a quick overview of Vietnam Stock market and economy in 2020 2021 from BIDV securities Company (BSC). Top 3 Research house in Vietnam (AsiaMoney Broker Poll 2019)

1. BSCBIDV securities Company
Vietnam 2020 - 2021
Year of choices
Feb 10th 2020

2. Content list
2020 year of choice
• Investment themes and comparison vs emerging market
• Macro Economy update
• Key takeaway
• Macro ratio
• Stock market update
• Key takeaway
• Fearless forecast
• Sector performance update
• Key takeaway
• Sector rating
2

3. Vietnam & Emerging Market (yoy)
Source: Black Rock Nov 2019
Global Market:
• Slow growth
• Dovish Central Banks
• Longest expansion
Emerging Market:
• China & EM Slowdown
• China debt blow up
• Arabic, Corona
Political risk:
• Trade war (US, China, EU)
• US election 2020/VN election 2021
• Brexit (03/2020)
3

4. Macro Economy
2020 – 2021 Election year4

5. Macro economy Update: Key take away points
Source: BSC, data update Nov 2019
2019: Vietnam reach GDP 7.02% YoY, with lower credit growth, FDI growth
Pros: Total GDP $328 bil - adjusted (rank 41th after + 25.4%); foreign reserve rise to
USD ~79 billion (rank 31th > Denmark ,Sweden, Australia); state budget surplus ~ $ 4
billion, Export +8.1% yoy, import up +7%, net export USD 9.9 billion, USD/VND -0.98%
(yoy),
Cons : State own enterprise restructuring, fiscal deficit, Gov spending slowdown
(62.9% plan, slowest in 4 years), FDI disbursed +6.7%; PMI (51 vs 53.9 last year), FDI
register is going down, and no big project, Credit grow +13% (vs 12.5% 12M2018,
target 14%), average CPI 2019 2.79% compared to 2018, Dec 2019: 5.23% compared to
Dec 2018.
Factors to watch in 2020: Trade war, Covid-19, Monetary policy (FED), China, OPEC, Gov
spending, Exchange rate and interest rate
5

6. Macro economy Update: The Macro
• 2020 forecast: CPI 3.4-3.5% and exchange rate ~ 0% to 0.9% (supported by USD 79 bil foreign
reserve); trade surplus of USD 8.29 bil, export +5.6%, import +6.5% (EVFTA).
• 2020 challenges: FDI grow stagnant (vs 5-year average +10%); Credit growth 12-13% (lower
than last year), interest rate down (0.25-0.5%).
Source: BSC
year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F
GDP(%) 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.8 5.9 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.7 7.08 7.02 6.6-6.8
Population 78.1 79.1 80.0 81.0 81.9 84.1 85.1 86.0 86.2 86.9 87.8 88.8 89.7 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.7 96.9 96.48 98.80
Industry index(%) 14.6 14.8 16.8 16.6 17.1 16.8 16.7 13.9 8.5 15.3 7.3 4.7 5.9 7.6 9.8 8.3 12.5 10.2 8.86 9.0-9.3
Export (bilUSD) 15.0 16.7 20.1 26.5 32.4 39.8 48.6 62.7 57.1 72.2 96.9 115 132.2 150.0 162.4 175.9 211.9 243.5 263.5 278.25
Import(bilUSD) 16.2 19.7 25.3 32.0 36.8 44.9 62.8 80.7 69.9 84.8 107 112 132.0 148.1 165.6 173.3 209.3 236.7 253.5 269.96
Net export (bilUSD) (1.2) (3.0) (5.1) (5.5) (4.3) (5.1) (14.2) (18.0) -12.9 -12.6 (9.8) 2.9 0.1 2.0 (3.2) 2.6 2.6 6.8 9.9 8.29
FDI register (bilUSD) 3.1 3.0 3.2 4.5 6.8 12.0 21.3 21.7 21.5 19.8 14.7 13.0 21.6 20.2 22.8 20.9 30.3 25.57 22.47 20-23
FDI Disburse(bilUSD) 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.3 4.1 8.0 11.5 10.0 11.0 11.0 10.5 11.5 12.4 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 22
M2(%) 25.5 17.6 24.9 29.5 29.7 33.6 46.1 20.3 29.0 33.3 12.1 12.6 4.4 17.7 16.2 18.4 13.7 11.34 12 11-13
Credit growth (%) N/a N/a N/a 42.0 32.0 25.0 53.9 25.4 37.5 31.2 12.0 8.9 12.5 14.2 17.3 18.7 18.0 14 13 12-13
CPI (%) (0.4) 3.8 3.2 7.8 8.3 7.4 8.3 23.1 7.1 8.9 18.7 9.1 6.6 4.1 0.9 4.7 4.0 2.98 2.73 3.4-3.5
USD/VND 15,084 15,403 15,646 15,777 15,916 16,054 16,114 16,977 17,941 18,932 20,828 20,828 21,036 21,199 21,923 22,365 22,750 23,355 23,229 23,200
Deposit rate 12 month 6.8 7.8 7.2 7.6 8.4 8.4 8.8 13.5 10.4 11.5 13.0 11.5 8.5 6.8 6 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.12 7.12
6

