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Climate Change and the Philippines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Department of Environmental Science Ateneo de Manila University Head, Regional Climate Systems Manila Observatory
We are fish swimming under a sea of air! Pressure = 1,000 millibars at ground level Atmospheric pressure (millibars) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (Sea Level) – 80 – 40 0 40 80 120 Temperature (˚C) Altitude (kilometers) Altitude (miles) 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 Thermosphere Heating via ozone Mesosphere Stratosphere Ozone “layer” Troposphere Temperature Pressure Mesopause Stratopause Tropopause
Types of Air Pollutants Primary Pollutants Secondary Pollutants CO CO 2 SO 2 NO NO 2 Most hydrocarbons Most suspended particles SO 3 HNO 3 H 2 SO 4 H 2 O 2 O 3 PANs Most and salts NO 3 – SO 4 2 –
Solar radiation Energy in  =  Energy out Reflected by atmosphere (34%) UV radiation Absorbed by ozone Absorbed by the earth Visible light Lower Stratosphere (ozone layer) Troposphere Heat Greenhouse effect Radiated by atmosphere as heat (66%) Earth Heat radiated by the earth
Greenhouse Effect Rays of sunlight  p warm the earth's surface . Earth's surface absorbs  muchcoming  degrades it to longer-wavelength infrared radiation (heat) ,  which rises i absorbed by molecules of greenhouse gases  a warms the lower atmosphere. As concentrations of greenhouse  gases rise ,  more heat to the lower atmosphere. (a) (b) (c)
Reviewing the Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Inconvenient Truths ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What about the Philippines? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is it just the Urban Heat Island Effect ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate Change and the Philippines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sea Level Rise in the Philippines   Yanagi and Akaki 1994 Hulme and Sheard 1999 Perez et al. 1999 Manila Bay (Blue) Legaspi (Red)
Mactan Island, Cebu
Northeast MManila
Bulacan-Pampanga
Trends in Regional Surface Temperatures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Trends in number of hot days and warm nights (inset). Large symbols indicate where  p  0.05. From Manton et al. 2000.
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Global Warming: Quick Facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones ,[object Object],[object Object],Annual increase in number of TCs. Shading indicates where  p    0.01. (From Anglo 2005).
Stronger Typhoons? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Changes in Regional Rainfall Extremes, 1961 to 1998  (Manton et al 2001) ,[object Object],Change in the frequency of days with rain Change in the proportion of total annual rainfall contributed by heavy rain
Changes in Mean Annual Rainfall over the Philippines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Difference in mean annual rainfall, 1976-2000 minus 1951-1975. ENSO events based on Multivariate ENSO Index (Wolter and Timlin 1998) NORMAL EL NINO LA NINA ALL YEARS
Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate  Making a Bad Situation Worse   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate  Making a Bad Situation Worse   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate  Making a Bad Situation Worse   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary of 1994 RP Emissions 1990 Total (ADB 1994): 81.9 x 10 3  tons Waste 7% Agriculture 33% Industry  11% Energy 49% Sector CO 2  Emissions (10 3  tons) Energy 50.0 Agriculture 33.1 Industry 10.6 Waste 7.1 Total 100.8
Where We Stand  and  What it Means CO 2  Emissions per Capita (tons) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Actions Needed  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Plant How Many Trees?
A Better Response:   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EAT LESS MEAT
Final Notes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]

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Climate Change And The Philippines

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  • 2. We are fish swimming under a sea of air! Pressure = 1,000 millibars at ground level Atmospheric pressure (millibars) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (Sea Level) – 80 – 40 0 40 80 120 Temperature (ËšC) Altitude (kilometers) Altitude (miles) 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 Thermosphere Heating via ozone Mesosphere Stratosphere Ozone “layer” Troposphere Temperature Pressure Mesopause Stratopause Tropopause
  • 3. Types of Air Pollutants Primary Pollutants Secondary Pollutants CO CO 2 SO 2 NO NO 2 Most hydrocarbons Most suspended particles SO 3 HNO 3 H 2 SO 4 H 2 O 2 O 3 PANs Most and salts NO 3 – SO 4 2 –
  • 4. Solar radiation Energy in = Energy out Reflected by atmosphere (34%) UV radiation Absorbed by ozone Absorbed by the earth Visible light Lower Stratosphere (ozone layer) Troposphere Heat Greenhouse effect Radiated by atmosphere as heat (66%) Earth Heat radiated by the earth
  • 5. Greenhouse Effect Rays of sunlight p warm the earth's surface . Earth's surface absorbs muchcoming degrades it to longer-wavelength infrared radiation (heat) , which rises i absorbed by molecules of greenhouse gases a warms the lower atmosphere. As concentrations of greenhouse gases rise , more heat to the lower atmosphere. (a) (b) (c)
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  • 11. Sea Level Rise in the Philippines Yanagi and Akaki 1994 Hulme and Sheard 1999 Perez et al. 1999 Manila Bay (Blue) Legaspi (Red)
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  • 24. Summary of 1994 RP Emissions 1990 Total (ADB 1994): 81.9 x 10 3 tons Waste 7% Agriculture 33% Industry 11% Energy 49% Sector CO 2 Emissions (10 3 tons) Energy 50.0 Agriculture 33.1 Industry 10.6 Waste 7.1 Total 100.8
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