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AppTheories_L7

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Manu Muñoz H
Manu Muñoz H

AppTheories_L7

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Summary and Overview Lecture Week 7 - Application of Theories Block A 2013/2014
Aims of the lecture
In this lecture we will: Summarize what we have learned in this course! ! ! ! ! !
In this lecture we will: Summarize what we have learned in this course! ! Integrate insights from separate lectures and demonstrate how the different methods can be applied to develop an adequate explanation of a sociological prediction! !
In this lecture we will: Summarize what we have learned in this course! ! Integrate insights from separate lectures and demonstrate how the different methods can be applied to develop an adequate explanation of a sociological prediction! ! Discuss the setup of the exam
Week 1: General introduction
Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! ! !
Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! !
Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! ! Theory: why do we observe X?
Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! ! Theory: why do we observe X?! ! Generating (new) testable hypotheses with the theory:! If this is why we see X, then what else should we see (Y, Z)?! And, under what conditions should we see X, Y and Z?
Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! ! Theory: why do we observe X?! ! Generating (new) testable hypotheses with the theory:! If this is why we see X, then what else should we see (Y, Z)?! And, under what conditions should we see X, Y and Z?! ! Application: If our theory is right, what would be a good policy to influence X, Y and Z?! ! This course focuses on methods and standards for developing and applying theoretical explanations.
Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! ! ! ! ! !
Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! Clearly state what you assume! ! ! ! !
Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! Clearly state what you assume! ! If needed: think up your own assumptions!! ! !
Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! Clearly state what you assume! ! If needed: think up your own assumptions!! ! Use your theory creatively: always think of new ways how you can test and apply your theories
Features of good explanations (Lave & March) Simplicity! Few and clear assumptions! ! ! ! ! ! !
Features of good explanations (Lave & March) Simplicity! Few and clear assumptions! ! Fertility! Make your explanations as generally applicable as possible:! Generate many new testable predictions! ! !
Features of good explanations (Lave & March) Simplicity! Few and clear assumptions! ! Fertility! Make your explanations as generally applicable as possible:! Generate many new testable predictions! ! Surprise! Counter-intuitive predictions (i.e., unintended consequences)
Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation! ! And, test them for this situation: only one can be right! ! ! ! ! ! !
Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation! ! And, test them for this situation: only one can be right! ! ! Example: Two competing explanations for residential segregation! ! Housing prices and income inequality! ! Racial homophily
Week 2: A model of explanation and prediction
Participation in Monday demonstrations in GDR 1989 Source: Table 1 from Braun, Norman. 1995. Individual Thresholds and Social Diffusion. Rationality and Society 7:167-182.
Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon
Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon Events showing regime weakness Revolution
Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon Events showing regime weakness Revolution
Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon Events showing regime weakness Revolution For instance:! Political changes in the Soviet Union (Glasnot, Perestrojka)! Gorbachev’s speech in Berlin: Life punishes those who come too late! Negotiations between US and SU! Reformation/revolution in Hungary and Poland
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) General law
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum
What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation where all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2)
What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans
What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans Condition 2: The explanans must contain at least one general law and at least one singular statement (... necessary to derive the explanandum)
What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans Condition 2: The explanans must contain at least one general law and at least one singular statement (... necessary to derive the explanandum) Condition 3: The explanans must have empirical content
What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans Condition 2: The explanans must contain at least one general law and at least one singular statement (... necessary to derive the explanandum) Condition 3: The explanans must have empirical content Condition 4: All statements of the explanans must be true
Stop and think.... Condition 4: All statements of the explanans must be true
Stop and think.... think about how condition 4 relates to what Popper (reading week 3) is saying about the difference of “verifiability” and “falsifiability” as criteria for good theories (pg. 40) Condition 4: All statements of the explanans must be true
Some things to note about the material in week 2 Understand the example about the importance of the -often implicit- ceteris paribus assumption! ! !
