Treb housing market charts november 2015

1. Housing Market Charts – November 2015

2. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The
recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS Sales
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
2012 2013 2014 2015

3. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three
years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each
month.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS New Listings
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
2012 2013 2014 2015

4. Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous
three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation.
When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
2012 2013 2014 2015

5. Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the
previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous
years for each month.
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS Average Resale Home Price
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
2012 2013 2014 2015

6. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown
line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS Sales
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
Actual MLS® Sales
Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

7. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings.
The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS New Listings
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
Actual MLS® New Listings
Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

8. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average
price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or
other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the
trend.
175,000
225,000
275,000
325,000
375,000
425,000
475,000
525,000
575,000
625,000
675,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS Average Price
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
Actual MLS® Average Price
Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

9. Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per
cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in
home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change
in home prices generally trends lower.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
AveragePriceAnnualPerCentChange
(BrownLine)
Sales-to-NewListingsRatio
(BlueLine)
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to
Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
Average Price Annual Per Cent Change

10. Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities
for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:
1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2. 20 per cent down payment
3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by
Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
*Note: Assumes TREB average priceand average 5-Year fixed ratemortgage
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Dataand Calculation; Statistics Canada
TREB Affordability Indicator
Share of Average Household Income Usedfor Mortgage Principaland Interest,
Property Taxesand Utilitieson theAveraged Priced GTA ResaleHome