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First Half 2009


MEDICAL OFFICE SECTOR REMAINS HEALTHY IN AILING ECONOMY
     Unlike other asset types, medical office properties continue to garner investor demand by exhibiting consider-
able resistance to the economic downturn. Nonetheless, there are locales across the country where medical office
assets are underperforming, and in many instances, there is upward pressure on vacancy. The segment, however, is
holding up better than other product types. Much of the economic resilience tempting investors can be attributed to
the positive state of the health care industry. The nation spends over $2 trillion on health care annually, more than
double U.S. expenditures on food, and health care spending is projected to exceed $3 trillion by 2013. In fact, med-
ical outlays have increased by an annual average of 7.7 percent over the past 10 years and now comprise 17 percent
of GDP. The rise in spending is facilitated by growth in the number of residents over 55 years old, a group that will
expand nearly 20 percent through 2013. Furthermore, people will continue to seek medical care for illness and pre-
ventative reasons, despite a recent slowdown in costly elective procedures.

     Another demand driver for medical office space has been the shift of medical care from an inpatient to outpa-
tient focus. Hospital construction costs have skyrocketed to an estimated $1 million per bed, prompting facilities to
downsize. In the past, hospitals often supported 800 beds, but many new facilities contain fewer than 100 beds,
necessitating more off-site services. As such, care at physicians’ offices and visits to ambulatory and diagnostic
offices have increased significantly in recent years, generating demand for space. Other construction trends that
focus on a property’s visibility and ease of accessibility also are becoming popular. Among these are medical malls,
or health care offices located in mixed-use projects. Going forward, these trends are expected to gain momentum as
hospitals continue to scale back on exportable patient care, further buttressing demand for medical office space.

     As a result of forecasts for continued increases in demand, the need for medical workers will remain strong.
While almost every other employment sector is contracting, the medical field is adding jobs, albeit at a far more
modest pace than the average annual gain of 382,000 employees over the last eight years. The slowdown is due pri-
marily to mild reductions in consumer medical spending. Approximately 52,000 positions have been created in the
sector so far this year, and another 200,000 workers are expected by year end. More than 2.4 million health care jobs
are forecast to be generated through 2013. The most significant gains are projected for Sun Belt states such as Texas
and Florida, where retiring baby boomers are likely to settle. Increased hiring also has facilitated a 17 percent jump
in medical school enrollment over the past two years, while the nation continues to undergo a nursing shortage.
Nonetheless, of the 420,000 medical positions created in 2008, 168,000 were for registered nurses.




                                    Health Care Spending Trends                                                         Health Care Employment Trends
                                                    Health Care Spending                                                           Nonfarm Employment
                                                    Spending Growth                                                                Health Care Employment
                                   $4                                                10%                                6%
      Total Spending (trillions)




                                   $3                                                8%                                 4%
                                                                                           Annual Growth




                                                                                                           Job Growth




                                   $2                                                6%                                 2%

                                   $1                                                4%                                  0%

                                   $0                                                2%                                 -2%
                                        00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*10*11*12*13*                                            00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*
      * Forecast                                                                                           * Forecast
      Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.                                    Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Economy.com
NATIONAL TRENDS
                                                                                        ◆   Demographic Trends: The aging population continues to support expan-
                                Population Growth by Age Group                              sion in the medical office market, although the struggling economy has put
                                                    2000-2008
                                6%                                                          a damper on recent exuberance. Mounting requirements for expanded
                                                    2009-2013*
   Avg. Annual Percent Change




                                                                                            health care remain centered on the maturing population, particularly in
                                4%                                                          the nation’s retiree havens. Over the next five years, the population of
                                                                                            those between the ages of 65 and 74 will increase 24 percent nationwide
                                2%                                                          and nearly 30 percent in the Southeast and Southwest combined.
                                0%
                                                                                        ◆   Construction Trends: In response to increased demand for medical space,
                                -2%
                                                                                            developers have ramped up deliveries since 2003. Completions peaked last
                                       Age    Age Age Age Age Age Age
                                       0-4    5-19 20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+
                                                                                            year at more than 17 million square feet of space. Almost one-third of the
    * Forecast                                                                              new inventory came online in the Southwest, where a once-booming hous-
    Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                                            ing market and robust population growth supported demand. Despite the
                                                                                            strength of medical office properties, the current economy has prompted
                                                                                            developers to cut deliveries for the foreseeable future. Completions are
                                                                                            forecast to drop to 14.1 million square feet this year, or an inventory expan-
                                                                                            sion of 2.6 percent.

