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NYS County Highway Superintendents
           Association

      Summer Conference


      Asset Management
 Data Collection, Prioritization,
      Estimating, Funding


        August 29, 2011
Course Outline


             Objective


Present a method of keeping track of
 maintenance & repair needs and to
   develop a documented plan for
      addressing these needs
5 Core Questions to Asset
            Management
1. What is the current state of my assets?

2. What is my required “sustainable” level of service?

3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance?

4. What are my minimum life cycle costs?

5. What is my best long-term funding strategy?
5 Core Questions to Asset
              Management
1. What is the current state of my assets?

   •   What do I own ?
   •   Where is it ?
   •   What condition is it in ?
   •   What are the Maintenance Needs/Costs ?
   •   What is the Replacement or Repair Cost ?
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
             What do I Own ?
• Roadways
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
             What do I Own ?
• Roadways
Question #1
    What is the Current State of My Assets ?
                     What do I Own ?
•    Roadways – Roadside Area, Vegetation, Trees
•    Bridges
•    Culverts – Other Drainage
•    Guiderail
•    Signs
•    Traffic Signals
•    Retaining Walls
•    Equipment - Trucks, Plows, Computers, Heavy Equip.
•    Buildings – Office, Garages, Salt Sheds
Question #1
  What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Minnewaska State Park Preserve and
         Mohonk Preserve

  Carriage Road Restoration and
        Maintenance Manual
        And GIS database


           NYS OPRHP
     Palisades Interstate Park
            Commission
Question #1
  What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Minnewaska State Park Preserve and
         Mohonk Preserve

    •   Locate Assets
    •   Assess Condition and Needs
    •   Design Repairs
    •   Recommend Maintenance - type, interval, etc.
    •   Inventory their Equipment and Materials
    •   Obtain local rental, lease, and purchase costs
    •   Specify materials, locate sources, & costs
    •   Design interactive GIS System
    •   User Friendly and Dynamic
    •   User Manual and Electronic Data deliverable
Question #1
  What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Minnewaska State Park Preserve and
         Mohonk Preserve

        Assets:

    •   Roads (65 miles)
    •   Culverts
    •   Ditches, Swales, Drainage
    •   Retaining Walls              Same as a Typical
    •   Vegetative Clearing          Rural Highway System
    •   Bridges
    •   Guide Rail (boulders)
    •   Equipment, Vehicles
Question #1
  What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Minnewaska State Park Preserve and
         Mohonk Preserve




 • What do I own ?
 • Where is it ?
 • What condition is it in ?
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
   Locate, Document, and Rate Assets

• Photograph and Locate With GPS
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
• Photograph and Locate all Assets

                                Narrow Roads
                                Brush
                                Vegetation

                                Truck not Practical


                                Rented a “Gator”
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?

• Photograph and Locate all Assets
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?

• Photograph and Locate all Assets
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?

• Photograph and Locate all Assets
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?

• Photograph and Locate all Assets
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?

• Photograph and Locate all Assets

  •   1800+ photographs
  •   Averaged 4.5 miles per day
  •   Coordinates recorded for each Photo
  •   Entered into a GIS database
  •   Coordinated with Road Locations on NYS Coordinates
  •   Link pictures to the GIS Points
Standardized Condition Ratings

                    Must Be Consistent
Standardized Condition Ratings
Standardized Condition Ratings
Standardized Condition Ratings
Standardized Condition Ratings
PDH Question # 1

                   True or False

     Descriptions of Assets must be Consistent to
       Sustain a Long Term Management Strategy




                      True
Standardized Condition Ratings

Assign Colors to Represent Condition Ratings

      Easily Recognized in GIS Format
              On Data Sheets
      When looking at big picture views
Question #1
             Basic GIS Program – ARC Map

What is the Current State ofDatabases
             Program and Link My Assets ?
Question #1
             Basic GIS Program – ARC Map

What is the Current State ofDatabases
             Program and Link My Assets ?
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
Question #1
What is the Turn on theStateShowing Assets ?
            Current Layer of My Culverts
Turn on the Layer Showing Rock Walls
Click on a Wall
Road Condition Example
Road Condition Example




