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Question 11. The Excel file Closing Stock Prices provides data
for four stocks over a one-month period.a. Develop spreadsheet
models for forecasting each of the stock prices using single
moving average and single exponential smoothing.b. Using
MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of
moving average periods and best smoothing constant for
exponential smoothing.
1 - Closing Stock PricesClosing Stock
PricesDateIBMINTCCSCOGEDJ
Industrials9/3/10127.5818.4321.0415.39210447.939/7/10125.95
18.1220.5815.4410340.699/8/10126.0817.920.6415.710387.019/
9/10126.361820.6115.9110415.249/10/10127.9917.9720.6215.9
810462.779/13/10129.6118.55721.2616.2510544.139/14/10128.
8518.7421.4516.1610526.499/15/10129.4318.7221.5916.341057
2.739/16/10129.6718.9721.9316.2310594.839/17/10130.1918.81
21.86316.2910607.859/20/10131.7918.9321.7516.5510753.629/
21/10131.9819.1421.6416.5210761.039/22/10132.5719.0121.67
16.510739.319/23/10131.6718.9821.5316.1410662.429/24/1013
4.1119.42322.0916.6610860.269/27/10134.6519.23522.1116.43
10812.049/28/10134.8919.50521.86316.4410858.149/29/10135.
4819.2421.8716.3610835.289/30/10134.1419.221.916.2510788.
0510/1/10135.6419.3221.9116.3610829.68
Question 33. For the data in the Excel file Ohio Prison
Population do the following:a. Develop spreadsheet models
forecasting both male and female populations using single
moving average and single exponential smoothing.b. Using
MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of
moving average periods and best smoothing constant for
exponential smoothing.
3 - Ohio Prison PopulationOhio Prison Population
DataMaleMaleFemaleFemaleTotalTotalYearIntakePopulationInt
akePopulationIntakePopulation197246778846236275491391211
97346358049253271488883201974553874493672685905771719
75701489784423487456932619766859109854934367352114211
97763171208662754269441262819785993122695585776551128
46197968491276858358274321335019807698127626315988329
13360198190461255779258198381313819829530140719197251
04491479619839293162729178751021017147198488551679578
09719635177661985913217382868969100001835119869436194
16100211231043820539198798712098110711194109422217519
88111702265912961284124662394319891467324373183314761
65062584919901542328346198619541740930300199117450296
05219618961964631501199218209331892385225720594354461
99317460356272374236419834379911994165463771523462538
19198402531995173953906525202544199154160919961675341
59524312743191844433819971558943183201127791760045962
19981607644997217728111825347808199916122452852203288
6183254817120001733443813238728061972146619A change in
policy in 1994 no longer counts inmates AWL to court as prison
population
Female Population 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 275
271 268 348 436 542 577 582 598 581 725 875
971 969 1123 1194 1284 1476 1954 1896 2257 2364 2538
2544 2743 2779 2811 2886 2806
Male Population 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 8846
8049 7449 8978 10985 12086 12269 12768
12762 12557 14071 16272 16795 17382
19416 20981 22659 24373 28346 29605
33189 35627 37715 39065 41595 43183
44997 45285 43813
Question 66. Consider the data in the Excel file Consumer Price
Index.a. Use simple linear regression to forecast the data. What
would be the forecast for the next two months?b. Are the data
autocorrelated? Construct first- and second-order autoregressive
models and compare the results to part (a).
6 - Consumer Price IndexConsumer Price Index - All Urban
ConsumersBureau of Labor
StatisticsYearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2000
169.300170.000171.000170.900171.200172.200172.700172.700
173.600173.900174.200174.6002001175.600176.000176.100176
.400177.300177.700177.400177.400178.100177.600177.500177.
4002002177.700178.000178.500179.300179.500179.600180.000
180.500180.800181.200181.500181.8002003182.600183.600183
.900183.200182.900183.100183.700184.500185.100184.900185.
000185.5002004186.300186.700187.100187.400188.200188.900
189.100189.200189.800190.800191.700191.7002005191.600192
.400193.100193.700193.600193.700194.900196.1000198.80019
9.100198.100198.1002006199.200199.400199.700200.600201.4
00201.900202.900203.700202.900201.800202.000203.10020072
03.372204.258205.312205.959206.850207.202207.651207.6712
08.503209.073210.740211.4342008212.225212.703213.543214.
106215.287217.279219.102218.779218.846216.832212.923211.
3392009211.959212.877212.643212.810213.050214.558214.774
215.566215.911216.357216.859217.2242010217.587217.591217
.729217.579217.224216.929217.597218.150
Question 1414. Data in the Excel file Microprocessor Data
shows the demand for one type of chip used in industrial
equipment from a small manufacturer.a. Construct a chart of the
data. What appears to happen when a new chip is introduced?b.