                                                                                        ◆   Rent/Vacancy Trends: Uncertainties in the economy, including layoffs and
                                                                                            corporate benefit cuts, have prompted many consumers to forgo routine
   Fastest-Growing Metros: 2009-2013*                                                       health care and some elective procedures. The resulting decrease in demand
                                              Age 55 and Older                              will contribute to pushing vacancy up 100 basis points this year to 12.4 per-
                                 26%
                                                                                            cent. Consequently, after finishing 2008 up 1 percent at $24.60 per square
   Percent Growth




                                 24%                                                        foot, asking rents are expected to dip roughly 2.7 percent by year end.
                                 22%
                                                                                        ◆   Investment Trends: Demand for medical office assets remains strong,
                                 20%                                                        although transaction levels in 2008 were down 15 percent from those
                                                                                            recorded a year earlier. Cap rates have climbed over the past year to the
                                 18%
                                                                                            high-7 percent to low-8 percent range, fueled by tightening underwriting
                                                      h




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                                                                                            an price was up 1 percent from the previous year at $210 per square foot.
                                      Ri
                                   es




    * Forecast
                                  W




    Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

                                                                                        NORTHEAST
                                                                                        ◆   Construction Trends: Dense populations within the Northeast region’s large
                                                                                            cities help to drive demand for health care; increasingly, however, more hos-
                                                                                            pitals are choosing to expand and office space is springing up in suburban
                                                                                            areas where young families are locating. Developers are expected to com-
                                                                                            plete of 1.3 million square feet of medical office space in 2009, the majority of
                                                                                            which will be in these growing areas. This year’s deliveries will be down 25
                                       Construction by Region                               percent from 2008.
                                                  2008     2009*
                                  8
                                                                                        ◆   Rent/Vacancy Trends: Vacancy is forecast to increase again this year as
    Square Feet (millions)




                                  6
                                                                                            development continues to precede demand. After climbing 40 basis points in
                                                                                            2008 on the heels of a ramp-up in construction, vacancy is projected to rise 50
                                  4                                                         basis points to 9.8 percent. As such, owners are expected to cut rents, fol-
                                                                                            lowing a 2.7 percent bump last year. Robust development in Northern New
                                  2                                                         Jersey will effect a 50 basis point jump in vacancy, although moderate
                                                                                            demand will enable local owners to hold rents relatively firm at slightly less
                                  0                                                         than $25.00 per square foot.
                                         NE       SE     Midwest     SW/    W/Pacific
                                                                   Mountain   NW
    * Forecast
    Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., TWR              ◆   Investment Trends: Investors’ interest in the Northeast region remains
                                                                                            strong as comparatively healthy fundamentals lure buyers. Investment activ-
                                                                                            ity surged last year, with transaction velocity jumping 21 percent. The medi-
                                                                                            an price dropped 3 percent to $195 per square foot, while cap rates averaged
                                                                                            in the low-7 percent range.
Regional definitions are available on page 4.

page 2                                                                                                                   Marcus & Millichap   ◆   Medical Office Research Report
SOUTHEAST
◆   Construction Trends: After completing 2.3 million square feet in 2008, devel-
    opers are forecast to deliver 4 million square feet of space this year. Nearly 40                                                 Vacancy by Region: 4Q08
    percent of the projects are located in Florida, slightly above the state’s five-                                            20%
    year annual average.
                                                                                                                                15%




                                                                                        Vacancy Rate
◆   Rent/Vacancy Trends: Robust development resulted in a 150 basis point
    jump in vacancy last year to 11.6 percent. Vacancy is forecast to rise approxi-                                             10%
    mately 100 basis points in 2009 as new product comes online. The long-term
                                                                                                                                5%
    outlook for the region’s popular retiree locales remains favorable, however,
    as healthy population gains in older age cohorts will support increased                                                     0%
    demand for space. Nonetheless, asking rents are expected to fall until vacan-                                                     W/Pacific     NE   Midwest       SE       SW/    U.S.
                                                                                                                                        NW                                    Mountain Avg.
    cy moderates, with the largest corrections projected in central Florida.
                                                                                        Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.

