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Finance
With Excel
Michael Herlache MBA
Doctorate of Business Administration in Finance Candidate 2020
Investment Banking, AltQuest Group
Finance
With Excel
Index
I. Finance with Excel
II. Excel Concepts Needed for Finance
III. Express Decisions with Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision
V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision
VI. Wealth Maximizing Decisions
VII. Cash is King
VIII. Cash Flow Definition
Finance
With Excel
I. Finance with Excel
Express your decisions using Excel. Excel is the premier business
computational tool
Implement financial analysis using the tool for financial analysis, Excel
Valuation process
Heart of finance is time value of money and discounting
Finance
With Excel
II. Excel Concepts Needed for Finance
1. Write down variables (defining the parameters of the decision)
2. Absolute or relative values copying (=A1) (=$A$1) and formulas
3. Functions (=fx( ))
4. Data tables (“sensitivity tables”)
Finance
With Excel
III. Express Decisions with Excel
Implement financial analysis with Excel
Finance
With Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision
Ability to get financing from financial institutions depends on ability to
make a financial model for the new or existing business
The financial model projects future earnings from the organization
Finance
With Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued
Predict the future performance of a firm.
Accounting statements report what happened to the firm in the past. A
financial model predicts what the firm’s accounting statements will look like
in the future. Start by taking the initial accounting statements and inputting
them into Excel
Difference between accounting and financial model is in the current assets
and current liabilities. In financial model we are concerned only with
operating assets and operating liabilities. We exclude financing related
Finance
With Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued
Financial model has three components:
1. Model parameters (value drivers)
2. Financing decision assumptions (i.e. Mix between debt and equity,
what does firm do with excess cash? Repay debt, payments to
shareholders, or as cash balance)
3. Pro forma financial statements
Finance
With Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued
Cash in the financial model is a plug. The plug is so that the balance
sheet balances.
Cash = total liabilities and equity – current assets – net fixed assets
The plug is the balance sheet item that guarantees the equality of the
future projected total assets and future projected total liabilities and
equity. Every financial model has a plug and the plug is almost always
cash, debt, or stock.
Finance
With Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued
Financial Model and Valuation Process:
1. Assumptions (value drivers)
2. Existing accounting statements (IS and BS)
3. Projected financial statements
4. Free cash flow calculation (FCFs)
5. Terminal value calculation
6. Valuation calculation
7. Sensitivity table for major value drivers to see range of valuation
Finance
With Excel
IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued
Once the financial model is complete (i.e. accounting statements have
been projected), we can use the model to:
1. Value the firm by projecting free cash flows (FCFs)
2. Determine ability of firm to pay it’s debts (i.e. credit analysis)
Finance
With Excel
V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision
All companies must decide how to finance their activities
Proportion of debt and equity
Finance
With Excel
V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision
The discount rate should be appropriate to the riskiness (i.e. variability
or beta) of the cash flows being discounted.
Discount rate is also called interest rate, cost of capital, opportunity
cost.
Compute annualized IRR
Finance
With Excel
V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision
The cost of capital of an investment is related to the risk of the cash flows of
the investment. The relationship of individual asset returns to the risk is
called the security market line (SML). You can use SML to get the discount
rate for individual investments. The SML is used for private companies.
The cost of capital of an organization is related to the risk of the combined
riskiness of the investments in the portfolio. The relationship of portfolio
returns to the risk is called the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). You use
CAPM to get the discount rate (i.e. cost of capital). When the investment is a
public security, you use CAPM since the buyer of the security will have a
portfolio to diversify away risk.
Portfolio risk is associated with statistics.
Finance
With Excel
VI. Wealth Maximizing Decisions
1. Investment decision – What is it worth? NPV of strategic alternative
2. Financing decision – What does it cost? IRR of financing alternative
Finance
With Excel
VII. Cash is King
Wealth maximization has to do with maximizing cash. Cash in the
context or organizations is known as cash flow.
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Cash Flow Definition (FCF)
Profit after taxes
+ Depreciation (noncash expense)
+ Change in net working capital (- increase in current assets and +
increase in current liabilities)
- Capital expenditures (CAPEX)
+ After-tax interest payments
= Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Role of the Finance Professional
The role of the financial professional is to quantify the cash flows and
risk of strategic alternatives available to the individual or organization.
Investment bankers compute the IRR and NPV of strategic alternatives.
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Capital Markets and Information
Information is valuable in determining investment and financing
decisions in the capital markets. Overall, markets are weak form
efficient meaning that their valuations reflect previous stock price
performance (i.e. stock price data) and are sometimes semistrong
meaning that valuations incorporate all public information. Capital
markets are not strong form efficient meaning that valuations do not
reflect private information.
