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From the Top..
A “Startup” is an
organization formed to
search for a repeatable and
scalable business model.
- Steve Blank
Tom McGovern, Managing Director
@tmcgove
Inspiration, thanks and attribution to:
– Steve Blank @sgblank
– Alexander Cowan @CowanSF
– Eric Ries @ericries
Recognition
Start Out With an Explicit Business Thesis
‘A certain [Persona(s)] exists…
…and they have certain [Problem
Scenario(s)]…
…where they’re currently using certain
[Alternatives]…
…and I have a [Value Proposition(s)]
that’s better enough than the alternatives
that the persona will buy/use my product.‘
What is my product/service, Who is my target customer, Why would they buy it?
Then Begin the Search by Unpacking That Thesis into
Testable Child Hypotheses
Business Thesis
Personas Problems / Pains
Our Value
Propositions
Considerations
Does this persona exist?
Can you name or find 5-10 examples
(names of people not corporations)?
Can you identify them out in the real
world?
Do you understand them really well?
Do you understand how they relate to your
Startup idea?
Can you write a user story on them?
Considerations
Do the problems you’re solving really exist?
Is it more of a problem served by vitamins or
aspirin? Is there a strong need and desire?
How important is the problem or problems (is
the value of the pain meaningful)?
How is the customer solving the problem
now?
With what alternatives?
Considerations
How much better than the best
alternative does your product need to
be?
How obvious is this proposition to the
customer?
How will you test that without just asking
‘do you want this?’ (because that doesn’t
work)?
Hypo Hypo Hypo Hypo Hypo Hypo
Crafting Hypotheses
• A hypothesis is a statement, not a question. The
hypothesis is an educated, testable prediction
about what will happen.
• Make it clear. A good hypothesis is written in
clear and simple language. Reading your
hypothesis should tell others exactly what you
thought was going to happen.
• Keep the variables in mind. A good hypothesis
defines the variables in easy-to-measure terms,
like who the participants are, what changes
during the testing, and what the effect of the
changes will be.
• Make sure your hypothesis is "testable." To
prove or disprove your hypothesis, you need to
be able to do an experiment and take
measurements or make observations to see how
two things (your variables) are related. You
should also be able to repeat your experiment
over and over again, if necessary.
I believe homeowners will pay
$200 and install a smart
thermostat to save on their
future utility bills
I believe [target
market] will [do this action /
use this solution] for [this
reason]
Checklist: Personas
Questions Research
✔ This persona exists (in non-
trivial numbers) and you can
identify them.
Can you think of 5-10 examples?
Can you set up discovery interviews with them?
Can you connect with them in the market at large?
✔ You understand this persona
well.
Can you profile them?
Are you hearing, seeing the same things across your
discovery interviews?
✔ Do you understand what they
think of your belief of the
problem you solve?
What do you they mention as important? Difficult?
Rewarding?
Do they see the work (or habit) as you do?
What would they like to do better? To be better?
✔ Do you understand how they
form their views of the problem
and alternative solutions?
Where do they get their information? Peers? Publications?
How do they decide what’s OK? What’s aspirational
✔ How important is the problem? What are their triggers for this area? Motivations?
What rewards do they seek? How do they view past
actions?
✔ Can you observe and document
what their current behavior?
What do you actually observe them doing?
How can you directly or indirectly validate that’s what they
do?
Questions Research
✔ You’ve identified at least one
discrete problem / pain point
Can you describe it in a sentence?
Do others get it?
Can you identify current alternatives?
✔ The problem (habit/need) is
important
Do subjects mention it unprompted in discovery
interviews?
Can you quantify the value of the pain for your
subjects? Can you objectively project that to a market
sizing exercise?
Do they respond to solicitation?
✔ You understand how the
subjects came to use their
current solution?
Do you understand how the decision to use current
solution was made? What is the purchase cycle?
Can you map influencers and other players in decision
making?
✔ You understand current
alternatives
Have you seen them in action?
Do you have ‘artifacts’ (spreadsheets, photos, posts,
notes, whiteboard scribbles, screen shots)?
Can you diagram the workflow?
Checklist: Problems / Pain Points
Keys to experiments to test your hypotheses:
1) Know which of your assumptions are the most uncertain, and test these risky
assumptions first.
2) Keeping the experiments focused on obtaining a true/false result for one or
more of your hypotheses
3) Be creative in developing the fastest experiment which delivers on #1. Not all
experiments have quantitative output it is still valid to review a set of
qualitative outputs (like customer discovery interviews) and make a judgement
call on how/whether the results prove or disprove an assumption.