◆   Investment Trends: Expectations for solid long-term fundamentals will con-
    tinue to support investors’ interest in the region. Sales activity rose again in
    2008, with both transaction volume and dollar volume growing from the pre-
    vious year. The median price, however, dropped by about 1 percent to $202
    per square foot, while cap rates increased 40 basis points to 7.9 percent.

MIDWEST
◆   Construction Trends: Medical office developers remain active in the
                                                                                                                                 Asking Rents by Region: 4Q08
    Midwest, fueled by robust demand from growing health care and bio-




                                                                                        Avg. Asking Rent per Square Foot
    research facilities in Ohio. Completions in the region continue to average                                                  $40
    approximately 3 percent of inventory, with roughly 4.4 million square feet of
                                                                                                                                $30
    space forecast for delivery this year.

◆   Rent/Vacancy Trends: New additions to stock will be met with solid                                                          $20

    demand, keeping vacancy from spiking considerably. After ticking up 20
                                                                                                                                $10
    basis points last year to 11 percent, vacancy is expected to register a similar
    bump in 2009. As a result, owners in the Midwest are forecast to cut rents this                                              $0
    year to keep vacancy in check.                                                                                                    Midwest       SE     SW/         NE     W/Pacific U.S.
                                                                                                                                                         Mountain               NW      Avg.

◆   Investment Trends: Investor demand remains strong in the Midwest, with              Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., REIS

    transaction activity up slightly in 2008. Increased demand put modest
    upward pressure on prices last year, as the median price inched up 5 percent
    to $146 per square foot. Cap rates, meanwhile, compressed 30 basis points to
    an average of 8.1 percent.

SOUTHWEST/MOUNTAIN
◆   Construction Trends: After several years of robust completions in excess of 4
    percent of inventory annually, medical office construction is beginning to
                                                                                                                                  Medical Office Sales Trends
    slow in the Southwest as increasing vacancy and the sour economy dampen
                                                                                                                                                  Median Price per Square Foot
    builder sentiment. This year, developers are forecast to deliver 3 million
                                                                                                 Median Price per Square Foot




                                                                                                                                                  Average Cap Rate
                                                                                                                                $250                                                    10%
    square feet of space, adding 2.3 percent to inventory.
                                                                                                                                                                                               Average Cap Rate




                                                                                                                                $200                                                    9%
◆   Rent/Vacancy Trends: In 2008, heightened construction activity generated a
    180 basis point jump in vacancy to 13.2 percent. Vacancy is forecast to con-                                                $150                                                    8%
    tinue rising in 2009 as economic conditions are magnified by the lingering
    effects of last year’s deliveries. After advancing through mid-2008 and then                                                $100                                                    7%

    mitigating through the second half, rents are expected to fall this year as own-
                                                                                                                                 $50                                                    6%
    ers seek to keep increasing vacancy rates restrained. Phoenix will be especial-                                                      03       04     05      06      07       08
    ly hard-hit, with vacancy in the metro forecast to approach 20 percent.                      * Estimate
                                                                                                 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.

◆   Investment Trends: In 2008, investment activity for medical office product
    slowed in the region, with dollar volume falling almost 20 percent and the
    number of sales dropping approximately 30 percent. The median price rose
    slightly and currently is in the $200 per square foot range, while cap rates con-
    tinue to average at the mid-7 percent level.                                                                                                         Regional definitions are available on page 4.

