An introduction to the species-people correlation, species, people and networks, ramorum leaf blight, sudden oak death, complex networks, network epidemiology, network theory, scale-free degree distribution, epidemic threshold and final size, clustering coefficient, stream macro-invertebrates, Phytophthora ramorum, Sudden Oak Death

1. Species, people and networks
Marco Pautasso 1 March 2010

2. Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation
Araujo
(2003)
McKinney GEB
(2003)
Moreno-
Biol Cons
Rueda & Ding et al.
Pizarro (2008)
(2006) J
Ecol Res
Vazquez Hunter Biogeog
& Gaston (2006) & Jonzon
Biodiv & Cons (1993) CB
Balmford
et al. (2001)
Science
Real et al. Chown et al. Luck (2007)
(2003) J Diniz-Filho et al. (2003) Ecol Appl J Biogeog
Biogeog (2006) Acta Oecol.
World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis
by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission

3. A positive species-people correlation
for vascular plants in US counties
4
log10 vascular plant spp richness (n)
2
n = 2877, r = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001
3
2
1
2 3 4 5 6 7
log10 human population size (n)
Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora, Ohio and Virginia not included

4. 1. Sampling bias?
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

5. US counties with (•) or without (o)
Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

6. Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world
passengers
From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)

7. Epidemiology is just one of the
many applications of network theory
Network pictures from: NATURAL
Newman (2003)
SIAM Review food webs
cell
metabolism
neural Food web of Little Rock
networks Lake, Wisconsin, US
ant nests sexual
partnerships
DISEASE
SPREAD
family
innovation networks
Internet flows co-authorship HIV
structure railway urban road nets spread
electrical networks networks network
power grids telephone calls
WWW
computing airport Internet E-mail
committees
grids networks software maps patterns
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist

8. Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network
pt probability of infection transmission
pp probability of infection persistence
node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100
step 1
step 2
step 3
…
step n
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology

9. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks
with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
1.00
local
probability of persistence
random
0.75 small-world
scale-free (two-way)
scale-free (uncorrelated)
0.50 scale-free (one way)
0.25
0.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Epidemic probability of transmission
does not
develop Epidemic develops
modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity

10. Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks
(unless networks are sparsely connected)
N replicates = 100;
error bars are St. Dev.;
different letters show
sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) JTB

11. Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of
starting node increases with network connectivity
from: Pautasso
et al. (2010) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.;
Ecol Compl different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05

12. Multi-scale correlation of human presence and
Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence
from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology

13. Sudden Oak Death in California
from Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution

14. 2. Species introductions?
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

15. Spatial analysis of P. ramorum reported cases in England/Wales:
garden/nurseries vs. semi-natural environment
c: SNE - Garden/Nursery 04 - 05 f: Garden/Nursery - SNE 04 - 05
0.20 0.30
0.24
0.15
0.18
0.10
0.12
0.05
0.06
O12(r) values
0.00 0.00
d: SNE - Garden/Nursery 05 - 06 g: Garden/Nursery - SNE 05 - 06
0.20 0.4
0.15 0.3
0.10 0.2
0.05 0.1
0.00 0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Distance (km) Distance (km)
from: Xu et al. (2009) Ecography

16. from: Harwood et al. (2009) Ecological Modelling

17. Ants and people in Europe
(a) 3.0
2
y = -0.19 + 0.29x, s.s.e. = 0.03, r = 0.42, p < 0.0001
(c) 3.0
y = -1.00 + 0.87x, s.s.e. = 0.13, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.0001
log10 ant species richness (n)
log10 ant species richness (n)
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
log10 human population size (n) log10 plant species richness (n)
(b) 3.0 (d) 3.0
2
y = 0.67 + 0.22x, s.s.e = 0.02, r = 0.30, p < 0.0001 y = 0.65 - 0.27x, s.s.e. = 0.64, r2 = 0.02, p = 0.67
log10 ant species richness (n)
log10 ant species richness (n)
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 -4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2
log10 country area (km2) Boltzmann transformed temperature (1/kT)
from Schlick-Steiner et al. (2008) Journal of Biogeography

18. Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(c)
(a) (c)
log10 spp richness (n)
(d) (yr)
(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens
(d)
b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/
a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

19. Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

20. 3. Active conservation?
Cupressus Quercus robur, Udine
sempervirens, Forli
Celtis australis, San Gimignano
Castanea sativa,
St. Alfio, Sicily
people / km2
Quercus cerris,
Amatrice, Latium Photos of veteran trees courtesy of G. Bortolotti;
Map of human population density from Swiss Federal Statistical Office no information

21. Ancient trees in Italy’s regions and provinces
(b) 3
(a) (c) 2
(c)
log10 veteran tree individuals
log10 veteran tree species
2
1
1
2
2
y = -1.99 + 0.58x, r = 0.56, p < 0.0001 y = -1.70 + 0.47x, r = 0.69, p < 0.0001
0 0
4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8
log10 region human population size log10 region human population size
(b)
(b) (d) 2
2
2
(c)
y = -2.98 + 0.68x, r = 0.13, p < 0.0001 2
y = -2.03 + 0.49x, r = 0.15, p < 0.0001
log10 veteran tree individuals
log10 veteran tree species
1 1
0 0
4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7
log 10 province human population size
log10 province human population size
a & b: abundance, c & d: spp richness,
a & c: regions; b & d: provinces; from: Pautasso & Chiarucci (2008) Annals of Botany

22. Birds, people and protected areas in Italy’s regions
from: Pautasso & Dinetti (2009) Environmental Conservation

23. Macrofungi and human population in Italy’s regions
from: Pautasso & Zotti (2009) Biodiversity and Conservation

24. Plant Health, Global Change and Landscape Management
Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews

25. Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
Pinus pinea (Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution)
Pautasso (2009) Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution & Systematics

26. Structural change in the international horticultural
industry: implications for plant health
(trade in ornamental plants)
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae

27. Plant health and stakeholder engagement
MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security

28. What about stream macro-invertebrates
(may-, stone- & caddis-flies)?
Pictures from http://biokeys.berkeley.edu
from Pautasso & Fontaneto (2008) Ecological Applications

29. Scale-dependence of the correlation between species richness of
stream macro-invertebrates and people
from Pecher et al. (2010) Basic and Applied Ecology

30. Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative
birds in Florence
from: Chiari et al. (2010) J Animal Ecology

31. Grasshoppers and people in Europe
from Steck & Pautasso (2008) Acta Oecologica

32. Sampling effort explains the correlation between species
richness of Orthoptera and people in Italy
from Cantarello et al. (2010) Naturwissenschaften

33. Random sample of 100 papers per year
on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)
from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research

34. Acknowledgements
Diego
Kevin
Fontaneto,
Gaston,
Mike McKinney, Stockholm
Sheffield Ingrid
Knoxville
Susanne Fritz, Parmentier,
Copenhagen Bruxelles
Peter
Weisberg, Glen Powell, Mathieu
South Ken Moslonka- Mike Jeger, Caroline Lorenzo
Reno Pecher,
Lefebvre, Paris Silwood Marini,
Bozen Padova
Ottmar Alessandro
Birgit & Florian Schlick- Tom
Holdenrieder, Claude Steck, Chiarucci, Harwood,
Zurich Birmensdorf Steiner, Innsbruck Siena Canberra

35. References
Jokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecology
for a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from
genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403
Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L,
Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology &
Biogeography 20: 426-436
Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441
Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development?
Animal Conservation 13: 446-447
Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for
sampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271
Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371
Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia
Horticulturae 125: 1-15
Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic
gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696
MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70
Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202
Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237
Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315
Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for
landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755
Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks.
Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432
Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories.
Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309
Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of stream
macroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280
Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P.
kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and
clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411

36. References (bis)
Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189
Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31
Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846
Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italy's regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485
Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32:
504-516
Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126
Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11
Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127:
1-22
Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715
Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849
Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological
Complexity 5: 1-8
Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210
Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. J
of Biogeography 35: 2195-2206
Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310
Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197
Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24
Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-
1340
Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica
Helvetica 117: 15-28
Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317
Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289
Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M,
Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289
Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and
Evolution 19, 8: 446-452