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the season of the consumer
be early. be aggressive. be merry.
holiday outlook 2012:
Terra Hess
Account Planner
Mark Contreras
Account Planner
Insert Client Logo Here
A Look Back at Holiday 2011
Cyber Monday
Reaches All Time
Sales High at $1.25B
11% of Total December
Sales Were Done Via
a Mobile Device
Ten $1B Dollar Days
in Holiday 2011
Cyber Monday Also
Saw a 29% Increase
in Traffic – Totaling
177M Visits in 2011
76% of Consumers
Researched Online
Before Making a
Purchase
55% of Consumers
Expected
“Free Shipping”
Last Holiday
$471.5B Spent
During Holiday 2011,
+4.1% Y/Y
Wall Street Journal, Online Sales Reach Record $1.25B on Cyber Monday, Nov 2011
Mobile Shopping Doubles Over December, LA Times. Jan 2012.
Source: comScore retail e-commerce spending.
Beating Expectations, Holiday Retail Sales Rise 4.1% According to NRF. Jan 2012.
Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
Design Your Holiday Strategy Around 5 Key Insights
eCommerce Growth Will Return to Pre-Recession Levels
Consumer Expectations Will Rise
The 4-Screen Experience Will Change Consumer Shopping
Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive
Success Will Depend on How Early You Launch
5
INSIGHTS
Holiday Outlook 2012
Consumer Spend
Will Be Up in 2012
Average Consumer
Holiday Spend:
$732 (+4%)
Total Expected
Holiday Revenue:
$490.4M (+4%)
Holiday 2012: By the Numbers
Sales Projections
Holiday Outlook 2012
Es1mates	
  Based	
  on	
  CES	
  Data	
  –	
  2011.	
  	
  NRF	
  	
  Holiday	
  Revenue	
  2011.	
  and	
  ComScore	
  	
  
($471.5M in 2011)
($704 in 2011)
Q1 Online Sales Growth Signals a Stronger Q4
Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. Year Ago
ComScore	
  Q1	
  State	
  of	
  Retail	
  2012	
  	
  
Holiday Outlook 2012
+3%
Q4 Y/Y Growth
+5%
Q1 Y/Y Growth
Q1/Q2 Key Spending Dates Give Hope for a Strong Holiday
Valentine’s Day
§  12% Increase in Total Consumer Spend
§  8.5% increase in Spend Per Person
feb
apr Easter
§  11% increase in Total Consumer Spend
§  10.6% increase in Spend Per Person
may Mother’s Day
§  14% increase in Total Consumer Spend
§  8.6% increase in Spend Per Person
2012 Implication:
Based on Historical Performance, Expect Holiday Sales to Reach +$540B
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source:	
  USA	
  Today	
  –	
  Valen1ne’s	
  Day	
  Spending	
  2012;	
  MSN	
  Mother’s	
  Day	
  2012;	
  CNBC	
  Thank	
  You	
  Easter	
  Bunny,	
  Easter	
  Spending	
  to	
  Rise.	
  
0.00%	
  
2.00%	
  
4.00%	
  
6.00%	
  
8.00%	
  
10.00%	
  
12.00%	
  
14.00%	
  
16.00%	
  
2011	
   2010	
   2009	
  
Repeating Patterns Help Predictability
Hitwise	
  Market	
  Share	
  Report,	
  Oct	
  –	
  Dec	
  2009-­‐2011	
  
Holiday Visit Patterns – Shopping & Classifieds
Visit
Share
%
Key Shopping Dates Remain Consistent Over Time.
Use The Shopping Patterns To Plan Your Holiday Strategy
Key Shopping Dates See Significant Growth
Don’t Give Up on December 25th – Consumers Continue to Shop
Hitwise	
  Holiday	
  Planning	
  Webinar,	
  June	
  2012.	
  