Some things to note about the material in week 2 Understand the example about the importance of the -often implicit- ceteris paribus assumption! ! Durkheim’s theory about suicide, versus data on suicide and marital status in the Netherlands, controlling for age
Week 3: Introduction to formal logic
Operator 4: Implication Symbol: ⊃ (horseshoe) or → Read: “if p then q” p q p 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 The implication of p and q is false only if p is true and q is false Example: If Popper is a sociologist, then he is a Marxist. Popper is a sociologist + Popper is a Marxist : wff is valid Popper is a sociologist + Popper is not a Marxist : wff is invalid Popper is not a sociologist + Popper is a Marxist : wff is valid Popper is not a sociologist + Popper is not a Marxist : wff is valid
Working with truth tables Example: Let us demonstrate for which combination of truth values of p and q is it is correct to state: “p and q are equivalent (p≡q)”. Thus, we want to show that:
Working with truth tables Example: Let us demonstrate for which combination of truth values of p and q is it is correct to state: “p and q are equivalent (p≡q)”. Thus, we want to show that: (if p, then q) and (if q, then p)
Working with truth tables Example: Let us demonstrate for which combination of truth values of p and q is it is correct to state: “p and q are equivalent (p≡q)”. Thus, we want to show that: (if p, then q) and (if q, then p) p q p q (p 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 Definition of an equality This proves that: (p≡q)≡((p⊃q)·(q⊃p))
When is a rule of inference valid? It is always true (for every combination of truth values of the elementary propositions p, q, etc.) that the conclusion is an implication of (follows logically from) the conjunction of the premises.
Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic To formulate a correct wff, you need only five words:
Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic To formulate a correct wff, you need only five words: all! no! some! is ! not
Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic There are only eight (8) forms of wffs:
Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic There are only eight (8) forms of wffs: all A is B All swans are white! no A is B There are no white swans! some A is B Some swans are white! some A is not B Some swans are not white! x is B This swan is white! x is not B This swan is not white! x is y This is the only white swan! x is not y This is not the white swan Any sentence can be translated into a wff of one of these forms
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test The star test consist of three steps:
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test The star test consist of three steps: Step 1: Find the “distributed letters” A letter is distributed if it occurs just after “all” or anywhere after “no” or “not”
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test The star test consist of three steps: Step 1: Find the “distributed letters” A letter is distributed if it occurs just after “all” or anywhere after “no” or “not” all A is B! no A is B! x is A! x is not y Underline the distributed letters
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: !
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: Star premises letters which are distributed and conclusion letters which are not distributed
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: Star premises letters which are distributed and conclusion letters which are not distributed all A is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C is B
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: Star premises letters which are distributed and conclusion letters which are not distributed all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B*
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3:! ! !
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B*
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B* Each capital letter is starred exactly once
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B* Each capital letter is starred exactly once There is exactly one star at the right hand side (see the B)
Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B* Each capital letter is starred exactly once There is exactly one star at the right hand side (see the B) Thus, this syllogism is valid.
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E is R! ! ! E R
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E is R! g is E ! ! E Rg
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E is R! g is E ----------! g is R E Rg
Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E* is R! g is E ----------! g is R* E RThis is valid g
Some things to note about the material in week 3 Check the differences between sound and valid
Week 4: How to criticize a theory
To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! Does the theory contain statements that contradict each other?! ! ! ! ! ! !
To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! Does the theory contain statements that contradict each other?! ! Is it reasonably possible to operationalize the concepts about which the theory generates predictions (empirical content)! ! ! !
To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! Does the theory contain statements that contradict each other?! ! Is it reasonably possible to operationalize the concepts about which the theory generates predictions (empirical content)! ! Something to note:! ! What to do if a theory is wrong? (see examples in weeks 4 and 5)
All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G) S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications
S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 4 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 4 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications 4 (3) has more empirical content than 2 (1)! All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 4 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications 4 (3) has more empirical content than 2 (1)! 4 (2) has more empirical content than 3 (1) All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
Week 5: Explaining social phenomena based on theories about individual behavior
A valid macro-explanation: Our example. Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E* is R! g is E ----------! g is R* E RgThis is valid
Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! ! ! ! ! ! !
Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! ! ! ! ! !
Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! Explicate what sort of political events have effects! ! ! ! !
Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! Explicate what sort of political events have effects! Explain why the macro-law appears to be false in some settings! ! ! !
Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! Explicate what sort of political events have effects! Explain why the macro-law appears to be false in some settings! ! Example: After the financial crises, Greece and Island experienced critical political crises. However, there was no revolution in European countries. This suggests that the macro-law holds only under certain conditions.
