Regional security organizations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU) are increasing their presence on the world stage. With the United Nations (UN) stretched thin, and with the current state of the world economy, hybrid missions, such as the UN-AU in Sudan and EU, sponsored piracy task force operating on the coast of the horn of Africa are becoming more the norm than the exception. The African Union has increased its operational tempo since its inception in 2003 as the successor to the Organization of African Unity by intervening (whether by peacekeeping or peacebuilding) in fifty of the fifty-six nations on the African continent (Pavehouse, Nordstrom and Warnke 2004). Since regional security organizations are increasingly becoming a foreign policy option in places like Africa and Afghanistan (NATO) a question that surfaces is what determines when a nation contributes troops to a regional peacekeeping operation. Direct threats, global reputation and strength of the military come to mind first, but upon deeper analysis, the question becomes more complex. By determining which factors carry the most weight, when nations decide to contribute troops to regional peacekeeping operations, this poster provides information about which factors drive the nations to intervene.
1. Regional Security Organizations: Factors Behind Peacekeeping Participation
Gene Paul Puerta, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign
Mentors: J.Michael Greig Phd, Anna Pechenina, University of North Texas
General Theory Regional Hypothesis Breakdown
A country has regional, national interests or both. (C ---> R If a nation has a foreign policy interest in a
v N) state experiencing conflict that has a long
If a country has regional or national interests in the target duration, then it will intervene. (Ld ---> R)
nation, a peacekeeping intervention will occur. (R v N --->
Int) If a nation has to ability to intervene in a zone
of conflict experiencing a genocide, then it will
contribute to peacekeeping operations in that
target state. (Gn ---> R)
Coefficient Estimates: Factors Determining Troop
Contributions to Peacekeeping Missions Sponsored by
Regional Security Organizations (n=1429)
Figure 3. February 18, 2010. NATO/AU, African Factors
Standby Force. Photo: North Atlantic Treaty Coefficient P>|z|
Organization.
Distance from
-0.4239504 0.000****
Hypotheses (H1)Shared
the border
Borders
National Hypothesis: If a nation has national
interests then it will intervene. Neighbor -3.540288 0.000****
Figure 1. African Union Mission In Sudan (AMIS) Regional Hypothesis: If a nation has regional
troops on parade in Geneina. Photo: Paula (H1)Refugee Civil Conflict 0.0550464 0.809
interests then it will intervene. s of Target
Souverijn-Eisenberg.
Capability Hypothesis: If a nation has the State Refugees 0.2139004 0.000****
capability to intervene then it will intervene.
National Hypothesis Breakdown (H1) Alliances -0.1390462 0.571
(Cb ---> Int) (H2)Duration of Conflict -0.0244779 0.000****
If a nation shares its border with a zone of conflict, then it
will contribute to peacekeeping operations in the state Number of Threats to the Nation Hypothesis:
that the conflict occurs in. (Sb ---> N) (H2) Genocide (0.0003) 0.7635053 0.068*
Depending upon the number of threats a nation
If a nation has refugees fleeing from the conflict zone that is currently dealing with, if it is not dealing with (H3)Capability of Donor
4.908221 0.344
directly affects it, then it will contribute to peacekeeping too many threats at the same time, then it will Stateʼs Military
operations in that state. (Rf ---> N) contribute troops to a peacekeeping operation.
(H4) Number of Donor
If a nation shares diplomatic ties (such as an alliance) with -1.186805 0.004***
a state experiencing conflict, then it will contribute to
(Th ---> Int) Stateʼs Threats (0.0086)
peacekeeping operations in that state. (Ai ---> N) *p<.10 **p<.05 ***p<.01 ****p<.001
Acknowledgments
This material is based upon work supported by the
National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1003605
The UNT Political Science Department
Professor Ishiyama, John
Professor Greig, Michael
Anya Pechenina
References (see sheet for full list)
Michael J. & Stephen Stedman (2003) Where do
Figure 2. US Army as part of ISAF (NATO) Figure 4. ASEAN Regional Forum leaders meet in
peacekeepers go? International Studies Review 5(1):
Photo: First Lt. Amy Bonanno, ARSIC-S PAO 2008. http://www.japanfocus.org/-Mark-Beeson/3008 37–54.