About change azoresuniversity_v2_06oct10

1
Bem
vindos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzNMWmKCorM

2
Assistência Toshiba
(ao meu portátil novo)
em Portugal, Japão e
países nórdicos!

3
Como preparar o alinhamento
estratégico para facilitar a mudança?

4

6
cogito ergo sum
Não será bem
assim Descartes
Driver 1: Pensamento

7
pensamentos
-
memes
-
mudança
Susan Blackmore on memes and "temes"

8
implica mudança
implica mudança
implica mudança
Incerteza/Serendipidity Tempo

9
Ao vivermos 78 anos estamos mais expostos à
mudança do que quando vivemos 18 anos...

10
1967… Theory & 1998… 2037 2059
Health…Energy...
Good Bye
I loved
the trip!
2009
Much
uncertainty
Some
certainty
Kotka
1975…
1990…
Practice
Clearing House
Venture Capital
2011...
learning working
1995…

11

12
Já nem a mudança muda como mudava...
Nada é permanente senão a mudança

13
Temos que mudar a forma como as pessoas se vêem elas próprias...
...antes de podermos mudar o seu comportamento...
Quando tivermos a ousadia de
pensarmos que mudar é
impossivel... Pensemos em Bill

15
SUPER
IMPORTANTE
A MENSAGEM DE
MUDANÇA... É
MELHOR RETIDA
SE TIVER
IMAGENS!

16
O que sabemos sobre mudança
Percepção = Realidade?

17
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseact
ion=vids.individual&videoid=22985602

18

20
“e... não é só acerca do
conteúdo mas também
acercar de como se
comunica"

21
Portanto, crise não é uma
realidade mas APENAS a
percepção dela

22
Porquê que estamos
aqui hoje e
amanhã?

23
Tempo Espaço Como?
Superficie semanas Kms tática
(forma) meses Açores estratégia
Profundidade anos horas visão:
(substância) decadas Planeta principios - proposito-missão
Vida Gerações Universo Exploração/tação do espaço

24
Estou preparado para
a mudança?
. Introdução perspectiva
teamneurs (73-84)
. Questionário
. Iniciativas de gestão do
desvio

25
Do questionário
resultou algum
alerta?

26
Do questionário
resultou algum
alerta?
http://www.thevisualmd.com/health_centers/cardiovasc
ular_health/cardiovascular_continuum

27
Richard Bing, PhD
Inspirador!
http://gimundo.com/videos/view/confessions-of-a-centenarian-richard-j.-bing/

29
Reforço dos conceitos de
sinergias intra-equipas e
ganhos estratégicos através
de
Robert Cialdini (Video)
Bruce Hoag (Skype Video
Call)

30
Sinergia
. 1+1>3
. Quadrado (tecnologia,
cliente, produto e
necessidade)
Ganhos Estratégicos:
BSC:
. Perspectiva financeira
. Perspectiva clientes
. Perspectiva processos internos
. Perspectiva aprendizagem crescimento

32
alimenta pensamentos em:
Nós e nos Outros
TEAMNEUR vs TOXINEUR
alimenta acções em:
Nós e nos Outros
TEAMNEUR vs TOXINEUR

33
Principle #1: Reciprocation
Reciprocation recognizes that people feel
indebted to those who do something for
them or give them a gift.
For marketers, Cialdini says: “The
implication is you have to go first. Give
something: give information, give free
samples, give a positive experience to
people and they will want to give you
something in return.”
Principle #2: Social Proof
When people are uncertain about a course
of action, they tend to look to those around
them to guide their decisions and actions.
They especially want to know what
everyone else is doing – especially their
peers.

34
Principle #3: Commitment and
Consistency
People do not like to back out of deals.
We’re more likely to do something after
we’ve agreed to it verbally or in writing,
Cialdini says. People strive for consistency
in their commitments. They also prefer to
follow pre-existing attitudes, values and
actions.
Principle #4: Liking
“People prefer to say ‘yes’ to those they
know and like,” Cialdini says. People are
also more likely to favor those who are
physically attractive, similar to themselves,
or who give them compliments. Even
something as ‘random’ as having the same
name as your prospects can increase your
chances of making a sale.