A structural-individualistic explanation Macro! level Political events Revolution
A structural-individualistic explanation Macro! level Individual! level Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success
A structural-individualistic explanation Macro! level Individual! level Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
A structural-individualistic explanation Macro! level Individual! level Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest We have added three new assumptions to the explanation! Each new assumption needs to be explained and for each we need to check whether all conditions of adequacy are met
Main elements of an individualistic explanation(i.e., Coleman, Lindenberg) Independent! Macro-variable Dependent! Macro-variable Input individual choice:! Choice options! Information! Costs and benefits... Output: ! Individual choice Explanandum: ! Macro relationship Theory ! of action Bridge ! assumptions Transformation ! assumptions
Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country General law
Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country General law Auxiliary assumption Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too General law Auxiliary assumption Explanandum Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too General law Auxiliary assumption Explanandum Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Why do we expect this? Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too General law Auxiliary assumption Explanandum Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Why do we expect this? This law could be derived from another general theory: Heider’s Balance theory Changes happen My country Other country This is perceivedInferred Similar + + + Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) all P is I! ! ! E I P
Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) Many people in GDR (E) perceived changes in similar countries (P) all P is I! some E is P ------------------! E I P
Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) Many people in GDR (E) perceived changes in similar countries (P) Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I) all P is I! some E is P ------------------! some E is I E I x P
Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) Many people in GDR (E) perceived changes in similar countries (P) Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I) all P* is I! some E is P ------------------! some E*is I* This is valid E I x P
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! Thus, one would expect that people who consider the Chinese system as similar and were informed about unsuccessful protests (s·~c) would not consider change possible in GDR (~p).! ! ! ! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! Thus, one would expect that people who consider the Chinese system as similar and were informed about unsuccessful protests (s·~c) would not consider change possible in GDR (~p).! ! General problem: There have been very few empirical studies in GDR. Might be difficult to gather data but not impossible).! !
How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! Thus, one would expect that people who consider the Chinese system as similar and were informed about unsuccessful protests (s·~c) would not consider change possible in GDR (~p).! ! General problem: There have been very few empirical studies in GDR. Might be difficult to gather data but not impossible).! However, the law is general. ! Thus, it can be falsified also in alternative settings (Arab countries, experiments)
Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest General law Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest Many people in GDR participated in political protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Explanandum Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest Many people in GDR participated in political protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Explanandum Why do we expect this? Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest Many people in GDR participated in political protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Explanandum Why do we expect this? This follows from the Theory of rational action! Individuals have preferences (i.e., dissatisfaction) and perceive restrictions (chances of success)! They choose the action alternative (protest vs. no protest) that maximizes their utility Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) all I is O! ! ! E O I
Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) all I is O! some E is I ------------------! E O x I Many people in GDR (E) inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I)
Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) Many people in GDR (E) participated in political protest (O) all I is O! some E is I ------------------! some E is O E O x I Many people in GDR (E) inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I)
Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) Many people in GDR (E) participated in political protest (O) all I* is O! some E is I ------------------! some E*is O* This is valid E O x I Many people in GDR (E) inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I)
Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign General law
Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign The GDR regime resigned General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption Explanandum After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign The GDR regime resigned General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption Explanandum Why do we expect this? After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign The GDR regime resigned General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption Explanandum Why do we expect this? This follows from the Theory of rational action! the regime might have realized that it had lost the possibility to regain power. The rational thing to do was to give up! This will be very difficult to test. Nevertheless, the law has empirical content After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) all L is S! ! ! L S
Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) all L is S! h is L ------------------! After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) realized that it lost control and power (L) L Sh
Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) resigned (S) all L is S! h is L ------------------! h is S After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) realized that it lost control and power (L) L Sh
Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) resigned (S) all L* is S! h is L ------------------! h is S* This is valid After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) realized that it lost control and power (L) L Sh
We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! Conditions:! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! Conditions:! People perceive changes in similar countries! People infer from this perception that political change is possible! Regime realizes that it lost control and power! ! ! Summary
We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! Conditions:! People perceive changes in similar countries! People infer from this perception that political change is possible! Regime realizes that it lost control and power! ! We might now develop hypotheses about the conditions under which the assumptions do not hold Summary
Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! West German TV! Eastern German secret service! Speeches of intellectuals at demonstration! Newly founded newspapers in GDR! Expert interviews (i.e., study by Opp and Gern)! Retrospective interview methods! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! West German TV! Eastern German secret service! Speeches of intellectuals at demonstration! Newly founded newspapers in GDR! Expert interviews (i.e., study by Opp and Gern)! Retrospective interview methods! ! Our explanation of the revolution in GDR is based in general statements. This makes it possible to apply the general theory also to other settings (i.e., Arab countries, gay movement, experimental research)! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! West German TV! Eastern German secret service! Speeches of intellectuals at demonstration! Newly founded newspapers in GDR! Expert interviews (i.e., study by Opp and Gern)! Retrospective interview methods! ! Our explanation of the revolution in GDR is based in general statements. This makes it possible to apply the general theory also to other settings (i.e., Arab countries, gay movement, experimental research)! ! Applying the theory to other settings allows us to test our explanation of the revolution in GDR. How to further test the theory?
