Climate changes in recent history

1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN
RECENT HISTORY
Nathalie Nicole Brandes
Professor of Geoscience
Lonestar College- Montgomery
and
University of Wisconsin

2. EARTH IS 4.567 Ga

3. EARTH IS 4.567 Ga

4. EARTH IS 4.567 Ga

5. EARTH IS 4.567 Ga

6. CLIMATE PROXIES
• Rock types
• Fossils (flora and
fauna types and
abundance, tree
rings, pollen, etc.)
• δ18O
• Alkenones from
diatoms
(Bradley, 1999)
• Mg/Ca in forams
• Sr/Ca in corals
• Gas content in ice
core air bubbles
• Dust and ice-rafted
debris
• speleothems

7. THE TEMPERATURE RECORD
(Marshak, 2008)

8. CENOZOIC TEMPERATURE RECORD
(Zachos et al., 2008)

9. CLIMATE SINCE THE EEMIAN
INTERGLACIAL
(Burroughs, 2004; Dansgaard et al., 1993)

10. Remember: Climate Changes
• Over the past 500,000 years temperature
deviated from the long-term average 7.5°C
four times, and deviated from this average
4° C over 20 times (Oppo, 1998; Raymo,
1998; Sorokhtin et al., 2007)
• Today’s warming trend is about 0.56° C
over the past century

11. • Carbon dioxide has varied greatly in the past
and been as high as 7200ppm (Retallack, 2009).

12. So Let’s Look at Climate and
Human History
• Just remember, all the dates provided are approximate
ages and minute details of all the climate changes are
not covered.
• Also remember, history is shaped by many interacting
factors, climate is but one of those factors.
• This is a brief look at climate since the last glacial
maximum. Emphasis on brief. You could study this topic
for a lifetime and not learn everything
• Unless otherwise stated, data on Holocene events and temperatures comes
from: Calvo et al., 2002; Ciais et al., 1992; Cronin et al., 2003; Dahl-Jensen
et al., 1998; deMenocal et al., 2000; Farmer et al., 2005; Gajewski, 1988;
Ge et al., 2003; Holmgren et al., 1999; Kalis et al., 2003; Keigwin, 1996;
Kim et al., 2004; Korhala et al., 2000; Loehle, C. 2005; Mangini et al., 2005;
Nyberg et al., 2002; Stott et al., 2004; Tan et al., 2003; Viau et al., 2006;
Yang et al., 2002

13. ~18,000 years ago:
Last Glacial Maximum
• Average global temperature was about 6
to 7° C cooler than today. (The average
temperature at the equator was about the
same as today, at mid-latitudes the
temperature was about 14° C cooler). In
the Sahara, it was drier than today and the
desert extended about 500 km farther
south than it does today (Cremaschi et al.,
1998).

14. ~14,000 years ago:
Warming
• Temperatures rose to roughly those of
today.

15. ~12,500 years ago:
The Younger Dryas
• Abrupt return to glacial temperatures. This
cooling probably occurred over about a
decade (Alley et al., 1993).

16. ~11,500 years ago:
End of the Younger Dryas
• Beginning of the current interglacial, called
the Holocene.
• Temperatures increased to roughly current
levels within a century. Most of this
warming was concentrated in a single
spurt of warming that lasted less than
fifteen years (Taylor et al, 1997; Adams et
al., in press).

17. ~7000 to 2000 B.C.:
Climatic Optimum
• Average Global Temperature was warmer than
today by 3 to 4° C.
• Sunny and warm summers and mild winters in
Europe, enhanced monsoons in the Sahara
allowed rivers and lakes to exist there,
supporting hunting, cattle herding, and some
agriculture in the region (Holl, 2004).
• Settlement of Mesopotamia, an area which also
experienced warm and wet conditions. In fact,
this is really the time of the rise of agricultural
civilisation worldwide. (Kuper and Kropelin,
2006).

18. ~7000 to 2000 B.C.:
Climatic Optimum

19. Climatic Optimum Continued
• Cooler, more arid phases occurred within this overall
warm time, notably at around 6200 B.C. (Alley et al.,
1997) and 3500 B.C. (Malville et al., 1998; Nicoll, 2004)
• During the 3500 B.C. cooling that Egypt consolidated its
control over the Nile River Valley. Several researchers
(Midan-Reynes, 1992; Adams and Cialowicz, 1997)
suggest that this consolidation of power was in part
because the more difficult climate of the cooler and dryer
times required an organised cultivation, harvest, and
stockpiling of grains.

20. ~600 B.C.:
Cool and wet period
• Cooler and wetter conditions are noted
worldwide (Niggemann, et al., 2003;
Holzhauser, et al., 2005). Very early
Roman writers refer to the Tiber River
freezing around this time period.

21. ~300B.C. to 450 A.D.:
Roman Warming
• Warmer and moister in the North Africa and the
Middle East (Lamb, 1995).
• Ptolemy (Claudius Ptolemaeus) of Alexandria
kept a weather diary for many years that clearly
reflects this wetter climate.
• Passes that are closed during colder climates
were open during this time-- something that
helped allowed Hannibal to march on Rome with
his elephants.

