Future of Voice - Gotcha!

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Future of Voice - Gotcha! Presentation that Dean Bubley and Martin Geddes gave at the Future of Voice workshop. It explores the obstacles and challenges that may stifle innovation or impede the adoption of new voices services.

Technologie Business

Future of Voice Workshop

Gotcha!
8th October 2013
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

What could possibly go wrong?

Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Lots of things…



Battery life
Poor UX







“Which browser tab is ringing”

RF coverage/interference
Microphones/earpieces/headsets
Security
Etc.

Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

There are trade-offs…

vs

Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Call quality: elephant in the room


US – voice in focus
 Rural

call completion
 Verizon/VoiceLink


UK – regulatory change
 New

consumer
broadband metrics
 More than “speed”


EU – major debate
 “Assured

Oct 2013

services”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Not all broadband is created equal…
Example: Two different ADSL providers in the same location, same “speed”

Great for voice
Oct 2013

Poor for voice

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Bufferbloat & Active Queue Management

Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

A Recent Bad Skype Experience
1.8M/448k ADSL – wholesale 20CN
Loss: 0.1%.
Delay: 40ms-50ms

20M/2M Cable broadband
Loss: <0.5%.
Delay (one-way): 50ms-60ms, jumping
to 500ms for a second or two, then back
Oct 2013

10M/1M ADSL Business LLU
Loss: Wandering from a typical 0%-2% up
to as high as 48% for a second or two.
Delay: 50-70ms

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Different speeds & characteristics
SLOW & STATIONARY LOSS/DELAY

Good Experience

Bad Experience

VERY FAST
& VARIABLE DELAY

Oct 2013

FAST
& VARIABLE LOSS

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Voice quality depends on more than speed

STATIONARITY

Determines the chance
that applications can
adapt to the network

Most stationary connection
had the BEST Skype
experience

HIGH

Fastest connection
had the WORST
Skype experience

LOW
SLOW

Oct 2013

SPEED

FAST

Determines which
applications are feasible

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Does over-provisioning work?

Can we run a “converged” voice and data
network?
 How to capacity plan the system?
 How to measure and manage voice quality?


Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Other “gotchas”


Assumed substitutability of IP transport




Capacity planning




Either uneconomic or ineffective; poor signalling/media interaction

Call admission control




“Residual packet service time” problem is repeated service killer

QoS




Edge/core, first/last 100 kbps, different media (they are not the same!)

Unified Comms is brittle and prone to failure due to lack of CAC

Measurement & management


Oct 2013

“Jitter”, “bandwidth use” are not direct QoE proxies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

The biggie: SLA composability




All the individual SLAs were
met along the chain…
…but the voice service
doesn’t work!
What’s wrong?

We don’t live in
TDM land any more!
Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Other horrors (or opportunities…)


Ever more NAT/FW/middlebox latency & variability issues




Internet fragmentation – islands of (non)connectivity




IPv6 scaling issues on public Internet + rising routing overheads?

Audio + video processing value chain





NFV/SDN may make things worse…

Noise cancellation + suppression interactions
Multi-bearer comms; media processing in the cloud

Ecosystem shift - “climate change” - IT-isation



Oct 2013

Middle players (i.e. innovative telco suppliers) will get bought out
Instability of supplier relationships

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Last (but not least…)

Regulators

Oct 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Get in touch
We can help you prepare for a
world where voice is a feature,
not a service. Find out more

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
twitter.com/disruptivedean
www.disruptive-analysis.com
Newsletter

Oct 2013

mail@martingeddes.com
Twitter.com/martingeddes
www.martingeddes.com
Newsletter

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

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Future of Voice - Gotcha!

1. Future of Voice Workshop Gotcha! 8th October 2013 Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com

2. What could possibly go wrong? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

3. Lots of things…   Battery life Poor UX      “Which browser tab is ringing” RF coverage/interference Microphones/earpieces/headsets Security Etc. Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

4. There are trade-offs… vs Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

5. Call quality: elephant in the room  US – voice in focus  Rural call completion  Verizon/VoiceLink  UK – regulatory change  New consumer broadband metrics  More than “speed”  EU – major debate  “Assured Oct 2013 services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

6. Gotcha! Consumer broadband voice

7. Not all broadband is created equal… Example: Two different ADSL providers in the same location, same “speed” Great for voice Oct 2013 Poor for voice Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

8. Bufferbloat & Active Queue Management Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

9. A Recent Bad Skype Experience 1.8M/448k ADSL – wholesale 20CN Loss: 0.1%. Delay: 40ms-50ms 20M/2M Cable broadband Loss: <0.5%. Delay (one-way): 50ms-60ms, jumping to 500ms for a second or two, then back Oct 2013 10M/1M ADSL Business LLU Loss: Wandering from a typical 0%-2% up to as high as 48% for a second or two. Delay: 50-70ms Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

10. Different speeds & characteristics SLOW & STATIONARY LOSS/DELAY Good Experience Bad Experience VERY FAST & VARIABLE DELAY Oct 2013 FAST & VARIABLE LOSS Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

11. Voice quality depends on more than speed STATIONARITY Determines the chance that applications can adapt to the network Most stationary connection had the BEST Skype experience HIGH Fastest connection had the WORST Skype experience LOW SLOW Oct 2013 SPEED FAST Determines which applications are feasible Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

12. Gotcha! Enterprise & Carrier Voice

13. Does over-provisioning work? Can we run a “converged” voice and data network?  How to capacity plan the system?  How to measure and manage voice quality?  Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

14. Other “gotchas”  Assumed substitutability of IP transport   Capacity planning   Either uneconomic or ineffective; poor signalling/media interaction Call admission control   “Residual packet service time” problem is repeated service killer QoS   Edge/core, first/last 100 kbps, different media (they are not the same!) Unified Comms is brittle and prone to failure due to lack of CAC Measurement & management  Oct 2013 “Jitter”, “bandwidth use” are not direct QoE proxies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

15. The biggie: SLA composability    All the individual SLAs were met along the chain… …but the voice service doesn’t work! What’s wrong? We don’t live in TDM land any more! Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

16. Other horrors (or opportunities…)  Ever more NAT/FW/middlebox latency & variability issues   Internet fragmentation – islands of (non)connectivity   IPv6 scaling issues on public Internet + rising routing overheads? Audio + video processing value chain    NFV/SDN may make things worse… Noise cancellation + suppression interactions Multi-bearer comms; media processing in the cloud Ecosystem shift - “climate change” - IT-isation   Oct 2013 Middle players (i.e. innovative telco suppliers) will get bought out Instability of supplier relationships Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

17. Last (but not least…) Regulators Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

18. Get in touch We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com twitter.com/disruptivedean www.disruptive-analysis.com Newsletter Oct 2013 mail@martingeddes.com Twitter.com/martingeddes www.martingeddes.com Newsletter Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Future of Voice - Gotcha!

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