7. Macro economy Update: CoronaVirus
Vietnam GDP 2020 grow fall
• Good case: -0.63% -> GDP 6.17%
• Bad Case: -0.71% -> GDP 6.09%
Vietnam supporting policies:
• Monetary: cut interest rate
• Fiscal: G spending + tax reduction
Source: BSC
Forecast Before Corona Forecast After Corona ± Change
Q1.2020 2020 Q1.2020 2020 Q1.2020 2020
ANZ 5.9% 5.8% 5.0% 5.8% -0.90% 0.0%
Citi 5.8% 4.8% 5.5% -0.3%
Economist Intelligence Unit 5.9% 4.9-5.4%
Macquarie 5.9% 5.9% 4.0% 5.6% -1.90% -0.3%
Mizuho 5.9% 5.6% -0.3%
Moody's 5.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Natixis 5.7% 5.5% -0.2%
Vanguard 5.8% 5.8% 0.0%
UBS 6.0% 5.5% -0.5%
Bloomberg Economics 5.9% 4.5% 5.7% -0.2%
IHS Markit 5.8% 4.7% -1.1%
Oxford Economics 5.6%
JP Morgan 6.3% 5.9% 4.9% 5.8% -1.40% -0.1%
Average 6.0% 5.9% 4.6% 5.6% -0.30% -0.3%
China GDP grow could fall:
• Good case: -0.5%
• Bad case: -1%
Vietnam and China:
• Trade: import + export $116 billion
• China tourist: 5,8 million (32%)* $1,028 spending on average
• FDI register China + HongKong: $5.1 billion
7

8. Macro economy Update: CoronaVirus
Source: BSC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
AxisTitle
Tong người nhiễm (Cột trái) Tăng thêm hàng ngày (cột phải)
CoronaVirus Peak:
• Zhong Namshan: peak 31-13 / 2/2020, at 4000 new cases/day and the total infected size is about 60,000 people
• The most pessimistic forecast of Johnathan Read, Lancaster University: The peak epidemic forecast is on 31-29 / 2/2020, the highest
new cases 12,000/ day and the total infected size is about 240,000 people.
• BSC: Covid-19 can be contained by Late April 2020
8

10. Stock Market Update: Key take away points
• 2019: Vnindex end +7.67%. Market cap $149 billion ~ 60% GDP (73% GDP if count Upcom),
New listing stocks: TCB, VHM, bond (20.3% GDP, $200 million/day). P/E @ 15.83x slightly
higher than 5 year average 15.67x, and likely to fall below 5 year average after Q4’s business
result be announced.
• 2020
• EPS: 10% BSC’s view vs 11.3% in peers view
• Base case P/E 15.67x (average 5 year) -> Vnindex 1014-1035 (+5-7%)
• Best case: P/E 18.04 (+1 Sd) -> Vnindex 1170-1195 (+21% - +23%)
• Worst case: P/E 13.31 (-1 Sd) -> Vnindex 857-875 (-11% - 10%)
• Factors to watch: global (trade war, China, oil, FED, ECB, US market); Vietnam (interest rate,
FDI, Gov spending, CPI), new listing stock and IPO
• Corona could affect the growth of Earning in 2020 10