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Multiple Investment and Financing Decisions: Portfolio
When there is multiple investment and financing decisions, we have
something called a portfolio. The discount rate can be decreased by
diversifying with a portfolio. When the discount rate is decreased, the
valuation of the portfolio increases as cash flows have maintained more
value.
A corporation/organization is simply a portfolio of sources and uses
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Modeling a Strategic Alternative
1. Put all variables (“value drivers”) at the top of the spreadsheet
2. Never use a number where a formula will also work
3. Blue for hard codes
4. Black for links and outputs
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Finance: Exchanging Value Through Time
Assets have a time dimension
Future value function =FV( )
Value in the future of a sum of money compounded into the future
Present value =PV( )
Value today of future payments discounted to present
Net present value (NPV) =-First payment + NPV( )
Incremental wealth increase earned by a strategic alternative. NPV tells you economic value of an investment
today. Always use NPV in the investment decision.
Internal rate of return (IRR) =IRR( )
Compound rate of return earned by a strategic alternative
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Rate of Return vs. Cost of Capital
What is the asset’s IRR?
Compare to the cost of capital (Effective annual interest rate – which is
the annualized IRR used to compare financing alternatives aka
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR))
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Cost of Capital
Calculate IRR of financing alternatives to determine cost of capital
Need to get IRR in annual terms to facilitate comparison. May have to
start with monthly IRR then annualize
Annualized IRR = (1 + Monthly IRR)^n-1
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Finding a Value in a Financial Model
When we want to find a value by setting a particular value to another
cell, we use:
Goal seek – Alt, A, G
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Financing Alternatives: Loan Amortization
=PMT( )
To calculate the debt payment per period
=IPMT( )
To calculate the interest portion of the payment of debt
=PPMT( )
To calculate the principal portion of the payment
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Financing Alternatives: Direct Comparison
IRR of differential cash flows tells you the cost of the option
IRR tells you the cost of the financing alternative
CAGR is Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAIR) to allow for comparison
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Analyzing the Strategic Alternative: Sensitivity Table
Data Table is Alt, A, W, T
Tells you how output changes with incremental changes in the inputs
(i.e. variables)
Finance
With Excel
VIII. The Financing Alternative: Nominal vs. Real Cost
In determining the true cost of a financing alternative, it is important to
use the real rate of interest which incorporates inflation. The real rate
of interest is determined by using the real cash flows.
Inflation acts as a discount rate
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Strategic Alternatives Analysis
For each strategic alternative, compute the NPV and IRR, then have
decision rules for investing including:
1. Minimum NPV
2. Hurdle rate (IRR)
You are using NPV and IRR to make investment decisions but you need
the discount rate. The discount rate is associated with the financing
decision
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Cash Flows and Risk
Are cash flows riskless (i.e. treasury bills) or are they risky (i.e. market
portfolio)
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Cost of Capital and Opportunity Cost
The returns of similar investments should be used as the cost of capital
Finance
With Excel
VIII. The Discount Rate
An organization’s discount rate is the cost of equity and cost of debt.
The cost of the total capital structure is known as the Weighted
Average Cost of Capital (WACC):
WACC = rE* (E/(E+D)) + rD (1-Tc)*(D/(E+D))
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Value of Equity
The value of equity is the present value of all future dividends
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Sources & Uses
Uses Sources
Free Cash Flows WACC
CAPM to get cost of equity
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Accounting Statements: Statement of Cash Flows
The purpose of the statement of cash flow is to explain the increase in
the cash accounts on the balance sheet as a function of the firm’s
operating, investing, and financing activities.
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Valuation Methods: Total Enterprise Value (TEV) vs. DCF
1. Market valuation:
Total Enterprise Value (TEV) = MVE + MVD + Preferred – Cash
2. DCF Method (intrinsic value) = PV(FCFs) @ WACC + liquid assets
Finance
With Excel
VIII. Accounting Value vs. Finance Value
Accounting value of firm is backward looking and thus incorrect to use
in valuation. Finance value is forward looking and consistent with the
fact that the owner of an organization or security has claims on the
future cash flows of the business.
