Summary of the main causes of population shrinkage worldwide in the post-industrial era

1. ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN FACTORS THAT LEAD TO LEAVE TOWNS
FUTURE TREDS, REGARDING CURRENT POPULATION DECLINING AREAS
Francisca Molina
24 / 04 / 2013

2. In the past two centuries, urban growth has
increased at a rapid pace, mainly driven by
the demographic impact of industrialization.
Besides urban growth, effects of
industrialization have likewise intensified
urban shrinkage (decrease).
Hashima
Chernobyl
Prypiat
Detroit
San Zhi, Taipei (Taiwan)
Birao (Africa Central)
REPOSITORY OF
GHOST CITIES,
LOST TOWNS AND
REMOTE SETTLEMENTS
ANCIENT VS. PRESENT
LOCATIONS
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3. Cities of the industrial age have:
 experienced unprecedented economic
crises followed by waves of out-migration;
 suffered from violent destruction, made
possible by the mechanization of war;
 they have been drained by
suburbanization driven by an industrialized
building sector and increasing private car
ownership;
 they have undergone processes of
deindustrialization followed by losses of
workplaces and population.
INTRODUCTION
KEY WORDS:
SHRINKING CITIES-SUBURBANIZATION-DEINDUSTRIALIZATION- URBAN GROWTH
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4. Factors of Abandonments of
Settlements around the World
• WORLDWIDE EXEMPLES
• MOST RELEVANT CAUSES OF SHRINKING CITIES AND
ABANDONEMENT

5. ◦ Considered Unforseeable
◦ Earthquakes
◦ Unstable slopes
◦ Forseeable IN THE LONG
TERM by climate change
mitigation
◦ Floods
◦ Hurricanes (Katrina)
◦ Stormy coasts
◦ Volcanoes (Monserrat)
ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS
The Caribbean island
of St. Montserrat,
buried in 1995
We are entering an era
where the potential for an
environmentally migration
of disasters is rising
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6. Human or Antropogenic Factors
INDUSTRIALISATION
◦ Leveraging [obtaining] of
resources
◦ Mining & Exploitation
◦ Resource Depletion
(i.e. Coal)
◦ De-Industrialisation
[decline of Capitalism?]
TERRITORY [Land Property]
◦ War Conflicts [devastation]
◦ [unsustainable] development
◦ Housing Oversupply [soaring
housing prices or artificial land
boom]
REPOSITORY OF GHOST CITIES, LOST TOWNS AND REMOTE SETTLEMENTS6

7. abandonement by
NUCLEAR DISASTERS
FACTOR: EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES
1986 at the
Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant
in Ukraine
(then officially Ukrainian SSR)

8. NUCLEAR DISASTERS
FORSEEABLE OR
UNFORSEEABLE?
Prypiat City
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9. abandonement by
1. RESOURCE HARVESTING [OBTENTION]
2. DEPLETION OF NATURAL RESOURCES [SHORTAGE]
Hashima - Gunkanjima
(軍艦島)
As coal became obsolete in 1960s Japan, the mines on the island were shut down

10. Harvesting gold or diamonds
ACTUAL LOCATION
FACTOR:
LEVERAGING OF
RESOURCES
• Rush diamond drilling
reflects the wealth
• By German miners who
sought their fortunes
there
German imperial gov.
jealous
Against others to get their
loot (diamonds)

11. 1959- one of the most
densely populated cities with
more than 5,000 inhabitants
HASHIMA:
ABANDONED ISLAND
OFF THE COAST OF
MACAO
835 people
lived on a
square meter
and a half of
land per
person.
SKYFALL SHOOTING
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12. abandonement by
PROCESSES OF DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION

13. With its dependence and traditional
center of the automotive industry
(companies based General Motors, Ford
and Chrysler), the Detroit area is more
vulnerable to economic cycles than most
large cities.
‘Swiss cheese’ pattern of
neighbourhood abandonment
800,000 out-migrants since
1950s;
In red colour:
Surface parking lots
and underutilized
demolished building
sites shown in red.
ACTUAL LOCATION:
DETROIT-MOTOR CITY
FACTOR:
DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION
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14. A rise in car manufacturing using robot
technology, inexpensive labor in other parts
of the world, and increased competition
has led to a transformation of certain types
of jobs in the region.
 Economy is currently in a
prolonged dead spiral:
Houses for close, then
abandoned,
neighbourhoods died.
 Accelerated by recession.
Deindustrialisation.
 Increasing
unemployment rate in
the metropolitan Detroit
 Recently local
government seeks to
demolish abandoned
homes, re-zone land use
ACTUAL LOCATION:
DETROIT-MOTOR CITY
FACTOR:
DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION
Ruins of civilization – A dying city.
Listed as the most dangerous city in
USA
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15. reports that a recent landmark survey has found
that a third of Detroit’s residential parcels are
either vacant lots or abandoned homes.
Results portray a city of
contrasts: deep in distress in
many areas, but surprisingly
strong in others.
The survey, found more than
30,000 vacant residential
structures, with more than
10,000 of them open to
trespass and in dangerous
condition.
ACTUAL LOCATION:
DETROIT-MOTOR CITY
FACTOR:
DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION
John Gallagher, Detroit Free Press
results provided by the Detroit Data Collaborative
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16. Solutions?
to do something about the city’s plan to formally abandon these neighborhoods by
turning them into something more fun and constructive
http://www.digitaltrends.com/lifestyle/abandoned-parts-of-detroit-may-be-turned-into-a-zombie-theme-park/
ABANDONED
PARTS OF
DETROIT MAY BE
TURNED INTO A
ZOMBIE THEME
PARK!!!
That should give you a taste of what the show is like
Detroit Dry Docks complex
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17. ABANDONEMENT BY WAR CONFLICTS
AND HISTORICAL MEMORIES
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18. But in 2007 came to the town rebels
brought violence and destruction against
government troops, leaving Birao almost
completely burned to the ground.
Only a few years ago
Birao served as the capital
of Vakaga, one of the 14
prefectures of the Central
African Republic.
ANCIENT LOCATION
FACTOR:
WAR/BELIC CONFLICTS
Birao, prefecture of Central African Republic

