2. Migration, urban development and
settlement: global trends and possible
lessons for Moscow
Michael Keith, 5th December 2013 ,
Strelka Institute,
Moscow Urban Forum

3. Migration, urban dvelopment and
settlement:
1. Introduction
2. The consequences of migration
externalities?What difference does this make?
3. How does it make us think about the city
differently?
4. Conclusions: lessons for Moscow
5. Global conslusions: trade offs and principles
Based on Michael Keith (2013) ‘The Great Migration:Urban
Aspirations by in Glaeser, E. (ed) Rethinking Cities Washington DC:
World Bank

5. 1. Introduction

6. “What will be remembered about the twenty-first century, more than anything else except perhaps
the effects of a changing climate, is the great, and final, shift of human population out of rural,
agricultural life and into cities. We will end this century as a wholly urban species.” Doug
Saunders, 2010
By 2025
• 225 cities in China will have one million people living in them
(Europe has 35 today)
• 350 million people will be added to China’s urban population – more
than the population of today’s United States
By 2030
• 1 billion people will live in China’s cities
•
India: By 2030
– 68 cities with population more than 1
million, up from 42 today (Europe has 35)
– 590 million people will live in India’s cities
– $1.2 trillion capital investment necessary to
meet projected demand

7. Raj Thackeray and Bihari migrants in
Mumbai
European Islamophobia

8. Welfare externalities, migration, city
governance
• Spatial mismatch of migration
externalities
• Temporal mismatch of migration
externalities
• The normative dimension of
externalities
“Are you willing to pay one million HK dollars
every 18 minutes to take care of mainland children
born in Hong Kong?”
“Hong Kongers have had enough!”

9. Migration, metropolis, and the future of the city
• Economic imperatives of migration
• Economic costs of migration: migration
externalities
• 40% of Fortune 500 companies started
by migrants or their children
• Managing inclusive urban change:
competitiveness, liveability, resiliency,
and social inclusion
• The problems of populist opposition
• Differences of migration streams of
skilled, unskilled, irregular, family,
forced, students

10. 2. The consequences of migration externalities?

11. Ed Glaeser
• “Our best plan for growth is to set our cities free”
• “Our cities are productive because they magnify
humankind’s greatest asset: our ability to learn from
the people around us. That asset will only become
more important in the years ahead, as innovation
becomes ever more important”
(Glaeser, 2011)

12. Externalities and the challenges of the
city commons
Nobel laureate identified 4 key questions in situations of migration related
change, social heterogeneity and intergenerational obligation
• - Is there general agreement on the rules related to who is included as a
member with both benefits and responsibilities?
• - Do the members have a shared understanding of what their mutual
responsibilities are as well as the formulae used for distribution of
benefits?
• - Are these rules considered legitimate and fair?
• - How are the rules transmitted from one generation to the next or to
those who migrate into the group? (Ostrom 2009:5)

13. • Analytically: the boundaries between ‘law’ and
‘economics’ in the management of migration
externalities. Implications for analytical and
normative social science.
• Practically: combining forms of technocratic skills in
shaping the city that is yet to come: value capture,
planning, architecture, security, rule, resilience

14. 3. How does it make us conceptualise urban change
differently?
Migrant urbanisms: combinations and exemplifications

15. Shenzhen speed and the demons of density?
Upscaling Shenzhen
• From 200-300,000 in villages in 1978
to city of 18 million or so today
• By the year 2000, Shenzhen was
ranked nationally in China: fourth in
gross domestic product (GDP) among
Chinese large and medium size cities,
third in local fiscal income, first in total
export and import value, first in per
capita GDP, first in per capita
productivity
• From sanlai yibu (three imports and
one compensation) to moving
upmarket

16. The ‘floating population’ and urban China
• The nature of the hukou,
• The floating population
liudong renkou 流动人口
• At least two circuits of
migration,
• Geographical ranges of
migration
• Rural and urban property
rights

17. Migrant dwelling – the cheng zhong cun
• Villages in City (cheng zhong
cun)
• Residential handshake
apartments
• Nascent democratic
arrangements
• The cuns as joint stock
companies
• The dynamism of the cun

18. Chengzhongcun ‘villages in the city‘ migrant
‘handshake apartments’ woshou fang 握
手房

22. Special economic zones and the
Shenzhen cheng zhong cun
• “Their main livelihood, as a
villager puts it, has shifted
from cultivating crops
(gengtian) to to cultivating
real estate (genguru)”
Siu, 2007, 331