Develop a causal regression model to forecast demand that
includes both time and the introduction of a new chip as
explanatory variables.c. What would the forecast be for the next
month if a new chip is introduced? What would it be if a new
chip is not introduced?
14 - Microprocessor DataMicroprocessor
DataDemandMonthNew Chip
Introduced39491035442061383077524010700517766605482708
78980131039173261008669110721912074561309744140145611
51856416012214170190201811475119014269200148962101535
92201652723017029240
homework 07 – KHALEEFOH, FAHAD – Due: Apr 7 2017,
11:00 pm (Central time) 1
Question 1, chap 8, sect 4.
part 1 of 3 10 points
A 39.0 kg child is in a swing that is attached
to ropes 1.60 m long.
The acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2 .
Find the gravitational potential energy as-
sociated with the child relative to the child’s
lowest position under the following condi-
tions:
a) when the ropes are horizontal.
Answer in units of J.
Question 2, chap 8, sect 4.
part 2 of 3 10 points
b) when the ropes make a 37.0◦ angle with
the vertical.
Answer in units of J.
Question 3, chap 8, sect 4.
part 3 of 3 10 points
c) at the bottom of the circular arc.
Answer in units of J.
Question 4, chap 8, sect 4.
part 1 of 3 10 points
A 54 kg skier is at the top of a slope, as in
the figure. At the initial point A, the skier is
7.08 m vertically above the final point B.
The acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2 .
7.08 m
a) Find the difference in gravitational po-
tential energy associated with the skier at the
points A and B if the zero level for gravita-
tional potential energy is at point B.
Answer in units of J.
Question 5, chap 8, sect 4.
part 2 of 3 10 points
b) Find the difference in potential energy if
the zero level is at point A.
Answer in units of J.
Question 6, chap 8, sect 4.
part 3 of 3 10 points
c) Find the difference in potential energy if
the zero level is midway down the slope, at a
height of 3.54 m.
Answer in units of J.
Question 7, chap 8, sect 4.
part 1 of 3 10 points
A 1.8 kg ball is attached to a ceiling by a
3.94 m long string. The height of the room is
5.18 m .
The acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 .
What is the gravitational potential energy
associated with the ball relative to the ceiling?
Answer in units of J.
Question 8, chap 8, sect 4.
part 2 of 3 10 points
What is its gravitational potential energy
relative to the floor?
Answer in units of J.
Question 9, chap 8, sect 4.
part 3 of 3 10 points
What is its gravitational potential energy
relative to a point at the same elevation as the
ball?
Answer in units of J.
Question 10, chap 8, sect 5.
part 1 of 1 10 points
In an arcade game a 0.09 kg disk is shot
across a frictionless horizontal surface by com-
pressing it against a spring and releasing it.
If the spring has a spring constant of
248 N/m and is compressed from its equi-
librium position by 4 cm, find the speed with
which the disk slides across the surface.
Answer in units of m/s.
homework 07 – KHALEEFOH, FAHAD – Due: Apr 7 2017,
11:00 pm (Central time) 2
Question 11, chap 8, sect 5.
part 1 of 3 10 points
A(n) 139 g arrow is shot straight up into
the air with a speed of 16 m/s. It reaches a
maximum height of 12.0612 m.
The acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 .
Find the initial kinetic energy.
Answer in units of J.
Question 12, chap 8, sect 5.
part 2 of 3 10 points
Find the potential energy at its highest
position.
Answer in units of J.
Question 13, chap 8, sect 5.
part 3 of 3 10 points
Find the magnitude of the energy lost due
to air resistance.
Answer in units of J.
Question 14, chap 8, sect 5.
part 1 of 2 10 points
A bead slides without friction around a
loop-the-loop. The bead is released from a
height 24.2 m from the bottom of the loop-
the-loop which has a radius 9 m.
The acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 .
24.2 m
9 m
A
What is its speed at point A ?
Answer in units of m/s.
Question 15, chap 8, sect 5.
part 2 of 2 10 points
How large is the normal force on it at point
A if its mass is 4 g?
Answer in units of N.
Question 16, chap 8, sect 5.
part 1 of 3 10 points
A block starts at rest and slides down a fric-
tionless track (as shown in the figure below).
It leaves the track horizontally, flies through
the air, and subsequently strikes the ground.
The acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2 .
b b b b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
434 g
4
.6
m
2
.3
m
x
9
.8
1
m
/
s2
v
What is the speed v of the ball when it
leaves the track?
Answer in units of m/s.
Question 17, chap 8, sect 5.
part 2 of 3 10 points
What is the horizontal distance x the block
travels in the air?
Answer in units of m.
