1. Predicting Outcomes From Conversational
Dynamics Within the First 5 minutes
Thin Slices
Curhan & Pentland
2. Power of First Impressions
Thin Slices
Evidence that conversational dynamics might play a critical
role in negotiation
Formal Microanalyses of highly specific speech features
Predictive validity of computers
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1 First impression based on 30sec and 6sec of silent video
Interviewer’s impressions are formed in the early stages of the
interview and tend to persist throughout the interaction
Degree to which 4 conventional dynamics occurring within
the 1st 5min of a two-party, simulated employment
negotiation predict the outcomes of that negotiation
Behavioral outcome of a Transactional Negotiation
3. Have been shown to predict a broad
range of consequences
Key to success lies in understanding
social signaling, often nonverbal in
nature
Thin Slices of behavioral
data
Negotiation context, Pentland hopes to
provide a useful diagnostic instrument
that might facilitate future research on
negotiation processes as well as
applications for training and evaluating
negotiators.
Computer Algorithms- Thin Slice
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4. Nonlinguistic social signals, body
language, facial expressions, & tone of
voice are as important as linguistic
content in predicting behavioral outcomes
Which social signals participants might
use to judge outcomes?
That have already been suggested in
the literature with behavioral
outcomes, to determine which signals
(if any) have predictive power similar
to that of human judges.
Compare candidate signal
features
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How these predictive social signals
relate to existing theories of mental
function and social interaction.
Examine
Social Signaling and
Conversational
Dynamics2
1
Curhan & Pentland
Research
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6. Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and
conversational interaction that could serve as predictive
social signals
An individual’s activity level during the
first 5 min of the negotiation will be
positively correlated with his or her
own individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Time a person speak. Studies’
involving competitive settings,
speaking time was positively correlated
with dominance over the outcome
Activity
1 2
7. Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and
conversational interaction that could serve as predictive
social signals
An individual’s level of engagement
during the first 5 min of the negotiation
will be positively correlated with his or
her own individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Measured by the influence that one
person has on the other’s
conversational turn taking. (Markov
process).
One sided engagement occurs when
one person is energetically questioning
another and the other begins speaking
only after the questioner ceases
speaking.
Engagement
1 2
8. Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and
conversational interaction that could serve as predictive
social signals
An individual’s level of emphasis
during the first 5 min of the negotiation
will be positively correlated with his or
her own individual outcome but
positively correlated with the
counterpart’s individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Measured by variation in speech
prosody, specifically, variations in pitch
and volume.
Pentland & Curhan emphasis measure
may be an indication of the importance
a speaker attaches to the interaction.
Emphasis
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9. Pentland’ s Four Measures of vocal quality and
conversational interaction that could serve as predictive
social signals
Hypothesis: an individual’s freq. of
mirroring during the first 5 min of the
negotiation will be positively correlated
with his or her own individual outcome.
Hypothesis
Behavior of one individual is mimicked
or mirrored by another, this could
signal empathy, which has shown to
positively influence the smoothness of
an interaction as well as mutual liking.
Mirroring
1 2
10. Method
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Hypothesis: An individual’s activity level during the first 5 min of the negotiation will be positively
correlated with his or her own individual outcome.
.
Activity-time a person speak. Studies’ involving competitive settings, speaking time
was positively correlated with dominance over the outcome.
This is an example text. Go ahead and replace it with your own text. This is an example text. Go ahead
and replace it with your own text. This is an example text. Go ahead and replace it with your own text.
Engagement- measured by the influence that one person has on the other’s conversational turn
taking. (Markov process). One sided engagement occurs when one person is energetically
questioning another and the other begins speaking only after the questioner ceases speaking.
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Templates
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3
11. Technology can be used to give real time feedback to diagnose and improve individual
negotiation skills
Microcoding using a computer it may ensure high test-retest reliability. Because computer measures objective,
physical property of the audio signal, not subjective or psychological properties of the measures are 100% consistent.
Present study uses computer algorithms to identified specific features of thin slices that
correlated with subsequent behavioral outcomes
Pros
Conclusion
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Cons
No real evidence to prove the success of technology based on the algorithms used in this research is a
better predictor of thin slice outcome then human judge predictors
Research increase the original concept of Thin Slice 30sec and 6sec to 5min first impression to predict
outcome
For more complicated speech features, the link between specific measures and their respective
conversational dynamics is more tenuous
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Notwithstanding this potential shortcoming, one advantage of microcoding using a computer is that it
ensures high test-retest reliability.
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13. Four Measures of vocal quality and
conversational interaction that could serve
as predictive social signals
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EngagementActivity
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time a person speak.
Studies’ involving
competitive settings,
speaking time was
positively correlated with
dominance over the
outcome.
o Hypothesis: An
individual’s activity level
during the first 5 min of the
negotiation will be positively
correlated with his or her
own individual outcome.
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14. Going beyond
Mining Social Networks
Wearable Networks
The belief that by adding mathematical understanding
of behavior based on the feature analysis, will
enhance distance-separated team work behavior,
collaboration, decision-making and the sharing of
social experiences.
GRS
Group Network
Social
Intelligence
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