A look at data mining for use in futures and foresight research.

1. State of the Future Index and Text Mining Second Semester Class 3 The Azerbaijan State Economic University March 4, 2011 Ted Gordon, Senior Fellow and Jerome Glenn, Executive Director, The Millennium Project Alan Porter, Director of R&D, Search Technology, Inc. & Co-Director, Technology Policy & Assessment Center Georgia Tech

11. The Global SOFI Variables R&D expenditures Corruption Improved water sources Percent unemployment School Enrollment, secondary Renewable Energy Energy consumption per GDP Internet Users Carbon Dioxide emissions People killed or injured in terrorist attacks GDP per capita Physicians per 1000 population Literacy rate Population growth rate Forest Lands People voting in elections Life expectancy at birth Food availability Infant mortality Number of refugees Homicides, intentional Debt Service (% of GNI) Seats held by women in parliaments Prevalence of HIV People Living in Extreme Poverty Global Temperature Anomalies Nuclear Proliferation Number of infectious diseases Number of armed conflicts People in Countries that are Free

12. Global SOFI Example of SOFI (State of the Future Index) variables: Infant mortality Food availability GNP per capita Access to fresh water CO2 emissions Literacy Wars AIDS deaths Terrorist attacks Debt ratio Unemployment Calories per capita Health care Forest lands Rich poor gap …

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16. Example of TIA Results

19. Dashboard Experiments: Getting Better

20. Dashboard Experiments: Getting Worse

21. Global SOFI Example of SOFI (State of the Future Index) variables: Infant mortality Food availability GNP per capita Access to fresh water CO2 emissions Literacy Wars AIDS deaths Terrorist attacks Debt ratio Unemployment Calories per capita Health care Forest lands Rich poor gap …

25. Developments Variables (ordered by importance): Prob Import Ready 28. Massive financial crisis triggers a world depression as large as in the 1930's 42.39 7.56 7.14 53. New technology displaces carbon fuels as cheapest energy source 30.70 7.33 6.43 45. Gulf Cooperation Council moves countries in the region toward EU-like arrangements agreements 46.43 7.22 7.04 26. Extremist political religious groups change the current direction of the region 47.25 7.21 7.42 48. Aging population doubles government social costs 65.42 7.16 6.44 44. Water scarcity problems are essentially solved (for example, through low cost desalination) 27.69 7.08 6.77 37. Extremists detonate nuclear devices, dirty bombs, or other weapons of mass destruction 24.97 7.00 5.92 39. Stability achieved in Iraq 45.38 7.00 7.60 32. Renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, provide 50% of the world's power 26.30 6.84 6.70 29. Most glaciers melt twice as fast as in the decade 2000 - 2009 51.19 6.67 6.21 41. OPEC's ability to control oil production dramatically dissipates 41.66 6.65 7.29 40. Cyber warfare is more difficult to detect and triples in damages from 2010 levels. 63.62 6.54 6.45 51. Economic growth spike in other global regions limits ability to attract talent 73.46 6.44 6.79 42. Middle East oil producing countries successfully diversify beyond energy production (50% of income from sources other than oil) 34.57 6.32 6.17

28. Tech Mining leverages text and data mining to analyze information. Since tech mining allows us to use computers to “read” the information, we can digest far more information than we could traditionally absorb. What does Tech Mining give us?

36. Ceramics Engine Publications (85-96) Technology Maturity & Keyword Diffusion Case Examples

40. Cognitive Sci. Agri Sci Biomed Sci Chemistry Physics Engineering Env Sci & Tech Mtls Sci Infectious Diseases Psychology Social Studies Clinical Med Computer Sci. Business & MGT Geosciences Ecol Sci Econ. Polit. & Geography Health & Social Issues Azerbaijan Research, 2005-09 on Global Map of Science, SCI-SSCI 2007