Finance
With Excel
VIII. FCF and DCF
Free cash flow (FCF) calculations is DCF
Finance
With Excel

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Finance with Excel

  • 1. Finance With Excel Michael Herlache MBA Doctorate of Business Administration in Finance Candidate 2020 Investment Banking, AltQuest Group Finance With Excel
  • 2. Index I. Finance with Excel II. Excel Concepts Needed for Finance III. Express Decisions with Excel IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision VI. Wealth Maximizing Decisions VII. Cash is King VIII. Cash Flow Definition Finance With Excel
  • 3. I. Finance with Excel Express your decisions using Excel. Excel is the premier business computational tool Implement financial analysis using the tool for financial analysis, Excel Valuation process Heart of finance is time value of money and discounting Finance With Excel
  • 4. II. Excel Concepts Needed for Finance 1. Write down variables (defining the parameters of the decision) 2. Absolute or relative values copying (=A1) (=$A$1) and formulas 3. Functions (=fx( )) 4. Data tables (“sensitivity tables”) Finance With Excel
  • 5. III. Express Decisions with Excel Implement financial analysis with Excel Finance With Excel
  • 6. IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Ability to get financing from financial institutions depends on ability to make a financial model for the new or existing business The financial model projects future earnings from the organization Finance With Excel
  • 7. IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued Predict the future performance of a firm. Accounting statements report what happened to the firm in the past. A financial model predicts what the firm’s accounting statements will look like in the future. Start by taking the initial accounting statements and inputting them into Excel Difference between accounting and financial model is in the current assets and current liabilities. In financial model we are concerned only with operating assets and operating liabilities. We exclude financing related Finance With Excel
  • 8. IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued Financial model has three components: 1. Model parameters (value drivers) 2. Financing decision assumptions (i.e. Mix between debt and equity, what does firm do with excess cash? Repay debt, payments to shareholders, or as cash balance) 3. Pro forma financial statements Finance With Excel
  • 9. IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued Cash in the financial model is a plug. The plug is so that the balance sheet balances. Cash = total liabilities and equity – current assets – net fixed assets The plug is the balance sheet item that guarantees the equality of the future projected total assets and future projected total liabilities and equity. Every financial model has a plug and the plug is almost always cash, debt, or stock. Finance With Excel
  • 10. IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued Financial Model and Valuation Process: 1. Assumptions (value drivers) 2. Existing accounting statements (IS and BS) 3. Projected financial statements 4. Free cash flow calculation (FCFs) 5. Terminal value calculation 6. Valuation calculation 7. Sensitivity table for major value drivers to see range of valuation Finance With Excel
  • 11. IV. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Continued Once the financial model is complete (i.e. accounting statements have been projected), we can use the model to: 1. Value the firm by projecting free cash flows (FCFs) 2. Determine ability of firm to pay it’s debts (i.e. credit analysis) Finance With Excel
  • 12. V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision All companies must decide how to finance their activities Proportion of debt and equity Finance With Excel
  • 13. V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision The discount rate should be appropriate to the riskiness (i.e. variability or beta) of the cash flows being discounted. Discount rate is also called interest rate, cost of capital, opportunity cost. Compute annualized IRR Finance With Excel
  • 14. V. Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision The cost of capital of an investment is related to the risk of the cash flows of the investment. The relationship of individual asset returns to the risk is called the security market line (SML). You can use SML to get the discount rate for individual investments. The SML is used for private companies. The cost of capital of an organization is related to the risk of the combined riskiness of the investments in the portfolio. The relationship of portfolio returns to the risk is called the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). You use CAPM to get the discount rate (i.e. cost of capital). When the investment is a public security, you use CAPM since the buyer of the security will have a portfolio to diversify away risk. Portfolio risk is associated with statistics. Finance With Excel
  • 15. VI. Wealth Maximizing Decisions 1. Investment decision – What is it worth? NPV of strategic alternative 2. Financing decision – What does it cost? IRR of financing alternative Finance With Excel
  • 16. VII. Cash is King Wealth maximization has to do with maximizing cash. Cash in the context or organizations is known as cash flow. Finance With Excel
  • 17. VIII. Cash Flow Definition (FCF) Profit after taxes + Depreciation (noncash expense) + Change in net working capital (- increase in current assets and + increase in current liabilities) - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) + After-tax interest payments = Free Cash Flow (FCF) Finance With Excel