11. Stock Market Update: The Market
Source: BSC
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VN-Index 235.4 183.3 166.9 239.3 307.5 751.8 927.0 315.6 494.8 484.7 351.6 413.7 504.6 545.6 579.0 664.8 960.0 892.5
960.99 1100
Growth (%) 13.8 (22.1) (9.0) 43.4 28.5 144.5 23.3 (66.0) 56.8 (2.0) (27.5) 17.7 22.0 8.1 6.1 14.8 44.4 -9.3% 7.67% 13.85%
HNX-Index 242.8 323.6 105.1 168.2 114.2 58.7 57.7 67.8 83.0 80.0 80.1 115.0 104.2 102.51 110
Growth (%) 142.8 33.3 (67.5) 60.0 (32.1) (48.6) (1.7) 17.5 22.4 (3.6) 0.2 43.5 -11 -1.65% 6.86%
Number of account (mil) 0.009 0.014 0.017 0.022 0.031 0.11 0.35 0.53 0.82 1.05 1.18 1.26 1.28 1.39 1.57 1.69 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5
Securities Companies 9.0 10.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 34.0 58.0 77.0 83.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 88.0 89.0 81.0 79.0 79.0 79 74 74
Market Cap (Billion USD) 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.1 0.21 9.33 30.72 11.69 31.93 34.86 25.35 35.96 46.35 54.69 61.84 78.38 140.5 142 139.14 158
Growth (%) 133.3 14.3 (25.0) 66.7 110.0 4,342.9 229.3 (61.9) 173.1 9.2 (27.3) 41.9 28.9 18.0 13.1 26.7 79.2 1
-2.01 12.25
% GDP 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.40 14.00 39.70 11.80 30.10 30.10 18.70 24.50 27.10 29.40 32.30 38.90 69.30 60 73 82%
Daily liquidity (Mil USD) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 9.9 66.8 46.0 134.5 130.0 50.6 64.1 66.2 141.6 117.1 136.9 217.8 271 190 220
Net Buy (Mil USD) 0.7 5.4 4.7 24.6 17.7 401.5 1,422.2 358.2 186.9 797.0 71.9 213.5 324.5 178.9 124.8 -360.9 980 1813 315 500.0
- P/E VN-Index 45.03 24.31 13.49 12.14 10.44 8.76 11.73 12.39 12.88 12.53 15.55 18.9 15.7 15.83 16
- P/B VN-Index 6.82 4.62 1.6 2.21 1.88 1.2 1.52 1.77 1.78 1.72 1.97 2.7 2.44 2.3 2.3
Performance: Vnindex +7.67% (VND/USD -0.57%) and Hnx -1.65% (Frontier +8.3% , Emerging -
12%, MSCI world index +23%)
Liquidity: $220M ($190M 2019), 63 stocks > USD 1 million turnover daily, Foreign investors still
net buy ~ USD 0.31 billion (VHM: USD 1.1 billion). Futures liquidities ~ $ 250 million daily. 11

12. Fearless forecast 2019: Valuation
P/E ratio VNindex EPS VNindex
Source: BSC
14.64
15.64
17.95
13.33
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) average 5 year P/E
+1STDEV -1STDEV
+1.65STDEV -1.65STDEV
57.13
63.96
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EPS
12

