency
gains;
transport EE
15%
3) Combined
solar carbon cap &
15% carbon tax
industry EE
15%

“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in
Billion tons CO2
mitigation services available in
25
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
20
annually ; and saving well-off
nations billions of dollars.
15

10 US
GHG
5
levels
0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
14 million hectares burned each year
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

6th largest extinction – 1000 times natural background rate
1800 species populations extirpated every hour

Direct yields from tropical lands
converted to farming, including
proceeds from the sale of timber:
equivalent to less than $1 per
ton of CO2 in many areas
currently losing forest, and
usually well below $5 per ton.
Sir Nicholas Stern
Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately
available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options.
Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 by up to 130 ppm this century.

CONTRASTING ACTIONS:
$45 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.
The same amount of money would prevent the release of 6 times
this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
Geological storage (CCS) vs
mitigation cost annually
Ecological storage (REDD)
(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
Carbon Mitigation Cost
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50
$45
~$100 billion
$40
~3 ¢ per kWh
$35
$30
$25 Reduced Emissions
$20 Deforestation & Degradation
(REDD)
$15
$10
~$18 billion
$5
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$- 0
CCS REDD
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
$7.50 per ton CO2
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions
1/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
Tropical Deforestation 2007
30 million acres burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions A win-
win-win
outcome

480 gallons per year 4.8 tons GHG emissions
= per year
(25 mpg x 12,000 miles per year)

$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)
Adds 8.5 cents per gallon

Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring
wilderness, while helping people, species & climate

Ecuador collaborative offset projects
Preserve habitat for threatened
Andean Spectacled Bear,
Howler Monkey, and Northern
Naked Tailed Armadillo

FCCB
Forest Restoration
for Climate, Community and Biodiversity

Various Types of Private Tropical Forest Financial Instruments

John O. Niles, Driving Private Capital to Conserve Tropical Forests: Current Frameworks & Policy Ideas, 2009 Forest Carbon Finance
Summit, Harvard University’s Program on International Financial Systems, 03-04-09, www.law.harvard.edu/programs/pifs/fcfsbb2009.html

Bioprospecting biological wealth
Using biotechnological tools
One-quarter all medical drugs
used in developed world from
plants.
Cortisone and first oral
contraceptives derived from
Central American yam species
Pacific yew in western US yielded
anti-cancer drug taxol
Vincristine from the Rosy
Periwinkle in Madagascar
Drug to prevent blood clotting
from snake venom
Active ingredient aspirin
synthesized from willow trees.

Bioprospecting biological wealth
Using biotechnological tools
Biomolecules prospected from
different bioresources for
pesticidal, therapeutic and other
agriculturally important
compounds

Biomolecules for Industrial and
Medicinal Use
Novel Genes/Promoters To Address
Biotic And Abiotic Stress
Genes for Transcription Factors
Metabolic Engineering Pathways
Nutritional Enhancement
Bioavailability of Elements
Microbial Biodiversity

Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting
Forest Area No. of EndemicSimpson et WTP given a
Biodiversity ``Hot Spot''
(1,000 ha) Plant Species al. WTP hit, rho=.001
Western Ecuador 250 2188 $21 $580
Southwestern Sri Lanka 70 500 $17 $2,562
New Caledonia 150 790 $12 $1,414
Madagascar 1,000 2911 $7 $94
Western Ghats of India 800 1620 $5 $237
Philippines 800 1582 $5 $240
Atlantic Coast of Brazil 2,000 3750 $4 $26
Uplands of Western Amazonia 3,500 3846 $3 $14
Tanzania 600 528 $2 $307
Cape Floristic Province of South Africa 8,900 6278 $2 $1
Peninsular Malaysia 2,600 1624 $1 $73
Southwestern Australia 5,470 2831 $1 $18
Ivory Coast 400 194 $1 $236
Northern Borneo 6,400 2674 $1 $17
Eastern Himalayas 5,300 2205 $1 $27
Colombian Choco 7,200 2303 $1 $19
Central Chile 4,600 1450 $1 $44
California Floristic Province 24,600 2136 $0 $6
Sean B. Cash. 2002. quot;The Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting,quot; abstract published in Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 31:2.

Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting
WTP Given Expected WTP for the
Biodiversity ``Hot Spot'' 2% Habitat Loss Last Hectare
(rho = 0.001) (rho=0)
Western Ecuador $673 $1,479,947
Southwestern Sri Lanka $2,947 $465,027
New Caledonia $1,628 $607,524
Madagascar $109 $1,392,597
Western Ghats of India $274 $819,456
Philippines $278 $800,133
Atlantic Coast of Brazil $30 $1,508,540
Uplands of Western Amazonia $16 $1,345,077
Tanzania $353 $286,998
Cape Floristic Province of South Africa $1 $1,738,829
Peninsular Malaysia $84 $611,717
Southwestern Australia $21 $885,702
Ivory Coast $271 $116,640
Northern Borneo $20 $804,217
Eastern Himalayas $31 $695,363
Colombian Choco $22 $672,580
Central Chile $51 $473,654
California Floristic Province $7 $458,829
Sean B. Cash. 2002. quot;The Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting,quot; abstract published in Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 31:2.

Mass
Poverty
More Absolute Poor than
any time in Human History

Economic Pyramid

Mature markets:
>$20,000/yr Emerging markets:
75-100 million people >$2,000-20,000/yr
1.75 billion people

Bottom of Pyramid
Survival markets:
<$2,000/yr
4 billion people

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from
drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million
children reach adulthood stunted for good.


4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost
billions of dollars in lost income to the poor


A new water disinfector for the
developing world’s poor
DESIGN CRITERIA
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp
disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters,
264 gallons, or 1 m3)
Dr Ashok Gadgil, LBL, inventor
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water
• Reliable, Mature components
• Can treat unpressurized water
• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
• Low maintenance: 4x per year
• No overdose risk
• Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,

WaterHealth Intl device
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf

WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options


WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad
range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as
Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20
liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.


Bottom of the Pyramid Growth

Creating a World
Without Poverty

Social Business and the
future of Capitalism

Three to four $100 microfinance loans enable most
Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power
(Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

This is an unique combination of
Grameen Bank and Grameen
Shakti’s integrated effort for
poverty reduction.
• Solar Photovoltaic (PV) System
is being used for mobile phone
charging.
• Telephone lady earns US$100
per month from this pay phone.
• The system also help her
children for their education.

RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES
Brick house construction is still widely used in many
Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings
rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of
land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year,
and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.

The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal
for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing
chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of
premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

DOZEN CRITERIA
Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system

1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
2. Safe through the entire life cycle?
3. Clean through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?
10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
11. Robust experience curve for reducing
negative externalities and amplifying
positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities?
12. Uninteresting target for malicious
disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

Uninteresting military target
A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves
Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Fails gracefully, not catastro
Promote
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS

USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75
ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings

Envision 18 million coal railcars
that would wrap around the world
seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil
supertanker shipments per year.

Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

About $800 billion per year (at 8% of $10 trillion U.S. economy)

100 years of Cumulative Energy Costs at 2.5%/yr GDP Growth
■USA $355 trillion (out of total of $4,444 trillion GNP)
■GLOBAL $1,422 trillion (out of total $17,774 trillion GWP)

200
1970 6

end-use
bldg scale recycled
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
ind cogen efficiency
cogen cogen
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

end-use
bldg scale recycled
CC ind
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
cogen cogen

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar
spent on electrical services

end-use
bldg scale recycled
CC ind
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
cogen cogen

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –
113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.

SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800
TW-yrs). Save >$150 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.

Envision eliminating the need this century for:

AND 2,500 giant AND 1,674 AND 4.25
3.5 billion
offshore oil large nuclear million LNG
coal rail
platforms. reactors.
road cars. tanker shipments.

KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING

Aligning utility and customer financial
interests to capture the vast pool of end-use
efficiency, onsite and distributed energy and
water service opportunities.

Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins Ralph Cavanagh

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to
harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity 165 GW
Coal
Consumption
Power
New York Plants
California
[EPPs]
Californian’s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family

Utility’s Earnings Go Up even
as Revenues Go Down
Customers’ Bills Go Down
even as Rates Go Up

$1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

CFL factories displace Powerplants

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million
CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will
produce lighting services sufficient to displace several
billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments
used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All:
Supplier Chain Factories & Products

Efficiency Outcomes
Demand Facts
2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal
Industrial electric motor systems
to 1/4th all coal plants to be built
consume 40% of electricity
through 2030 worldwide.
worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in
China – over 7 trillion kWh per
$240 billion direct savings per decade.
year.

