The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together

The Future Is Not What It Used To Be:
A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together
Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
IT Carlow
20th May, 2016

http://www.crn.com.au/news/sydney-school-bans-laptops-labels-them-scandalous-waste-of-money-417477

“We use to talk more
before someone
invented fire”

National Institute for Digital Learning
• DCU Connected
• Teaching Enhancement
• Digital Learning Research

Outline…
1. Dream solutions
2. Disruptive debates
3. Designs for uncertain times
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be:
A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together

“If digital learning is the
dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”
Key question…

The Rhetoric Reality Gap
Key tension…

This presentation does NOT
contain handy hints for teachers
Advance warning…

1. Dream solutions…
“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the world’s literature will be
available from The Automatic Library at the
mere pressing of a button”
(Uzanne, 1994).

“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the world’s literature will be
available from The Automatic Library at the
mere pressing of a button”
(Uzanne, 1894).

“Books will soon be obsolete in public schools.
Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is
possible to teach every branch of human
knowledge with the motion picture”.
(Thomas Edison, 1912)

“I believe that the motion picture is destined to
revolutionize our educational system and that
in a few years it will supplant largely, if not
entirely, the use of textbooks,”
(Thomas Edison, 1922)
1. Broken promises…

“The central and dominant aim of education by
radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to
make universally available the services of the finest
teachers, the inspiration of the greatest leaders...
and unfolding world events which through the radio
may come as a vibrant and challenging textbook
of the air.”
Benjamin Darrow 1932
Director of Ohio School of the Air

“We will undoubtedly have lectures of every
conceivable kind presented to us right in our
homes, when practical television arrives,
possibly a year or two off.”
Short Wave Craft, 1935

“Modern educators and psychologists have found,
through thousands of tests in the nations schools,
that “typewriter” children do better work… get from
10% to 30% higher grades...”
https://twitter.com/audreywatters/status/719231612865544192

Project Plato – 1960s

Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology
since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press.
Technology
Expectation Cycle
(1986)
High Expectations
Subsided Enthusiasm
Growing
Support

Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010).
MOOCs

“Resilience requires
adaptation and evolution to new
environmental conditions, but retains core identity”
(Weller & Anderson, 2013, p.55).

“In 50 years… there will
be only 10 institutions in
the world delivering
higher education and
Udacity has a shot at
being one of them”
(cited in Leckart, 2013, P.28)
In a March 2012 Wired cover story, Sebastian
Thrun predicted:

“According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs
should now be exiting the ‘trough of
disillusionment’ and entering a period of
‘enlightenment’ as second-generation products
and services come onto the market (Linacre,
2014, P.4)
United States

Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group.
59%
11%

Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from
http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/22/lifelong-learning-and-technology/

Students’ experiences
with MOOCs
https://library.educause.edu/resources/2015/8/2015-student-and-faculty-technology-research-studies

Worldwide
75%
English
Language

2015 - 35 million learners
2014 - 18 million learners
http://www.onlinecoursereport.com/state-of-the-mooc-2016-a-year-of-massive-landscape-change-for-massive-open-online-courses/

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long
run.”
Amara’s Law

“A prudent question is one-half of wisdom”
Francis Bacon
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz
Questions…

Laurentius de Voltolina – 14th Century
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture

lecture

Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/23/8410
lecture

“Because no two students have the same needs and no two
teachers arrive at their best performance in the same way,
theoretical exclusivity and didactic single-
mindedness can be trusted to make even the best
educational ideas fail”.
(Sfard, 1998, p.11)
lecture

1986 2016
Long ago our students danced at concerts, now they
click, video, share and tweet!
#2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time,
anywhere from your pocket

Helsper, E. J., & Eynon, R. (2010). Digital natives: Where is
the evidence? British Educational Research Journal, 36 (3),
503-520.

http://nogoodreason.typepad.co.uk/no_good_reason/2007/11/the-vlelms-is-d.html
“The VLE is Dead”
(Weller, 2007)

“The LMS is like a bus, it only travels on a pre-
arranged route, the bus is often late but you still have
to be on time because it won't wait if you miss it”
(Downes, 2015)

“At its simplest, blended learning is the
integration of classroom face-to-face
learning experiences with online learning
experiences”
(Garrison & Kanuka, 2004, p.96).
#3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional
pedagogy

Weak sense of blending…
pedagogy

“. . . an opportunity to fundamentally redesign
how we approach teaching and learning in ways
that higher education institutions may benefit from
increased effectiveness, convenience and
efficiency”
(Vaughan, 2012).
pedagogy

Stronger Sense of Blending…
pedagogy

pedagogy

The old ‘pump, pump, dump’
model of pedagogy may still dominate practice
pedagogy

http://teachonline.ca/sites/default/files/tools-trends/downloads/making_sense_of_blended_learning-eng.pdf
pedagogy

3. Designs for uncertain times…

‘A key principle of designing learning
for the future is to help make the
design process more explicit and
shareable’
(Conole, 2010, p.482).

Conceptualise
What do we want to design, who for and why?
Consolidate
Evaluate and embed your design
The
7Cs Design
Framework

"Using new digital technology to improve
education is not rocket science... it is
much, much harder than that”
(Diana Laurillard, 2009).

Learner-Content
Interaction
Learner-learner
Interaction
Teacher-Learner
Interaction
Interactivity
Framework
Places
Tools
Spaces

Learner-Content
Interaction
Learner-learner
Interaction
Teacher-Learner
Interaction
Interactivity
Framework
Place of Learning
(Where Learning Ocurrs)
Mode of Learning
(How Learning Occurs)
Pace of Learning
(When Learning Occurs)

Learning by sharing
(Connectivist)
Learning by listening
(Instructionist)
Learning by doing
(Constructivist)
Learning by making
(Constructionist)
Design compass…

Off Campus
in Class
Off Campus
out of Class
On Campus
in Class
Acquisition
Participation
On Campus
out of Class
Leakage
The Learning Ecology
Physical Virtual

Concept of Wrapping
Littlejohn, A., & Pegler, C. (2007). Preparing for Blended E- Learning. 70-93. New York: Routledge.

Conclusion
• Courage to explore new spaces
• Design for better outcomes
• Become a future maker
Three key lessons….

“Despite huge advancements in
technology over the last 50 years, the
wealth gap between developed and
developing countries has more than
doubled” (John Pilger, 2002).
Conclusion

World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group
Flagship Report.
Conclusion

“If digital learning is the
dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”
Conclusion

Access
Quality
Cost
Iron
Triangle
Conclusion

Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
www.dcu.ie/nidlmark.brown@dcu.ie
@mbrownz www.slideshare.net/mbrownz

The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together

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