Week 6: Applying theory to generate policy advice
What are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! The most important criterion is that you have a valid reasoning: ! ! You have an adequate explanation (according to the adequacy conditions) of how the expected effects of the proposed policy logically follow from an explicitly formulated theory (law + condition) Summary (1)
Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain! ! Step 2: Develop valid explanations for these phenomena! ! Step 3: Derive from the theory that you use to explain the phenomena, why the proposed policy advice should have the proposed effects (valid reasoning) Summary (2)
Learn what are the problems of applying theories to real life problems! ! The most important problem is that you overlook implicit ceteris paribus assumptions in your reasoning that turn out to not be true! ! One way to address this problem is that you try to develop deeper explanations that specify under which conditions certain premises apply and when they do not apply Summary (3)
The exam
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! ! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! You need to have 55% of the maximum number of points to pass (60%)! ! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! You need to have 55% of the maximum number of points to pass (60%)! Everything below 6 is failed! ! Rules
Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! You need to have 55% of the maximum number of points to pass (60%)! Everything below 6 is failed! ! Good luck! Rules
The test exam is in Nestor

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AppTheories_L7

  • 1. Summary and Overview Lecture Week 7 - Application of Theories Block A 2013/2014
  • 2. Aims of the lecture
  • 3. In this lecture we will: Summarize what we have learned in this course! ! ! ! ! !
  • 4. In this lecture we will: Summarize what we have learned in this course! ! Integrate insights from separate lectures and demonstrate how the different methods can be applied to develop an adequate explanation of a sociological prediction! !
  • 5. In this lecture we will: Summarize what we have learned in this course! ! Integrate insights from separate lectures and demonstrate how the different methods can be applied to develop an adequate explanation of a sociological prediction! ! Discuss the setup of the exam
  • 6. Week 1: General introduction
  • 7. Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! ! !
  • 8. Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! !
  • 9. Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! ! Theory: why do we observe X?
  • 10. Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! ! Theory: why do we observe X?! ! Generating (new) testable hypotheses with the theory:! If this is why we see X, then what else should we see (Y, Z)?! And, under what conditions should we see X, Y and Z?
  • 11. Aims of this course Learning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena! ! Social phenomenon X: observation, description! ! Theory: why do we observe X?! ! Generating (new) testable hypotheses with the theory:! If this is why we see X, then what else should we see (Y, Z)?! And, under what conditions should we see X, Y and Z?! ! Application: If our theory is right, what would be a good policy to influence X, Y and Z?! ! This course focuses on methods and standards for developing and applying theoretical explanations.
  • 12. Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 13. Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 14. Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 15. Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! Clearly state what you assume! ! ! ! !
  • 16. Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! Clearly state what you assume! ! If needed: think up your own assumptions!! ! !
  • 17. Do it yourself Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)! ! Explanation:! ! Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions! ! Clearly state what you want to explain! ! Clearly state what you assume! ! If needed: think up your own assumptions!! ! Use your theory creatively: always think of new ways how you can test and apply your theories
  • 18. Features of good explanations (Lave & March) Simplicity! Few and clear assumptions! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 19. Features of good explanations (Lave & March) Simplicity! Few and clear assumptions! ! Fertility! Make your explanations as generally applicable as possible:! Generate many new testable predictions! ! !
  • 20. Features of good explanations (Lave & March) Simplicity! Few and clear assumptions! ! Fertility! Make your explanations as generally applicable as possible:! Generate many new testable predictions! ! Surprise! Counter-intuitive predictions (i.e., unintended consequences)
  • 21. Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 22. Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 23. Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation! ! And, test them for this situation: only one can be right! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 24. Competing explanations:Think of a critical test Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon! ! Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation! ! And, test them for this situation: only one can be right! ! ! Example: Two competing explanations for residential segregation! ! Housing prices and income inequality! ! Racial homophily
  • 25. Week 2: A model of explanation and prediction
  • 26. Participation in Monday demonstrations in GDR 1989 Source: Table 1 from Braun, Norman. 1995. Individual Thresholds and Social Diffusion. Rationality and Society 7:167-182.