“Click” on the Road
Road Name
            Stationing
Road Condition Example




“Click” on Photo Point
Standardized Condition Ratings
            Bridges
Standardized Condition Ratings
            Bridges
Updating Conditions

       Simple Procedure

•   Print out Sheet from Excel
•   Take to the Field - Condition Sheets
•   Use Standardized Rating System
•   Take Digital Photos (GPS optional)
•   Mark it up
•   Edit in Excel just like a spreadsheet
•   Markup to GIS person
•   Photograph Updates - Basic Program
Updating Conditions




                      File Name
                           &
                       Location
Updating Conditions
       Photographs               08/21/2009


•     Basic Programs
•     Photoshop Elements - $80
•     Either Replace or Merge

                                         Photo Update Example


    Recommend Merging Photos      Easy to document even the
    Keeps Photo Records Simple    smallest of rehab tasks
Updating Conditions
        Photographs              08/21/2009


•     Basic Programs
•     Photoshop Elements - $80
•     Either Replace or Merge



    Recommend Merging Photos
    Keeps Photo Records Simple

    Easy to document even the
    smallest of rehab tasks      08/21/2011
Question #1
What is the Current State of My Assets ?

  • What do I own ?
  • Where is it ?
  • What condition is it in ?
  • What are the Maintenance Needs/Costs ?
  • What is the Replacement or Repair Cost ?
Maintenance and Repair

Minnewaska State Park Preserve &
        Mohonk Preserve

•   Reasonably detailed explanation
•   Historic Importance                   and


•   Part time workers
•   Volunteers
•   Consistency in Appearance
•   Inexperience with type of work
•   Proven methods from other Parks
Maintenance and Repair
Maintenance and Repair

Determine what work can be performed
        with equipment already available

•       Equipment Owned, Condition
•       Equipment Shared




    Determine what equipment is needed
    that is not owned or shared


    •    Rental, Leasing, Locations
    •    Capital Investments, $$$$
Maintenance and Repair
     Equipment Lists
Maintenance and Repair
     Equipment Costs
Maintenance and Repair
      Labor Costs
Maintenance and Repair


Using Excel Spreadsheets

•   Labor Cost
•   Material Cost
•   Equipment Cost
•   Fuel Costs
•   Construction Time


Unit Costs Determined For
Each Operation
Maintenance and Repair
Maintenance and Repair




Note: Bridge and Retaining Wall Needs were handled
       on an individual basis
Maintenance and Repair
Maintenance and Repair
Back to the Beginning Review
    What is the Current State of My Assets ?
                     What do I Own ?
•    Roadways – Roadside Area, Vegetation, Trees
•    Bridges
•    Culverts – Other Drainage
•    Guiderail
•    Signs
•    Traffic Signals
•    Retaining Walls
•    Equipment - Trucks, Plows, Computers
•    Buildings – Office, Garages, Salt Sheds
Back to the Beginning Review
What is the Current State of My Assets ?
                 What do I Own ?



Complete Package and GIS database Extremely Flexible
Asset Management Core
                    Question #2

    What is my required “sustainable” level of service?


•    What is the demand for services ?
•    When is service not functional ?
•    What is required by Regulations, Standards?
•    What is the actual performance ?
•    What is the Public Image?
Asset Management Core
                    Question #3

    Which assets are critical to sustained performance?

•   How can it fail ?
•   What is the likelihood of failure ?
•   What does it cost to repair ?
•   What are the consequences of failure ?
•   Can it remain an asset until complete failure ?

              An Extension of Risk Management
PDH Question # 2

                   True or False


    Identifying Critical Assets is part of
              Risk Management



                       True
PDH Question # 2.5

                 True or False


 Media Reporters Frequently “Get it Right”




                     False
Asset Management Core
               Question #4

What are my minimum life cycle costs?


•   Maintenance Minimums?
•   Equipment - Lease, Rent, Purchase?
•   Paving Program ?
•   Dealing with Escalation of Costs ?
Asset Management Core
              Question #5

What is my best long-term funding strategy?

•   Capital rehabilitation
•   Capital replacement
•   Changes to operating procedures
•   Changes to maintenance procedures
•   Demand management
•   Reduction of level(s) of service
•   Improvement in response or recovery
PDH Question # 3
        Which is NOT one of the 5 Core Questions
                  of Asset Management

   1. What is the current state of my assets ?

   2. What is my required “sustainable” level of service ?

   3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance ?