13. Fearless forecast 2019-2020: Peers’ view
Source: Bloomberg
No Stock weight 13/12/19 Mean Max Min P/E P/B
1 VIC 11.73% 116,000 122,975 129,600 113,300 73.0 5.0
2 VCB 9.90% 88,400 89,906 109,000 69,000 16.8 4.0
3 VHM 9.02% 89,100 108,098 115,000 104,300 19.8 6.9
4 VNM 6.21% 118,000 135,583 155,600 120,900 21.3 7.5
5 GAS 5.67% 98,000 106,620 109,500 102,600 16.7 4.1
6 BID 5.09% 41,900 36,403 42,900 31,000 19.9 2.5
7 SAB 4.52% 233,200 280,947 312,000 247,241 31.7 8.4
8 TCB 2.45% 23,150 31,658 40,000 24,892 8.7 1.4
9 VJC 2.36% 144,500 143,618 165,000 121,100 14.7 5.6
10 VRE 2.36% 33,550 40,689 43,900 35,000 27.3 2.7
11 CTG 2.32% 20,600 22,200 22,200 22,200 12.5 1.0
12 PLX 2.17% 55,400 69,667 70,300 68,600 16.0 3.0
13 MSN 2.05% 58,000 89,114 104,000 73,000 12.9 2.0
14 HPG 1.99% 23,800 29,835 34,800 26,139 9.4 1.4
15 NVL 1.55% 55,000 63,500 65,000 62,000 17.3 2.5
16 MBB 1.53% 21,800 32,428 45,819 26,663 6.7 1.3
17 MWG 1.51% 113,000 168,593 215,000 140,000 13.6 4.4
18 HVN 1.48% 34,600 38,748 40,443 35,800 19.8 2.7
No Stock weight 13/12/19 Mean Max Min P/E P/B
19 VPB 1.46% 19,650 31,223 72,805 20,000 5.9 1.2
20 BVH 1.44% 68,000 85,715 86,300 85,130 36.0 3.0
21 FPT 1.17% 57,100 74,729 78,400 66,000 12.2 2.9
22 POW 0.87% 12,350 16,942 18,334 15,800 15.1 1.2
23 HDB 0.83% 27,950 30,643 33,000 29,000 9.6 1.8
24 EIB 0.63% 16,800 16,800 16,800 16,800 32.5 1.3
25 STB 0.57% 10,050 15,925 17,800 14,049 6.5 0.7
26 PNJ 0.56% 83,500 95,011 105,000 86,200 17.3 4.5
27 BHN 0.55% 79,100 79,100 79,100 79,100 38.4 4.1
28 TPB 0.54% 21,000 26,250 27,600 25,200 7.3 1.5
29 HNG 0.48% 14,250 14,250 14,250 14,250 0.0 1.5
30 KDH 0.45% 27,100 30,375 32,000 28,300 16.0 2.0
31 ROS 0.41% 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 69.5 2.3
32 DHG 0.38% 95,000 88,444 92,000 79,000 20.9 3.9
33 REE 0.34% 36,500 48,150 48,300 48,000 6.5 1.1
34 SBT 0.33% 18,500 18,500 18,500 18,500 42.1 1.5
35 TCH 0.32% 29,600 29,600 19,200 19,200 27.6 2.4
36 SSI 0.30% 19,200 23,013 23,525 22,500 10.9 1.0
Vnindex 85.23% 966.18 1,104.4 1,242.1 994.3 16.3 2.4
13

14. Fearless forecast 2020: Valuation
Source: BSC
Vnindex vs EM, FM and Global market (ytd %) Vnindex P/E vs Asia markets
Now on
Sale at
trailing
14.6x
14

15. Stock Market
2020 – 2021 Watch list 15

16. Vietnam: Divest from the peers
• Policies change: New Securities law 2021-> easier for FOL apply, Covered warrant, ETF, Futures
• Upgrade to Emerging market: (1) 2021 or (2) 2022 -> foreign Inflow and Valuation rerate
• New products: CW, Vndiamond, VN Fin lead, Vnfin select, VN600/100
• The IPO process : many big SOE waiting for the IPO (Agribank, VNPT, Mobifone, Genco 1,
Genco 2, Satra, HUD, Vicem, Hanoi Tourist). Divestment : slower in 2020, and several fail deal
(DRC, SFG,…)
• Listing: All the remained OTC Banks
• Supporting policies (due to CoronaVirus)
• Merge HSX, HNX: When? -> Valuation rerate for large cap in HNX, Upcom
Global factors:
• Recession: Longest expansion ever?
• China: Economy slowing down, huge leverage and trade war tension
• Geopolitical: Election year in the US, VN; Brexit (EV-FTA), Iran
• Covid-19:
Source: BSC
Stock market 2020: what to watch
16