35
Principle #5: Authority
People respect authority. They want to
follow the lead of real experts. Business
titles, impressive clothing, and even driving
an expensive, high-performing automobile
are proven factors in lending credibility to
any individual.
Giving the appearance of authority actually
increases the likelihood that others will
comply with requests – even if their
authority is illegitimate.
Principle #6: Scarcity
In fundamental economic theory, scarcity
relates to supply and demand. Basically,
the less there is of something, the more
valuable it is. The more rare and
uncommon a thing, the more people want
it.
http://ebizine.com/marketing/dr-robert-cialdini-and-6-principles-of-persuasion/

38

39

40
1
2
3
4
McKinsey source
(2003): The psychology
of change
management, Emily
Lawson and Colin
Price

47
Para a mudança os inputs
necessários são de natureza
mecânica ou cognitiva?
Mecânica: +€ pode resolver
Cognitiva: Propósito/Pertença
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc

50
Sugestão em Pedro
3:1 às irmãs com
maridos não
crentes: serem
conquistados pelo
exemplo e não por
palavras
Ver toxineurs
em
TEAMNEURS
Crise!? Quais
Crises?!

51
McKinsey
source (2002):
Helping
employees
embrace
change
Jennifer A.
LaClair and
Ravi P. Rao

52
McKinsey source (2009): The
crisis: Mobilizing boards
for change; To meet the challenges
of the economic crisis, corporate
boards must
change the way they work.
Andrew Campbell and Stuart
Sinclair
Hoje?

54
Como tem
sido...
pouca mudança
Como poderá vir
a ser...
tratar por tu a mudança
Sugestão
para
chegar lá...

55
Atenção!
Importância:
. Premissas
. Tendências

56
Modelos de Mudança
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBvozWsdu5c
I. Negação
II. Irritação/fúria
III. Negociação/Fé
IV. Depressão
V. Aceitação
Conclusão?

57
Mudança
Assistida
Tenho sucesso
. porque ou
. apesar de

58
Experiência
Pessoal:
. Exercicio
Diário
. Alimentação
. ...
http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/Caregive
r/Resources/UnderstandingHowPeopleCha
nge/Understanding-How-People-
Change_UCM_301856_Article.jsp

59
Changeworks Solutions
www.hrdq.com

60
Modelos de Mudança
. Análise das
perguntas
. Análise do
relatório

62
Tendências?
Em grupos de
3 escrever 12
tendências e
identificar o
“sítio” da
tendência
10 minutos

63
identificar o
“sítio” da
tendência
Nicholas Christakis: How social
networks predict epidemics

64
Tendências?
The OUTLOOK 2011 report from THE FUTURIST magazine examines the key trends in technology, the
environment, the economy, international relations, etc., in order to paint a full and credible portrait of our
likely future. The magazine has released the top ten forecasts from Outlook 2011, plus more than 300
forecasts from previous reports, on the World Future Society’s Web site.
http://www.wfs.org/Forecasts_From_The_Futurist_Magazine
Our goal in compiling this list has been to provoke thought and inspire action. World Future Society members can log in
to the website and comment on these top ten forecasts. Not a member? Join the World Future Society today and get
The Futurist in print and online and much more.
Here are the top ten forecasts from Outlook 2011:
1. Physicists could become the leading economic forecasters of tomorrow. Unlike mainstream
economists, who rely on averages, econophysicists study complex systems, feedback loops, cascading effects, irrational
decision making, and other destabilizing influences, which may help them to foresee economic upheavals.
2. Environmentalists may embrace genetically modified crops as a carbon-reduction technology. Like
nuclear power, genetically modified crops have long been the bane of environmentalists, but Stewart Brand,
author of Whole Earth Discipline, argues that there are myriad benefits to them as C02 sinks.
3. Search engines will soon include spoken results, not just text. Television broadcasts and other
recordings could be compiled and converted using programs developed by the Fraunhofer Institute for
Intelligent Analysis.
4. Will there be garbage wars in the future? Trash producers in the developed world will ship much more
of their debris to repositories in developing countries. This will inspire protests in the receiving lands. Beyond
2025 or so, the developing countries will close their repositories to foreign waste, forcing producers to
develop more waste-to-energy and recycling technologies.
5. The notion of class time as separate from non-class time will vanish. The Net generation uses
technologies both for socializing and for working and learning, so their approach to tasks is less about
competing and more about working as teams. In this way, social networking is already facilitating
collaborative forms of learning outside of classrooms and beyond formal class schedules.