   4. What is my best long-term funding strategy ?

   5. What brand of coffee should we use in the office ?

   6. What are my minimum life cycle costs ?
PDH Question # 3
        Which is NOT one of the 5 Core Questions
                  of Asset Management

   1. What is the current state of my assets ?

   2. What is my required “sustainable” level of service ?

   3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance ?

   4. What is my best long-term funding strategy ?

   5. What brand of coffee should we use in the office ?

   6. What are my minimum life cycle costs ?
PDH Question # 4

                   True or False

       An Asset Management Process includes

       Wisdom, Knowledge, Information, Data



                     True
Questions?




 Contact Information

Tom Baird, P.E., CPESC, CESSWI

   Barton and Loguidice, P.C.
         10 Airline Drive
        Albany, NY 12205
         (518) 218 -1801
 tbaird@bartonandloguidice.com
Accident Prediction Model




http://www.tfhrc.gov/safety/pubs/99207/index.htm
                                                   Source: FHWA, 2000
Crash Reduction Factors




http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/tools/crf/resources/fhwasa08011/
                                                        Source: FHWA
Accident Prediction Model
  • FHWA-RD-99-207
http://www.tfhrc.gov/safety/pubs/99207/index.htm
  • Rural two-lane highways
  • Based on:
     • Historical accident data
     • Regression analyses
     • Before/After studies
     • Expert judgments by panel
       of engineers
  • Two major components:
     • Base accident rate
     • Accident Modification
       Factors (AMF)
                                                   Source: FHWA, 2000
Accident Prediction Model

NBR = Base Accident Rate

NBR = ADT x L x 365    (Units = accidents/year)
       106 x e0.4865

NRS = Expected Accident Rate

NRS = NBR x {AMF1 x AMF2 x AMF3… x AMF9}


                                          Source: FHWA
Accident Modification Factors

•   Lane Width
•   Shoulder Width/Type
•   Roadside Hazard Rating
•   Driveway Density
•   Horizontal Curvature
•   Superelevation Deficiency
•   Vertical Curvature/Grade
•   Two-way left turn lanes
•   Passing lane/short 4-lane sections

                                         Source: FHWA
Project Example
         Washington County Road 42




Look at expected accident rate before and after
                 improvements
Project Needs
              Safety Improvements Needed
                   Accident Analysis
               June 1, 1999 through May 21, 2001
 Location                                                   More Than
                                                              3.8 X
CR 42/East/                              1.36
 Mahaffy


Statewide            0.35
 Average


                          1.0                  2.0
                     Accidents Per Million Entry Vehicles
Washington CR 42

• NBR base rate calculation

  • ADT = 3,965 vehicles/day ETC (2007)
  • L = 0.25 mile (1300 ft)

  • NBR = 3965 x 0.25 x 365
            106 x e0.4865

         = 0.219 accidents per year (non-
         intersection-related) for entire segment
AMF1 – Lane Width




                    Source: FHWA
AMF1 – Lane Width

CR 42 – ADT = 3,965 veh/day

                            Before           After
Lane Width                 11 feet          12 feet
AMFchart                    1.05             1.00

Adjustment (50%)
Accounts for Accident
Distribution by Lane




AMF1                        1.03             1.00
CR 42 Expected Accident Rate
   Accident Modification Factor    Before   After
1 – Lane Width                      1.03    1.00
2 – Shoulder Width/Type
3 – Roadside Hazard Rating
4 – Driveway Density
5 – Horizontal Curvature
6 – Superelevation Deficiency
7 – Vertical Curvature/Grade
8 – Two-way Left Turn Lanes
9 – Passing Lane/4-lane sections

             AMF1xAMF2…xAMF9          ---      ---
AMF2 – Shoulder Width/Type
CR 42 – ADT = 3,965 veh/day

               Before          After
Shoulder Width 2 feet         4 feet
AMFwidth        1.30           1.15
Shoulder Type Composite       Paved
AMFtype         1.02           1.00

Adjustment 50%

AMF2             1.16         1.08
Adding Paved Shoulder
       AMF = 1.50                   AMF = 1.15