17. Stock market 2020: Upgrade to Emerging 2021
Saudi Arabia Case: From Frontier to Emerging market
Source: Bloomberg, BSC
FII in Asian Countries 2018-2019
New Securities
Law
11/19 05/20 03/21 06/21 03/22 06/22
MSCI include
Vietnam in
watchlist
MSCI include
Vietnam
Officially
FTSE include Vietnam OfficiallyFTSE review Vietnam
MSCI include
Kuwait
17

18. Stock market 2020: Volatility & new Products
Source: BSC
0
50
100
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
>=2% <=-2%
Covered warrant
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vn-Index
VNINDEX
Future VN30
New ETF: Diamond, Fin
18

19. Stock market 2020: Futures Vn30
Source: BSC
Futures VN30 Open interest/volume (%)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
08/17
10/17
12/17
02/18
04/18
06/18
08/18
10/18
12/18
02/19
04/19
06/19
08/19
10/19
12/19
PX_VOLUME OPEN_INT PX_LAST
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OPEN_INT/Volume OPEN_INT/Volume (3months)
19

20. Stock market 2020: Covered Warrant
Source: BSC
Futures VN30 Open interest/volume (%)
CW % CW
Liquidit
y CW
Stock % Stock Liquidity
Stock
trend
CFPT1901 0.4688 145819 FPT 0.2077 6209481 Positive
CMWG1901 2.0478 100910 MWG 0.2741 1052119 Positive
CMBB1901 0.2204 232057 MBB 0.1159 4338098 -
CPNJ1901 -0.5943 78173 PNJ 0.1368 718885 -
CHPG1901 -0.912 121356 HPG -0.055 1897280 Negative
CHPG1903 -0.9846 63415 HPG -0.055 1897280 Negative
Performance: CW is small, overvalued, but it help awake the giant stock. 200

21. Stock market 2020: Year of choice IPO
• The State will only maintain its holdings in strategic sectors such as national
defenses, railways, posts, lottery, money & gold production, etc.
 After this wave there will be no more BIG IPO
2017
991/TTG list IPO 2017 – 2020
1232/QD-TTg List Divestment 2017-2020
Why ?
2017
50/135 companies
IPO and divest
2018
39/181 companies
IPO and divest
Total No. of SOEs
12/2019
13/62 companies
IPO and divest
2017
167/ND-TTG State asset
126/ND-TTg Joint stock Companies
2018
32/ND-TTG State asset and capital
2019
26/ND-TTg List IPO 2020211

22. Stock market 2020: Year of choice Listing
222

23. Source: BSC
Month Time (date) Event
01/2020 28-29 FED meeting
02/2020 23-27 Ishares MSCI review
03/2020 23 - 27 FTSE Russell market review
03/2020 17 – 18 FED meeting
04/2020 28-29 FED meeting
05/2020 31 Ishares MSCI review (Kuwait)
05/2020 Central Party meeting
06/2020 22-26 MSCI market announcement
06/2020 9-10 FED meeting
06/2020 National Assembly
07/2020 28-29 Fed meeting
Month Time (date) Event
08/2020 26 Ishare MSCI review
09/2020 15-16 Fed meeting
09/2020 23-27 FTSE Russell market review
10/2020 29-30 Fed meeting
10/2020 Central Party meeting
11/2020 3 US election
11/2020 4-5 Fed meeting
11/2020 21-22 G20 meeting
11/2020 National Assembly
11/2020 30 Ishare MSCI review
12/2020 15-16 Fed meeting
12/2020 23-27 MSCI market announcement
Stock market 2020: Year of choice
233