$200 to $400 billion benefits per
Retrofit savings of 30%, New
decade in avoided emissions of GHGs,
savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.
SO2 and NOx.

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive
Support SEEEM (Standards
market transformation strategy to promote efficient
for Energy Efficiency of
industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Electric Motor Systems)

ZERO NET ENERGY
GREEN BUILDINGS

The Costs and
Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings,
Public library – North Carolina A Report to
California’s
Sustainable
Building Task
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700
per m2 net
present value
Oberlin College
Ecology Center,
Heinz Foundation
Ohio
Green Building, PA

High-E Windows displacing gas pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.

Avoided Emissions & Savings
each China Efficiency Power Plant
Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP)
Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)
(1.8 billion kWh per year)
Eliminates 7,000 railroad car shipments of coal each year
Avoids burning 700,000 tons coal
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx
Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2
Avoids toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals
Avoids 70,000 tons/year of sludge waste
Saves 45 billion gallons waters
Accrues $67.5 million annual savings
Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year
And generates several times more jobs per $ of investment
Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development,
JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT
T

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on
roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of
buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of
new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of
total US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current electricity
could be supplied with PV systems
built in the “brown-fields”— the
estimated 2 million hectares of
abandoned industrial sites that
exist in our nation’s cities.

Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Global Water Consumption
• Humanity consumes half of
global freshwater flow
5,235

• No major river in the world
is without existing or
planned hydroelectric dams
Increasing freshwater use
3,973
Total annual water • 2/3 of the freshwater
withdrawal historical
flowing to the oceans is
& projected, in cubic
controlled by dams
kilometers
1,382

Yet….
579

1950 2000 2025
1900 Clark, Robin & Jannet King, The Water Atlas, New Press, 2004.

Immense Water Shortages

projected population
10 billion
• 1 billion people without safe 4-5 billion

water total population May live in
countries
6 billion
that are
0.5 billion
• 4 billion yet to be born will need chronically
lived in short of
countries water
additional freshwater in decades chronically
short of
to come water

Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, and P. R. Ehrlich, 1996, Human appropriation of renewable fresh water, Science 271:785-
2000 2050
788, www.sciencemag.org/; Gleick PH, et al. 2003, The world's water 2002–2003, www.pacinst.org/; Jackson, Robert
B., et al., Water in a Changing World, Issues in Ecology, Technical Report, Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp.
1027–1045, Ecological Society of America, www.esapubs.org/

Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity

William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.

Immense Water Waste

The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500
trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually
WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003

Soft Water Path
More productive, Less cost, Less damage

Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to
irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation
can waste as much as 80% of the water.
Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and
artificially low water prices, often unconnected to
the amount of water used.
Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops
such as cotton can mean water savings of up to
80% compared to conventional flood irrigation
systems, but these techniques are out of reach
for most small farmers.
Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of
the world’s irrigated area.

Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the
Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/

Reverse Osmosis (RO) & Cogeneration
(CHP) Synergism for Clean Water
China’s total wastewater discharges annually
exceed 60 km3,(16 trillion gallons), and less than
1/7th treated as of the late 1990s.

600 million Chinese have water supplies that are
contaminated by animal and human waste.

Harnessing 30 GW of CHP in cities & industrial
facilities could operate RO technologies to
purify these wastewaters, while also providing
ancillary energy services like space and water
heating & cooling.

Desalination of wastewater has double benefits:
reduces contaminated discharges directly into
rivers, and economically expands city
freshwater supplies rather than importing
remote water resources.

Reverse Osmosis (RO) of Wastewater

Reverse Osmosis estimates
considered valid for China today
ranges from a cost of $0.60 per
m3 (1000 liters) for brackish and
wastewater desalination to $1
per m3 for seawater desalination
by RO.

Extrapolating from technological
trends, and the promise of
ongoing innovations in lower-
cost, higher performance
membranes, seawater
desalination costs may decline
to $0.30 per m3 before 2025.

RO of Wastewater into Clean Water

For comparison,
China’s water
prices are more
than $0.60/m3 in
Tianjin and Dalian,
and the price of
urban water
supply in Beijing is
$0.72 per m3.

This RO plant in Ashkelon, Israel, turns out 100
million m3 of fresh water/yr, at $0.53 cents per m3,
the cheapest ever by a desalination facility.