2012 Implication:
Keep the lights on! Consumer shopping will not end on Dec. 25th. Shoppers will leverage
the holiday discounts to continue to shop with monetary gifts & gift cards.
Holiday Outlook 2012
Daily	
  Holiday	
  Shopping	
  Milestones,	
  Y/Y	
  Comparison	
  
Top Retail eCommerce Sales Dates Nov & Dec 2011 (in $M)
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Nov 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 Dec 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31 Jan 1
Source: comScore retail e-commerce spending.
Thanksgiving
Cyber Mon
Green Mon Free Ship Day
#1
$1,251
Black Friday
#2
$1,178
#3
$1,133
#4
$1,116
#5
$1,107
#6
$1,072
#7
$1,064
#8
$1,025
#9
$1,024
#10
$1,018
Ten online shopping days this season surpassed
$1 billion in spending
Holiday Outlook 2012
Rank Amount Day Date
1 $1,251B Monday Cyber Monday, Nov. 28th
2 $1,178B Monday Dec. 5th
3 $1,133B Monday Green Monday, Dec. 12th
4 $1,116B Tuesday Nov. 29th
5 $1,107B Tuesday Dec. 6th
6 $1,072B Friday Free Ship Day, Dec. 16th
7 $1,064B Tuesday Dec. 13th
8 $1,025B Wednesday Nov. 30th
9 $1,024B Thursday Dec. 8th
10 $1,018B Thursday Dec. 15th
Mondays & Tuesdays
topped the $1B online shopping days
Source: comScore retail e-commerce spending.
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Key Promotional Dates Saw Double Digital Growth,
While Overall Retail eCommerce Grew 15%
comScore: Holiday Season Online Retail Spending ($M)
Source: comScore, Inc. 20101 Holiday Season vs. 2010 Holiday Season, Non-Travel (Retail) Spending. Excludes Auctions & Large
Corporate Purchases. Total US – Home/Work/University Locations
* 2010 data incorporates seasonal adjustment factor to account for different number of weekdays and weekends in 2010 and 2011. Actual (i.e.
non-seasonally adjusted) 2010 number was $32.589 billion.
2010 2011 % Change Y/Y
November 1 – December 31 $32,359* $37,170 15%
Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24) $407 $479 18%
Black Friday (Nov. 25) $648 $816 26%
Thanksgiving Weekend (Nov. 26-27) $886 $1,031 16%
Cyber Monday (Nov. 28) $1,028 $1,251 22%
Green Monday (Dec. 12) $954 $1,133 19%
Free Shipping Day (Dec. 16) $942 $1,072 14%
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary
In-Store Sales Trends Followed 2010 Patterns
Total US In-Store Sales (MasterCard SpendingPulse)
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Nov 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 Dec 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31
Thanksgiving Black Friday
Cyber
Monday
Source: MasterCard SpendingPulse™
Green Monday Free Ship
Day
#1
$19.2B
+6%
+6%
+5%
+5%
+2%
#5
$14.6B
+4%
#3
$15.7B
+3%
#2
$17.8B
+9%
#4
$14.9B
+3%
Holiday Outlook 2012
Sept. 1st
Sept. 19th
Sept. 25th
Sept. 30th
Retailers Merchandise for Holidays in Late Q3,
Shoppers Respond By Opening Wallets Early
45% of tablet users said they will start shopping before Thanksgiving.
2011 Retailer Holiday Merchandising Launch Dates
40% of consumers begin their Holiday shopping before Halloween.
USA Today-Christmas in September, 2011.
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Thursday,
NOV
22
+40%
+28%
Thanksgiving Becomes A Major Online Shopping Day
Thanksgiving Day Search Ad
Conversion Rates vs. 2010
Thanksgiving Day Revenue
Driven By Search Advertising
1. http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/25/thanksgiving-day-online-
holiday-sales-up-39-percent-mobile-shopping-on-the-rise/
+15%
Increase in ‘Couch
Commerce’ last year
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary 16
Key Highlights:
Consumer Spend Will Be Up in 2012
1.  Based on Historical Data, Expect Growth Trends to Reach +16% Q/Q
•  Develop Strategies Around Retention & Acquisition
2.  Consumers will start shopping earlier in the season as promotions
become aggressive prior to Black Friday.
•  Be Ready to Launch Holiday Strategy Early
3.  Consumers will continue to shop after holiday.
•  Keep the Lights On!
4.  Key Shopping Dates are Becoming More Predictable
•  Focus Spend and Strategy Around Important Days
Holiday Outlook 2012
Consumer Expectations
Continue to Rise
Winning the Bargain-Hunting Shopper
Consumers will be influenced by the following factors
when shopping this holiday season:
•  Economic:
–  80% of 2012 Back-to-School shoppers say that the economy
will impact their spending plans – could be signal for holiday.
•  Historical Expectations:
–  Consumers expect significant deals and discounts from retailers.
–  +30% of Black Friday searches occur before Thanksgiving
•  eCommerce Transparency:
–  Competitive Information Available Anytime with Mobile Devices
•  Social:
–  “Word of Mouth” Deal Sharing via Social Sites
Holiday Outlook 2012
NRF	
  –	
  Consumers	
  Looking	
  to	
  Cut	
  Corners	
  with	
  their	
  2012	
  Back	
  to	
  School	
  Budgets.	
  June	
  2012;	
  Shopper	
  Sciences	
  –	
  Holiday	
  Trends.	
  2011.	
  	
