2. Summary
MOOC Description and Demographics
Understanding Completion Rates
Predicting Completion Rates
EPFL– 12 February 2014
3. MOOC Description and Demographics
One MOOC, three tracks
A Centrale Lille MOOC, with many partners
Platform : Canvas.net, 5 weeks (March-April 2013)
Basic Statistics
•
3485 signed in for the spring edition
•
74.3% of them took part in the initial survey
EPFL– 12 February 2014
4. MOOC Description and Demographics
One MOOC, three tracks
Auditing
•
•
•
1h30 of video/week
Forums
Social Networks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Exam and quizz deadlines
Basic Certificate
•
•
•
Weekly Quizzes
Final Exam
~ 2 hours of work /week
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Assignment deadline
Advanced Certificate
•
•
•
Quizzes and Final exam
4 Peer-assessed assignments
~ 10 hours of work /week
Peer evaluation
EPFL– 12 February 2014
5. MOOC Description and Demographics
MOOC Demographics > Learners’ Background
Gender
Employment status
6.5
14.3
In Management positions
32.2
Employees
Masculine
67.8
52.2
13.7
Unemployed
Students
Feminine
Others
13.4
Human Development Index
24%
Very High
High
5%
4%
Medium
67%
Low
EPFL– 12 February 2014
6. Understanding Completion Rates
Achievements vs. Objectives
Learners’ achievements
Basic Certificate
Advanced Certificate
No-show
26%
Non-completers
Learners’ intentions (initial survey)
49%
12%
26%
45%
13%
Advanced Certificate
Basic Certificate
Score = Achievements - Objectives
43%
Unsure or not interested by a certificate
29%
43%
Null Score
Positive Score
14%
Negative Score
EPFL– 12 February 2014
7. Understanding Completion Rates
Analyzing Learners’ constraints
Less than 2 hours
Time constraints
Between 2 and 4 hours
9%
26%
Technical issues
16%
Between 4 and 6 hours
Skills
More than 6 hours
24%
22%
62%
41%
How much time do you intend to spend weekly for the MOOC ?
What was your main constraint (2nd edition of the MOOC) ?
• Lack of time seems to be one of the most important limiting factors for most learners
EPFL– 12 February 2014
8. Understanding Completion Rates
Achievements, Constraints and Objectives
2=
Achievement
191, p < 0.001
400
350
Number of participants
2=
NC : Non Completer
BC : Basic Certificate
AC : Advanced Certificate
300
< 2 hours
250
2-4 hours
200
4-6 hours
150
> 6 hours
100
Objective
193, p < 0.001
BC : Basic Certificate
AC : Advanced Certificate
NT: No Target or unsure
500
450
Number of participants
450
400
350
300
AC
250
BC
200
NT
150
100
50
50
0
0
NC
BC
AC
Achievement vs. Time constraints
NC
BC
AC
Achievement vs. Initial Objectives
• Time constraints and learners’ initial objectives are among the best predictors
• Strong influence of employment status, experience in project management
EPFL– 12 February 2014
9. Understanding Completion Rates
Achievement score and learner’s background
800
2=
Human Development Index
307, p < 0.001
Low
700
800
2=
31, p < 0.001
700
Medium or high
600
Very high
500
600
Male
500
400
Female
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
Negative
Null
Positive
Negative
Null
Positive
• Strong impact of Human Development Index on achievements (Lower Score for low HDI)
• Men tend to overestimate their abilities compared to women
EPFL– 12 February 2014
10. Predicting Completion Rates
Learners forum activity : views vs. post
Number of discussion threads viewed
Number of posts
• Most learners use forums, very few actually post
• Is forum activity a good predictor for completion ?
EPFL– 12 February 2014
11. Predicting Completion Rates
Completion vs. Forum activity and involvment in peer assessment
At the scale of the MOOC
2000
2=
In the advanced track only
500
498, p < 0.001
2=
146, p < 0.001
NC
1600
BC
NC
400
BC
AC
AC
1200
300
800
200
400
100
0
0
One post or more
No post
Achievement vs. Posting in the forum
No evaluation
Evaluation
Achievement vs. Participation in peer assessment
• Learners active in forums are way more likely to complete the course
• Learners who do not take part in the peer assessment process won’t complete the advanced track
EPFL– 12 February 2014
12. Conclusion
• Most learners came from high HDI countries, and were in management positions
• 38% of registered participants obtained a certificate, 57% reached or exceeded their objectives
• Lack of time seems to be the main constraint for most participants
• Human Development Index has a strong influence on achievement (completion, and score)
• Forum activity and involvment in peer assessment are good predictors of completion
EPFL– 12 February 2014