Dr. Joe Turek, Dean of the School of Business and Economics at Lynchburg College, gave this presentation on the economic outlook of the region at the Economic Outlook Conference at LC on 2/1/2012.

1. The Regional Economy
in Perspective
Dr. Joe Turek, Dean
School of Business and Economics
Lynchburg College
February 1, 2012
turek@lynchburg.edu

2. Distribution of Regional
Employment, November 2011
Amherst,
15,256, 12.7%
Appomattox,
6,959, 5.8%
Bedford
County,
34,638, 28.9%
Campbell,
26,639, 22.2%
Bedford City,
2,544, 2.1%
Lynchburg,
33,904, 28.3%

3. Resident % Change (10/10 – 10/11)
Change
(10/10 – 10/11)
Unemployment
Rate
Employment
Labor
Force Employment Unemployment Unemployment
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Amherst 2.8 4.8 -20.8 -1.7 7.7 6.0
Appomattox 3.5 4.8 -12.2 -1.2 8.0 6.8
Bedford County 3.5 4.8 -14.8 -1.2 6.6 5.4
Campbell 3.8 4.8 -10.2 -0.9 6.7 5.8
Bedford City 4.1 4.9 -4.4 -1.2 8.6 7.9
Lynchburg 3.8 4.8 -8.1 -0.9 7.8 6.9
Lynchburg
MSA
3.6 4.8 -12.2 -1.1 7.2 6.1
Virginia 1.6 2.4 -10.7 -0.8 6.5 5.7
US (1000s) 0.0 1.2 -11.7 -1.1 9.3 8.2

4. Metropolitan
Statistical
Areas
% Change (Nov 2010 – Nov 2011)
Change
(Nov 2010 – Nov 11)
Labor Force Employment Unemployment Unemployment
Blacksburg-
Christiansburg-Radford 2.9 4.4 -15.8 -1.3
Charlottesville 5.4 6.2 -8.8 -0.7
Danville 1.1 3.3 -18.1 -2.0
Harrisonburg 2.5 3.4 -11.2 -0.8
Kingsport-Bristol 1.5 3.1 -15.3 -1.5
Lynchburg 3.6 4.8 -12.2 -1.1
Richmond -0.1 0.8 -11.9 -0.9
Roanoke 2.2 3.2 -12.4 -1.0
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-
Newport News 0.7 1.2 -5.5 -0.5
Washington-Arlington-
Alexandria 2.1 2.7 -9.4 -0.6
Winchester 4.5 5.2 -6.0 -0.6

5. 95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
1.10E+08
1.20E+08
1.30E+08
1.40E+08
1.50E+08
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
LYNCHBURG MSA NATION
MSA
Employment
US
Employment
EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE

6. LYNCHBURG MSA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

7. The recession experience: comparing
the Lynchburg MSA and the nation
112000
114000
116000
118000
120000
122000
1.360E+08
1.380E+08
1.400E+08
1.420E+08
1.440E+08
1.460E+08
1.480E+08
2008 2009 2010 2011
LYNCHBURG MSA NATION
MSA
Emploument
US
Employment

8. Same story: different perspective
112000
113000
114000
115000
116000
117000
118000
119000
120000
121000
1.340E+08
1.360E+08
1.380E+08
1.400E+08
1.420E+08
1.440E+08
1.460E+08
1.480E+08
1.500E+08
1.520E+08
2008 2009 2010 2011
LYNCHBURG MSA NATION
MSA
Emploument
US
Employment

9. 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2008 2009 2010 2011
VIRGINIA LYNCHBURG NATION
Unemployment Rates
Dec 2007 – Nov 2011

10. The Lynchburg MSA Labor Market
112000
114000
116000
118000
120000
122000
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010 2011
EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Employment
Unemployment
Rate

11. 122000
123000
124000
125000
126000
127000
128000
129000
130000
2008 2009 2010 2011
MSA Labor Force
The Lynchburg MSA Labor Market

12. Number of Unemployed per
Advertised Job Opening
Nov-10 Oct-11 Nov-11
Amherst County 4.70 3.95 4.42
Appomattox County 4.43 4.71 6.75
Bedford City 113.5 55.5 24.11
Bedford County 4.65 4.20 4.31
Campbell County 7.92 10.18 9.52
Lynchburg City 1.00 0.71 0.77
REGION 2.31 1.72 1.86

13. 0
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MSA Unemployment Rates
Nov. 2011

14. Number of Unemployed per
Advertised Job Opening
Nov-10 Oct-11 Nov-11
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA 2.10 1.33 1.46
Charlottesville MSA 0.94 0.76 0.80
Danville MSA 2.91 2.42 2.84
Harrisonburg MSA 1.88 1.12 1.29
Lynchburg MSA 2.31 1.72 1.86
Richmond MSA 1.51 1.02 1.07
Roanoke MSA 1.70 1.16 1.32
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA 1.73 1.38 1.52
Winchester, VA-WV MSA 2.38 1.57 1.70