65
Tendências?
6. The future is crowded with PhDs. The number of doctorate degrees awarded in the United States has risen for six straight years, reaching record
48,802 in 2008, according to the National Science Foundation's Survey of Earned Doctorates. One-third of these degrees (33.1%) went to temporary visa
holders, up from 23.3% in 1998.
7. Cities in developed countries could learn sustainability from so-called slums in the developing world. Dwellers of "slums," favelas, and ghettos
have learned to use and reuse resources and commodities more efficiently than their wealthier counterparts. The neighborhoods are high-density and
walkable, mixing commercial and residential areas rather than segregating these functions. In many of these informal cities, participants play a role in
communal commercial endeavors such as growing food or raising livestock.
8. Cooperatively owned smart cars and roads will replace dumb, individual gas guzzlers. With 800 million cars on the planet to serve 7.8 billion
people, personal transportation is a dominant force in our lives. But the emergence of car-sharing and bike-sharing schemes in urban areas in both the
United States and Europe have established alternative models and markets for fractional or on-demand mobility, says MIT's Ryan C.C. Chin. He and his
fellow engineers with the MIT Media Lab have designed a car system that could serve as a model for future cities.
9. Fighting the global threat of climate change could unite countries— or inflame rivalries. Nations with more sophisticated environmental
monitoring systems could use data to their advantage, perhaps weakening an enemy by failing to warn it of an oncoming storm or other catastrophe. They
could also fudge their own, or their rivals', carbon output numbers to manipulate International legislation says forecaster Roger Howard.
10. We may not be able to move mountains with our minds, but robots will await our mental commands. Brain-based control of conventional
keyboards, allowing individuals to type without physically touching the keys, has been demonstrated at the universities of Wisconsin and Michigan. In the
near future, brain e-mailing and tweeting will become far more common, say experts. A group of undergraduates at Northeastern University demonstrated
in June that they could steer a robot via thought.
All of these forecasts plus dozens more were included in the report that scanned the best writing and research from THE FUTURIST magazine over the
course of the previous year. The 2011 Outlook report was released as part of the November-December 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST magazine, available
on October 1, 2010. If you would like to learn more about how you can join the World Future Society to receive your complimentary copy of Outlook
2011, click here.
The Society hopes this report, covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine, resources,
society and values, and technology, will assist its readers in preparing for the challenges and opportunities in the coming decade.
These are just a few of the big issues and uncommon solutions that THE FUTURIST magazine is tracking for you.
In order to continue our coverage of the challenges and opportunities of the twenty-first century, we need your help in 2010 and 2011. We encourage you
to forward this free sample along to your friends. If you found this information useful or interesting, we hope you'll join the World Future Society to
receive THE FUTURIST magazine today.

66
Tendências?
1. Auto modificação (introdução de mais
cromossomas...)
2 . Geoengenharia (mudar a posição da terra...)
3. Acelaração na ida para o espaço
4. Pouca evolução na assimetria de 60% da
população com 2,5 USD/dia
5. Difusão de sistemas de compensação (Clearing
House Model...)*
6. Valorização do trabalho em ciência (desvalorização
do “querer ser empresário”...)
7. Menor locomoção (maior interação digital...)
8. Falta de àgua (com agitação social associada...)
9. Continuação da destuição do “estado”
10. Mais decisões baseadas na lógica (em detrimento
da econometria...)
11. Assincronicidade
Nota: A númeração é indiferente! Tendências entendidas na primeira pessoa!
. Economia Financeira
. Dívida Soberana
.My name is Business,
and I'm a recovering
debtaholic
* The Modigliani-Miller Theorem (of Franco Modigliani, Merton Miller) forms the basis for
modern thinking on capital structure. The basic theorem states that, in the absence of taxes,
bankruptcy costs, and asymmetric information, and in an efficient market, the value of a firm
is unaffected by how that firm is financed. It does not matter if the firm's capital is raised by
issuing stock or selling debt. It does not matter what the firm's dividend policy is. Therefore,
the Modigliani-Miller theorem is also often called the capital structure irrelevance!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/6871175/ModiglianiMiller-theorem-Wikipedia-the-free-encyclopedia

69
Tendências?
Temos a nossa
vida adaptavel às
tendências?
Actualizamos as
tendências?

70
O que
sabem dos
países
nórdicos?
Modelo Nórdico

72
Modelo Nórdico
Território Km2 Comparado
Territorio Classificação com Portugal
Suécia 450.295 55º 489%
Finland 338.145 64º 367%
Noruega 323.802 67º 352%
Islândia 103.000 107º 112%
Dinamarca 43.094 133º 47%
Portugal 92.090 110º 100%
Países Nórdicos 1.258.336 1366%
Países Nórdico têm sensivelmente o território de Angola!
Source: https://www.cia.gov/ 03.10.2010