4) Not all product tests should require building MVP type product.
5) Most Used Tests: Interviews (by far), Google adwords / Landing page tests,
Ghetto Tests, TheHunt posts, Crowdfund/Indiegogo campaigns, MVPs
Designing Experiments
Case Study - Dropbox
THESIS
Persona Tom the Techie- early adopter who works on projects that require swapping a lot of files between a
shifting network of collaborators.
Problem Scenario It’s difficult to share files between a fluid network of collaborators, particularly if they’re: big or
numerous or change a lot.
Alternatives Many existing products, but none of them super compelling and widely adopted. Also, custom
setup’s which work but are cumbersome to set up and maintain.
Value Proposition A file sharing service that truly feels transparent to the user across all major platforms- OSX, iOS,
Windows, etc.
TEST AND RESULTS
Key Hypothesis People like Tom (and others in the later market) exist and if there was a really nice, easy file
sharing service, they’d adopt it. This is a “user first” strategy, not testing willingness to pay.
Experiment Hand craft a 3 minutes video demo’ing the service (without actual working, releasable
software); posted it on hacker news; orient the messaging to the early market; promote it
and see what happens
Validation Criteria Substantial traffic on the video and sign-up’s for product information – waiting list went from
5,000 to 75,000 overnight
Result Strong preliminary validation
Case Study - Sprig
THESIS
Persona Paula the Professional- health conscious, short on time, moderate to high income, already
uses similar services like Uber.
Problem Scenario I want to have a nice, healthy dinner with no hassle and at a price I can afford (like $12).
Alternatives Going to the store or an expensive, take-out, or a slow delivery service (>20 minutes).
Value Proposition Get a healthy meal like you would order a cab (on Uber): “Dinner on Demand … Prep Time is
3 Taps … Delectable Prices” (Sprig Home Page)
TEST AND RESULTS
Key Hypothesis People like Paula exist and rather than prepping their own meals, ordering takeout, or eating
out, they’d prefer to easily order a healthy 12 meal that are delivered in 20 minutes.
Experiment Prep. such a meal and delivery ad hoc for one night; post the offer for delivery on Eventbrite;
email friends and acquaintances. Goal of X% conversion rate {specific redacted}
Validation Criteria Does a workable portion of the emailed population respond? Do they like the experience?
Result Strong preliminary validation - good {specific redacted} uptake and good customer experiences
APPENDIX
Caution - I Will Lie To You So That I Don’t Insult You
Focus Group Moderator: “Hey, how do you like this yellow
Walkman?”
Responses: Off the Chart Favorable! ‘I love that yellow
Walkman - it’s so sporty!’ ‘Man, would I rather I have a
sweet yellow Walkman instead of a boring old black one.’
On the way out they
could grab a Yellow or a
Black Walkman. Nearly
ALL participants left
with Black Walkman
Hi [User's first name],
My name is [your name]. I'm a [your role] working with [company name] on [describe the project at a high level].
I'm in the research stage and looking to learn more about [describe what you're trying to learn] from folks who have
[describe what this user does that you're interested in learning about. ex: completed a project through the site].
[This person] of [company name] suggested that, given your experience with [describe their experience], you'd
have valuable insights on the project.
If you're interested in talking, do you have 30mins free on Wednesday or Thursday morning this week?
Best,
{Me}
Getting Interviews via E-Mail
Why it works:
- you've made it clear who you are, what you're working on and how you found them
- you've explained why their input will be valuable to your research and you've flattered
them a little bit
- you've made a small ask - just 30mins of their time
- you've provided specific days in the near future, which limits the number of possibilities
for them and makes it easier to respond - they can check Wed and Thur on their
calendars and respond. If they don't have time on those days, they can easily respond
with another day the following week
Interview Tips
1. One person at a time in person who is a user or buyer
2. Know your goals and questions ahead of time
3. Disarm “politeness” training
4. Get psyched to hear things you don’t want to hear. Focus on
disproving information.
