Slides "D1: The NMC Methodology" for a one-day workshop on "Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond" by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2015 conference. Held on Monday 19 October 2015 For further information see http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future

1. Preparing for the Future: Technological
Challenges and Beyond
D1: The NMC Methodology
Brian Kelly
Independent researcher/consultant at
UK Web Focus Ltd.
Tony Hirst
Senior lecturer at The Open University
Contact Details
Brian Kelly Tony Hirst
Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.com
Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia
Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/
Slides and further information available at
http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/
UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut

2. D: NMC Methodology
Contents
• Can we trust the experts?
• Collaboration and crowd-sourcing
• Systematising: Delphi process
• Using the process
2

3. D: NMC Methodology
Listening to Experts
You:
• Go to a conference and listen to an expert
• Read a report written to expert in sector
• Organise an event with input from experts
The experts identify relevant solutions
But does this always work?
• SGML for sharing computer documentation
• METS metadata standard
3

4. D: NMC Methodology
Should ACOCG Use SGML?
2-day SGML workshop organised by ACOCG in March
1990
Context:
ACOCG wish to distribute viewgraphs; teaching
material and manual across HE sector so they can be
updated for local use
Questions for workshop delegates:
• Is SGML the right protocol to use?
• If so, are DAPHNE DTDs good starting point?
• If so, what changes are used?
• …
4

5. D: NMC Methodology
Should ACOCG Use SGML?
Audience
• 13 speakers and additional 15 delegates
• Included SGML experts
Main Recommendations
• SGML should be adopted for document distribution
• A set of DTDs should be established
• Experiences should be shared across sector
Reality
• Documentation probably produced using MS Word!
Observations
• SGML was too heavyweight
• Sector was gaining expertise in DTP and WYSIWYG
word processors
• In 1998 XML standard released, a lightweight update to
SGML 5

6. D: NMC Methodology
We commission
reports from experts
in a field
Should we be
surprised that they
highlight the
importance of the
area they are experts
in?!
The expertise is
important, but we
need to have
counter-balances
6
… is an information professional who has specialized
in the fields of electronic information provision for over
20 years.
In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for
digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of
the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding
and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library
metadata.

7. D: NMC Methodology
A Collaborative Approach
We could use Twitter
7
Tweet your ideas
with event hashtag
I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future!
#ilifut2015 58
Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off
from visiting when it’s raining! #ilifut2015 22
and implications
for libraries
We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to
the library #ilifut2015 41
Discuss alternative
implications …
So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library
building? #ilifut2015 48
7
& issues such as legal
implications, business
models, …
What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use?
Importing banned book? … #ilifut2015 27
Feel free to add
implications for users
…
Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh
insights, … (but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!)

8. D: NMC Methodology
NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Library Edition
NMC Horizon Report,
2015: Library edition:
• Published in Aug
2015
• Based on ideas
from panel of
experts
• Ideas refined using
Delphi process
• Report available
under Creative
Commons licence
8
PDF

9. D: NMC Methodology
Delphi Process
From Wikipedia:
The Delphi method is a structured communication
technique or method, originally developed as a
systematic, interactive forecasting method which
relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer
questionnaires in two or more rounds.
9
This approach is used by the panel of experts
which provide input into NMC Horizon reports

10. D: NMC Methodology
Short-Term Technology Drivers
What trends driving technology adoption in the short
term (1-2 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify?
10
Trends are sorted into three movement-related
categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their
impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of
slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within
(2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years.
After summarising technologies important in short-term,
lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption
TechnologyDrivers

11. D: NMC Methodology
Short-Term Technology Drivers
Two areas of importance in the short-term (1-2 years to
adoption) were identified and prioritised:
11
TechnologyDrivers
“Overview According to a study from eConsultancy, 88% of online customers are
unlikely to return to a website after a negative initial experience. A first impression is
critical in the digital world ...”
“The rise of mobile technology is changing the nature of discovery and research
workflows, leading many libraries to adapt their strategies for the delivery of content and
services. Responsive web design (RWD) is one way that libraries are accommodating
their increasingly mobile patrons”.

12. D: NMC Methodology
What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):
• What significant technology drivers do you feel will
have an impact in the short term (1-2 years)
• Document (or tweet or shout) your ideas!
• Facilitators will record ideas
This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group
of experts
12
Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:
• Area 1
• Area 2
This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be
refined and prioritised
TechnologyTrends

13. D: NMC Methodology
Medium-Term Technology Developments
Two technological developments in medium term (2-3 years
to adoption) were identified and prioritised:
13
TechnologyDevelopments
“Information visualization is the graphical representation of technical, often
complex data, designed to be understood quickly and easily. Popularly
called “infographics,” this type of media is highly valuable in the age of
ubiquitous knowledge …”
“The semantic web infers the meaning, or semantics, of information on the Internet
using metadata to make connections and display related information that would
otherwise be elusive or altogether invisible”

14. D: NMC Methodology
What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What significant technological developments
do you feel will have an impact in the medium
term (3-5 years)
• Document (or tweet or shout) your ideas!
• Facilitators will record ideas
This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a
group of experts
14
Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:
• Area 1
• Area 2
This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can
be refined based on your experiences
TechnologyDevelopments

15. D: NMC Methodology
The Challenges
What challenges impeding technology adoption in
academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon
panel identify?
15
These were classed as:
• Solvable Challenges: those that we
understand and know how to solve
• Difficult Challenges: Those that
we understand but for which
solutions are elusive
• Wicked Challenges: Those that are
complex to even define, much less
address
TheChallenges

16. D: NMC Methodology
The Challenges
Two difficult challenges were identified:
16
“Before the rise of the Internet, libraries were widely perceived as the ultimate
gateways to knowledge. … Emerging technologies are fostering changes in patron
behavior, challenging libraries to either adapt to the new expectations defined by
current discovery practices or risk becoming obsolete”
“The influx of data and digital resources involved in learning and research
is challenging the capabilities of libraries. It is no longer enough for
librarians to manage the flow and organization of print materials.”
TheChallenges

17. D: NMC Methodology
What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What:
 Solvable  Difficult  Wicked
challenges are missing?
• Document (or tweet or shout) your ideas!
• Facilitators will record ideas
17
Choose one idea per category:
• Solvable
• Difficult
• Wicked
This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can
be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context
TheChallenges

18. D: NMC Methodology
Questions?
18