24. Stock market 2020: Recession Prof vs Pro
Source: RBC Capital Markets
244

25. Stock market 2020: Cycles by time & stage
Source: Black rock
255

26. Risks to watch
Political risk
• China – VN relation (SEA)
• Vietnam’s next party leader term (2021) and US election 2020
• Vietnam anticorruption (2020)
Trade
• US on fake “Made in Vietnam” labelled goods (seen as back door for China)
• Vietnam ranks 6th for most goods surplus to US (44bill, 2.7% GDP)
• Rating from Moody (BA3) outlook negative
Source: BSC 266

27. Sector rating 2006 - 2018
277
278

28. Vietnam 2020 - 2030
28

29. Vietnam 2020 - 2030
 104 million people
 GDP per capital 6,500 USD
 GDP 670 billion USD
 GDP growth 5.6% - 7.5%
 Urbanization 45%
 Middle Class 52%
 Tourism: 30-32 million Visitiors
 10 Billion Market cap in Tech & IT
 G5 Telecom (2G:1993-2022, 3G:2009-2025?, 4G:2016-?)
 No motor bike in Hanoi
299

30. Vietnam Recent report 2020
 Macro & Market 2020
 Sector review 2019
 Sector outlook 2020
 Corona (1)
 Corona (2)
 Banking update
 Interest rate and Company’s Earning
30

31. FR
Contact
Long Tran - Head of resea rch
• E Longtt@bsc.com.vn
• P +84 24 3935 2722 (118)
• M +84 906 959 034
• S rongbeo
31
30

32. Disclaimer
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of
opinion, are based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or correctness
are not guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration
and they were based upon the best information then known to us, and in our opinion are fair and
reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are
subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. BSC and other companies in the BSC and/or their
officers, directors and employees may have positions and may affect transactions in securities of
companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for
these companies. This document is for private circulation only and is not for publication in the press or
elsewhere. BSC accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use
of this or its content. The use of any information, statements forecasts and projections contained herein
shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. No part of this material may be (i) copied,
photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii) redistributed without the prior written
consent of BIDV Securities Company (BSC).
© 2019 BIDV Securities Company, All rights reserved. Unauthorized access is prohibited.
Bloomberg: RESP BSCV <GO>
32

33. Backup slide: IPO list
Source: BSC
Name Charted Capital (million USD)
1 Agribank 1,309
2 Genco 1 770
3 Genco 2 508
4 VNPT 2,727
5 Vicem 622
6 Mobifone 644
7 Satra 372
8 HUD 89
9 TKV 1,502
10 DAKWACO 14
9 billion USD Charted Capital
33

34. Backup slide: OTC Bank
Source: BSC
• 2.1 billion USD Charted Capital
• 115 billion USD Total Asset
Banks Charted Capital
(billion VND)
Total Asset
(billion VND)
Agribank 30,496 1,353,171
SCB 15,232 552,548
Seabank 9,369 152,559
PVCombank 9,000 151,738
MSB 11,750 148,342
OCB 6,599 106,413
VietA 3,500 72,680
Baoviet bank 3,150 53,663
Viet Capital bank 3,171 48,019
PG Bank 3,000 30,940
Saigonbank 3,080 22,077
DongA Bank 5,000
Ocean Bank 4,000
GP Bank 3,018
CB Bank 3,000
Banks under
special control
34

35. Backup slide: Macro
Interest rate cut
Source: BSC
Monetary Policy
35

36. Backup slide: Macro
Source: BSC
0
50
100
150
200
250
Frequency
Bin
Histogram: Vnindex daily
The change that Vnindex drop more than -3.3% day like in 30/01/2020 is 0.75% in
the last 6 years -> opportunities for longterm investors
38