Marcus & Millichap   ◆   Medical Office Research Report                                                                                                                                     page 3
WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST
                                                                                                                    ◆   Construction Trends: In the West/Pacific Northwest region, developers are
                                                                                                                        pulling back on deliveries, particularly in Riverside-San Bernardino and Las
HEALTHCARE REAL ESTATE GROUP
                                                                                                                        Vegas. Completions in the region will drop by more than 60 percent this year
                                                                                                                        as inventory expands just 1 percent, compared with an average annual stock
Marcus & Millichap’s Healthcare Real Estate                                                                             increase of nearly 4 percent over the past several years.
Group is comprised of real estate investment
professionals who specialize in healthcare prop-                                                                    ◆   Rent/Vacancy Trends: Despite a substantial contingent of retirees and grow-
erties nationwide. In addition to offering spe-                                                                         ing populations, the region will continue to record increased vacancy,
cialized market knowledge, members of the
Healthcare Real Estate Group are able to the
                                                                                                                        spurred by recessionary conditions and high development levels in 2008.
leverage the firm’s network of more than 1,300                                                                          Nonetheless, vacancy in the region remains the lowest in the nation at 9.2
investment professionals to help clients meet                                                                           percent. Rents are not expected to rise this year, hampered by elevated
their investment objectives.                                                                                            vacancy levels. Las Vegas will be hardest-hit, with vacancy forecast to climb
For information on Marcus & Millichap’s                                                                                 again in 2009 after jumping more than 400 basis points over the past 12
Healthcare Real Estate Group, contact:                                                                                  months to approximately 21 percent.
Alan Pontius
Managing Director                                                                                                   ◆   Investment Trends: Transaction volume fell roughly 20 percent in 2008, fol-
Tel: (415) 963-3000                                                                                                     lowing record activity in the preceding year. The median price rose more
apontius@marcusmillichap.com
                                                                                                                        than 10 percent last year to $300 per square foot, while cap rates remained in
                                                                                                                        the low-7 percent range, as investors continued on their flight to quality
                                                                                                                        assets. Increasing vacancy and falling revenue streams are expected to damp-
                                                                                                                        en activity in 2009, however, with cap rates climbing regionwide.


                                                                                                                   SALES HIGHLIGHTS
                                                                                                                   Property Name                                                         City, State                                   Sales Price            Square Feet           Price/SF
                                                                                                                   Palisade Physical Therapy                                             Palisades Park, NJ                          $3,000,000                  4,812                $623
                                                                                                                   Valley Medical Day Surgery                                            Renton, WA                                  $3,300,000                  7,578                $435
                                                                                                                   Valley West Medical                                                   Los Gatos, CA                               $4,300,000                 11,005                $418
                                                                                                                   University Medical Center                                             Las Vegas, NV                               $7,000,000                 17,874                $392
                                                                                                                   Magruder Eye Institute                                                Orlando, FL                                $12,737,300                 34,422                $370
                                                                                                                   Medical Office Buildings                                              Menomonee Falls, WI                        $34,000,000                 92,264                $369
                                                                                                                   Mills Breast Cancer Institute                                         Urbana, IL                                 $11,246,000                 32,290                $348
                                                                                                                   Cancer Care Center of Thornton                                        Thornton, CO                                $6,500,000                 18,825                $345
                                                                                                                   Southwest Kidney Institute                                            Phoenix, AZ                                 $6,058,000                 17,979                $337
                                                                                                                   University Medical                                                    Washington, D.C.                           $23,577,952                 82,452                $286
                                                                                                                   Valley Family Practice Clinic                                         Renton, WA                                  $3,200,000                 11,430                $280
                                                                                                                   Medical Office Buildings                                              Las Vegas, NV                               $1,920,000                  8,000                $240
                                                                                                                   North Hills Professional Plaza                                        Brea, CA                                    $2,615,000                 11,800                $222
                                                                                                                   Desert Cove Medical Building                                          Scottsdale, AZ                              $1,575,000                  7,269                $217
                                                                                                                   Fuller-Ashland Medical Building                                       Chicago, IL                                 $1,540,000                  7,855                $196
                                                                                                                   Marietta Park                                                         Marietta, GA                               $15,300,000                 81,102                $189
                                                                                                                   California Cancer & Research Institute                                Pleasant Hill, CA                          $11,700,000                 62,946                $186
                                                                                                                   Taylor Station Medical                                                Columbus, OH                                $2,350,000                 12,792                $184
                                                 Prepared and edited by
                                                                                                                   Health One                                                            Thornton, CO                                $1,080,000                  6,032                $179
                                                         Thomas Hershey
                                                             Senior Analyst                                        Bacon East & West Medical Center                                      Concord, CA                                 $4,700,000                 27,613                $170
                                                           Research Services
                                                                                                                   Taft Building                                                         Pembroke Pines, FL                          $3,500,000                 20,639                $170
                                          For information on national                                              South Beaches Medical Center                                          Jacksonville Beach, FL                      $1,200,000                  7,169                $167
                                                 office trends, contact
                                                                                                                   Academy Medical Plaza                                                 Philadelphia, PA                            $1,950,000                 14,267                $137
                                                                   John Chang
                                      National Research Manager
                                                                                                                   Regional Definitions:
                                               Tel: (602) 952-9669
                                                                                                                   Midwest: Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis
                                john.chang@marcusmillichap.com
                                                                                                                   Northeast: Boston, New York City, Northern New Jersey, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C.
                                                                                                                   Southeast: Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, South Florida, Tampa
                                                                                                                   Mountain/Southwest: Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver, Houston, Phoenix, Tucson
                                          © Marcus & Millichap 2009                                                West/Pacific Northwest: Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Orange County, Portland, Riverside-San
                                          www.MarcusMillichap.com                                                  Bernardino, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle

The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no representation, warranty or guarantee, express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the informa-
tion contained herein. Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CoStar Group, Inc., Economy.com, TWR/Dodge Pipeline, U.S. Census Bureau.

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Marcus Millichap 2009 Medical Office Report

  • 1. First Half 2009 MEDICAL OFFICE SECTOR REMAINS HEALTHY IN AILING ECONOMY Unlike other asset types, medical office properties continue to garner investor demand by exhibiting consider- able resistance to the economic downturn. Nonetheless, there are locales across the country where medical office assets are underperforming, and in many instances, there is upward pressure on vacancy. The segment, however, is holding up better than other product types. Much of the economic resilience tempting investors can be attributed to the positive state of the health care industry. The nation spends over $2 trillion on health care annually, more than double U.S. expenditures on food, and health care spending is projected to exceed $3 trillion by 2013. In fact, med- ical outlays have increased by an annual average of 7.7 percent over the past 10 years and now comprise 17 percent of GDP. The rise in spending is facilitated by growth in the number of residents over 55 years old, a group that will expand nearly 20 percent through 2013. Furthermore, people will continue to seek medical care for illness and pre- ventative reasons, despite a recent slowdown in costly elective procedures. Another demand driver for medical office space has been the shift of medical care from an inpatient to outpa- tient focus. Hospital construction costs have skyrocketed to an estimated $1 million per bed, prompting facilities to downsize. In the past, hospitals often supported 800 beds, but many new facilities contain fewer than 100 beds, necessitating more off-site services. As such, care at physicians’ offices and visits to ambulatory and diagnostic offices have increased significantly in recent years, generating demand for space. Other construction trends that focus on a property’s visibility and ease of accessibility also are becoming popular. Among these are medical malls, or health care offices located in mixed-use projects. Going forward, these trends are expected to gain momentum as hospitals continue to scale back on exportable patient care, further buttressing demand for medical office space. As a result of forecasts for continued increases in demand, the need for medical workers will remain strong. While almost every other employment sector is contracting, the medical field is adding jobs, albeit at a far more modest pace than the average annual gain of 382,000 employees over the last eight years. The slowdown is due pri- marily to mild reductions in consumer medical spending. Approximately 52,000 positions have been created in the sector so far this year, and another 200,000 workers are expected by year end. More than 2.4 million health care jobs are forecast to be generated through 2013. The most significant gains are projected for Sun Belt states such as Texas and Florida, where retiring baby boomers are likely to settle. Increased hiring also has facilitated a 17 percent jump in medical school enrollment over the past two years, while the nation continues to undergo a nursing shortage. Nonetheless, of the 420,000 medical positions created in 2008, 168,000 were for registered nurses. Health Care Spending Trends Health Care Employment Trends Health Care Spending Nonfarm Employment Spending Growth Health Care Employment $4 10% 6% Total Spending (trillions) $3 8% 4% Annual Growth Job Growth $2 6% 2% $1 4% 0% $0 2% -2% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*10*11*12*13* 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09* * Forecast * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc. Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Economy.com
