Gail Krumenauer, an economist with the Oregon Workforce and Economic Research Division present new labor market information to Marylhurst University students and alumni at a Workforce 21 event on February 1, 2011.

1. Preparing for Workforce Success in Oregon’s Current Economic Climate Presented by: Gail Krumenauer February 1, 2011

2. Overview: Preparing for Workforce Success Knowing where we are: still in a difficult economic climate An educated guess of where we’re going: Short-term forecasts and expectations Occupational projections 2008-2018, and where we expect growth Factors that enhance competitiveness in the labor market Useful tools along the way:resources at QualityInfo.org

3. The Recession is Over? Defining A Recession To a Household or Individual Employment and Income Personal and Community Across the U.S. Economy Decline or Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

4. Visually, you would expect a recovery period to look about exactly opposite of this.

5. Nationally we see growth in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

6. Portland at the lower-end of Metro area recovery Source: Brookings Institute

7. We have seen some positive employment growth in recent months…

8. …but the effects of recession will last for years.

9. Where We’re Heading: Short- and Long-term Employment Growth

10. Vacancies: Fall 2010 Survey ResultsTotal vacancies statewide = 30,652

11. Over half of vacancies 60+ days in professional and business services or health care

12. Help-Wanted OnLine Ads Rebounding

13. Future Hiring: One-third of employers expect to hire, mostly for turnover openings

14. For 2011: Job Growth Projected in Most Industries

15. 2011 Hiring Forecast* in a Variety of Occupations *Employment Department estimates based on OEA forecast.

16. Long-term Projections More than 430,000 openings from 2008 to 2018 to replace current workers as they … change occupations early in their careers, or retire – baby boomers are nearing retirement Add to this the more than 160,000 openings due to economic growth, and we expect … about 600,000 total occupational openings* *This doesn’t include job openings due to people changing jobs but not their occupations.

17. What do we mean by “total job openings?” In the context of these projections, we mean: Growth openings – net gains from more firms being created or growing that firms going out of business or declining PLUS Replacement openings – caused by individuals permanently leaving occupations due to retirement, death, disability, or occupational transfer. In addition to the above, there are many – perhaps a million each year – turnover openings. These create opportunities for individuals and headaches for businesses, but do not represent “need” in terms of education/workforce planning.

18. Services industries will add many jobs, especially health care services

19. Manufacturing industries are expected to see the greatest losses

20. Projected job growth also varies by region

21. All occupational groups are projected to add jobs… Important Notes Relatively low-wage occupations add the most jobs. Professional and health care significantly contribute to high-wage job growth.

22. …and many projected openings will be high wage…

23. …but pay varies widely by occupational group.

24. Service and administrative support openings no longer top the list, once we focus only on high-wage, high-demand jobs.

25. “Usual Suspects” List of Occupations

26. Factors that Enhance Competitiveness for Job Openings

27. Education Pays!

28. Higher education also associated with lower unemployment rates.

29. Postsecondary training will only continue to be increasingly more important.

30. Two-thirds of job openings in high-demand occupations paying at least $50,000 per year require some postsecondary training … * Due to growth and replacement.

31. … and 95%of the “above $50,000” high-demand jobs desire post-secondary training if you want to be competitive. * Due to growth and replacement.

32. We’ve updated Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations lists. The statewide list… … includes 222 occupations (out of more than 700 total) … accounts for over 230,000 of the 600,000 projected total openings between 2008 and 2018 … includes occupations that pay at least $15.97 median hourly wages

33. Need skills that employers want, in addition to education requirements.

34. The ability to work across generations is essential Gen Y Gen X vs. Boomers

35. Same Workplace, Different Perspectives Gen Y Boomers Gen X WHY do I need to learn this? Tell me HOW to do it School and Training Tell me WHAT to do Defining Issues Watergate, Iran (Contra and Hostages) JFK Assassination, Civil Rights Sept. 11, 2001, “Great Recession” Masters Comfortable Challenged Technology DEMAND Accept Dislike Change

36. Resources Available at QualityInfo.org

37. Occupational Information Center Detailed info on more than 700 occupations! Current job openings Employment projections Wages Industries of employment Training providers

38. Educational Information Center Program reports with training in your area! Institutions Number of Graduates Relevant Occupations Employment Projections

39. High-Wage, High-Demand jobs on the Web To view all the High-Wage, High-Demand, and High-Skill jobs: Go to www.QualityInfo.org Click On Occupation Explorer under Tools At the bottom of the page, click on High Demand, High Skill, High Wage Occupations

40. The Take Home Messages The effects of “The Great Recession” (2007-2009) will continue to impact the workforce for years. Vacancies and hiring are occurring! We expect modest employment growth through 2011, and roughly 9 percent statewide between 2008 and 2018. Even those occupations that aren’t growing will need new workers, to replace those who leave. Replacement openings will outnumber growth openings by roughly 2:1. The majority of high-wage and high-demand jobs require postsecondary education, especially in this competitive job market

41. For the latest Workforce & Economic Research news:www.QualityInfo.orgwww.OregonEmployment.Blogspot.comwww.twitter.com/OrEmployment Gail Krumenauer, Economist Oregon Employment Department Gail.K.Krumenauer@state.or.us (503) 947-1274