41. Research Profile: Azerbaijan 2005-09 by Disciplines (top 5) Case Examples Macro-Discipline Author Affiliations Key Terms Authors Year Top 3 Top 5 Top 3 2008-09 Chemistry[475] Natl Acad Sci Azerbaijan [119] Baku State Univ [95] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [48] synthesis [72] thermodynamic properties [27] Density [24] Water [23] methanol [21] Abdulagatov, I M [25] Magerramov, A M [19] Chyragov, F M [18] 48% of 475 Materials Sci[382] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [95] Baku State Univ [66] Azerbaijan Natl Acad Sci [64] effect [29] TlInS2 [19] Incommensurate phase [17] CRYSTALS [17] SINGLE-CRYSTALS [14] Suleymanov, R A [16] Altindal, S [14] Tagiev, O B [13] Mammadov, T S [13] 51% of 382 Engineering[333] Natl Acad Sci Azerbaijan [83] Baku State Univ [74] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [38] methanol [14] Initial stresses [11] sufficient conditions [10] thermodynamic properties [10] approximation [10] boundedness [10] Akbarov, S D [22] Guliyev, V S [16] Khanmamedov, A K [9] Abdulagatov, I M [9] Nasibov, S M [9] 50% of 333 Physics[231] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [58] Baku State Univ [47] Azerbaijan Natl Acad Sci [35] MODEL [22] PHYSICS [12] SCATTERING [10] VARIABILITY [10] SYSTEMS [9] Shahverdiev, E M [13] Shore, K A [13] Aliev, T M [12] Sultansoy, S [12] 51% of 231 Biomed Sci[105] Baku State Univ [27] Azerbaijan Med Univ [9] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [7] EFFICIENCY [10] sturgeons [8] diencephalon [7] CYTOARCHITECTONIC ANALYSIS [7] Azerbaijan [7] EXPRESSION [7] organization [7] Zeynalov, R [9] Musayev, I [9] Rustamov, E K [8] Dadasheva, N [8] 39% of 105

42. Research Profile: Baku State University – 5 Researchers Case Examples Authors Subject Category Key Terms Authors Year Top 5 Items Top 5 Items Top 5 Items 2008-09 Magerramov, A M[19] Chemistry, Applied [8] Chemistry, Organic [7] Chemistry, Physical [3] Materials Science, Multidisciplinary [2] Optics [2] reaction [9] synthesis [9] DERIVATIVES [4] reactions [3] formation [3] Magerramov, A M [19] Allakhverdiev, M A [9] Mamedov, I G [5] Bairamov, M R [5] Farzaliev, V M [4] Rzaeva, I A [4] 68% of 19 Chyragov, F M[18] Chemistry, Analytical [14] Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear [4] complexation [15] photometric determination [11] stability constants [8] Chyragov, F M [18] Gadzhieva, S R [12] Makhmudov, K T [6] Alieva, R A [5] Guseinov, F E [4] 17% of 18 Allakhverdiev, M A[14] Chemistry, Applied [8] Chemistry, Organic [5] Chemistry, Physical [3] Energy & Fuels [2] Engineering, Chemical [2] Engineering, Petroleum [2] synthesis [8] reaction [6] antioxidant activity [3] cumene [3] Allakhverdiev, M A [14] Magerramov, A M [9] Farzaliev, V M [6] Rzaeva, I A [6] Guseinova, A T [4] 79% of 14 Gadzhieva, S R[14] Chemistry, Analytical [9] Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear [5] complexation [11] photometric determination [8] stability constants [6] Gadzhieva, S R [14] Chyragov, F M [12] Makhmudov, K T [6] Guseinov, F E [4] Pashaev, F G [3] 29% of 14 Babanly, M B[12] Materials Science, Multidisciplinary [8] Electrochemistry [2] Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear [2] X-ray diffraction [7] thermodynamic properties [6] differential thermal analysis [6] standard entropies [5] Babanly, M B [12] Babanly, N B [2] Sadygov, F M [2] Shykhyev, Y M [2] Imamalieva, S Z [2] Yusibov, Y A [2] 100% of 12

43. Co-authoring among top Baku State Researchers Case Examples