73
Modelo Nórdico
População estimativa 2010 Comparado Edu/PIB
População Classificação com Portugal 2005
Suécia 9.059.651 88º 85% 7,10%
Dinamarca 5.500.510 109º 51% 8,30%
Finland 5.250.275 112º 49% 6,40%
Noruega 4.660.539 116º 44% 7,20%
Islândia 306.694 178º 3% 7,60%
Portugal 10.707.924 76º 100% 4,40%
O valor Edu/PIB de Portugal é de 2008
Pessoas educadas não precisam do estado para serem mais educadas!
População dos Países Nórdicos é "identica" à população de Moçambique
Source: https://www.cia.gov/ 04.10.2010

74
Modelo Nórdico
População em comparado Comparado
2.050 com 2010 com Portugal
Suécia 7.777.000 85,84% 86%
Dinamarca 5.080.000 92,36% 56%
Finland 4.693.000 89,39% 52%
Noruega 4.880.000 104,71% 54%
Islândia 333.000 108,58% 4%
Portugal 9.006.000 84,11% 100%
Em PT infantário é 350% no mínimo mais caro que na FI, por exemplo!
Source: http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050.html 04.10.2010

75
Modelo Nórdico
PIB USD estimado 2009 PIB Comparação
Absoluto População per capita com Portugal
Suécia 406.072.000.000 9.059.651 44.822 211%
Finland 237.512.000.000 5.250.275 45.238 213%
Noruega 381.766.000.000 4.660.539 81.915 385%
Islândia 12.133.000.000 306.694 39.561 186%
Dinamarca 309.596.000.000 5.500.510 56.285 265%
Portugal 227.676.000.000 10.707.924 21.262 100%
Países Nórdicos 1.347.079.000.000 54.367
PIB dos Países Nórdico é 86% do PIB do Brazil
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29 04.10.2010

76
Modelo Nórdico
Para quem procura um mercado
com o território de Angola, a
população de Moçambique, o
poder de compra do Brazil tem
aqui perto o mercado nórdico...
Está à espera de quê?

77
Modelo Nórdico
Desafios dos nórdicos:
...
. Felicidade
. Pegada Ecológia
...

79
http://www.happyplanetindex.org/learn/dow
nload-report.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNukFiBM4QE

80
Suécia -53
Finlândia – 59
Islândia - 94
Portugal – 98
Dinamarca - 105
Total – 143
Açores?
Poderiam estar
nos cinco
primeiros!

81
http://sic.sapo.pt/programasinformacao/scripts/VideoPlayer.aspx?ch=plano-
inclinado&videoId={3D85192B-DDAC-44EF-BC60-E09FAF592F7B}
Modelo Nórdico

82
Modelo Nórdico é possivelmente
mais eficaz APENAS porque é
possivelmente a forma de SER e
de ESTAR mais próxima da
harmonia entre os seres humanos
e a natureza!
Por isso encontramos “tantos
nórdicos” em todas as sociedades
MAS não AINDA em número
suficiente para dar massa crítica
para termos uma colagem
humana e territorial como nas
terras nórdicas!

83
Será o contexto
que propicia o
modelo nórdico?

84
Será o contexto
que propicia o
modelo nórdico?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdZn7k5rZLQ

85
Será o contexto
que propicia o
modelo nórdico?

86
Quando é que acordamos?
Portugal à 200 anos era o penúltimo (sendo a Finlândia o último)... Hoje, Portugal é
penultimo sendo a Húngria o último... Perseguição Fino-Hungara ;o) ... Afinal
somos melhores que a Húngria ;o) Começarmos a ser melhor depende de TI/NÓS

87
Ave Cesar, spellituri te salutant
Avé Cesar aqueles a quem
morreu a esperança te saudam!
"Persistence isn't using the same tactics over and over. That's just annoying.
Persistence is having the same goal over and over."
Seth Godin
Posted by Keith Grinsted

88
http://www.famefoundry.com/category/marketing/
watch the video by Seth Godin under the title 'Stop
Marketing and Create a Tribe'
http://fora.tv/2010/11/05/Frans_Johansson_The_Medici_Effect

89
Exemplos de aplicação
drivers da mudança no IKE

90
Adaptação à mudança na primeira
pessoa
Luís Borrego, partilhou o desafio
da Mudança Na Primeira
PESSOA!
Uma excelente intervenção!
Obrigado Luís!

91
Conclusão
Não mudarmos é
promovermos a nossa
própria auto inutilidade
A decisão é SUA!
Com consequências para
TODOS nós!

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