  
	
  
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Free Shipping & Other Incentives Influenced Purchasing:
Consumers set lofty expectations for retailers
19
Last minute
holiday sales
29%
Gift sets or
complimentary items
16%
coupons 37%
Flexible payment
plans/layaway
8%
55%
of consumers
expected Free
Shipping last
holiday season*
51%
shoppers took
advantage of
free shipping**
Transactions
involved free
shipping*
50%+
Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
Holiday Outlook 2012
Consumer Interest in Free Shipping is on the Rise…
Source:	
  Google	
  Internal	
  Data	
  
US Search Query Volume on “Free Shipping” Related Terms on Desktop & Mobile
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
30	
  
35	
  
1/2/06	
   1/2/07	
   1/2/08	
   1/2/09	
   1/2/10	
   1/2/11	
   1/2/12	
  
Indexed	
  Queries	
  
0	
  
100	
  
200	
  
300	
  
400	
  
500	
  
600	
  
700	
  
1/21/08	
  
3/21/08	
  
5/21/08	
  
7/21/08	
  
9/21/08	
  
11/21/08	
  
1/21/09	
  
3/21/09	
  
5/21/09	
  
7/21/09	
  
9/21/09	
  
11/21/09	
  
1/21/10	
  
3/21/10	
  
5/21/10	
  
7/21/10	
  
9/21/10	
  
11/21/10	
  
1/21/11	
  
3/21/11	
  
5/21/11	
  
7/21/11	
  
9/21/11	
  
11/21/11	
  
1/21/12	
  
3/21/12	
  
5/21/12	
  
Indexed	
  Queries	
  
DESKTOP
MOBILE
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source: Google Internal Data 2012)
“Free Shipping” has become the expectation.
What is your shipping strategy this year?
of consumers said they would
cancel their purchase at a retailer
if free shipping wasn’t offered at the end of a transaction.
59%
of Q1 2012 transactions involved free shipping -
the highest percentage of free shipping
ever seen in a non Q4-quarter.
49%
Holiday Outlook 2012
2012 Implication:
Free Shipping offers are now being expected. Determine how you will compete on shipping
strategy, and promote your offerings in your ad text.
ComScore Q1 Review, 2012
Coupons and Discount Offers Category Searches
Continue Steady Growth Since 2009
Source	
  Google	
  Internal	
  
2012 Implication:
Coupons, Discounts, & Daily Deals will continue to play a big role during holiday.
Test ad copy across all devices early to determine the most effective messaging.
Holiday Outlook 2012
Total Visits to Coupon Websites
Consumers continue to seek out discounts
Holiday Outlook 2012
Hitwise	
  Holiday	
  Overview.	
  June	
  2012.	
  