  • 2. NATIONAL TRENDS ◆ Demographic Trends: The aging population continues to support expan- Population Growth by Age Group sion in the medical office market, although the struggling economy has put 2000-2008 6% a damper on recent exuberance. Mounting requirements for expanded 2009-2013* Avg. Annual Percent Change health care remain centered on the maturing population, particularly in 4% the nation’s retiree havens. Over the next five years, the population of those between the ages of 65 and 74 will increase 24 percent nationwide 2% and nearly 30 percent in the Southeast and Southwest combined. 0% ◆ Construction Trends: In response to increased demand for medical space, -2% developers have ramped up deliveries since 2003. Completions peaked last Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 0-4 5-19 20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ year at more than 17 million square feet of space. Almost one-third of the * Forecast new inventory came online in the Southwest, where a once-booming hous- Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau ing market and robust population growth supported demand. Despite the strength of medical office properties, the current economy has prompted developers to cut deliveries for the foreseeable future. Completions are forecast to drop to 14.1 million square feet this year, or an inventory expan- sion of 2.6 percent. ◆ Rent/Vacancy Trends: Uncertainties in the economy, including layoffs and corporate benefit cuts, have prompted many consumers to forgo routine Fastest-Growing Metros: 2009-2013* health care and some elective procedures. The resulting decrease in demand Age 55 and Older will contribute to pushing vacancy up 100 basis points this year to 12.4 per- 26% cent. Consequently, after finishing 2008 up 1 percent at $24.60 per square Percent Growth 24% foot, asking rents are expected to dip roughly 2.7 percent by year end. 22% ◆ Investment Trends: Demand for medical office assets remains strong, 20% although transaction levels in 2008 were down 15 percent from those recorded a year earlier. Cap rates have climbed over the past year to the 18% high-7 percent to low-8 percent range, fueled by tightening underwriting h SB a o tte on as x in ac nt ni nd t P ust eg e- cs lo Be la oe la standards and adjusting buyer expectations. At the close of 2008, the medi- sV id ar Tu At A Or Ph m rs Ch La al ve an price was up 1 percent from the previous year at $210 per square foot. Ri es * Forecast W Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau NORTHEAST ◆ Construction Trends: Dense populations within the Northeast region’s large cities help to drive demand for health care; increasingly, however, more hos- pitals are choosing to expand and office space is springing up in suburban areas where young families are locating. Developers are expected to com- plete of 1.3 million square feet of medical office space in 2009, the majority of which will be in these growing areas. This year’s deliveries will be down 25 Construction by Region percent from 2008. 2008 2009* 8 ◆ Rent/Vacancy Trends: Vacancy is forecast to increase again this year as Square Feet (millions) 6 development continues to precede demand. After climbing 40 basis points in 2008 on the heels of a ramp-up in construction, vacancy is projected to rise 50 4 basis points to 9.8 percent. As such, owners are expected to cut rents, fol- lowing a 2.7 percent bump last year. Robust development in Northern New 2 Jersey will effect a 50 basis point jump in vacancy, although moderate demand will enable local owners to hold rents relatively firm at slightly less 0 than $25.00 per square foot. NE SE Midwest SW/ W/Pacific Mountain NW * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., TWR ◆ Investment Trends: Investors’ interest in the Northeast region remains strong as comparatively healthy fundamentals lure buyers. Investment activ- ity surged last year, with transaction velocity jumping 21 percent. The medi- an price dropped 3 percent to $195 per square foot, while cap rates averaged in the low-7 percent range. Regional definitions are available on page 4. page 2 Marcus & Millichap ◆ Medical Office Research Report