15. LYNCHBURG MSA OCCUPATIONS Seekers LYNCHBURG MSA OCCUPATIONS Seekers
Customer Service Representatives 655 First-Line Supervisors of Office/Admin. Support Workers 61
Cashiers 276 Computer Support Specialists 60
Helpers--Production Workers 251 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 59
Office Clerks, General 223 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 59
Construction Laborers 201 Personal and Home Care Aides 57
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 189 Machinists 57
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers 187 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks 56
Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 178 Construction Managers 52
Administrative Services Managers 164 Sales Managers 52
Receptionists and Information Clerks 158 Child Care Workers 50
Construction Carpenters 153 Home Health Aides 50
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 114 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 48
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 114 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing 48
First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers 93 Cooks, Restaurant 47
Electricians 85 Data Entry Keyers 46
Accountants 85 Food Service Managers 43
Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 79 Medical Assistants 40
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping 76 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 40
Welders, Cutters, and Welder Fitters 74 Food Preparation Workers 39
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 72 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, & Repairers 36
Driver/Sales Workers 67 Painters, Construction and Maintenance 36
Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 64 Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers 35
Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics & Installers 62 Chefs and Head Cooks 34
Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 62 Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria 30
OCCUPATIONS RANKED BY NUMBER OF SEEKERS, 12/2/11

16. OCCUPATIONS IN LYNCHBURG MSA
Potential
Candidates
Job
Openings
Potential Candidates
Per Job Opening
Customer Service Representatives 655 54 12.13
Cashiers 276 23 12.00
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 189 21 9.00
Accountants 85 13 6.54
Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 62 13 4.77
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 59 13 4.54
Sales Managers 52 12 4.33
Office Clerks, General 223 11 20.27
Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 178 11 16.18
Machinists 57 10 5.70
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 187 9 20.78
Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers 62 8 7.75
Cooks, Restaurant 47 7 6.71
Electricians 85 6 14.17
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping
Cleaners 76 6 12.67
Personal and Home Care Aides 57 6 9.50
Home Health Aides 50 6 8.33
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 40 6 6.67
Chefs and Head Cooks 34 6 5.67
Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manuf., Technical/Scientific Prod. 26 6 4.33
Supply/Demand Conditions in Occupations w/ at Least 6 Openings, 12/2/11

17. ACCRA Cost of Living Index (2011 Q3)
MSA Composite Grocery Housing Utilities Transport Health Misc
Virginia Beach 104.8 97.3 110.7 108.5 93.9 98.6 105.6
Charlottesville 104.4 94.7 117.3 101.9 96.9 99.0 100.6
Winchester 102.8 102.1 86.6 100.4 103.5 103.2 117.8
Richmond 99.2 103.0 89.3 106.5 102.5 109.0 102.0
Harrisonburg 97.6 95.8 99.7 100.2 92.4 100.0 97.0
Blacksburg 95.0 89.3 90.2 94.7 101.3 99.4 99.2
Staunton 94.8 93.5 94.0 101.2 95.5 97.3 93.4
Lexington 93.5 92.0 93.8 98.4 100.5 90.9 90.7
Roanoke 93.4 90.9 93.8 95.7 93.4 96.9 92.9
Danville 92.2 94.4 83.0 94.0 97.1 96.7 96.8
Lynchburg 92.0 89.7 86.8 104.5 86.0 97.8 94.6

18. 2011:2 Average Weekly
Wage
Rank ACCRA
COL
Index
Rank Real Average
Weekly Wage
Rank
Richmond 862 1 98.1 4 879 1
Charlottesville 803 2 107.6 2 746 4
Virginia Beach 786 3 104.5 1 752 3
Winchester 773 4 105.6 3 732 5
Roanoke 731 5 92.6 9 789 2
Lynchburg 690 6 94.5 7 730 6
Blacksburg 674 7 97.6 5 691 8
Harrisonburg 652 8 95.2 6 685 9
Staunton 651 9 94.1 8 692 7
Danville 606 10 92.5 10 655 10
Martinsville 570 11 87.7 11 650 11
REGIONAL WAGE VARIATIONS

19. Housing Market Conditions
2010:4 – 2011:4
% Change
Median Sales Price
% Change
Sales
Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg -2.3 9.8
Greater Richmond -8.5 9.6
Northern Virginia -0.2 -9.1
Hampton Roads -7.6 12.9
Southside Virginia -1.2 2.4
Southwest Virginia -6.3 9.4
All of Virginia -1.3 1.1

20. Number of Building Permits, prelim.
(annual totals, 2008 through 2011)
% Change Bedford County Campbell Lynchburg
2010 - 2011 -15.8 -28.0 -57.6

21. New Firm Start-ups, 2002-2010
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
LYNCHBURG MSA VIRGINIA

22. New Firm Start-ups in first 6 months,
2002-2010
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
VIRGINIA LYNCHBURG MSA

23. Taxable Retail Sales
2011-3
% Change
2010:3 – 2011:3
% Change
2011:2 – 2011:3
Amherst 55,012,306 -3.6 -1.9
Appomattox 23,208,109 -1.1 -27.6
Bedford County 87,798,953 -22.6 -0.2
Campbell 99,144,748 6.2 -0.8
Bedford City 19,769,548 3.8 -8.5
Lynchburg 280,623,634 0.8 -7.0
REGION 565,557,298 -3.3 -5.7
Virginia 22,668,526,253 2.2 2.3

24. Foreclosures
2011:3 2011:4 % Change
Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg 474 530 11.8
Greater Richmond 2,347 1,721 -26.7
Northern Virginia 5,850 4,258 -27.2
Hampton Roads 3,279 2,402 -26.7
Southside Virginia 241 181 -24.9
Southwest Virginia 81 44 -45.7
All of Virginia 12,668 9,391 -25.9

25. SCORECARD
Employment Growth Relatively high
Cost of Living Low
Real Average Weekly Wage Relatively low
Median Home Sales Price -2.3% (not just Lynchburg)
Home Sales +9.8%
Building Permits Down
New Firm Start-Ups Mixed; most recently, down
Taxable Retail Sales -5.7%
Foreclosures +11.8%