If Shoulder = 4’ Paved + 4’ Grass     AMF = 0.92
      If Shoulder = 8’ Paved   AMF = 0.87
CR 42 Expected Accident Rate
   Accident Modification Factor    Before   After
1 – Lane Width                      1.03    1.00
2 – Shoulder Width/Type             1.16    1.08
3 – Roadside Hazard Rating
4 – Driveway Density
5 – Horizontal Curvature
6 – Superelevation Deficiency
7 – Vertical Curvature/Grade
8 – Two-way Left Turn Lanes
9 – Passing Lane/4-lane sections

             AMF1xAMF2…xAMF9          ---      ---
AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating


• Base/assumed value = 3

• Depends on slopes, clear zone, etc.

• Rating 1 to 7, 1 = Best case




                                        Source: FHWA
AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating

Examples:        RHR=1
AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating

Examples:        RHR=3
AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating

Examples:        RHR= 6 and 7
AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating

Examples:        RHR= ??
Clear Zone
Clear Zone
10% to 20% of fixed object accidents are in
           Repeat Locations
Clear Zone
10% to 20% of fixed object accidents are in
            Repeat Locations
AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating

CR 42

                 Before         After
RHR                5              1



Convert to AMF

AMF3              1.14          0.875
CR 42 Expected Accident Rate
   Accident Modification Factor    Before   After
1 – Lane Width                      1.03    1.00
2 – Shoulder Width/Type             1.16    1.08
3 – Roadside Hazard Rating          1.14    0.875
4 – Driveway Density                1.18    1.18
5 – Horizontal Curvature            1.44    1.16
6 – Superelevation Deficiency       1.06    1.00
7 – Vertical Curvature/Grade        1.11    1.08
8 – Two-way Left Turn Lanes         1.00    1.00
9 – Passing Lane/4-lane sections    1.00    1.00

             AMF1 x AMF2…x AMF9 = 2.72        1.40
CR 42 Expected Accident Rate
NBR = Base Accident Rate = 0.219 acc/year

NRS = NBR x {AMF1 x AMF2 x AMF3…x AMF9}

NRS = Expected Accident Rate

                             Before   After
      NRS (accidents/year)    0.60    0.31

Our Improvements Are expected to reduce the
        number of accidents by 48%
CR 42 Comparison
       Actual Accident Rate

  • Total of 10 accidents in 3 years
        • 2 non-intersection-related

        • 2 accidents/3 years


            0.67 acc/year

No-Build Condition   Predicted   Actual
NRS (accidents/year)   0.60       0.67
Questions?




 Contact Information

Tom Baird, P.E., CPESC, CESSWI

   Barton and Loguidice, P.C.
         10 Airline Drive
        Albany, NY 12205
         (518) 218 -1801
 tbaird@bartonandloguidice.com

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Asset Management - Data Collection, Prioritization, Estimating, Funding