  • 18. VIII. Role of the Finance Professional The role of the financial professional is to quantify the cash flows and risk of strategic alternatives available to the individual or organization. Investment bankers compute the IRR and NPV of strategic alternatives. Finance With Excel
  • 19. VIII. Capital Markets and Information Information is valuable in determining investment and financing decisions in the capital markets. Overall, markets are weak form efficient meaning that their valuations reflect previous stock price performance (i.e. stock price data) and are sometimes semistrong meaning that valuations incorporate all public information. Capital markets are not strong form efficient meaning that valuations do not reflect private information. Finance With Excel
  • 20. VIII. Multiple Investment and Financing Decisions: Portfolio When there is multiple investment and financing decisions, we have something called a portfolio. The discount rate can be decreased by diversifying with a portfolio. When the discount rate is decreased, the valuation of the portfolio increases as cash flows have maintained more value. A corporation/organization is simply a portfolio of sources and uses Finance With Excel
  • 21. VIII. Modeling a Strategic Alternative 1. Put all variables (“value drivers”) at the top of the spreadsheet 2. Never use a number where a formula will also work 3. Blue for hard codes 4. Black for links and outputs Finance With Excel
  • 22. VIII. Finance: Exchanging Value Through Time Assets have a time dimension Future value function =FV( ) Value in the future of a sum of money compounded into the future Present value =PV( ) Value today of future payments discounted to present Net present value (NPV) =-First payment + NPV( ) Incremental wealth increase earned by a strategic alternative. NPV tells you economic value of an investment today. Always use NPV in the investment decision. Internal rate of return (IRR) =IRR( ) Compound rate of return earned by a strategic alternative Finance With Excel
  • 23. VIII. Rate of Return vs. Cost of Capital What is the asset’s IRR? Compare to the cost of capital (Effective annual interest rate – which is the annualized IRR used to compare financing alternatives aka Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)) Finance With Excel
  • 24. VIII. Cost of Capital Calculate IRR of financing alternatives to determine cost of capital Need to get IRR in annual terms to facilitate comparison. May have to start with monthly IRR then annualize Annualized IRR = (1 + Monthly IRR)^n-1 Finance With Excel
  • 25. VIII. Finding a Value in a Financial Model When we want to find a value by setting a particular value to another cell, we use: Goal seek – Alt, A, G Finance With Excel
  • 26. VIII. Financing Alternatives: Loan Amortization =PMT( ) To calculate the debt payment per period =IPMT( ) To calculate the interest portion of the payment of debt =PPMT( ) To calculate the principal portion of the payment Finance With Excel
  • 27. VIII. Financing Alternatives: Direct Comparison IRR of differential cash flows tells you the cost of the option IRR tells you the cost of the financing alternative CAGR is Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAIR) to allow for comparison Finance With Excel
  • 28. VIII. Analyzing the Strategic Alternative: Sensitivity Table Data Table is Alt, A, W, T Tells you how output changes with incremental changes in the inputs (i.e. variables) Finance With Excel
  • 29. VIII. The Financing Alternative: Nominal vs. Real Cost In determining the true cost of a financing alternative, it is important to use the real rate of interest which incorporates inflation. The real rate of interest is determined by using the real cash flows. Inflation acts as a discount rate Finance With Excel
  • 30. VIII. Strategic Alternatives Analysis For each strategic alternative, compute the NPV and IRR, then have decision rules for investing including: 1. Minimum NPV 2. Hurdle rate (IRR) You are using NPV and IRR to make investment decisions but you need the discount rate. The discount rate is associated with the financing decision Finance With Excel
  • 31. VIII. Cash Flows and Risk Are cash flows riskless (i.e. treasury bills) or are they risky (i.e. market portfolio) Finance With Excel
  • 32. VIII. Cost of Capital and Opportunity Cost The returns of similar investments should be used as the cost of capital Finance With Excel
  • 33. VIII. The Discount Rate An organization’s discount rate is the cost of equity and cost of debt. The cost of the total capital structure is known as the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): WACC = rE* (E/(E+D)) + rD (1-Tc)*(D/(E+D)) Finance With Excel
  • 34. VIII. Value of Equity The value of equity is the present value of all future dividends Finance With Excel
  • 35. VIII. Sources & Uses Uses Sources Free Cash Flows WACC CAPM to get cost of equity Finance With Excel
  • 36. VIII. Accounting Statements: Statement of Cash Flows The purpose of the statement of cash flow is to explain the increase in the cash accounts on the balance sheet as a function of the firm’s operating, investing, and financing activities. Finance With Excel
  • 37. VIII. Valuation Methods: Total Enterprise Value (TEV) vs. DCF 1. Market valuation: Total Enterprise Value (TEV) = MVE + MVD + Preferred – Cash 2. DCF Method (intrinsic value) = PV(FCFs) @ WACC + liquid assets Finance With Excel
  • 38. VIII. Accounting Value vs. Finance Value Accounting value of firm is backward looking and thus incorrect to use in valuation. Finance value is forward looking and consistent with the fact that the owner of an organization or security has claims on the future cash flows of the business. Finance With Excel
  • 39. VIII. FCF and DCF Free cash flow (FCF) calculations is DCF Finance With Excel