Daily Deal Websites Achieve Long-Term Benefits
Increase
Customer
Lifetime Value
Strengthen
Customer
Loyalty
Increase Customer
Engagement
Frequency
91% of online shoppers reported that they had already
made another transaction with a merchant since taking
advantage of an offer or plan to do so in the future.
Shoppers visited daily deal sites an average of 10x/mth.
They checked email offers an average of 17x/mth.
40% of deal redeemers are already frequent customers.
Holiday Outlook 2012
Marketaire	
  Daily	
  Deals	
  Shoppers	
  2011.	
  Foresee	
  Results	
  Research	
  White	
  Papers	
  Daily	
  Deal	
  Commentary	
  2012.	
  
Total Visits to Flash Sale Websites
Traffic peaked during the week of Cyber Monday
Websites	
   Visits	
  Share	
  
12/3/11	
  
Visits	
  Share	
  
12/4/10	
  
Change	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
(%	
  Points)	
  
Zulily	
   15.66%	
   8.48%	
   7.18	
  
One	
  Kings	
  Lane	
   9.41%	
   2.85%	
   6.57	
  
Totsy	
   6.60%	
   0.77%	
   5.83	
  
My	
  Habit	
   3.72%	
   0.00%	
   3.72	
  
Fab	
   1.75%	
   0.00%	
   1.75	
  
HAUTELOOK	
   11.56%	
   10.00%	
   1.56	
  
woot	
   1.48%	
   0.00%	
   1.48	
  
Lot18	
   0.98%	
   0.015%	
   0.97	
  
Jack	
  Threads	
   1.49%	
   0.68%	
   0.81	
  
Joss	
  and	
  Main	
   0.69%	
   0.016%	
   0.68	
  
Holiday Outlook 2012
Hitwise	
  Holiday	
  Overview.	
  June	
  2012.	
  
Share of Visits to Flash Sales by Mosaic Groups
Captured a more affluent shopper during holidays
Holiday Outlook 2012
Hitwise	
  Holiday	
  Overview.	
  June	
  2012.	
  
2012 Implication:
Use Demographic Insights to Better Target Ads and Product Offers to Your Audience.
Google Confidential and Proprietary
35% of Respondents Have Engaged in ‘Showrooming’
Source: comScore, “State of the US Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012,” May 2012
Who’s engaging in
showrooming?
•  35% of all respondents
•  50% of respondents ages
25-34, the highest of any age
group
•  48% of tablet owners and
43% of smartphone owners
•  43% of Milllennials
..and did they plan it?
•  6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ say
they originally planned to
purchase in-store but
changed their mind and
instead bough online
•  32% said they went to the
store always intending to buy
online
Q: Have you ever “Showroomed” a product before purchasing?
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Price was Biggest Driver for ‘Showrooming’
72%
45%
24%
18%
17%
5%
Price was better online
Planned to buy online but wanted to see item(s) in
person before ordering
Item was out of stock at store
Would rather have item shipped to home
Was not convenient to buy in-person at the time
Other
Location, Location, Location
Respondents living in urban areas
were nearly twice as likely to
choose this option vs. those living in
suburban or rural areas.
Q. Which of the following describe why you utilized showrooming?
Source: comScore, “State of the US Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012,” May 2012
Holiday Outlook 2012
Customize Your Messaging for Better Response Rate
+80% of email marketers send the same content to all subscribers.
However, consumers respond better when the email is more customized.
Tips:
•  Be Friendly: Include subscribers in
the “friends and family” emails to
make them feel special and valued.
•  Get Social: link discounts to those that
interact with your social pages.
•  Be Empowering: Provide links to videos,
discounts and promotions in your email and
encourage your subscribers to share.
source: comscore 2012 digital marketer report
Holiday Outlook 2012
Key Highlights:
Consumer Expectations Have Risen
1.  Free Shipping Has Become the Standard
•  Leverage a “Free Shipping” Offer to Acquire Search Traffic
2.  Consumers Will “Showroom” Online Products In-Store via Mobile Devices
•  Mobilize & Localize Ad Campaigns to Reach Shoppers Anytime
3.  Consumers Will Be Expecting Deals & Hunting for Coupons
•  Test Promotional Ad Copy Early to Determine Those Most Effective
4.  Consumers Expect You To Know Them
•  Personalize Your Search, Display and Email Messaging
Holiday Outlook 2012
The 4-Screen Experience Will
Continue to Change
Consumer Shopping Behaviors
The 4 Screen Experience:
Always Armed with Information
the lines between desktop and mobile continue to blur.
–  each device fills a specific need, yet all compliment one another.
–  devices are more portable and powerful than ever before
we are in the age of the customer, not the retailer
–  consumers demand specific products, and choose when & where to shop
–  they often know more about your competition than your employees
Source: IRCE Presentations 2012, Google Internal Data
Holiday Outlook 2012
As Technology Changes, Consumer Behavior Follows
12:00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM
Hourly Distribution of Searches by Platform
(Doesn’t reflect absolute traffic volume)
Tablet Mobile Desktop
source: source: Google Internal Data, 2011. % of each platform’s traffic shown hourly for one day.
does not indicate absolute or relative traffic volumes. Razorfish/Yahoo, November 2011
Holiday Outlook 2012
Holiday 2011: The Season of Mobile
14.6%
of all online sessions
on a retailer’s site
were initiated from a
mobile device.
200%
Increase in mobile
device sales December
2011 vs. 2010
(11% in 2011 vs. 5.5% in 2010)
Over 6.5M New Smartphone Subscribers in December 2011,
Making It the Highest Volume Month in Smartphone History
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source:	
  IBM:	
  Mobile	
  Shopping	
  Doubles	
  Over	
  
