Bullion Market Dec 2013 & Jan 2014 Prediction - INR
Things to look out for in the bullion/gold market in the coming months as we observe major financial, political and economic changes in the emerging economies of Asia.
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Bullion Technical Analysis Dashboard
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A n Te c h n i c a l a p p ro a c h t o t r a d i n g b u l l i o n m a r k e t s
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DEC 2013!
BULLION DASHBOARD!
MAHEK SHAH!
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@MAHEKMSHAH!
âą Active Analytic (India) Pvt Ltd
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2. Table of Contents!
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Bullion Market Overview!
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Bullion Market!
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Gold!
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Why is âGoldâ the âGlobal currencyâ once again?!
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Why a Technical Bullion Solution?!
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Importance of Technical Analysis!
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Necessity or Experiment?!
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Input & Output!
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List of Data Inputs Required:!
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Filtered Data!
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Output data:!
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Technical Charts!
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Short term!
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Long term!
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Formulas Used!
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Moving Averages!
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Exponential Moving Averages!
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Active Analytic (India) Private Limited!
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B u l l i o n Tr a d i n g !
3. Bollinger Bands!
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Crossovers!
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Trend Line & Channels!
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Candlestick patterns!
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Sample Indicators Page!
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Summary of Indicators!
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Indicators ?!
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Active Analytic (India) Private Limited!
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7. Input & Output!
List of Data Inputs Required:!
Data feeds are of two types:!
1.Raw Data!
2. Filtered Data!
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1. Raw data: If one obtains raw data(tick data), necessary ïŹltering of data is required to obtain standard technical
charting data.!
2. Filtered data: Data obtained from standard tools, which refresh every given time interval. This eliminates the laborious process of ïŹltering raw data to suit our needs.!
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Filtered Data!
The ïŹltered data for any time period essentially comprises of :!
a. Open Price of Market!
b. Close price of Market!
c. Highest Price of Market!
d. Lowest Price of Market!
e. Volume traded in the market!
f. Open interest in Market(daily basis)!
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Output data:!
The output data to be calculated from these ïŹltered data is:!
a. Moving Averages (simple) (5,9,14,21,50,100,150,200 being standard moving averages time period)!
b. Moving Averages (Exponential) (5,9,14,21,50,100,150,200 being standard moving averages time period)!
c. Fibonacci Retracements!
d. Volume in each time interval!
e. Supports & Resistances based on the MAâs and EMAâs obtained.!
f. Supports & Resistances obtained from Fibonacci calculations.!
g. Volume Vs Price Change indicators. (Volume is the fuel of market)!
Active Analytic!
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9. Technical Charts!
Short term!
Short term charts:!
a. Moving averages!
b. Volume!
c. Bollinger bands!
d. Crossovers!
e. Tick data!
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Long term!
Long term charts:!
a. Trend lines!
b. Channels!
c. Supports & Resistances (ïŹbonacci)!
d. Swing levels!
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Active Analytic!
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10. Formulas Used!
Moving Averages!
Simple moving averages for various time periods.!
Exponential Moving Averages!
for various time periods. !
Bollinger Bands!
Using standard deviation for various time periods. !
Crossovers!
Noting & alerting the clash of MAâs & EMAâs for various time periods. !
Trend Line & Channels!
Automatic Trend line supports and values for various time periods. !
Candlestick patterns!
for various time periods. !
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Active Analytic!
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11. Sample Indicators Page!
Summary of Indicators!
Technical Indicator
Suggesting
Supports
Resistances
Basic Indicators
Volume
Low, shows weakness in the commodity compared to
the avg. equity volumes
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Momentum
Directional but weak
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Money Flow Index
Dipping recently, signs of losing sheen in the market
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MACD
Has turned down sharply from a very long stable
phase, showing signs of temporary market direction
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SSTO (Slow Stochastic)
Has turned down, following MACD pattern
religiously
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Bollinger Width
Should increase drastically, the recent candle stick has
opened below the bollinger band suggesting massive
change in trendâŠ
Classic Indicators
-2500
+1000
Bollinger Bands
Tight, but will spread rapidly due to recent eventsâŠ
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Fibonacci Retracements!
(Long term)
Market has scaled lower and is at 76.4% retracement
levels of short term(3 months) range,
29497!
28080!
(76.4%)
30400,!
31080
30644
Chart Pattern
Candle Stick (Daily Cart)!
Opens with a massive gap, next few weeks (dec+jan
mid) should stay in this range, then continue southâŠ
29340
30480
Bear/Downward Trend
Observed on long term chart, could go back to April
2013 lows
25600
30820
Indicators ?!
While one has to become familiar with charting tools to understand what the indicators are indicating, a textual inference of the indicators becomes much easier to understand.!
Supports - Resistances
Long
term
Fibonacci
Projections
26340
22078
23495
25788
28080
29300*
30380
Medium Fibonacci
Term
Projections
Support
27820
30600
29280
28480
Resistance
28080
29497
30200**
31790
** Current price (adjusted spot)
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