  • 27. Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon
  • 28. Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon Events showing regime weakness Revolution
  • 29. Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon Events showing regime weakness Revolution
  • 30. Structural approach Strategy: Argue that the macro-phenomenon “Protest in GDR” was caused by another macro-phenomenon Events showing regime weakness Revolution For instance:! Political changes in the Soviet Union (Glasnot, Perestrojka)! Gorbachev’s speech in Berlin: Life punishes those who come too late! Negotiations between US and SU! Reformation/revolution in Hungary and Poland
  • 31. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) General law
  • 32. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions
  • 33. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum
  • 34. What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation where all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2)
  • 35. What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans
  • 36. What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans Condition 2: The explanans must contain at least one general law and at least one singular statement (... necessary to derive the explanandum)
  • 37. What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans Condition 2: The explanans must contain at least one general law and at least one singular statement (... necessary to derive the explanandum) Condition 3: The explanans must have empirical content
  • 38. What is a good explanation? A good explanation is an explanation here all conditions of adequacy are met Hempel/Oppenheim, week 2) Condition 1: The explanandum must be a logical consequence of the explanans Condition 2: The explanans must contain at least one general law and at least one singular statement (... necessary to derive the explanandum) Condition 3: The explanans must have empirical content Condition 4: All statements of the explanans must be true
  • 39. Stop and think.... Condition 4: All statements of the explanans must be true
  • 40. Stop and think.... think about how condition 4 relates to what Popper (reading week 3) is saying about the difference of “verifiability” and “falsifiability” as criteria for good theories (pg. 40) Condition 4: All statements of the explanans must be true
  • 41. Some things to note about the material in week 2 Understand the example about the importance of the -often implicit- ceteris paribus assumption! ! !
  • 42. Some things to note about the material in week 2 Understand the example about the importance of the -often implicit- ceteris paribus assumption! ! Durkheim’s theory about suicide, versus data on suicide and marital status in the Netherlands, controlling for age
  • 43. Week 3: Introduction to formal logic
  • 44. Operator 4: Implication Symbol: ⊃ (horseshoe) or → Read: “if p then q” p q p 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 The implication of p and q is false only if p is true and q is false Example: If Popper is a sociologist, then he is a Marxist. Popper is a sociologist + Popper is a Marxist : wff is valid Popper is a sociologist + Popper is not a Marxist : wff is invalid Popper is not a sociologist + Popper is a Marxist : wff is valid Popper is not a sociologist + Popper is not a Marxist : wff is valid
  • 45. Working with truth tables Example: Let us demonstrate for which combination of truth values of p and q is it is correct to state: “p and q are equivalent (p≡q)”. Thus, we want to show that:
  • 46. Working with truth tables Example: Let us demonstrate for which combination of truth values of p and q is it is correct to state: “p and q are equivalent (p≡q)”. Thus, we want to show that: (if p, then q) and (if q, then p)
  • 47. Working with truth tables Example: Let us demonstrate for which combination of truth values of p and q is it is correct to state: “p and q are equivalent (p≡q)”. Thus, we want to show that: (if p, then q) and (if q, then p) p q p q (p 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 Definition of an equality This proves that: (p≡q)≡((p⊃q)·(q⊃p))
  • 48. When is a rule of inference valid? It is always true (for every combination of truth values of the elementary propositions p, q, etc.) that the conclusion is an implication of (follows logically from) the conjunction of the premises.
  • 49. Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic To formulate a correct wff, you need only five words:
  • 50. Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic To formulate a correct wff, you need only five words: all! no! some! is ! not
  • 51. Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic There are only eight (8) forms of wffs:
  • 52. Formulating wffs in syllogistic logic There are only eight (8) forms of wffs: all A is B All swans are white! no A is B There are no white swans! some A is B Some swans are white! some A is not B Some swans are not white! x is B This swan is white! x is not B This swan is not white! x is y This is the only white swan! x is not y This is not the white swan Any sentence can be translated into a wff of one of these forms
  • 53. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test The star test consist of three steps:
  • 54. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test The star test consist of three steps: Step 1: Find the “distributed letters” A letter is distributed if it occurs just after “all” or anywhere after “no” or “not”
  • 55. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test The star test consist of three steps: Step 1: Find the “distributed letters” A letter is distributed if it occurs just after “all” or anywhere after “no” or “not” all A is B! no A is B! x is A! x is not y Underline the distributed letters
  • 56. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: !