December	
  2011,	
  Reports	
  IBM.	
  Jan	
  10,	
  2012.	
  	
  
Google Confidential and Proprietary
25%
35%
20%
34%
40%
33%
80%
53%
36%
33%
37% 38%
51%
56% 56%
77%
64%
47%
All 2012 Holiday Shoppers
Shopped Online Using Smartphone Or Tablet
35
Mobile & tablet holiday shoppers shopped
earlier and more frequently
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Retailers Saw a More "mobilized" Holiday Shopper
Last Season
+173%
Increase in Mobile
Shopping on Xmas Day
9%
Of online sales were conducted
on Mobile phones
12%
Of online visits to a retailer’s website
were from mobile devices (+5% YoY)
36
Of last-minute gift and store locator
searches came from mobile devices
last holiday season
44%
Source: IBM Benchmarking
2. http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/157983/
Holiday Outlook 2012
42% used more than
one device at the same time
68% started on one
device & continued on another
Holiday Shoppers Used Their Devices Simultaneously
25% used more than one device to shop this year.
Among those…
	
  
Source:	
  Google	
  &	
  Ipsos	
  Digital	
  Connec1ons	
  Study:	
  Life	
  of	
  the	
  Mobile-­‐PC	
  User	
  (January	
  2012).	
  	
