Larry Smarr, Founding Director of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2), shares his presentation delivered at Venture Summit Friday, July 12, 2013

1. “The History
and Possible Futures of the Internet”
2013 Venture Summit “Hot Topics” Presentation
San Diego Venture Group
San Diego, CA
July 12, 2013
Dr. Larry Smarr
Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology
Harry E. Gruber Professor,
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering
Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
http://lsmarr.calit2.net

2. The Forty Year Exponential
Growth in Traffic on the Internet
One
Trillion
Fold
Data Collected by Larry Roberts Copyright 2009 L.G. Roberts
Fold
Increase!
www.packet.cc/Traffic.html

3. Birth of the Internet in Early 1970s Led to
Forty Years of Exponential Growth
Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn, Len Kleinrock, Larry Roberts
http://www.uclabruin.com/30anniv.htm

4. The First NSFnet Backbone:
The National Shared Bandwidth = a Dial-Up Modem!
NSFNET 56 Kb/s Backbone (1986-8)
PSCPSCNCARNCAR
CTCCTC
JVNCJVNC
NCSANCSA
PSCPSCNCARNCAR
SDSCSDSC
Slides from 1994 © CSC Vanguard Meeting with Larry Smarr.

5. NCSA Mosaic
Led to the Modern Web World
100 Commercial
Licensees
Licensing
1992
NCSA Collage
1993
Open
Source
Source: Larry Smarr
1990

6. Then Came the Dot-Com Crash -
Creative Destruction of Capitalism
NASDAQ

7. Out of the Rubble
Google Brings Search to the Web

8. Over the Same Period
Facebook Leads the Rise of the Social Web
Remember the
“1 Millionth FB User” Party?
Growth by 1000-Fold in Less
Than 8 Years!

9. The Scale of the Web Today:
“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”
• Facebook
– One Billion Active Users
• YouTube
– 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month
• Google
– Over One Billion Searches Every Day
• Apple
– 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year
• Smartphones
– 1 Billion Active Users

10. Four Trends of the Future Internet
• Virtual Rooms
• Big Data
• Telepresence
• Global Brain

11. Towards Digital Wallpaper
Hubble Space Telescope Collage of 48 Frames
(30,000x 14,000 pixels) on Calit2’s Vroom

12. Qualcomm Institute’s 3D Immersive StarCAVE:
Enables Exploration of Digital Worlds
Connected at 50 Gb/s to Quartzite
30 HD
Projectors!
15 Meyer Sound
Speakers +
Subwoofer
Cluster with 30 Nvidia 5600 cards-60 GB Texture Memory
Source: Tom DeFanti, Greg Dawe, Calit2
Passive Polarization--
Optimized the
Polarization Separation
and Minimized Attenuation

13. Cultural Heritage Visualization
in Chicago’s Electronic Visualization Lab’s CAVE2
Displayed is a 3D panorama of Luxor in Egypt-
Images were Created at Calit2 by Tom DeFanti and Dan Sandin

14. The Beginning of Virtual Rooms
Sharp Corp’s 156 60”LCDs for the 5D Miracle Tour at
the Hui Ten Bosch Theme Park in Nagasaki
Opened April 29, 2011
http://sharp-world.com/corporate/news/110426.html

16. Creating a Big Data Freeway System:
Use Optical Fiber with 1000x Shared Internet Speeds
NSF Has Awarded Prism@UCSD Optical Switch
Phil Papadopoulos, SDSC, Calit2, PI

17. Global Innovation Centers are Being Connected
with 10,000 Megabits/sec Clear Channel Lightpaths
Source: Maxine Brown, UIC and Robert Patterson, NCSA
100 Gbps Commercially Available
Research on 1 Tbps; 50 Tbps By 2020

18. Telepresence Meeting
Using Digital Cinema 4k Streams
Lays
Technical
Basis for
Global
Streaming 4k
with JPEG
2000
Compression
½ Gbit/sec
100 Times
the Resolution
of YouTube!
4k = 4000x2000 Pixels = 4xHD
Keio University
President Anzai
UCSD
Chancellor Fox
Digital
Cinema
Sony
NTT
SGI
Calit2@UCSD Auditorium

19. Collaboration Between EVL’s CAVE2
and Calit2’s VROOM Over 10Gb Wavelength
Chicago
La Jolla
Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR Workshop at Calit2 March 6, 2013

20. The Future of the Planetary Computer
The Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search
Is More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth
For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!
http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html

21. Google Has Given the Author of “the Singularity is Near”
the Keys to the Planetary Computer

22. During the Next Decade We Will Witness
Silicon Supercomputers Surpass Human Brain Speed
ExaFLOP
PetaFLOP
Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near
PetaFLOP
Computational Capacity of the Human Brain—
“I will Use a More Conservative Figure of 1016cps
for Our Subsequent Discussions.”--Kurzweil

23. Reverse Engineering of the Brain
is Becoming a Reality
www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative

24. UC San Diego Creates
Center for Brain Activity Mapping
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_brain_activity_mapping
May 16, 2013
From left, Nick Spitzer, Ralph Greenspan, and Terry Sejnowski.
Photos by Erik Jepsen/UC San Diego Publications