Measures of Dispersion and Variability: Range, QD, AD and SD
The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
1. Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
Beijing, China
Wednesday 8th June 2016
The Story of Distance Education:
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
2.
3. National Institute for Digital Learning
• DCU Connected
• Teaching Enhancement
• Digital Learning Research
5. Outline…
1. Failed predictions
2. Troublesome tensions
3. Education for a better future
The Story of Distance Education:
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
6. Key question…
“If new models of distance
education (including the use
of learning analytics) provide
a dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”
10. What technology is
likely to have the greatest
impact on higher education by 2027?
1. Failed predictions…
11. “The student who has prepared a certain number of
lessons in the correspondence school knows
more of the subject treated in those lessons, and
knows it better, than the student who has covered the
same ground in the classroom.” Soon, he predicted,
“the work done by correspondence will be greater
in amount than that done in the classrooms of our
academies and colleges.”
Yale Professor William Rainey Harper - 1885
1. Failed predictions…
12. “With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the world’s literature will be
available from The Automatic Library at the
mere pressing of a button”
(Uzanne, 1994).
1. Failed predictions…
13. “With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the world’s literature will be
available from The Automatic Library at the
mere pressing of a button”
(Uzanne, 1894).
1. Failed predictions…
14. “Books will soon be obsolete in public schools.
Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is
possible to teach every branch of human
knowledge with the motion picture”.
(Thomas Edison, 1912)
1. Failed predictions…
15. “I believe that the motion picture is destined to
revolutionize our educational system and that
in a few years it will supplant largely, if not
entirely, the use of textbooks,”
(Thomas Edison, 1922)
1. Failed predictions…
16. “The central and dominant aim of education by
radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to
make universally available the services of the finest
teachers, the inspiration of the greatest leaders...
and unfolding world events which through the radio
may come as a vibrant and challenging textbook
of the air.”
Benjamin Darrow 1932
Director of Ohio School of the Air
1. Failed predictions…
17. “We will undoubtedly have lectures of every
conceivable kind presented to us right in our
homes, when practical television arrives,
possibly a year or two off.”
Short Wave Craft, 1935
1. Failed predictions…
18. 1. Failed predictions…
“It happens every
day! Many so
c a l l e d ‘ s l o w
students’ learn
to type and then
show up on the
honor roll.”
https://larrycuban.wordpress.com
19. “Modern educators and psychologists have found,
through thousands of tests in the nations schools,
that “typewriter” children do better work… get from
10% to 30% higher grades...”
https://twitter.com/audreywatters/status/719231612865544192
1. Failed predictions…
20. 1. Failed predictions…
“Your teaching efforts are more effective. Pupils
comprehend faster with the brighter, more
detailed image.”
https://larrycuban.wordpress.com
23. Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology
since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press.
Technology
Expectation Cycle
(1986)
High Expectations
Subsided Enthusiasm
Growing
Support
1. Failed predictions…
24. Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010).
MOOCs
(THE, 2014)
1. Failed predictions…
25. Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010).
MOOCs
1. Failed predictions…
2016
26. “Resilience requires
adaptation and evolution to new
environmental conditions, but retains core identity”
(Weller & Anderson, 2013, p.55).
1. Failed predictions…
28. “In 50 years… there will
be only 10 institutions in
the world delivering
higher education and
Udacity has a shot at
being one of them”
(cited in Leckart, 2013, P.28)
In a March 2012 Wired cover story, Sebastian
Thrun predicted:
1. Failed predictions…
29. “According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs
should now be exiting the ‘trough of
disillusionment’ and entering a period of
‘enlightenment’ as second-generation products
and services come onto the market (Linacre,
2014, P.4)
United States
1. Failed predictions…
30. Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group.
59%
11%
1. Failed predictions…
33. “Big data, powerful analytical tools, and
sophisticated data mining techniques is poised to
spark a revolution in how education is delivered
and in how the efficacy of that education is
measured”
(ECAR Working Report, 2015, p. 1).
http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ewg1510.pdf
1. Failed predictions…
36. “We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long
run.”
