Presentation from a Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies public forum on climate change by David Wolfe, Professor of Horticulture, Cornell University.

1. Farming Success
in a Changing Climate
David W. Wolfe
Cornell University
dww5@cornell.edu
www.hort.cornell.edu/wolfe
www.climatechange.cornell.edu
www.sap43.ucar.edu
www.northeastclimateimpacts.org

2. The Climate Is Always Changing . . .
But Seldom Has The Pace of Change Been This Fast
The New “Plant Hardiness Zone Map”
Source: www.arborday.org

3. It is not just weather instruments telling us the climate is
changing. The living world (plants, insects, birds and other
animals) are responding to change. For example, in the
Northeastern US….
Apples are blooming
8 days earlier than
they were in the
1960s
Grapes are blooming 6
Lilacs are blooming 4
days earlier
days earlier
[Source: Wolfe DW et al. 2005. Internat J Biometeor 49:303-309.]
National Phenology Network: http://www.usanpn.org

4. For farmers, gardeners, urban landscapes . . .
Climate change might allow exploration of new crops and new markets,
but will also bring with it increased weed, disease, and insect pressure,
damaging summer heat stress, and new challenges for water management

5. The NY Finger Lakes wine industry may have already
benefited from warmer winters,. . .
(less vine and root damage
in European wine grapes with less
frequent -12 F winter temps)

6. The NY Finger Lakes wine industry may have already
benefited from warmer winters,. . . BUT
Expect the unexpected:
More freeze damage in a warmer world?
$$ millions of freeze damage to NY vineyards in
2003-04 and 2004-05 due to warm Decembers
and inadequate winter “hardening” of buds and
(less vine and root damage vines.
in European wine grapes with less
frequent -12 F winter temps)

7. More Frequent Summer Heat Stress and Drought
Crop yield and quality Heat stress and livestock

8. Warmer winters in NE = more pest pressure
Many insects benefit: better overwinter
survival; more generations per season; Invasive weeds benefit
northward expansion of range
Flea beetle
Kudzu
Corn earworm

9. Days Below -4 F
(dark orange= potential spread of Kudzu range)
2010-39 2040-69 2070-99
“Business
as usual”
Lower
emissions
Wolfe et al. 2008. Mitgation
Adaptation Strategies Global Change
13:555-575.

10. Plants respond directly to rising CO2;
Plants and soils sequester carbon
Duke Forest
North Carolina

11. Many plant species respond positively to rising CO2,
but not all plants are equally desirable
Poison ivy growth increase at Duke FACE ring = +149%, and more allergenic.
(Mohan et al. 2006. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 103(24): 9086-9089).

12. And high CO2 reduces herbicide efficacy
Ambient CO2 Future CO2
e.g. Ziska et al. Weed Science 2004
(Ziska et al. 2004 Weed Sci 52:584-588; Ziska et al. 1999. Weed Sci 47:608-615.)

13. Water Management Challenges:
a trend for more high rainfall events and flood damage

14. Water Management Challenges:
Summer rainfall does not meet crop water needs (Potential Evapotranspiration,
PET) today, and this will get worse as summers become warmer
summer
water
deficits
Historical data for Rochester, NY

15. Farmers will require new climate-based
decision tools for strategic adaptation.
 Is this “normal” bad weather
or climate change??
 Do I invest in a new
drainage system?...
 Or irrigation system?
 Or both?
 And when?

16. Agriculture Adaptation
On-farm
•Adjust planting dates, crops and varieties
•Develop new strategies for new pests, diseases and
weeds
•Improve irrigation and drainage capacity
•Improve cooling capacity of livestock facilities
Beyond the farm (e.g., university, government agency roles)
•New decision tools to explore costs, risks, benefits, and strategic
timing of adaptation
•Develop new crop and livestock options
•Improved delivery of real-time local weather data
•Enhanced pest monitoring and regional IPM efforts
•Disaster risk management and better crop insurance programs
•Financial assistance for adaptation investments
•Climate change policies that integrate economic, environmental and
equity issues

17. Equity Issues:
Will small family farms have the capital and
strategic information to adapt?

18. Renewable Energy
on the Farm

19. The Energy-Waste Management Challenge:
Re-coupling animal and crop production systems
to re-cycle nitrogen, carbon, energy

20. Cow
Power
Anaerobic Digester

21. Contributions of U.S. Agricultural Emissions from
Three Greenhouse Gases (CO2 equivalent basis)
Agriculture accounts for about 7% of total US GHG emissions
(US EPA 2009).

22. Farm Mitigation
Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Sequester Soil Carbon
 Improve farm energy efficiency
 Produce and/or use renewable energy sources, including
biofuel crops
 Improve N fertilizer and manure management
 Improve soil organic matter/C management
 Reduce tillage
 Winter cover cropping
 Use of composts, manure, other OM amendments
 Many mitigation options are win-win:
 Increase farmer profits
 A new source of revenues if carbon markets develop
 Environmental, food safety, and sustainability co-benefits

23. New approaches to N management:
Linking models with weather forecasts
Cornell’s “Adapt-N” web-based nitrogen
management system
(http://adapt-n.eas.cornell.edu)

24. COMET-Farm: On-line tool for estimating
emissions reductions and carbon
sequestration at farm-scale

25. New low-cost approaches to soil C measurement:
“On-the-go” Visible Near Infrared (VNIR) methodology

26. An Uncertain Climate and Energy Future:
Being Prepared Makes Good Business Sense
David Wolfe, dww5@cornell.edu
www.climatechange.cornell.edu
• Taking advantage of changing market opportunities
• Strategic decisions regarding capital investments, such as:
– New irrigation and drainage systems
– Livestock facilities with adequate cooling capacity
– Planting appropriate perennial fruit crop varieties
• Anticipating new weed, disease, insect pests
• Avoiding unintended consequences, such as:
– Increased chemical loads to waterways
– Undesirable land use change and degradation
• Promoting policies that support farmer needs for adaptation and
mitigation
• Taking advantage of energy policy incentive programs or emerging
carbon markets
• Protecting national interests: ag economy, food prices, food security

27. Acknowledgements
Collaborators Websites:
Climate Science www.climatechange.cornell.edu
Art Degaetano, Lee Tryhorn, Radley www.northeastclimateimpacts.org
Horton, Katharine Hayhoe, Cynthia www.sap43.ucar.edu
Rosenzweig www.ipcc.ch
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Jonathan Comstock, Keith Paustian, Steve
Ogle, Peter Woodbury, Zia Ahmed, Alan
Lakso, Ian Merwin, Curt Petzoldt , Larry
Chase, Susan Riha, Rebecca
Schneider, Holly Menninger, David
Weinstein, Vern Grubinger,