Question 18, chap 8, sect 5.
part 3 of 3 10 points
What is the speed of the block when it hits
the ground?
Answer in units of m/s.
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Forecasting Stock Prices Using Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing

  • 1. Question 11. The Excel file Closing Stock Prices provides data for four stocks over a one-month period.a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting each of the stock prices using single moving average and single exponential smoothing.b. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of moving average periods and best smoothing constant for exponential smoothing. 1 - Closing Stock PricesClosing Stock PricesDateIBMINTCCSCOGEDJ Industrials9/3/10127.5818.4321.0415.39210447.939/7/10125.95 18.1220.5815.4410340.699/8/10126.0817.920.6415.710387.019/ 9/10126.361820.6115.9110415.249/10/10127.9917.9720.6215.9 810462.779/13/10129.6118.55721.2616.2510544.139/14/10128. 8518.7421.4516.1610526.499/15/10129.4318.7221.5916.341057 2.739/16/10129.6718.9721.9316.2310594.839/17/10130.1918.81 21.86316.2910607.859/20/10131.7918.9321.7516.5510753.629/ 21/10131.9819.1421.6416.5210761.039/22/10132.5719.0121.67 16.510739.319/23/10131.6718.9821.5316.1410662.429/24/1013 4.1119.42322.0916.6610860.269/27/10134.6519.23522.1116.43 10812.049/28/10134.8919.50521.86316.4410858.149/29/10135. 4819.2421.8716.3610835.289/30/10134.1419.221.916.2510788. 0510/1/10135.6419.3221.9116.3610829.68 Question 33. For the data in the Excel file Ohio Prison Population do the following:a. Develop spreadsheet models forecasting both male and female populations using single moving average and single exponential smoothing.b. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of moving average periods and best smoothing constant for exponential smoothing. 3 - Ohio Prison PopulationOhio Prison Population DataMaleMaleFemaleFemaleTotalTotalYearIntakePopulationInt akePopulationIntakePopulation197246778846236275491391211 97346358049253271488883201974553874493672685905771719 75701489784423487456932619766859109854934367352114211
  • 2. 97763171208662754269441262819785993122695585776551128 46197968491276858358274321335019807698127626315988329 13360198190461255779258198381313819829530140719197251 04491479619839293162729178751021017147198488551679578 09719635177661985913217382868969100001835119869436194 16100211231043820539198798712098110711194109422217519 88111702265912961284124662394319891467324373183314761 65062584919901542328346198619541740930300199117450296 05219618961964631501199218209331892385225720594354461 99317460356272374236419834379911994165463771523462538 19198402531995173953906525202544199154160919961675341 59524312743191844433819971558943183201127791760045962 19981607644997217728111825347808199916122452852203288 6183254817120001733443813238728061972146619A change in policy in 1994 no longer counts inmates AWL to court as prison population Female Population 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 275 271 268 348 436 542 577 582 598 581 725 875 971 969 1123 1194 1284 1476 1954 1896 2257 2364 2538 2544 2743 2779 2811 2886 2806 Male Population 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 8846 8049 7449 8978 10985 12086 12269 12768 12762 12557 14071 16272 16795 17382 19416 20981 22659 24373 28346 29605 33189 35627 37715 39065 41595 43183 44997 45285 43813
  • 3. Question 66. Consider the data in the Excel file Consumer Price Index.a. Use simple linear regression to forecast the data. What would be the forecast for the next two months?b. Are the data autocorrelated? Construct first- and second-order autoregressive models and compare the results to part (a). 6 - Consumer Price IndexConsumer Price Index - All Urban ConsumersBureau of Labor StatisticsYearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2000 169.300170.000171.000170.900171.200172.200172.700172.700 173.600173.900174.200174.6002001175.600176.000176.100176 .400177.300177.700177.400177.400178.100177.600177.500177. 4002002177.700178.000178.500179.300179.500179.600180.000 180.500180.800181.200181.500181.8002003182.600183.600183 .900183.200182.900183.100183.700184.500185.100184.900185. 000185.5002004186.300186.700187.100187.400188.200188.900 189.100189.200189.800190.800191.700191.7002005191.600192 .400193.100193.700193.600193.700194.900196.1000198.80019 9.100198.100198.1002006199.200199.400199.700200.600201.4 00201.900202.900203.700202.900201.800202.000203.10020072 03.372204.258205.312205.959206.850207.202207.651207.6712 08.503209.073210.740211.4342008212.225212.703213.543214. 106215.287217.279219.102218.779218.846216.832212.923211. 3392009211.959212.877212.643212.810213.050214.558214.774 215.566215.911216.357216.859217.2242010217.587217.591217 .729217.579217.224216.929217.597218.150 Question 1414. Data in the Excel file Microprocessor Data shows the demand for one type of chip used in industrial equipment from a small manufacturer.a. Construct a chart of the data. What appears to happen when a new chip is introduced?b. Develop a causal regression model to forecast demand that includes both time and the introduction of a new chip as explanatory variables.c. What would the forecast be for the next month if a new chip is introduced? What would it be if a new chip is not introduced?