  • 57. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: Star premises letters which are distributed and conclusion letters which are not distributed
  • 58. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: Star premises letters which are distributed and conclusion letters which are not distributed all A is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C is B
  • 59. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 2: Star premises letters which are distributed and conclusion letters which are not distributed all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B*
  • 60. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3:! ! !
  • 61. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side
  • 62. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B*
  • 63. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B* Each capital letter is starred exactly once
  • 64. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B* Each capital letter is starred exactly once There is exactly one star at the right hand side (see the B)
  • 65. Testing whether a syllogism is valid: The star test Step 3: Decide. A syllogism is valid if and only if every capital letter is starred exactly once.! &! if there is exactly one star on the right hand side all A* is B! some C is A! -----------------! some C* is B* Each capital letter is starred exactly once There is exactly one star at the right hand side (see the B) Thus, this syllogism is valid.
  • 66. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum
  • 67. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E is R! ! ! E R
  • 68. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E is R! g is E ! ! E Rg
  • 69. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E is R! g is E ----------! g is R E Rg
  • 70. Example:A valid explanation Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E* is R! g is E ----------! g is R* E RThis is valid g
  • 71. Some things to note about the material in week 3 Check the differences between sound and valid
  • 72. Week 4: How to criticize a theory
  • 73. To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 74. To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 75. To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 76. To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! Does the theory contain statements that contradict each other?! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 77. To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! Does the theory contain statements that contradict each other?! ! Is it reasonably possible to operationalize the concepts about which the theory generates predictions (empirical content)! ! ! !
  • 78. To criticize a theory: Critically examine whether a theory (or, the explanations a theory can generate) meet the adequacy conditions. Think of:! ! Clarity of concepts (definitions)! ! Validity of arguments in the theory! ! Does the theory contain statements that contradict each other?! ! Is it reasonably possible to operationalize the concepts about which the theory generates predictions (empirical content)! ! Something to note:! ! What to do if a theory is wrong? (see examples in weeks 4 and 5)
  • 79. All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G) S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications
  • 80. S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
  • 81. S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
  • 82. S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
  • 83. S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 4 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
  • 84. S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 4 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications 4 (3) has more empirical content than 2 (1)! All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
  • 85. S=df. Everybody with at least a Doctor’s degree in Sociology S=df. Everybody with a university degree in Sociology G=df. Everybody who can interpret a regression G=df. Everybody who can explain what a regression is 1 2 4 3 Theories should be as informative as possible- Comparing empirical content of implications 4 (3) has more empirical content than 2 (1)! 4 (2) has more empirical content than 3 (1) All sociologists (S) are good statisticians (G). (S⊃G)
  • 86. Week 5: Explaining social phenomena based on theories about individual behavior
  • 87. A valid macro-explanation: Our example. Political events which demonstrate the weakness of a certain political system (E) trigger revolutions in states where this system is implemented (R) In GDR 1989 (g), the political events demonstrated the weakness of the ruling political system (E) In GDR 1989 (g), a revolution was triggered (R) General law Assumption to apply law to specific conditions Explanandum all E* is R! g is E ----------! g is R* E RgThis is valid
  • 88. Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 89. Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 90. Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! ! ! ! ! !
  • 91. Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! Explicate what sort of political events have effects! ! ! ! !
  • 92. Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! Explicate what sort of political events have effects! Explain why the macro-law appears to be false in some settings! ! ! !
  • 93. Why macro-explanations are not enough? In the lecture on explaining collective phenomena based on assumptions about individual behavior, we learned that micro-level explanations have the potential to provide information that might be overlooked if only macro-explanations are considered:! ! A micro-level explanation will serve three purposes:! Explain why there is a macro-level relationship! Explicate what sort of political events have effects! Explain why the macro-law appears to be false in some settings! ! Example: After the financial crises, Greece and Island experienced critical political crises. However, there was no revolution in European countries. This suggests that the macro-law holds only under certain conditions.