5. Focus on pains and current solution, don’t sell and don’t talk about
your technology
6. Focus on actual behavior, not speculative or abstract feelings
7. Ask open ended questions
8. Listen, don’t talk
9. Parrot back or misrepresent to confirm

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Here are some tips for conducting effective customer discovery interviews:1. Interview one person at a time in-person to get candid, unfiltered feedback. 2. Know your goals and questions ahead of time so you stay focused on learning.3. Put interviewees at ease so they feel comfortable sharing honest opinions, not just polite ones. 4. Be open-minded to hearing things you don't want to hear. Seek to disprove your assumptions.5. Focus questions on understanding pains and current solutions, not selling your idea or technology.6. Ask about actual behaviors, not speculative feelings. Look for concrete examples.7. Use open-ended questions to get detailed responses

  • 1. From the Top.. A “Startup” is an organization formed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model. - Steve Blank Tom McGovern, Managing Director @tmcgove
  • 2. Inspiration, thanks and attribution to: – Steve Blank @sgblank – Alexander Cowan @CowanSF – Eric Ries @ericries Recognition
  • 3. Start Out With an Explicit Business Thesis ‘A certain [Persona(s)] exists… …and they have certain [Problem Scenario(s)]… …where they’re currently using certain [Alternatives]… …and I have a [Value Proposition(s)] that’s better enough than the alternatives that the persona will buy/use my product.‘ What is my product/service, Who is my target customer, Why would they buy it?
  • 4. Then Begin the Search by Unpacking That Thesis into Testable Child Hypotheses Business Thesis Personas Problems / Pains Our Value Propositions Considerations Does this persona exist? Can you name or find 5-10 examples (names of people not corporations)? Can you identify them out in the real world? Do you understand them really well? Do you understand how they relate to your Startup idea? Can you write a user story on them? Considerations Do the problems you’re solving really exist? Is it more of a problem served by vitamins or aspirin? Is there a strong need and desire? How important is the problem or problems (is the value of the pain meaningful)? How is the customer solving the problem now? With what alternatives? Considerations How much better than the best alternative does your product need to be? How obvious is this proposition to the customer? How will you test that without just asking ‘do you want this?’ (because that doesn’t work)? Hypo Hypo Hypo Hypo Hypo Hypo
  • 5. Crafting Hypotheses • A hypothesis is a statement, not a question. The hypothesis is an educated, testable prediction about what will happen. • Make it clear. A good hypothesis is written in clear and simple language. Reading your hypothesis should tell others exactly what you thought was going to happen. • Keep the variables in mind. A good hypothesis defines the variables in easy-to-measure terms, like who the participants are, what changes during the testing, and what the effect of the changes will be. • Make sure your hypothesis is "testable." To prove or disprove your hypothesis, you need to be able to do an experiment and take measurements or make observations to see how two things (your variables) are related. You should also be able to repeat your experiment over and over again, if necessary. I believe homeowners will pay $200 and install a smart thermostat to save on their future utility bills I believe [target market] will [do this action / use this solution] for [this reason]
  • 6. Checklist: Personas Questions Research ✔ This persona exists (in non- trivial numbers) and you can identify them. Can you think of 5-10 examples? Can you set up discovery interviews with them? Can you connect with them in the market at large? ✔ You understand this persona well. Can you profile them? Are you hearing, seeing the same things across your discovery interviews? ✔ Do you understand what they think of your belief of the problem you solve? What do you they mention as important? Difficult? Rewarding? Do they see the work (or habit) as you do? What would they like to do better? To be better? ✔ Do you understand how they form their views of the problem and alternative solutions? Where do they get their information? Peers? Publications? How do they decide what’s OK? What’s aspirational ✔ How important is the problem? What are their triggers for this area? Motivations? What rewards do they seek? How do they view past actions? ✔ Can you observe and document what their current behavior? What do you actually observe them doing? How can you directly or indirectly validate that’s what they do?