  • 1. NYS County Highway Superintendents Association Summer Conference Asset Management Data Collection, Prioritization, Estimating, Funding August 29, 2011
  • 2. Course Outline Objective Present a method of keeping track of maintenance & repair needs and to develop a documented plan for addressing these needs
  • 3. 5 Core Questions to Asset Management 1. What is the current state of my assets? 2. What is my required “sustainable” level of service? 3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance? 4. What are my minimum life cycle costs? 5. What is my best long-term funding strategy?
  • 4. 5 Core Questions to Asset Management 1. What is the current state of my assets? • What do I own ? • Where is it ? • What condition is it in ? • What are the Maintenance Needs/Costs ? • What is the Replacement or Repair Cost ?
  • 5. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? What do I Own ? • Roadways
  • 6. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? What do I Own ? • Roadways
  • 7. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? What do I Own ? • Roadways – Roadside Area, Vegetation, Trees • Bridges • Culverts – Other Drainage • Guiderail • Signs • Traffic Signals • Retaining Walls • Equipment - Trucks, Plows, Computers, Heavy Equip. • Buildings – Office, Garages, Salt Sheds
  • 8. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? Minnewaska State Park Preserve and Mohonk Preserve Carriage Road Restoration and Maintenance Manual And GIS database NYS OPRHP Palisades Interstate Park Commission
  • 9. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? Minnewaska State Park Preserve and Mohonk Preserve • Locate Assets • Assess Condition and Needs • Design Repairs • Recommend Maintenance - type, interval, etc. • Inventory their Equipment and Materials • Obtain local rental, lease, and purchase costs • Specify materials, locate sources, & costs • Design interactive GIS System • User Friendly and Dynamic • User Manual and Electronic Data deliverable
  • 10. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? Minnewaska State Park Preserve and Mohonk Preserve Assets: • Roads (65 miles) • Culverts • Ditches, Swales, Drainage • Retaining Walls Same as a Typical • Vegetative Clearing Rural Highway System • Bridges • Guide Rail (boulders) • Equipment, Vehicles
  • 11. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? Minnewaska State Park Preserve and Mohonk Preserve • What do I own ? • Where is it ? • What condition is it in ?
  • 12. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? Locate, Document, and Rate Assets • Photograph and Locate With GPS
  • 13. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • Photograph and Locate all Assets Narrow Roads Brush Vegetation Truck not Practical Rented a “Gator”
  • 14. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • Photograph and Locate all Assets
  • 15. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • Photograph and Locate all Assets
  • 16. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • Photograph and Locate all Assets
  • 17. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • Photograph and Locate all Assets
  • 18. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • Photograph and Locate all Assets • 1800+ photographs • Averaged 4.5 miles per day • Coordinates recorded for each Photo • Entered into a GIS database • Coordinated with Road Locations on NYS Coordinates • Link pictures to the GIS Points
  • 19. Standardized Condition Ratings Must Be Consistent
  • 24. PDH Question # 1 True or False Descriptions of Assets must be Consistent to Sustain a Long Term Management Strategy True
  • 25. Standardized Condition Ratings Assign Colors to Represent Condition Ratings Easily Recognized in GIS Format On Data Sheets When looking at big picture views
  • 26. Question #1 Basic GIS Program – ARC Map What is the Current State ofDatabases Program and Link My Assets ?
  • 27. Question #1 Basic GIS Program – ARC Map What is the Current State ofDatabases Program and Link My Assets ?
  • 28. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ?
  • 29. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ?
  • 30. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ?
  • 31. Question #1 What is the Turn on theStateShowing Assets ? Current Layer of My Culverts
  • 32. Turn on the Layer Showing Rock Walls
  • 33. Click on a Wall
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 38. Road Name Stationing