  • 97. A structural-individualistic explanation Macro! level Individual! level Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest We have added three new assumptions to the explanation! Each new assumption needs to be explained and for each we need to check whether all conditions of adequacy are met
  • 98. Main elements of an individualistic explanation(i.e., Coleman, Lindenberg) Independent! Macro-variable Dependent! Macro-variable Input individual choice:! Choice options! Information! Costs and benefits... Output: ! Individual choice Explanandum: ! Macro relationship Theory ! of action Bridge ! assumptions Transformation ! assumptions
  • 99. Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country General law
  • 100. Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country General law Auxiliary assumption Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
  • 101. Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too General law Auxiliary assumption Explanandum Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
  • 102. Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too General law Auxiliary assumption Explanandum Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Why do we expect this? Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
  • 103. Step 1: Explain the macro-to-micro relationship People who perceive a political change in a similar country, infer that the same is possible in their home country Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too General law Auxiliary assumption Explanandum Many people in GDR perceived changes in similar countries Why do we expect this? This law could be derived from another general theory: Heider’s Balance theory Changes happen My country Other country This is perceivedInferred Similar + + + Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
  • 104. Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) all P is I! ! ! E I P
  • 105. Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) Many people in GDR (E) perceived changes in similar countries (P) all P is I! some E is P ------------------! E I P
  • 106. Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) Many people in GDR (E) perceived changes in similar countries (P) Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I) all P is I! some E is P ------------------! some E is I E I x P
  • 107. Is the argument valid? People who perceive a political change in a similar country (P), infer that the same is possible in the home country (I) Many people in GDR (E) perceived changes in similar countries (P) Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I) all P* is I! some E is P ------------------! some E*is I* This is valid E I x P
  • 108. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 109. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 110. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 111. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 112. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 113. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 114. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! Thus, one would expect that people who consider the Chinese system as similar and were informed about unsuccessful protests (s·~c) would not consider change possible in GDR (~p).! ! ! ! !
  • 115. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! Thus, one would expect that people who consider the Chinese system as similar and were informed about unsuccessful protests (s·~c) would not consider change possible in GDR (~p).! ! General problem: There have been very few empirical studies in GDR. Might be difficult to gather data but not impossible).! !
  • 116. How could one test the macro-to- micro relationship? Test 1: Measure three variables! Did people perceived other countries as similar (s)?! Were people informed about changes (c) (consider that media was not free)?! Did people think that same dynamics were possible (p)?! Theory would be refuted if there was not a correlation between (s·c) and p! ! Test 2: Similar test as test 1, but also measure perceptions concerning China (in China, protests were not successful)! Thus, one would expect that people who consider the Chinese system as similar and were informed about unsuccessful protests (s·~c) would not consider change possible in GDR (~p).! ! General problem: There have been very few empirical studies in GDR. Might be difficult to gather data but not impossible).! However, the law is general. ! Thus, it can be falsified also in alternative settings (Arab countries, experiments)
  • 117. Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
  • 118. Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest General law Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
  • 119. Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
  • 120. Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest Many people in GDR participated in political protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Explanandum Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
  • 121. Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest Many people in GDR participated in political protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Explanandum Why do we expect this? Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
  • 122. Step 2: Explain the theory of action Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible, then they will participate in protest Many people in GDR participated in political protest General law Explanandum of step 1 Explanandum Why do we expect this? This follows from the Theory of rational action! Individuals have preferences (i.e., dissatisfaction) and perceive restrictions (chances of success)! They choose the action alternative (protest vs. no protest) that maximizes their utility Many people in GDR inferred that political change is possible in GDR too Already in 1954, ! there have been protests
  • 123. Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) all I is O! ! ! E O I
  • 124. Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) all I is O! some E is I ------------------! E O x I Many people in GDR (E) inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I)
  • 125. Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) Many people in GDR (E) participated in political protest (O) all I is O! some E is I ------------------! some E is O E O x I Many people in GDR (E) inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I)
  • 126. Is the argument valid? If dissatisfied citizens expect that political change is possible (I), then they will participate in protest (O) Many people in GDR (E) participated in political protest (O) all I* is O! some E is I ------------------! some E*is O* This is valid E O x I Many people in GDR (E) inferred that political change is possible in GDR too (I)
  • 127. Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest
  • 128. Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign General law
  • 129. Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
  • 130. Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign The GDR regime resigned General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption Explanandum After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