  
Holiday Outlook 2012
2012 Implication:
Create a Unified Message Across All Networks and Devices to Create Brand
Awareness & Recognition Among Your Audience.
Source: Google & Ipsos Digital Connections Study:
Life of the Mobile-PC User (January 2012).
Google Confidential and Proprietary 38
Shoppers Use Their Portable Devices for Many Reasons
Source: Google & Ipsos Digital Connections Study: Life of the Mobile-PC User (January 2012).
70%
61%
61%
53%
46%
42%
77%
63%
65%
31%
49%
34%
Read reviews
Compare prices
Compare product info
Search a store’s inventory
Look for discounts/promos
Contact a retailer
Holiday Outlook 2012
Smartphone Tablet
2012 Implication:
Expand your mobile only campaigns to include both brand and product level ad groups.
Be a top contender when the consumer is making purchasing decisions via mobile devices.
Google Confidential and Proprietary 39
A Well-Designed Mobile Shopping Site is Critical for
Holiday Success
won’t recommend business with
poorly designed mobile site
57% have turned to a
competitor’s site after a bad
mobile experience
40%
Source: Compuware, 2012 - http://www.digby.com/mobile-industry-resources/mobile-industry-statistics/
BEFORE AFTER
1-800-FLOWERS
Optimized mobile site to increase
conversions
Holiday Outlook 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Smartphone and tablet shoppers used a combination
of apps & websites
40
57%
% of tablet shoppers used
apps & websites
69%
% of smartphone shoppers
used apps & websites
Source: Google & Ipsos Digital Connections Study: Life of the Mobile-PC User (January 2012).
Holiday Outlook 2012
2012 Implication:
Leverage Mobile Only Campaigns’ Ad Text to Promote Downloads of Your App or
Direct Users to a Mobile Website for an Optimized Experience.
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Holiday shoppers consistently watched product
videos across devices
41
75%
49%
49%
36%
36%
Product reviews/ratings
Product demo
Informational (e.g., features, uses, etc.)
Videos from retailers
Videos from electronic manufacturers/brands
Source: Google & Ipsos Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
Holiday Outlook 2012
Connect with Consumers When They Are Engaged
While watching TV…..
checked email
57%
visited a social networking site
44%
looked up product information for a TV ad they saw
19%
looked up coupons & deals related to a tv ad they saw
16%
Holiday Outlook 2012
Ad Age - TV’s Upfront Pitch Shows Social Media Traction. May 2012
Google Confidential and Proprietary 43
Key Highlights:
The 4-Screen Experience Will
Change Consumer Shopping
1.  The Lines Between Mobile and Desktop Continue to Blur
•  A Detailed Mobile Strategy is Essential This Holiday.
2.  Consumers Start Shopping On One Device and Finish On Another
•  Be Found Anywhere. Anytime: Create a Unified Message Across Devices
3.  Consumers Download Apps & Select Mobile Only Websites for Ease of Use
•  Create a Mobile Optimized Site; Advertise on Downloaded Apps.
4.  TV and Online Join Forces
•  Create an Integrated Strategy Across Traditional and Online Media
Holiday Outlook 2012
Competition Will Become
Even More Aggressive
Pure Play
Online Retailers Brick & Mortar
Retailers
The Playing Field is Changing as Brick & Mortar Retailers
are Competing on the Same Terms as Pure Play
2012 Implication:
Bid aggressively to maintain top ad rank and maintain category visit share.
Holiday Outlook 2012
Game Changers:
Retailers Make Early Announcements That Will Impact Holiday Strategy
Holiday Outlook 2012
Amazon	
  to	
  Offer	
  Same	
  Day	
  Delivery:	
  Will	
  It	
  Change	
  the	
  Way	
  You	
  Shop?	
  Yahoo	
  Finance.	
  July	
  2012.	
  	
  
Macy’s	
  Using	
  Retail	
  Stores	
  as	
  Distribu1on	
  Centers.	
  May	
  2012.	
  Ebay	
  Launches	
  New	
  Fashion	
  Site.	
  Digital	
  Trends.	
  April	
  2012.	
  	
  
health & beauty
household commodities
apparel &
accessories
fashion & luxury
home
grocery
The Amazon Effect
They currently get 2 out of every 5 visits to the Internet Retailer Top
500; spreading model to all verticals
Holiday Outlook 2012
Macy’s Executes Progressive Promotions in 2011
Retailer Integrates It’s Online and Offline Promotional Strategies
2011
2012 Implication:
Save a portion of your budget to compete with unexpected promotions from competitors.
“With their newest digital solutions they continue to harness
some of the key strengths that Amazon used to exclusively
hold…..they are finding ways to turn what could be seen as a
limitation of a bricks and mortar location into a strength that
will continue to position them as a leader and first stop for
shopping.”
- Scott Thaler, EVP Zimmer Advertising telling Forbes
Launches Aggressive Weekly Online Only
Promotions Starting the Week of Halloween
Promotions Varied Between Departments
(Apparel, Home Furnishings, Kitchen, etc)
2012
Holiday Outlook 2012
Macy’s	
  2.0	
  Sales	
  Strategy	
  Puts	
  the	
  Pedal	
  to	
  the	
  Metal	
  In	
  Digital.	
  May	
  2012.	
  	