  • 7. Questions Research ✔ You’ve identified at least one discrete problem / pain point Can you describe it in a sentence? Do others get it? Can you identify current alternatives? ✔ The problem (habit/need) is important Do subjects mention it unprompted in discovery interviews? Can you quantify the value of the pain for your subjects? Can you objectively project that to a market sizing exercise? Do they respond to solicitation? ✔ You understand how the subjects came to use their current solution? Do you understand how the decision to use current solution was made? What is the purchase cycle? Can you map influencers and other players in decision making? ✔ You understand current alternatives Have you seen them in action? Do you have ‘artifacts’ (spreadsheets, photos, posts, notes, whiteboard scribbles, screen shots)? Can you diagram the workflow? Checklist: Problems / Pain Points
  • 8. Keys to experiments to test your hypotheses: 1) Know which of your assumptions are the most uncertain, and test these risky assumptions first. 2) Keeping the experiments focused on obtaining a true/false result for one or more of your hypotheses 3) Be creative in developing the fastest experiment which delivers on #1. Not all experiments have quantitative output it is still valid to review a set of qualitative outputs (like customer discovery interviews) and make a judgement call on how/whether the results prove or disprove an assumption. 4) Not all product tests should require building MVP type product. 5) Most Used Tests: Interviews (by far), Google adwords / Landing page tests, Ghetto Tests, TheHunt posts, Crowdfund/Indiegogo campaigns, MVPs Designing Experiments
  • 9. Case Study - Dropbox THESIS Persona Tom the Techie- early adopter who works on projects that require swapping a lot of files between a shifting network of collaborators. Problem Scenario It’s difficult to share files between a fluid network of collaborators, particularly if they’re: big or numerous or change a lot. Alternatives Many existing products, but none of them super compelling and widely adopted. Also, custom setup’s which work but are cumbersome to set up and maintain. Value Proposition A file sharing service that truly feels transparent to the user across all major platforms- OSX, iOS, Windows, etc. TEST AND RESULTS Key Hypothesis People like Tom (and others in the later market) exist and if there was a really nice, easy file sharing service, they’d adopt it. This is a “user first” strategy, not testing willingness to pay. Experiment Hand craft a 3 minutes video demo’ing the service (without actual working, releasable software); posted it on hacker news; orient the messaging to the early market; promote it and see what happens Validation Criteria Substantial traffic on the video and sign-up’s for product information – waiting list went from 5,000 to 75,000 overnight Result Strong preliminary validation
  • 10. Case Study - Sprig THESIS Persona Paula the Professional- health conscious, short on time, moderate to high income, already uses similar services like Uber. Problem Scenario I want to have a nice, healthy dinner with no hassle and at a price I can afford (like $12). Alternatives Going to the store or an expensive, take-out, or a slow delivery service (>20 minutes). Value Proposition Get a healthy meal like you would order a cab (on Uber): “Dinner on Demand … Prep Time is 3 Taps … Delectable Prices” (Sprig Home Page) TEST AND RESULTS Key Hypothesis People like Paula exist and rather than prepping their own meals, ordering takeout, or eating out, they’d prefer to easily order a healthy 12 meal that are delivered in 20 minutes. Experiment Prep. such a meal and delivery ad hoc for one night; post the offer for delivery on Eventbrite; email friends and acquaintances. Goal of X% conversion rate {specific redacted} Validation Criteria Does a workable portion of the emailed population respond? Do they like the experience? Result Strong preliminary validation - good {specific redacted} uptake and good customer experiences
  • 12. Caution - I Will Lie To You So That I Don’t Insult You Focus Group Moderator: “Hey, how do you like this yellow Walkman?” Responses: Off the Chart Favorable! ‘I love that yellow Walkman - it’s so sporty!’ ‘Man, would I rather I have a sweet yellow Walkman instead of a boring old black one.’ On the way out they could grab a Yellow or a Black Walkman. Nearly ALL participants left with Black Walkman
  • 13. Hi [User's first name], My name is [your name]. I'm a [your role] working with [company name] on [describe the project at a high level]. I'm in the research stage and looking to learn more about [describe what you're trying to learn] from folks who have [describe what this user does that you're interested in learning about. ex: completed a project through the site]. [This person] of [company name] suggested that, given your experience with [describe their experience], you'd have valuable insights on the project. If you're interested in talking, do you have 30mins free on Wednesday or Thursday morning this week? Best, {Me} Getting Interviews via E-Mail Why it works: - you've made it clear who you are, what you're working on and how you found them - you've explained why their input will be valuable to your research and you've flattered them a little bit - you've made a small ask - just 30mins of their time - you've provided specific days in the near future, which limits the number of possibilities for them and makes it easier to respond - they can check Wed and Thur on their calendars and respond. If they don't have time on those days, they can easily respond with another day the following week
  • 14. Interview Tips 1. One person at a time in person who is a user or buyer 2. Know your goals and questions ahead of time 3. Disarm “politeness” training 4. Get psyched to hear things you don’t want to hear. Focus on disproving information. 5. Focus on pains and current solution, don’t sell and don’t talk about your technology 6. Focus on actual behavior, not speculative or abstract feelings 7. Ask open ended questions 8. Listen, don’t talk 9. Parrot back or misrepresent to confirm