23. Da Fen Cun

27. Chengzhongcun specialisation, stock companies differential
migrant integration and mediating welfare externalities
• Guan Lan – FDI negotiations
• Da Fen – oil panting city
• Xia Sha – specialism moving up
value chain, up market
• Scale, rule and czc: future planning
in Shenzhen
• Urban dynamics and city, district
(qu), cheng zhong cun relations
• Differential incorporation
• Metropolitan markets and
hierarchies
AND THE FLEXIBLE CITY
civillagety

28. “Solving Poor People’s Housing
Problem is Difficult”
Economy Housing; “Solving
Poor People’s Housing
Problem is Difficult. I, Du Pu,
Have Thought About It for
Over One Thousand Years.
Today, Finally It Will Come
True. This is Great!”
(Yuan Meng, 2006-08-15, China
News Network)

29. Variations in geographical scale differences and
metropolitan governance challenges: formalising
the informal
• Neighbourhood level and
churn eg Kumkapi, Istanbul
• Gecekondu - from informality
to formalisation
• Santiago – informal
settlements and formal
housebuilding

30. Strategic exceptionalism, inclusive migrant presence,
zoning and common pool resources: Belo Horizonte,
Brazil to tomorrow’s Texas?
• Brazil’s special zones of
social interest, mid 1980s
• Participatory voice and its
limits
• Texan colonias on Mexico-US
border

31. Scale jumping – Mumbai, Phnom Penh, Washington
• National Slum Dwellers (2 million
members) directly lobbying World
Bank re Mumbai transport
infrastructure development loan and
resettlement
• Phnom Penh – Solidarity for the
Urban Poor Federation and 2011
evictions from Boeung Kak lake
(World Bank $50-70 million loan
withheld)
• Breaking the analytial boundary
between international and national
migration

32. London scale: growing another city and
migration governance

35. Migrant rights and community belonging: policy trade
offs and accommodating London’s new city?
• Between recognition and redistribution
• Between deserving and undeserving poor
• Between the queue and the calculus of
need
• The pernicious influence of ‘liberal elites’
• Invisibility and irregularity - irregular
numbers in Londonbetween 184 and 425,
000 (Gordon et al; 2009, 51)

36. Governance challenges and temporalities of
migration settlement
• Arrival: and networks v programmes –
skilled labour markets and property
market effects
• Settlement and response
• Transnational and translocal links:
Bangladesh in London
• Transition from source to destination –
Athens, Naples, Istanbul, Cairo
• Challenging static / dynamic or
synchronic / diachronic ways of thinking

37. 4. Lessons for Moscow and conclusions
Urban form and the migrant status
Propiska (“record” ) legacies
place of residence / internal passports under
Soviet law from 1932 onwards (antecedents
in Tsarist Russia, when residency permits
were used to tie serfs to the land; propiska
system came into effect during the height of
Stalin’s programmes of industralisation and
collectivisation. Rgistration and recording the
movement of people within the Soviet Union
Skilled migrants and : (1) full Muscovite status;
(2) conditional subjects; and (3) resident
participants.
!
!

38. 4. Lessons for Moscow and conclusions
Urban form and the periphery
• Moscow rapid growth (1939 4 million,
1979 8 million, present 12 million)
Microrayons of the periphery (standardised
housing regions)
• Socialist suburbanisation
• New urban periphery: challenges of post
socialist urban peripheries

39. 5. Global conclusion: 1. Subject making and
metropolitan trade offs
• Subject making and migrant urbanisms
• Trades offs of
– Neighbourhood solidarity and permeability (as in
London)
– Land zoning and creativity (as in Belo Horizonte)
– Migrant rights and labour market flexibilities
– Rationing resources and welfare trade offs
– The interests of the history of the urban present and the
interests of the city yet to come

40. 5. Global conclusion 2: Municipal governance
and principles of municipal migrant integration
United Kingdom Commission on Integration and Cohesion , 2007
1. Shared futures; a sense of becoming over being; shared identifies looking
forward that recognise diverse histories and identities looking backwards
2. A notion of citizenship that is fit for purpose for the 21st century and that
accommodates different geographical scales of local, regional, national and
transnational rights and responsibilities
3. An ethics of hospitality that recognises the value of the stranger and the
newcomer within a framework of mutuality and civility
4. A sense of visible social justice that appeals not only to equality of opportunity
and outcome but also to transparency of the decision making process