22. ~300B.C. to 450 A.D.:
Roman Warming
(Crumley, 1994)

23. ~450 A.D. to 900 A.D.:
“Dark Ages” Cold Period
(Crumley, 1994)

24. ~450 A.D. to 900 A.D.:
“Dark Ages” Cold Period
• Notably cooler and drier than today.
• Severe drought on the Asian steppes was one of many
factors that influenced the “barbarian invasions.”
• The years 535-536 were extremely cold and dark,
according to primary sources, which refer to the sun
shining without heat or much light. The cause of this
darkness was quite possibly volcanic ash in the
atmosphere (Wohletz, 2000).
• Winter of 859-860 was also extremely cold. The Adriatic
near Venice had ice thick enough to drive wagons
across.
• Also during this cold period, ice could be found on the
Nile and Bosphurus (Lamb, 1995).

25. ~950 to 1300 A.D.:
Medieval Warm Period
• Average global temperature 1 to 2° C
warmer than today.

26. ~950 to 1300 A.D.:
Medieval Warm Period

27. ~950 to 1300 A.D.:
Medieval Warm Period
• Viking expansion
– settlers founded an
agricultural settlement
on Greenland.
– In Norway, barley was
grown as far north as
69 ½ ° latitude.
– Settlement in North
America

28. ~950 to 1300 A.D.:
Medieval Warm Period
• Sometimes referred to as
the High Middle Ages.
• Population growth
• Expanded trading
• Building of many great
cathedrals (Lamb, 1995)

29. ~1300 to 1850:
The Little Ice Age
• Average global temperature is 2 to 4° C colder
than today, as much as 9° C colder than today in
some locations.

30. ~1300 to 1850:
The Little Ice Age
• 1315-1321 were extremely wet years. Grain
didn’t ripen, causing massive famine throughout
Europe.
“Men and women from among the powerful, the
middling, and the lowly, old and young, rich and
poor, perished daily is such numbers that the air
was fetid with the stench.”
-- Gilles de Muisit, Abbot of Saint-Martin de Tournai
(Fagan, 2004; Jordan, 1996; Lamb, 1995)

31. ~1300 to 1850:
The Little Ice Age

32. Black Death and Climate
• Grain was imported from the Middle East to feed the
starving masses, and with the grain came rats. With the
rats came fleas. With the fleas came Yersinia pestis.
Black Plague.
• Yersinia pestis secretes an enzyme called coagulase
that causes blood to clot in the flea’s throat. So the flea
gets very hungry and bites a lot. But because of the clot
in its throat, the flea can’t swallow, so it spits blood back
in the bite wound. And with that blood it spits some
plague bacteria, spreading the disease.
• When the temperature is warmer (over about 25° C), the
blood won’t clot in the flea’s throat and it is harder for the
flea to transmit plague. (Nika, 2005, personal
communication)

33. Progression of Black Death

34. Another Nasty Disease:
St. Anthony’s Fire
• Also known as ergotism
• Caused by the ergot fungus. Ingesting
ergot causes convulsions, hallucinations,
and the gangrenous rotting of limbs.
• Ergot only grows when it is cool and damp
and only a little ergot contaminated grain
can ruin an entire barrel of grain

35. Results of Diseases
• 1/3 to 1/2 of
European population
died
• Minimum of 42 million
people died in Europe
• Estimated 100 million
died total (decreased
global population to
~350 million)

36. Other interesting thoughts on the
Little Ice Age
• Dutch speed skaters
• Growing potatoes in Europe

37. Other interesting thoughts on the
Little Ice Age
• Valley Forge

38. Other interesting thoughts on the
Little Ice Age
• Washington crossing the Delaware

39. Lessons from the Vikings on Greenland
• Settlement failed- most
people went home
• Settlers who stayed
faced starvation,
whereas the Inuit of
the area did just fine

40. Other interesting thoughts on the
Little Ice Age
• Tambora eruption (1815)
– “Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death”
– Increased settlement of the American
midwest
– Frankenstein

41. Other interesting thoughts on the
Little Ice Age
• Increased clan warfare in Scotland

42. ~1850-1880:
Warming trend
• Warming trend began in the 1840s.
• This is an appropriate time to re-visit the potato.
The Irish are known for their potatoes. And their
Potato Famine. During the colder times of the
Little Ice Age, the Irish took to growing a certain
type of potato (I can’t remember the species).
Anyway, this was a great potato to grow in the
cooler climate, but was particularly susceptible
to potato blight (Phytophthora infestans). Potato
blight needs warm, wet conditions to multiply,
which is why the potato famine occurred as the
world left the Little Ice Age

43. ~1880-1900:
slightly cooler temperatures

44. ~1900-1940:
Rapid warming
• Most of the past century’s warming
occurred during this time.

45. ~1940-1980:
Cooling period
• 1972 National Science Board: “Judging from the record
of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high
temperatures should be drawing to an end…leading into
the next ice age.”
• 1975 National Academy of Sciences report: “A serious
worldwide cooling could befall the Earth within the next
100 years.”
• 1975 book by Lowell Ponte: “The Cooling: Has the Next
Ice Age Already Begun? Can We Survive It?” “Global
cooling presents humankind with the most important
social, political, and adaptive challenge we have had to
deal with for 110,000 years. Your stake in the decisions
we make concerning it is of the ultimate importance: the
survival of ourselves, our children, our species.”

46. ~1980-today:
Warming
• We all know the story here, climate has
been warming.
• However, recent data indicates that
temperatures have been slightly cooling
since 1998

47. So what does all this really mean?
• Climate changes all the time and it can
change very rapidly.
• Earth changes. And if we want to survive,
we should be ready to change with it.

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