  • 4. 14 - Microprocessor DataMicroprocessor DataDemandMonthNew Chip Introduced39491035442061383077524010700517766605482708 78980131039173261008669110721912074561309744140145611 51856416012214170190201811475119014269200148962101535 92201652723017029240 homework 07 – KHALEEFOH, FAHAD – Due: Apr 7 2017, 11:00 pm (Central time) 1 Question 1, chap 8, sect 4. part 1 of 3 10 points A 39.0 kg child is in a swing that is attached to ropes 1.60 m long. The acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2 . Find the gravitational potential energy as- sociated with the child relative to the child’s lowest position under the following condi- tions: a) when the ropes are horizontal. Answer in units of J. Question 2, chap 8, sect 4. part 2 of 3 10 points b) when the ropes make a 37.0◦ angle with the vertical. Answer in units of J.
  • 5. Question 3, chap 8, sect 4. part 3 of 3 10 points c) at the bottom of the circular arc. Answer in units of J. Question 4, chap 8, sect 4. part 1 of 3 10 points A 54 kg skier is at the top of a slope, as in the figure. At the initial point A, the skier is 7.08 m vertically above the final point B. The acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2 . 7.08 m a) Find the difference in gravitational po- tential energy associated with the skier at the points A and B if the zero level for gravita- tional potential energy is at point B. Answer in units of J. Question 5, chap 8, sect 4. part 2 of 3 10 points b) Find the difference in potential energy if the zero level is at point A. Answer in units of J. Question 6, chap 8, sect 4. part 3 of 3 10 points
  • 6. c) Find the difference in potential energy if the zero level is midway down the slope, at a height of 3.54 m. Answer in units of J. Question 7, chap 8, sect 4. part 1 of 3 10 points A 1.8 kg ball is attached to a ceiling by a 3.94 m long string. The height of the room is 5.18 m . The acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 . What is the gravitational potential energy associated with the ball relative to the ceiling? Answer in units of J. Question 8, chap 8, sect 4. part 2 of 3 10 points What is its gravitational potential energy relative to the floor? Answer in units of J. Question 9, chap 8, sect 4. part 3 of 3 10 points What is its gravitational potential energy relative to a point at the same elevation as the ball? Answer in units of J. Question 10, chap 8, sect 5.
  • 7. part 1 of 1 10 points In an arcade game a 0.09 kg disk is shot across a frictionless horizontal surface by com- pressing it against a spring and releasing it. If the spring has a spring constant of 248 N/m and is compressed from its equi- librium position by 4 cm, find the speed with which the disk slides across the surface. Answer in units of m/s. homework 07 – KHALEEFOH, FAHAD – Due: Apr 7 2017, 11:00 pm (Central time) 2 Question 11, chap 8, sect 5. part 1 of 3 10 points A(n) 139 g arrow is shot straight up into the air with a speed of 16 m/s. It reaches a maximum height of 12.0612 m. The acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 . Find the initial kinetic energy. Answer in units of J. Question 12, chap 8, sect 5. part 2 of 3 10 points Find the potential energy at its highest position.
  • 8. Answer in units of J. Question 13, chap 8, sect 5. part 3 of 3 10 points Find the magnitude of the energy lost due to air resistance. Answer in units of J. Question 14, chap 8, sect 5. part 1 of 2 10 points A bead slides without friction around a loop-the-loop. The bead is released from a height 24.2 m from the bottom of the loop- the-loop which has a radius 9 m. The acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 . 24.2 m 9 m A What is its speed at point A ? Answer in units of m/s. Question 15, chap 8, sect 5. part 2 of 2 10 points How large is the normal force on it at point A if its mass is 4 g? Answer in units of N.
  • 9. Question 16, chap 8, sect 5. part 1 of 3 10 points A block starts at rest and slides down a fric- tionless track (as shown in the figure below). It leaves the track horizontally, flies through the air, and subsequently strikes the ground. The acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2 . b b b b b b b b b b b b 434 g 4 .6 m 2 .3
  • 10. m x 9 .8 1 m / s2 v What is the speed v of the ball when it leaves the track? Answer in units of m/s. Question 17, chap 8, sect 5. part 2 of 3 10 points What is the horizontal distance x the block travels in the air? Answer in units of m. Question 18, chap 8, sect 5. part 3 of 3 10 points What is the speed of the block when it hits the ground? Answer in units of m/s.