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Regional Security Organizations: Factors Behind Peacekeeping Participation
                                              Gene Paul Puerta, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign
                                                   Mentors: J.Michael Greig Phd, Anna Pechenina, University of North Texas

                  General Theory                                                                                             Regional Hypothesis Breakdown
A country has regional, national interests or both. (C ---> R                                                              If a nation has a foreign policy interest in a
v N)                                                                                                                       state experiencing conflict that has a long
 If a country has regional or national interests in the target                                                             duration, then it will intervene. (Ld ---> R)
nation, a peacekeeping intervention will occur. (R v N --->
Int)                                                                                                                       If a nation has to ability to intervene in a zone
                                                                                                                           of conflict experiencing a genocide, then it will
                                                                                                                           contribute to peacekeeping operations in that
                                                                                                                           target state. (Gn ---> R)
                                                                                                                          Coefficient Estimates: Factors Determining Troop
                                                                                                                        Contributions to Peacekeeping Missions Sponsored by
                                                                                                                              Regional Security Organizations (n=1429)
                                                                 Figure 3. February 18, 2010. NATO/AU, African                   Factors
                                                                 Standby Force. Photo: North Atlantic Treaty                                             Coefficient           P>|z|
                                                                 Organization.
                                                                                                                                     Distance from
                                                                                                                                                         -0.4239504       0.000****
                                                                                  Hypotheses                            (H1)Shared
                                                                                                                                       the border
                                                                                                                          Borders
                                                                 National Hypothesis: If a nation has national
                                                                 interests then it will intervene.                                      Neighbor          -3.540288       0.000****
  Figure 1. African Union Mission In Sudan (AMIS)                Regional Hypothesis: If a nation has regional
  troops on parade in Geneina. Photo: Paula                                                                             (H1)Refugee Civil Conflict        0.0550464            0.809
                                                                 interests then it will intervene.                       s of Target
  Souverijn-Eisenberg.
                                                                 Capability Hypothesis: If a nation has the                 State    Refugees            0.2139004        0.000****
                                                                 capability to intervene then it will intervene.
   National Hypothesis Breakdown                                                                                             (H1) Alliances              -0.1390462           0.571
                                                                 (Cb ---> Int)                                           (H2)Duration of Conflict         -0.0244779       0.000****
If a nation shares its border with a zone of conflict, then it
will contribute to peacekeeping operations in the state          Number of Threats to the Nation Hypothesis:
that the conflict occurs in. (Sb ---> N)                                                                                 (H2) Genocide (0.0003)          0.7635053            0.068*
                                                                 Depending upon the number of threats a nation
If a nation has refugees fleeing from the conflict zone that     is currently dealing with, if it is not dealing with    (H3)Capability of Donor
                                                                                                                                                          4.908221            0.344
directly affects it, then it will contribute to peacekeeping     too many threats at the same time, then it will             Stateʼs Military
operations in that state. (Rf ---> N)                            contribute troops to a peacekeeping operation.
                                                                                                                          (H4) Number of Donor
If a nation shares diplomatic ties (such as an alliance) with                                                                                             -1.186805       0.004***
a state experiencing conflict, then it will contribute to
                                                                 (Th ---> Int)                                           Stateʼs Threats (0.0086)
peacekeeping operations in that state. (Ai ---> N)                                                                              *p<.10     **p<.05    ***p<.01   ****p<.001

                                                                                                                                              Acknowledgments
                                                                                                                           This material is based upon work supported by the
                                                                                                                           National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1003605
                                                                                                                           The UNT Political Science Department
                                                                                                                           Professor Ishiyama, John
                                                                                                                           Professor Greig, Michael
                                                                                                                           Anya Pechenina
                                                                                                                                     References (see sheet for full list)
                                                                                                                           Michael J. & Stephen Stedman (2003) Where do
    Figure 2. US Army as part of ISAF (NATO)                       Figure 4. ASEAN Regional Forum leaders meet in
                                                                                                                               peacekeepers go? International Studies Review 5(1):
   Photo: First Lt. Amy Bonanno, ARSIC-S PAO                      2008. http://www.japanfocus.org/-Mark-Beeson/3008            37–54.

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RSO Factors

  • 1. Regional Security Organizations: Factors Behind Peacekeeping Participation Gene Paul Puerta, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign Mentors: J.Michael Greig Phd, Anna Pechenina, University of North Texas General Theory Regional Hypothesis Breakdown A country has regional, national interests or both. (C ---> R If a nation has a foreign policy interest in a v N) state experiencing conflict that has a long If a country has regional or national interests in the target duration, then it will intervene. (Ld ---> R) nation, a peacekeeping intervention will occur. (R v N ---> Int) If a nation has to ability to intervene in a zone of conflict experiencing a genocide, then it will contribute to peacekeeping operations in that target state. (Gn ---> R) Coefficient Estimates: Factors Determining Troop Contributions to Peacekeeping Missions Sponsored by Regional Security Organizations (n=1429) Figure 3. February 18, 2010. NATO/AU, African Factors Standby Force. Photo: North Atlantic Treaty Coefficient P>|z| Organization. Distance from -0.4239504 0.000**** Hypotheses (H1)Shared the border Borders National Hypothesis: If a nation has national interests then it will intervene. Neighbor -3.540288 0.000**** Figure 1. African Union Mission In Sudan (AMIS) Regional Hypothesis: If a nation has regional troops on parade in Geneina. Photo: Paula (H1)Refugee Civil Conflict 0.0550464 0.809 interests then it will intervene. s of Target Souverijn-Eisenberg. Capability Hypothesis: If a nation has the State Refugees 0.2139004 0.000**** capability to intervene then it will intervene. National Hypothesis Breakdown (H1) Alliances -0.1390462 0.571 (Cb ---> Int) (H2)Duration of Conflict -0.0244779 0.000**** If a nation shares its border with a zone of conflict, then it will contribute to peacekeeping operations in the state Number of Threats to the Nation Hypothesis: that the conflict occurs in. (Sb ---> N) (H2) Genocide (0.0003) 0.7635053 0.068* Depending upon the number of threats a nation If a nation has refugees fleeing from the conflict zone that is currently dealing with, if it is not dealing with (H3)Capability of Donor 4.908221 0.344 directly affects it, then it will contribute to peacekeeping too many threats at the same time, then it will Stateʼs Military operations in that state. (Rf ---> N) contribute troops to a peacekeeping operation. (H4) Number of Donor If a nation shares diplomatic ties (such as an alliance) with -1.186805 0.004*** a state experiencing conflict, then it will contribute to (Th ---> Int) Stateʼs Threats (0.0086) peacekeeping operations in that state. (Ai ---> N) *p<.10 **p<.05 ***p<.01 ****p<.001 Acknowledgments This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1003605 The UNT Political Science Department Professor Ishiyama, John Professor Greig, Michael Anya Pechenina References (see sheet for full list) Michael J. & Stephen Stedman (2003) Where do Figure 2. US Army as part of ISAF (NATO) Figure 4. ASEAN Regional Forum leaders meet in peacekeepers go? International Studies Review 5(1): Photo: First Lt. Amy Bonanno, ARSIC-S PAO 2008. http://www.japanfocus.org/-Mark-Beeson/3008 37–54.

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