Why Japan? Tokyo Real Estate Market in a Nutshell!
Japan Market Update
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Manabu Suzuki
March 15, 2023
Cheap Yen, Steady market and BARGAIN opportunities
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Japan is just like anywhere in the World.
We enbrace “new normal“ post-COVID days.
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Dri/
People are back in
works in Tokyo CBD
from teleworks
People start travelling
and drinking. Regained
pre-COVID activity level.
In 2023, Japan is expected highest growth
in G7 countries, first time in 30 years.
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Japan 1.8%
Canada 1.5%
USA 1.4%
France 0.7%
Italy 0.6%
Germany 0.1% UK minus 0.6%
In 2022, Japan enbraces lowest inflation rate
in G7 countries.
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Japan 3.0%
France 5.5%
Canada 6.9%
USA 8.2%
Italy 8.9%
Germany 10.0% UK 10.1%
Japan still manages exceptionary low
interest rate in G7 countries
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Japan 0.50%
Germany 2.37%
France 2.86%
Canada 3.17%
UK 3.56%
USA 3.75% Italy 4.27%
Low interest rate means Cheap Yen
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100 JPY equates
US 74 cents
Euro 70 cents
Pounds 62 cents
Canada 1.0 dollar
Aussie 1.1 dollar
It was approx 90 US cents
a year ago, before FRB
raises US interest rate.
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Why asset funds flock in Tokyo market?
In the eye of institutional investers and fund managers, Tokyo’s
property market is considered ‘goldilocks‘, in short-mid term.
1) Modest inflation
2) Low interest
3) Cheap yen
4) Modest rental return
5) Modest capital appreciation
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Tokyo property is in long-term upward trend
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Before 1990 Japanese economic miracle
1990 - 2010 Sluggish ‘Lost two decades‘
After 2010 Picks up again (only Stock market and Tokyo property)
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Tokyo is exceptional in Japan
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Tokyo is the only Japanese city that exceeds 1991peak
Tokyo 38.5M/㎡(1991)→12.9M/㎡(1997)→40.1M/㎡(2016)
Osaka 35.0M/㎡(1991)→4.6M/㎡(2004)→13.8M(2016) @39%
Nagoya 28.0M/㎡(1991)→4.0M/㎡(2004))→9.3M/㎡(2016) @33%
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Tokyo property gains during COVID-19
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During 2020 (COVID) Tokyo new apartment price is up
・Tokyo average 72.8M→77.1M(5.8%↑) Per sqft $933
・Tokyo uptown 86.2M→95.9%(11.2%↑) Per sqft $1148
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Tokyo’s safe haven : 10 km radius from CBD
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Tokyo version of London’s zone 1/2/3 is “inside 8th ring road
and Arakawa river” (roughly 10 km from the Center), where
global investor buys and property value keep increases.
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Investment recommendations
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Savvy investors looks into ‘low per sqft‘ priced apartments
Buy cheap and enjoy capital appreciation. It is relatively
common for built year 1980s - early 2000s.
My expectation is... 50% of newly built apartments.
- $465 per sqft or lower for Tokyo downtown
- $574 per sqft or lower for Tokyo uptown
- $700 per sqft or lower for Tokyo prime location
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1)Asakusa apartment - Tokyo downtown
Built year1983
3 min walk from station
$201,400 (26.99M JPY)
Floor area 540 sqft
NOI 4.02%
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2)Chiyoda apartment - Tokyo Prime Location
Built year 1984
2 min walk from station
$259,700 (34.80M JPY)
Floor area 433 sqft
NOI 3.90%
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