19. MEMORIES FROM THE PAST
Commemorate sites where
◦ WWII battles took place,
◦ Concentration camps stood.
Convey powerful visual
impact to show the
confidence and strength of
the Socialist Republic.Abandoned Yugoslavia
Monuments that look like
they're from the Future:
These structures were
commissioned by former
Yugoslavian president in the
1960s and 70s to
In the 1980s, these
monuments attracted
millions of visitors per year.
After the Republic dissolved
in early 1990s, they were
completely abandoned,
and their symbolic meanings
were forever lost.
ANCIENT LOCATION
FACTOR:
WAR MEMORIES LOST
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20. ABANDONEMENT BY OTHER PHENOMENA
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21. A mysterious series of
accidents led this would-be
tourist town to go unused
upon its completion.
Further, regional beliefs also
kept the abandoned
settlement from demolished
- for fear of angering spirits
dwelling in the complex.
ANCIENT LOCATION
FACTOR:
SOCIAL FEARFULNESS
San Zhi, Taipei (Taiwan)
Abandoned settlement on
the outskirts / sububs
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22. HOUSING BUBBLE STILL
BURSTING IN SPAIN
VALDELUZ CITY
(GUADALAJARA)
• Stop on the high speed rail
• Built to house 30,000
people;
• only 1,000 people took up
residence.
SESEÑA (TOLEDO)
Apartments selling:
• 2008 - 221,000 €
• 2013 -65,000 € (markets
floors below cost since
March 2012)
Due to the economic
downturn, never finished
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23. MACROURBANIZATIONS
Despite the scarce population, the town is a reminder of the
economic downturn and how easy it is for towns to be abandoned.
Not even entirely populated area
Causes: Due to the changes in
State Land Legislation: 1996–2008
PRESENT LOCATION
VALDELUZ CITY
FACTOR:
UNSUSTAINABLE
DWELLING SITES
Our national currently
cause – PRIORITY
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24. Consequencies: As a result, the
construction sector, encouraged by the
residential-infrastructure tandem, steadily
increased its share of the Spanish GDP.
’
‘YOUR HOPES MEET
OUR HOPES MEET OURS
EVERY DAY’
Valdeluz City (Guadalajara suburb near Madrid)
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25. ‘Current trends in population growth
and global environmental change will
result coming decades to
◦ population displacements,
◦ forced migrations, and
◦ abandonment of settlements
on scales previously unseen.’
McLeman, 2011:
CONCLUSIONS
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26. Development of Artificial LandPotential for environmentally
related migration is rising.
Population growth rates are
highest in regions where are acute:
• resource depletion,
• land degradation,
• and the expected impacts of
anthropogenic climate
change.
As the number of settlements
experiencing a heightened state
of vulnerability grows, increasing
numbers of people will undertake
adaptive migration. In some
locations this will lead to
population decline
PRESENT LOCATION
FACTOR:
POPULATION
GROWTH
City of
Almere
HOLLAND

27. ‘In the context of the long time-scale, the
abandonment of inhabited locations may
be seen as just one stage in the ongoing
cycle of human settlement and land use.’
Stage 1 Rising vulnerability
Stage 2 Population decline
Stage 3 AbandonmentCameron, 1993:
PROCESS OF
ABANDONMENT
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28. Overexploitation
 Resource Depletion
(i.e. Coal)
Soaring housing prices
or artificial land boom
 Housing Oversupply
COMMUN FACTORS
OF ABANDONEMENT
OPINION
As an architect, I think
the old abandoned
sites after the
hegemony of the
industrial age should
be preserved as
cultural heritage.
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29. WHAT CAN YOU DO AS A CITIZEN?
ACTIVE CITIZEN - TOP 7 WEBSITES
FOR CREATING THE FUTURE CITY
A collaborative
platform for sharing
ideas about:
◦ urban development,
◦ urban transformation,
◦ engage in dialogues
GIVE A MINUTE,
EIGHBOURLAND, THE CITY 2.0,
WALKONOMICS, WALK YOUR
CITY, SPACEHIVE
A crowdfunding
platform for
neighborhood
improvement projects.
LEARNING CITIZEN – BOOKS,
ARTICLES
I. R. Register. Ecocities-
Rebuilding Cities in
Balance with Nature.
2006, New Society
Publishers
II. R.A. McLeman
Settlement
abandonment in the
context of global
environmental change.
Global Environmental
Change (2011)
III. Pérez, J.M.G. The Real
Estate and Economic
Crisis: An Opportunity for
Urban Return and
Rehabilitation Policies in
Spain.
Sustainability 2010, 2,
1571-1601.
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30. What can we do with our abandoned
airports and thematic centres that carry
public debts that will last for decades to
the citizenship?
OUR PARTICULAR
ABANDONED
INFRASTRUCTURES
UNCOMPLETED
LARGE-SCALE
ENDEAVOURS
Culture City (GALICIA)
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