  • 3. SOUTHEAST ◆ Construction Trends: After completing 2.3 million square feet in 2008, devel- opers are forecast to deliver 4 million square feet of space this year. Nearly 40 Vacancy by Region: 4Q08 percent of the projects are located in Florida, slightly above the state’s five- 20% year annual average. 15% Vacancy Rate ◆ Rent/Vacancy Trends: Robust development resulted in a 150 basis point jump in vacancy last year to 11.6 percent. Vacancy is forecast to rise approxi- 10% mately 100 basis points in 2009 as new product comes online. The long-term 5% outlook for the region’s popular retiree locales remains favorable, however, as healthy population gains in older age cohorts will support increased 0% demand for space. Nonetheless, asking rents are expected to fall until vacan- W/Pacific NE Midwest SE SW/ U.S. NW Mountain Avg. cy moderates, with the largest corrections projected in central Florida. Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc. ◆ Investment Trends: Expectations for solid long-term fundamentals will con- tinue to support investors’ interest in the region. Sales activity rose again in 2008, with both transaction volume and dollar volume growing from the pre- vious year. The median price, however, dropped by about 1 percent to $202 per square foot, while cap rates increased 40 basis points to 7.9 percent. MIDWEST ◆ Construction Trends: Medical office developers remain active in the Asking Rents by Region: 4Q08 Midwest, fueled by robust demand from growing health care and bio- Avg. Asking Rent per Square Foot research facilities in Ohio. Completions in the region continue to average $40 approximately 3 percent of inventory, with roughly 4.4 million square feet of $30 space forecast for delivery this year. ◆ Rent/Vacancy Trends: New additions to stock will be met with solid $20 demand, keeping vacancy from spiking considerably. After ticking up 20 $10 basis points last year to 11 percent, vacancy is expected to register a similar bump in 2009. As a result, owners in the Midwest are forecast to cut rents this $0 year to keep vacancy in check. Midwest SE SW/ NE W/Pacific U.S. Mountain NW Avg. ◆ Investment Trends: Investor demand remains strong in the Midwest, with Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., REIS transaction activity up slightly in 2008. Increased demand put modest upward pressure on prices last year, as the median price inched up 5 percent to $146 per square foot. Cap rates, meanwhile, compressed 30 basis points to an average of 8.1 percent. SOUTHWEST/MOUNTAIN ◆ Construction Trends: After several years of robust completions in excess of 4 percent of inventory annually, medical office construction is beginning to Medical Office Sales Trends slow in the Southwest as increasing vacancy and the sour economy dampen Median Price per Square Foot builder sentiment. This year, developers are forecast to deliver 3 million Median Price per Square Foot Average Cap Rate $250 10% square feet of space, adding 2.3 percent to inventory. Average Cap Rate $200 9% ◆ Rent/Vacancy Trends: In 2008, heightened construction activity generated a 180 basis point jump in vacancy to 13.2 percent. Vacancy is forecast to con- $150 8% tinue rising in 2009 as economic conditions are magnified by the lingering effects of last year’s deliveries. After advancing through mid-2008 and then $100 7% mitigating through the second half, rents are expected to fall this year as own- $50 6% ers seek to keep increasing vacancy rates restrained. Phoenix will be especial- 03 04 05 06 07 08 ly hard-hit, with vacancy in the metro forecast to approach 20 percent. * Estimate Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc. ◆ Investment Trends: In 2008, investment activity for medical office product slowed in the region, with dollar volume falling almost 20 percent and the number of sales dropping approximately 30 percent. The median price rose slightly and currently is in the $200 per square foot range, while cap rates con- tinue to average at the mid-7 percent level. Regional definitions are available on page 4. Marcus & Millichap ◆ Medical Office Research Report page 3
