The ISP industry has been selling the public and government on the benefits of 'superfast' broadband. This presentation argues that the goal should instead be 'superfit' broadband.

1. Superfit Broadband
Peter Thompson
Predictable Network Solutions Ltd
PREDICTABLE
NETWORK
SOLUTIONS
© 2014 All Rights Reserved

2. The only network
performance science
company in the world.
PREDICTABLE
NETWORK
SOLUTIONS

3. Why are we here?

4. Our message
Superfast ≠ Superfit

5. Cosmic Ludic Ecological
Speed
of light
Statistical
multiplexing
Pricing
policy
Constraints on everything

6. My offer to you today
• Help you to understand the (ludic) mismatch
between:
– What people are aspiring to achieve (demand)
– What you are actually doing (supply)
• Propose how to close the gap
– Technically grounded in reality
– Practical advice on how to proceed

7. This may be a
difficult message to hear

8. My three key messages
1. Speed (‘bandwidth’) is no longer a
helpful model for broadband.
2. The pursuit of ever more speed
means the broadband business is in
a death spiral.
3. You need to change your model to
survive.

9. Why trust in increasing
speed is now misplaced
Pre-IP EarlyIP Now
Packetdelay

10. Why trust in increasing
speed is now misplaced
G
Pre-IP EarlyIP Now
The speed of light
is not changing
Geography
Cosmic constraint
Packetdelay

11. Why trust in increasing
speed is now misplaced
Historically speed
did correlate with
more value
G
S
Pre-IP EarlyIP Now
Geography
Serialisation speed
Ecological constraint
Packetdelay

12. Why trust in increasing
speed is now misplaced
G
S
V Variability
Pre-IP EarlyIP Now
Now dominates
application
performance
Serialisation speed
Geography
Ludic constraint
Packetdelay

13. Networks are ‘trading spaces’
How ‘V’ is
distributed among
competing streams
is how demand
is matched to the supply

14. COSTS
REVENUE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
-
+

15. COSTS
REVENUE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
Supply
Demand

16. COSTS
REVENUE
DATA FLOWS
APPLICATION OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
Supply
Demand

17. COSTS
REVENUE
DATA FLOWS
APPLICATION OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
POWERED MECHANISMS
TRANSMISSION RESOUCE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
UNPOWERED TIN
Supply
Demand

18. COSTS
REVENUE
SCHEDULING
Scheduling
This is the trading
space where supply
and demand meet
and ‘V’ is distributed

19. Your problem: magical thinking
When there is
excessive delay, you are
trying to make V disappear
by building more capacity
rather than distributing it
through scheduling

20. Result: telecoms is a capital killer
Source: PwC
http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/communications/publications/assets/pwc_capex_final_21may12.pdf

21. What has to change?
NOW FUTURE
BANDWIDTH
Selling
commodity
inputs

22. What has to change?
NOW FUTURE
BANDWIDTH
Selling
commodity
inputs
SCHEDULING
Selling
differentiated
application
outcomes

23. COSTS
REVENUE
FLOWS
OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE
EXPERIENCE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
Characterise
demand

24. COSTS
REVENUE
FLOWS
OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE
EXPERIENCE
MECHANISMS
TRANSMISSION
REQUIRES
ENABLES
TIN
Construct
matching
supply
Characterise
demand

25. COSTS
REVENUE
FLOWS
OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE
EXPERIENCE
MECHANISMS
TRANSMISSION
REQUIRES
ENABLES
TIN
SCHEDULING
Construct
matching
supply
Characterise
demand
Trade
resources

26. Five class resource trading model has
rational economics
SuperiorStandard
SuperiorStandard
Economy
SuperiorStandard
SuperiorStandard
Economy
SuperiorStandard
SuperiorStandard
Economy
Drives capacity
planning
(primary service)
cost
Drives resilience &
redundancy
capacity planning
cost
Drives
revenue

27. What operators
should be asking themselves
1. Why am I trying to solve my scheduling
problems with more capacity?
2. For my key customer applications, am I
delivering the network supply that enables
good quality of experience?
– i.e. am I delivering the right loss and delay?
3. Given that there is a trading space, am I
constructing and offering the right data
transport products?

28. What regulators
should be asking themselves
1. What is the value that I am getting from
demanding more speed?
2. Measurement is de facto regulation,
therefore am I measuring the right thing?
3. What are the key applications that need
managed QoE and cost to drive societal
benefits?

29. Summary: superfit, not superfast
Work with the
ludic constraints
Face a crisis
of legitimacy
or

30. Peter Thompson
Peter.Thompson@pnsol.com
Tel: +44 (0)3333 407713
PREDICTABLE
NETWORK
SOLUTIONS