Amara’s Law
1. Failed predictions…
40. What will be the greatest
change to higher education by 2027?
2. Troublesome tensions…
41. Tension 1
The international demand for higher
education is growing exponentially
but relatively few universities around
the world are exploring the potential
of new models of online distance
learning for full degrees.
2. Troublesome tensions…
43. Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group.
2%
2. Troublesome tensions…
44. Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from http://
www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/22/lifelong-learning-and-technology/
2. Troublesome tensions…
49. Jansen, D., & Schuwer, R. (2015). Ins$tu$onal MOOC
strategies in Europe Status report based on a mapping survey
conducted in October - December 2014. EADTU – HOME
project.
EU
EU
MOOC Drivers
2. Troublesome tensions…
50. “It will not be possible to satisfy the rising
demand for Higher Education, especially
in developing countries, by relying on
traditional approaches.”
(Sir John Daniel, 2013)
Past President,
Commonwealth of Learning;
Previous Vice-Chancellor,
UK Open University
2. Troublesome tensions…
51. Blended, Online and Distance
(BOLD) education is booming but
the level of concern is increasing
throughout the world.
Tension 2
2. Troublesome tensions…
56. Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2015). Grade level: Tackling online education in the United States. Babson Survey
Research Group and Quahog Research Group, LLC.
2. Troublesome tensions…
57. UK Open University
Woodley, A., & Simpson, O. (2014). Student dropout: The elephant in the room (pp. 459-483). In O. Zawacki-Richter &
T. Anderson (Eds.). Online distance education: Towards a research agenda. Athabasca: AU Press.
2. Troublesome tensions…
67. While the benefits of higher
education have been quantified we
know very little about the societal
and economic returns on investment
for the subset of off-campus online
distance learners.
Tension 3
2. Troublesome tensions…
69. Stiles, J., Hout, M., & Brady, H. (2012). California’s economic payoff: Investing in college and completion. Available from
https://alumni.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Californias_Economic_Payoff_Executive_Summary.pdf
2. Troublesome tensions…
71. “There is also almost no understanding of
the private and social [public] benefits of
distance and online education in comparison
with those of face-to-face education” (Rumble,
2014, p.208).
Rumble, G. (2014). The costs and economics of online distance education (pp. 197-216). In O. Zawacki-Richter
& T. Anderson (Eds.). Online distance education: Towards a research agenda. Athabasca: AU Press.
2. Troublesome tensions…
73. 6. “National funding frameworks should create
incentives… for higher education
institutions to open up education, to
develop more flexible modes of delivery
and to diversify their student population.”
Recommendations
2. Troublesome tensions…
74. Callender, C. (2015). Putting part-time students at the heart of the system? In N. Hillman (ed.). It’s the finance, stupid: The decline
of part-time higher education and what to do about it. Oxford: UK: Higher Education Policy Institute. Available from http://
www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/part-time_web.pdf
2. Troublesome tensions…
75. 2.7%
Higher Education Authority. (2014). Higher education system performance. First report 2014-2016. Available from http://
www.hea.ie/sites/default/files/final_volume_i_system_report_with_cover_letter_.pdf
2. Troublesome tensions…
77. 3. Education for a better future…
What are some of
the major change forces
shaping the future of higher education?
78. What are some of
the major change forces
shaping the future of higher education?
• Globalization
• Population Mobility
• Demographic Changes
• Changing Nature of Work
• The Cost of Higher Education
3. Education for a better future…
80. “Despite huge advancements in
technology over the last 50 years, the
wealth gap between developed and
developing countries has more than
doubled” (John Pilger, 2002).
3. Education for a better future…
81. World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group
Flagship Report.
3. Education for a better future…
82. Global Attitudes Project, Pew Research, 2011
http://www.pewglobal.org/2011/11/17/the-american-western-european-values-gap/
The American-Western European Values Gap
3. Education for a better future…
99. Conclusion
“If new models of distance
education (including the use
of learning analytics) provide
a dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”