  • 4. WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST ◆ Construction Trends: In the West/Pacific Northwest region, developers are pulling back on deliveries, particularly in Riverside-San Bernardino and Las HEALTHCARE REAL ESTATE GROUP Vegas. Completions in the region will drop by more than 60 percent this year as inventory expands just 1 percent, compared with an average annual stock Marcus & Millichap’s Healthcare Real Estate increase of nearly 4 percent over the past several years. Group is comprised of real estate investment professionals who specialize in healthcare prop- ◆ Rent/Vacancy Trends: Despite a substantial contingent of retirees and grow- erties nationwide. In addition to offering spe- ing populations, the region will continue to record increased vacancy, cialized market knowledge, members of the Healthcare Real Estate Group are able to the spurred by recessionary conditions and high development levels in 2008. leverage the firm’s network of more than 1,300 Nonetheless, vacancy in the region remains the lowest in the nation at 9.2 investment professionals to help clients meet percent. Rents are not expected to rise this year, hampered by elevated their investment objectives. vacancy levels. Las Vegas will be hardest-hit, with vacancy forecast to climb For information on Marcus & Millichap’s again in 2009 after jumping more than 400 basis points over the past 12 Healthcare Real Estate Group, contact: months to approximately 21 percent. Alan Pontius Managing Director ◆ Investment Trends: Transaction volume fell roughly 20 percent in 2008, fol- Tel: (415) 963-3000 lowing record activity in the preceding year. The median price rose more apontius@marcusmillichap.com than 10 percent last year to $300 per square foot, while cap rates remained in the low-7 percent range, as investors continued on their flight to quality assets. Increasing vacancy and falling revenue streams are expected to damp- en activity in 2009, however, with cap rates climbing regionwide. SALES HIGHLIGHTS Property Name City, State Sales Price Square Feet Price/SF Palisade Physical Therapy Palisades Park, NJ $3,000,000 4,812 $623 Valley Medical Day Surgery Renton, WA $3,300,000 7,578 $435 Valley West Medical Los Gatos, CA $4,300,000 11,005 $418 University Medical Center Las Vegas, NV $7,000,000 17,874 $392 Magruder Eye Institute Orlando, FL $12,737,300 34,422 $370 Medical Office Buildings Menomonee Falls, WI $34,000,000 92,264 $369 Mills Breast Cancer Institute Urbana, IL $11,246,000 32,290 $348 Cancer Care Center of Thornton Thornton, CO $6,500,000 18,825 $345 Southwest Kidney Institute Phoenix, AZ $6,058,000 17,979 $337 University Medical Washington, D.C. $23,577,952 82,452 $286 Valley Family Practice Clinic Renton, WA $3,200,000 11,430 $280 Medical Office Buildings Las Vegas, NV $1,920,000 8,000 $240 North Hills Professional Plaza Brea, CA $2,615,000 11,800 $222 Desert Cove Medical Building Scottsdale, AZ $1,575,000 7,269 $217 Fuller-Ashland Medical Building Chicago, IL $1,540,000 7,855 $196 Marietta Park Marietta, GA $15,300,000 81,102 $189 California Cancer & Research Institute Pleasant Hill, CA $11,700,000 62,946 $186 Taylor Station Medical Columbus, OH $2,350,000 12,792 $184 Prepared and edited by Health One Thornton, CO $1,080,000 6,032 $179 Thomas Hershey Senior Analyst Bacon East & West Medical Center Concord, CA $4,700,000 27,613 $170 Research Services Taft Building Pembroke Pines, FL $3,500,000 20,639 $170 For information on national South Beaches Medical Center Jacksonville Beach, FL $1,200,000 7,169 $167 office trends, contact Academy Medical Plaza Philadelphia, PA $1,950,000 14,267 $137 John Chang National Research Manager Regional Definitions: Tel: (602) 952-9669 Midwest: Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis john.chang@marcusmillichap.com Northeast: Boston, New York City, Northern New Jersey, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. Southeast: Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, South Florida, Tampa Mountain/Southwest: Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver, Houston, Phoenix, Tucson © Marcus & Millichap 2009 West/Pacific Northwest: Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Orange County, Portland, Riverside-San www.MarcusMillichap.com Bernardino, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no representation, warranty or guarantee, express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the informa- tion contained herein. Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CoStar Group, Inc., Economy.com, TWR/Dodge Pipeline, U.S. Census Bureau.