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 44. Updating Conditions Simple Procedure • Print out Sheet from Excel • Take to the Field - Condition Sheets • Use Standardized Rating System • Take Digital Photos (GPS optional) • Mark it up • Edit in Excel just like a spreadsheet • Markup to GIS person • Photograph Updates - Basic Program
  • 45. Updating Conditions File Name & Location
  • 46. Updating Conditions Photographs 08/21/2009 • Basic Programs • Photoshop Elements - $80 • Either Replace or Merge Photo Update Example Recommend Merging Photos Easy to document even the Keeps Photo Records Simple smallest of rehab tasks
  • 47. Updating Conditions Photographs 08/21/2009 • Basic Programs • Photoshop Elements - $80 • Either Replace or Merge Recommend Merging Photos Keeps Photo Records Simple Easy to document even the smallest of rehab tasks 08/21/2011
  • 48. Question #1 What is the Current State of My Assets ? • What do I own ? • Where is it ? • What condition is it in ? • What are the Maintenance Needs/Costs ? • What is the Replacement or Repair Cost ?
  • 49. Maintenance and Repair Minnewaska State Park Preserve & Mohonk Preserve • Reasonably detailed explanation • Historic Importance and • Part time workers • Volunteers • Consistency in Appearance • Inexperience with type of work • Proven methods from other Parks
  • 51. Maintenance and Repair Determine what work can be performed with equipment already available • Equipment Owned, Condition • Equipment Shared Determine what equipment is needed that is not owned or shared • Rental, Leasing, Locations • Capital Investments, $$$$
  • 52. Maintenance and Repair Equipment Lists
  • 53. Maintenance and Repair Equipment Costs
  • 54. Maintenance and Repair Labor Costs
  • 55. Maintenance and Repair Using Excel Spreadsheets • Labor Cost • Material Cost • Equipment Cost • Fuel Costs • Construction Time Unit Costs Determined For Each Operation
  • 57. Maintenance and Repair Note: Bridge and Retaining Wall Needs were handled on an individual basis
  • 60. Back to the Beginning Review What is the Current State of My Assets ? What do I Own ? • Roadways – Roadside Area, Vegetation, Trees • Bridges • Culverts – Other Drainage • Guiderail • Signs • Traffic Signals • Retaining Walls • Equipment - Trucks, Plows, Computers • Buildings – Office, Garages, Salt Sheds
  • 61. Back to the Beginning Review What is the Current State of My Assets ? What do I Own ? Complete Package and GIS database Extremely Flexible
  • 62. Asset Management Core Question #2 What is my required “sustainable” level of service? • What is the demand for services ? • When is service not functional ? • What is required by Regulations, Standards? • What is the actual performance ? • What is the Public Image?
  • 63. Asset Management Core Question #3 Which assets are critical to sustained performance? • How can it fail ? • What is the likelihood of failure ? • What does it cost to repair ? • What are the consequences of failure ? • Can it remain an asset until complete failure ? An Extension of Risk Management
  • 64. PDH Question # 2 True or False Identifying Critical Assets is part of Risk Management True
  • 65. PDH Question # 2.5 True or False Media Reporters Frequently “Get it Right” False
  • 66. Asset Management Core Question #4 What are my minimum life cycle costs? • Maintenance Minimums? • Equipment - Lease, Rent, Purchase? • Paving Program ? • Dealing with Escalation of Costs ?
  • 67. Asset Management Core Question #5 What is my best long-term funding strategy? • Capital rehabilitation • Capital replacement • Changes to operating procedures • Changes to maintenance procedures • Demand management • Reduction of level(s) of service • Improvement in response or recovery
  • 68. PDH Question # 3 Which is NOT one of the 5 Core Questions of Asset Management 1. What is the current state of my assets ? 2. What is my required “sustainable” level of service ? 3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance ? 4. What is my best long-term funding strategy ? 5. What brand of coffee should we use in the office ? 6. What are my minimum life cycle costs ?
  • 69. PDH Question # 3 Which is NOT one of the 5 Core Questions of Asset Management 1. What is the current state of my assets ? 2. What is my required “sustainable” level of service ? 3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance ? 4. What is my best long-term funding strategy ? 5. What brand of coffee should we use in the office ? 6. What are my minimum life cycle costs ?
  • 70. PDH Question # 4 True or False An Asset Management Process includes Wisdom, Knowledge, Information, Data True
