Research interests: macroecology, landscape pathology and network epidemiology. Epidemiological modelling in small-size directed networks, landscape pathology of fire blight in Switzerland, biogeographic patterns in the living collections of the world's botanic gardens

1. The use of networks in the
study of climate-related
vulnerabilities
Marco Pautasso,
Division of Biology,
Imperial College London,
Silwood Park
PIK Potsdam, 2 August 2010

2. Research
y Empirical
Biodiversity x
Disease
z
Theoretical Review

3. Research interests - 1. Macroecology
abundance (individuals)
(c)
Log10 assemblage
Log10 plot area (km2)
Log10 plot area (km2)
Survey year
(a), (b) & (c) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2006) Global Ecology & Biogeography;
(d) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005) Ecology Letters

4. Research interests - 2. Landscape pathology
Picture: D. Rizzo, UC Davis Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews

5. Research interests - 3. Network epidemiology
NATURAL
Network pictures from:
Newman (2003) SIAM Review
food webs
cell
metabolism
neural Food web of Little Rock
networks Lake, Wisconsin, US
ant nests sexual
partnerships
DISEASE
SPREAD
family
innovation networks
Internet flows co-authorship HIV
structure railway urban road nets spread
electrical networks networks network
power grids telephone calls
WWW
computing airport Internet E-mail
committees
grids networks software maps patterns
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
Modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist

6. Current research – 1. epidemic modelling
in small-size directed networks
N replicates = 100;
error bars are St. Dev.;
different letters show
sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology

7. Current research -
2. fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland
2003-07
1995 1999
2003 2007
From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

8. Current research – 3. biogeography of the
(a)
living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(c)
(c)
log10 spp richness (n)
(d)
(yr)
(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens
(d)
b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/
a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

9. Acknowledgements
Ingrid Parmentier,
Peter Weisberg, Univ. of Brussels,
Univ. of Nevada, Belgium
Reno, USA Mike Jeger,
Ottmar Mike Shaw,
Imperial College, Univ. of
Holdenrieder, Silwood
ETHZ, CH Reading
Kevin
Gaston,
Mike Univ. of
McKinney, Sheffield Joan Webber,
Univ. of Forest Research
Mathieu
Tennessee, Moslonka-Lefebvre,
USA Agro-Paris Tech, France

10. US counties with (•) or without (o)
Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

11. European trade flows in ornamental plants (2004)
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae

12. Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network
pt probability of infection transmission
pp probability of infection persistence
node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100
step 1
step 2
step 3
…
step n
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology

13. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks
with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
1.00
local
probability of persistence
random
0.75 small-world
scale-free (two-way)
scale-free (uncorrelated)
0.50 scale-free (one way)
0.25
0.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Epidemic probability of transmission
does not
develop Epidemic develops
modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity

14. Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

15. References
Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural
industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15
Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness
patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105:
689-696
Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network
and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361
MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests and
challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic
threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O &
Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents.
Phytopathology 101: 392-403
Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology,
Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189
Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010)
Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755
Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor
of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432
Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size
directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309
Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen
(Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516