  • 131. Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign The GDR regime resigned General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption Explanandum Why do we expect this? After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
  • 132. Step 3: Explain the micro-to-macro relationship Political events Revolution Perception of increased chances of success Participation in protest If a regime realizes that it lost control and power, then it will resign The GDR regime resigned General law Explanandum of step 2, plus aux. assumption Explanandum Why do we expect this? This follows from the Theory of rational action! the regime might have realized that it had lost the possibility to regain power. The rational thing to do was to give up! This will be very difficult to test. Nevertheless, the law has empirical content After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime realized that it lost control and power
  • 133. Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) all L is S! ! ! L S
  • 134. Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) all L is S! h is L ------------------! After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) realized that it lost control and power (L) L Sh
  • 135. Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) resigned (S) all L is S! h is L ------------------! h is S After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) realized that it lost control and power (L) L Sh
  • 136. Is the argument valid? If a regime realized that it lost control and power (L), then it will resign (S) After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) resigned (S) all L* is S! h is L ------------------! h is S* This is valid After the unstopped protests in Leipzig, the GDR regime (h) realized that it lost control and power (L) L Sh
  • 137. We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
  • 138. We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
  • 139. We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
  • 140. We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! Conditions:! ! ! ! ! ! Summary
  • 141. We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! Conditions:! People perceive changes in similar countries! People infer from this perception that political change is possible! Regime realizes that it lost control and power! ! ! Summary
  • 142. We have provided a valid explanation of the relationship between two macro- level variables, using individual-level variables! ! In this process, we have added many new assumptions. The disadvantage is that the theory becomes much more complex! ! On the other hand, the elaborated micro-theory points to many new conditions of political revolutions. This might help explain why there are no revolutions in many countries or why socialism could prevail for so long even though people had been very dissatisfied! ! Conditions:! People perceive changes in similar countries! People infer from this perception that political change is possible! Regime realizes that it lost control and power! ! We might now develop hypotheses about the conditions under which the assumptions do not hold Summary
  • 143. Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
  • 144. Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
  • 145. Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! West German TV! Eastern German secret service! Speeches of intellectuals at demonstration! Newly founded newspapers in GDR! Expert interviews (i.e., study by Opp and Gern)! Retrospective interview methods! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
  • 146. Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! West German TV! Eastern German secret service! Speeches of intellectuals at demonstration! Newly founded newspapers in GDR! Expert interviews (i.e., study by Opp and Gern)! Retrospective interview methods! ! Our explanation of the revolution in GDR is based in general statements. This makes it possible to apply the general theory also to other settings (i.e., Arab countries, gay movement, experimental research)! ! ! ! How to further test the theory?
  • 147. Unfortunately, it is difficult to gather data about an event that happened 20 years ago. In addition, GDR was a totalitarian state, what made it difficult for i.e., journalists to interview people! ! Nevertheless, there are many sources of information! West German TV! Eastern German secret service! Speeches of intellectuals at demonstration! Newly founded newspapers in GDR! Expert interviews (i.e., study by Opp and Gern)! Retrospective interview methods! ! Our explanation of the revolution in GDR is based in general statements. This makes it possible to apply the general theory also to other settings (i.e., Arab countries, gay movement, experimental research)! ! Applying the theory to other settings allows us to test our explanation of the revolution in GDR. How to further test the theory?
  • 148. Week 6: Applying theory to generate policy advice
  • 149. What are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! The most important criterion is that you have a valid reasoning: ! ! You have an adequate explanation (according to the adequacy conditions) of how the expected effects of the proposed policy logically follow from an explicitly formulated theory (law + condition) Summary (1)
  • 150. Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain! ! Step 2: Develop valid explanations for these phenomena! ! Step 3: Derive from the theory that you use to explain the phenomena, why the proposed policy advice should have the proposed effects (valid reasoning) Summary (2)
  • 151. Learn what are the problems of applying theories to real life problems! ! The most important problem is that you overlook implicit ceteris paribus assumptions in your reasoning that turn out to not be true! ! One way to address this problem is that you try to develop deeper explanations that specify under which conditions certain premises apply and when they do not apply Summary (3)
  • 153. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
  • 154. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
  • 155. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
  • 156. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
  • 157. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! ! ! ! ! ! Rules
  • 158. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! ! ! ! Rules
  • 159. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! You need to have 55% of the maximum number of points to pass (60%)! ! ! Rules
  • 160. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! You need to have 55% of the maximum number of points to pass (60%)! Everything below 6 is failed! ! Rules
  • 161. Questions will be formulated in English. You can still answer in Dutch! No additional material is allowed! Exam consists of essay questions, possibly some multiple choice questions, and several technical questions where you will have to demonstrate something using logical tools! Read questions carefully! Weight of the questions will be given. Focus on important questions! Do not panic. The exam is designed in such a way that one can get grade 10. Hence, there must be a few very difficult questions.! You need to have 55% of the maximum number of points to pass (60%)! Everything below 6 is failed! ! Good luck! Rules
  • 162. The test exam is in Nestor