Global Wired Mesh Resources

http://www.shirky.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
www.wikinomics.com/
The_Wealth_of_Networks
And incredible video at:
And incredible video at:
http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/
www.youtube.com/watc
855937/
h?v=NgYE75gkzkM

5000 days ago Pre-Web
Pre-Commercial Internet

“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web”

collective
intelligence

published
content
published user user
content generated generated
content content

45 million global users 1 billion+ global users

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees,
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than
the Encyclopedia Britannica,
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer
editors and content authors,
Translating content into 150+ languages, and
Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus

Large-scale distributed
work-force projects are
impractical in theory,
but doable in reality.

http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/

100 million hours to create Wikipedia – same as
hours Americans watch TV ads each weekend.
The Internet-connected population worldwide
watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo
oking-for-the-mouse.html
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per
year worth of peer participation.

Web3.0+
Semantically-linked RW web
1 trillion sites Collective
intelligence
Smart Grid

published User generated
content content

3 billion global users
2010-2012

5000 days ago Pre-Web
5000 days from now Global Cloud Network
Pre-Commercial Internet

Classifying user-generated information
where every click is a datum

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Gathering Data
& Harvesting
Collective
Intelligence

A user interacts with items, which
have associated metadata


Ways users provide valuable
information through their interactions


Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:
Prevent Climate Catastrophe
Avert Mass Species Extinction
Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being

Sun Data Transmission Rate
EVERY SECOND, the sun produces 400 trillion TW
more energy than human civilizations have
ever produced in history.

Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms
continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar
panel locations.

“Accordion”-structured Solar PV Finance
Compensation for power at retail
electric rates
• Federal & State Tax credits
• Financing, leasing, and
depreciation options
• Utility Net-metering options
and/or rate-based incentives
• Building credits for
architectural applications
• Willingness to pay for clean
power and innovation
• Quality of solar resource and
customer load match
• Progressive state government,
regulatory, and utility support.
Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing
PVs are cost-effective at $6 to $7 per watt.
on Markets that Really Shine, 2002, www.nrel.gov/

LEED Certified Green Buildings
CA

GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

Complete the Streets
A Complete Street is safe, comfortable and
convenient for travel via automobile, foot,
bicycle, and transit.

www.completestreets.org

Portland Oregon 1990
Bike lanes encourage bike commuting
Black lines …Colors show
show 1990 1990 mode
bikeway splits
network...
(by census tract)

Bike Commute
Mode Split
0 - 2%
2 - 3%
3 - 5%
5 - 8%
8 - 10%
City of Portland
10+%
Dept. of Transportation

Portland Oregon 2000
Bike lanes encourage bike commuting
Black lines
show 2000 …Colors show
bikeway 2000 mode
network... splits
(by census tract)

Bike Commute
Mode Split
0 - 2%
2 - 3%
3 - 5%
5 - 8%
8 - 10%
City of Portland
10+%
Dept. of Transportation

Success

Complete canopy closure
Trees planted sufficiently apart in a
planting strip 10 feet wide; this spacing
allowed for the crowns of individual trees
to touch, encouraging development of a
more natural upright form; The 10' wide
planting strip allowed the trunk flare to
develop appropriately State College, Pennsylvania

Saint Augustine, Florida
Seattle, Washington

Convergences & Emergences

Vehicle-to-Grid

Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet

PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize
large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power
with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for
wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating
reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J.
Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33
miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx
nationwide (from higher coal generation).
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and
Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing

Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Wind & Solar experts

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND
NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint
6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area
37,500 mi2

Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40%

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about
70% of Great Plains land area, it
contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross
Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in
American history for Great Plains
rural communities, while also
enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie
ecosystems

How?

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits
non-wind farm

windpower farm

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
$0 $60
govt. subsidy
$200 $0
windpower royalty
$50 $64
farm commodity revenues
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil
carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from
selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands --
which naturally co-
evolved together for
millennia -- generating a
potential revenue stream
from marketing high-
value organic, free-range
beef.

Also More Resilient
to Climate-triggered
Droughts

Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha
of land may be required for
agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium
growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens
intact ecosystems and biodiversity-
rich habitats.

FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY

COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS

WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS

ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - LAND, FOOD & WATER

Presentations & Publications by
Michael P Totten

www.slideshare.net/mptotten/slideshows

www.scribd.com/mtotten6756

Biocomplexity Decisionmaking 03 07 09

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