Investment Decision Process

1. Understanding of Investment
&
Investment decision process

2. Some Definitions
• Investment: An investment is the current
commitment of money or other resources in
the expectation of reaping future benefits.
(Kane, Bodie and Marcus 2005)

3. Definitions
Generally, “investments” refers to financial
assets and in particular to marketable securities.
Financial assets are paper or electronic claims
on some issuer, such as the government or a
company.
Marketable securities financial assets that are
easily and cheaply tradable in organized markets
Real assets are tangible assets such as gold,
silver, diamonds, real estate.

4. Speculation: Act of trading in an asset, or
conducting transaction, that has significant
risk of losing most or all of initial outlay, in
expectation of substantial gain.
Definitions

5. Investment
• Long term planning (at
least one year)
• Low or moderate risk.
• Low or moderate rate of
return.
• Investment decisions
are based on
fundamentals.
• Investors leveraged its
own funds.
Speculation
• Short term Planning
(few days or months)
• High Risk.
• High rate of return.
• Decisions are based on
hearsay and market
psychology.
• Resort to borrowed
funds.

6. Why to invest?
Investment increases future consumption
possibilities
◦ By foregoing consumption today and investing the
savings, investors expect to increase their future
consumption possibilities by increasing their
wealth

7. If we do not invest, then?
 If we have savings and we do not invest, we
can’t earn anything on our savings.
 Second, the purchasing power of cash
diminishes in inflation
 This means that if savers do not invest their
savings, they will not only lose possible return
on their savings, but will also lose value of
their money due to inflation
If we do not invest, then?

8. But investment has problems
• Investment has the following three problems:
• A. Sacrifice
• While investing, investor delay their current
consumption (delaying consumption is kind of
sacrifice)
• B. Inflation - Investment loses value in periods of
inflation
• C. Risk - giving your money to someone else
involves risk

9. Compensation to investors
• Due to the three problems, investors will not
invest until they are compensated for these
problems
• Required rate of return = compensation for
(sacrifice , inflation, risk)
• RRR= opportunity cost + risk premium

10. Understanding the investment
decision process
• The basis of all investment decisions is to earn
return and assume risk
• By investing, investors expect to earn a return
(expected return)

11. Expected return and risk
Realized returns(actual return) might be more or
less than the expected return
The chance that the actual return on an
investment will be different from the expected
return is called risk
This way t-bills has no risk as the expected
return and actual return are the same
But actual returns on common stock have
greater chances of deviating from expected
return and hence have high risk

12. The expected risk-return trade-off

13. The expected risk-return trade-off
The expected risk-return is depicted in the graph
The line from RFR shows risk-return relationship
of different investment alternatives.
It shows that at zero level of risk, investor can
earn risk free rate (RFR) which is equal to the
rate on t-bills
To earn a little higher return than the risk free
rate, investors can invest in corporate bonds, but
the investors will have to take some risk as well

14. Ex-ante and ex-post risk-return
• To earn even higher return than on corporate
bonds, investor can invest in common stocks,
but the risk is also high
• The risk return trade-off depicted in the graph
in ex-ante i.e. before the fact or before the
investment is made
• Ex post (after fact or actual) trade-off may be
positive, flat or even negative

15. • Fundamental Approach: Believed that there is
an intrinsic value of a security that can be
company, industry and economy.
• Psychological Approach: This approach based
on the premises that stock prices are guided
by the emotions. It is more important to
analyse that how investor tend to behave as
the market is swept by the waves of optimism
and pessimism.
Different approaches to investment
decision making

16. • Academic Approach: Suggest that:
-Stock market is efficient in reacting quickly
and rationally hence it reflects intrinsic value
fairly well.
-Stock price behavior correspond to the
random walk, hence past price behavior can
not be used to predict the future price.
- There is positive relationship between risk
and return.
Different approaches to investment
decision making

17. • Electric Approach: This approach draws on all
the three approaches.
-Fundamental analysis is helpful in
establishing basic standard benchmarks.
- Technical analysis is useful in broadly
gauging the mood of the investor.
- there is a strong correlation between risk
and return.
Different approaches to investment
decision making

18. Steps in the decision process
• Traditionally, the investment decision process
has been structured using two-steps:
– Security analysis
– Portfolio management

19. Security Analysis
Security analysis: this is the first part of
investment decision process
It involves the analysis and valuation of
individual securities
To analyze securities, it is important to
understand the characteristics of the various
securities and the factors that affect them
Then valuation model is applied to find out
their value or price

20. Security Analysis
Value of a security is a function of estimated
future earnings from the security and the risk
attached
For securities valuation, investors must deal
with economy, industry or the individual
company
Both the expected return and risk must be
estimated keeping in view the economic,
market or company related factors

21. Portfolio Management
The second major component of the decision
processes is portfolio management
After securities have been analyzed and
valued, portfolio of selected securities is made
Once a portfolio is made, it is managed with
the passage of time
For management, there can be two
approaches

22. Portfolio Management
Approaches to portfolio management:
◦ A. Passive investment strategy
◦ B. Active investment strategy
In Passive Strategy, investors make few changes in
the portfolio so that transactions costs, time and
search costs are minimum
In Active Strategy, investors believe that they can
earn better returns by actively making changes in
the portfolio

23. • Inadequate comprehension of return and risk.
Investor do not has correct understanding of
risk & return and misled by:
-Tall and unjustified claims made by people.
-Exceptional performance of some portfolios
due to fortuitous factors.
-promises made by the tipsters, operators etc.
Common Errors in Investment
Decision Making

24. • Investment policy is not clearly defined
-Investment policy and risk disposition is not
clearly spelled out.
-conservative investors become aggressive
when the market is bullish.
-Aggressive investor become over cautious in
bearish market.
Common Errors in Investment
Decision Making

25. • Naïve exploration of the past.
-Investor is inexperienced and excessively rely
on the past
• Cursory of decision making.
- Decision are taken on tips and fads rather
than on thoughtful assessment.
- Risks are not considered as greed
overpower.
- Try to follow bandwagon decisions due to
lake of confidence in their own judgment.
Common Errors in Investment
Decision Making

26. • Stock switching
- Irrational start-and-stop.
-Entry (after the market advance has long
been underway)
-Exit (after a long period of stagnation and
decline)
• High Cost Love for a cheap stock
-Cost of transaction is ignored in the greed of
quick profits
Common Errors in Investment
Decision Making

27. • Over and Under-diversification
-Over diversification caused difficulties and
excessive cost in portfolio management.
-Under diversification exposes to risk.
• Wrong attitude towards profit and losses
- Investor try to dilute the loses by averaging
the price of its holdings.
-Try to sell when the prices more or less equal
to holding price even there are chances of
further increase.
Common Errors in Investment
Decision Making