  • 71. Questions? Contact Information Tom Baird, P.E., CPESC, CESSWI Barton and Loguidice, P.C. 10 Airline Drive Albany, NY 12205 (518) 218 -1801 tbaird@bartonandloguidice.com
  • 74. Accident Prediction Model • FHWA-RD-99-207 http://www.tfhrc.gov/safety/pubs/99207/index.htm • Rural two-lane highways • Based on: • Historical accident data • Regression analyses • Before/After studies • Expert judgments by panel of engineers • Two major components: • Base accident rate • Accident Modification Factors (AMF) Source: FHWA, 2000
  • 75. Accident Prediction Model NBR = Base Accident Rate NBR = ADT x L x 365 (Units = accidents/year) 106 x e0.4865 NRS = Expected Accident Rate NRS = NBR x {AMF1 x AMF2 x AMF3… x AMF9} Source: FHWA
  • 76. Accident Modification Factors • Lane Width • Shoulder Width/Type • Roadside Hazard Rating • Driveway Density • Horizontal Curvature • Superelevation Deficiency • Vertical Curvature/Grade • Two-way left turn lanes • Passing lane/short 4-lane sections Source: FHWA
  • 77. Project Example Washington County Road 42 Look at expected accident rate before and after improvements
  • 78. Project Needs Safety Improvements Needed Accident Analysis June 1, 1999 through May 21, 2001 Location More Than 3.8 X CR 42/East/ 1.36 Mahaffy Statewide 0.35 Average 1.0 2.0 Accidents Per Million Entry Vehicles
  • 79. Washington CR 42 • NBR base rate calculation • ADT = 3,965 vehicles/day ETC (2007) • L = 0.25 mile (1300 ft) • NBR = 3965 x 0.25 x 365 106 x e0.4865 = 0.219 accidents per year (non- intersection-related) for entire segment
  • 80. AMF1 – Lane Width Source: FHWA
  • 81. AMF1 – Lane Width CR 42 – ADT = 3,965 veh/day Before After Lane Width 11 feet 12 feet AMFchart 1.05 1.00 Adjustment (50%) Accounts for Accident Distribution by Lane AMF1 1.03 1.00
  • 82. CR 42 Expected Accident Rate Accident Modification Factor Before After 1 – Lane Width 1.03 1.00 2 – Shoulder Width/Type 3 – Roadside Hazard Rating 4 – Driveway Density 5 – Horizontal Curvature 6 – Superelevation Deficiency 7 – Vertical Curvature/Grade 8 – Two-way Left Turn Lanes 9 – Passing Lane/4-lane sections AMF1xAMF2…xAMF9 --- ---
  • 83. AMF2 – Shoulder Width/Type CR 42 – ADT = 3,965 veh/day Before After Shoulder Width 2 feet 4 feet AMFwidth 1.30 1.15 Shoulder Type Composite Paved AMFtype 1.02 1.00 Adjustment 50% AMF2 1.16 1.08
  • 84. Adding Paved Shoulder AMF = 1.50 AMF = 1.15 If Shoulder = 4’ Paved + 4’ Grass AMF = 0.92 If Shoulder = 8’ Paved AMF = 0.87
  • 85. CR 42 Expected Accident Rate Accident Modification Factor Before After 1 – Lane Width 1.03 1.00 2 – Shoulder Width/Type 1.16 1.08 3 – Roadside Hazard Rating 4 – Driveway Density 5 – Horizontal Curvature 6 – Superelevation Deficiency 7 – Vertical Curvature/Grade 8 – Two-way Left Turn Lanes 9 – Passing Lane/4-lane sections AMF1xAMF2…xAMF9 --- ---
  • 86. AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating • Base/assumed value = 3 • Depends on slopes, clear zone, etc. • Rating 1 to 7, 1 = Best case Source: FHWA
  • 87. AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating Examples: RHR=1
  • 88. AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating Examples: RHR=3
  • 89. AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating Examples: RHR= 6 and 7
  • 90. AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating Examples: RHR= ??
  • 92. Clear Zone 10% to 20% of fixed object accidents are in Repeat Locations
  • 93. Clear Zone 10% to 20% of fixed object accidents are in Repeat Locations
  • 94. AMF3 – Roadside Hazard Rating CR 42 Before After RHR 5 1 Convert to AMF AMF3 1.14 0.875
  • 95. CR 42 Expected Accident Rate Accident Modification Factor Before After 1 – Lane Width 1.03 1.00 2 – Shoulder Width/Type 1.16 1.08 3 – Roadside Hazard Rating 1.14 0.875 4 – Driveway Density 1.18 1.18 5 – Horizontal Curvature 1.44 1.16 6 – Superelevation Deficiency 1.06 1.00 7 – Vertical Curvature/Grade 1.11 1.08 8 – Two-way Left Turn Lanes 1.00 1.00 9 – Passing Lane/4-lane sections 1.00 1.00 AMF1 x AMF2…x AMF9 = 2.72 1.40
  • 96. CR 42 Expected Accident Rate NBR = Base Accident Rate = 0.219 acc/year NRS = NBR x {AMF1 x AMF2 x AMF3…x AMF9} NRS = Expected Accident Rate Before After NRS (accidents/year) 0.60 0.31 Our Improvements Are expected to reduce the number of accidents by 48%
  • 97. CR 42 Comparison Actual Accident Rate • Total of 10 accidents in 3 years • 2 non-intersection-related • 2 accidents/3 years 0.67 acc/year No-Build Condition Predicted Actual NRS (accidents/year) 0.60 0.67
  • 98. Questions? Contact Information Tom Baird, P.E., CPESC, CESSWI Barton and Loguidice, P.C. 10 Airline Drive Albany, NY 12205 (518) 218 -1801 tbaird@bartonandloguidice.com