37. Backup slide: Sector rating
Source: BSC
No Sectors Recommence BUY Tracking
1 Banking Outperform ACB, MBB, VPB, VCB TCB, VIB, TPB, CTG
2 Consumer Outperform MWG, PNJ VNM, MSN, SAB
3 Electricity Outperform REE, PC1 POW, NT2
4 Technology/postal Outperform FPT, VTP CMG
5 Aviation Outperform VJC
6 Real estate Neutral DXG, NLG, HDG, VHM, KDH KBC
7 Non-life Insurance Neutral PVI. BMI
8 Oil & Gas Neutral GAS, PVD PVS
9 Pharmarceutical Neutral IMP, DBD, DHG, PME
10 Steel Neutral HPG HSG, NKG
11 Tiles Neutral VGC, CVT
12 Plastic Neutral BMP NTP, AAA
13 Textile Neutral MSH, STK TCM, TNG, VGT, VGG
14 Seaport Neutral GMD, VSC
15 Transportation Neutral PVT
16 Natural Rubber Neutral PHR GVR
17 Tire Neutral DRC CSM
18 Fertilier Neutral BFC DPM, DCM, LAS
19 Aquaculture Neutral VHC FMC, MPC
20 Cement Neutral HT1 BCC
21 Sugar Underperform QNS SBT
22 Construction Underperform HBC, CTD
37

38. Backup slide: Bear & Bull market
Source: BSC
38

39. Backup slide: FM worries about
Source: RBC Capital Markets
39

40. Backup slide: What kind of companies to divest?
• The State will only maintain its holdings in strategic sectors such as national
defenses,, railways, posts, lottery, money & gold production, etc.
 After this wave there will be no more BIG IPO
2011-2015
499 SOEs
Expected 2016-2020
250 – 280 SOEs
No. of equitized SOEs
2001
6,000 SOEs
2016
718 SOEs
Total No. of SOEs
Expected 2020
200 SOEs
40

41. Backup slide: IPO 2017-2018
41

42. Backup slide: Emerging market vs P/E, P/B
Source: BSCSource: Bloomberg
FII in Asian Countries 2019
Country November YTD 12months
India 3,254 13,477 13,268
Indonesia (493) 2,894 2,843
Japan 11,328 (2,661) (6,842)
Malaysia (289) (2,309) (2,829)
Phillipines (259) (67) (162)
Korea (3,025) (100) 199
SriLanka (36) (59) (77)
Taiwan 1,961 8,531 9,987
Thailand (254) (685) (1,414)
Vietnam (54) 232 204
42

43. Vietnam Median Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand
P/E P/B P/E P/B P/E P/B P/E P/B P/E P/B P/E P/B
Finance 13.5 1.4 16.4 1.6 80.4 30.6 16.0 1.3 16.4 1.8 16.5 1.1
Consumer
goods
14.4 1.4 27.9 2.2 28.9 2.4 31.9 4.6 22.0 1.9 27.0 1.3
Industry 11.2 1.0 24.4 1.8 30.8 1.8 20.3 2.2 14.5 1.8 28.4 1.3
Oil and Gas 11.2 1.8 12.1 1.1 6.3 0.7 30.6 3.8 0.4 12.1 1.5
Consumer
service
13.3 2.1 27.2 2.3 33.1 1.8 10.5 3.2 27.4 2.8 27.0 1.3
Basic material 21.7 0.7 28.4 1.4 29.5 1.2 27.3 2.7 7.5 1.6 72.1 0.9
Utilities 12.7 1.6 23.4 1.7 22.3 1.1 39.4 1.5 10.7 1.9 24.5 2.3
Technology 16.1 1.7 22.8 1.5 29.6 1.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a 16.1 1.4
Health 15.7 2.0 30.4 2.3 19.6 2.3 51.1 2.2 n/a n/a 30.4 3.4
Telecommunica
tion
12.2 2.8 26.2 3.6 53.9 2.6 24.1 3.9 24.1 3.9 28.3 3.3
Backup slide: Emerging market vs P/E, P/B
Source: BSCSource: Bloomberg 43