  
Home Improvement Giants Are Scared,
Rushing to Ramp Up Online Presence
“we know we are behind folks like
Amazon. we’ve put a stake in the
ground. we want to catch up and
get ahead. we certainly are not
going to lose share”
220,000 à 3,100,000 SKUs
(direct result of commitment to the web)
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source: MarketWatch: Largest Home Improvement Retailer Online Channel Internet Sales. August 2011; Internet Retailer: Web Grows 70%, Lowes. 2011.
Key Highlights:
Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive
1.  The Playing Field Has Leveled
•  Know Your Competition – Big Box Players Are Now Aggressively
Competing Against Specialty Retailers
2.  Early Announcements from Major Retailers Could Change Holiday Strategy
•  Amazon & Macy’s Challenge Industry With Shipping Efficiencies
3.  Expect Retailers to Have Aggressive Promotions Before Black Friday
•  Be Ready to Compete During Big Box Retailer Promotional Periods
4.  In-Store Holiday Merchandising Starts Early
•  Be Prepared for Early Online Shoppers
Holiday Outlook 2012
Success Will Depend on
How Early You Launch
Be Relevant.
Be Found.
Be Trusted.
Be Relevant.
Recommendation
1
Pre-Holiday Prep: Utilize All Search
Ad Formats to Gain Complete Coverage
2
Be Discovered Early When Consumers
Are Researching Gift Ideas
3
Customize Holiday Ad Text:
Personalize the Experience
Holiday Outlook 2012
Pre-Holiday Preparation
Be Relevant: Maximize All Opportunities to Engage with the Shopper Now
Product Listing
Ads
Sitelinks
Ad Extensions
Android	
  Phone	
  |	
  BestBuy.com	
  
www.bestbuy.com	
  
Save	
  Instantly	
  On	
  Android	
  With	
  No	
  Mail	
  Rebates	
  at	
  BestBuy!	
  	
  
Kari	
  Clark,	
  Chris1an	
  Oestlien,	
  +1’d	
  this	
  page	
  
+20% CTR
for 2-line sitelinks
+30% CTR
for 3-line sitelinks
Able to show on
Google Search
Results &
Google Images
Visually Reach
Shoppers
as they Search
Holiday Outlook 2012
Mobile & Tablet
Only Campaigns
Speak the
language of the
mobile user.
Check Bids
& Budgets
Be prepared
for increased
competition during
peak season
Keyword
Coverage
Be part of the
consumer’s
consideration
at all stages
General:	
  	
  
Shoes,	
  Women’s	
  Shoes	
  
	
  
Specific:	
  	
  
Asiacs	
  Women’s	
  Running	
  Shoes	
  	
  
Oct 	
  	
  	
  	
  Nov	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Dec	
  
Holiday Outlook 2012
Pre-Holiday Preparation
Be Relevant: Maximize All Opportunities to Engage with the Shopper Now
Be Relevant During the Discovery Stage
Over 1/3 of Holiday Searches Occur Before Halloween
Holiday Outlook 2012
0	
  
1	
  
2	
  
3	
  
4	
  
5	
  
6	
  
7	
  
8	
  
9	
  
Indexed	
  Queries	
  
Indexed	
  Queries	
  for	
  “Children’s	
  Toys”	
  Keywords	
  on	
  Google	
  Search	
  
January	
  2010	
  –	
  January	
  2012	
  
Recommendation:
Use Remarketing to Capture Shoppers That Researched
Early, Then Serve Ads To Them During Peak Season
Google Internal Data.
Customize Your Ad Messaging with Remarketing
Consumers Want to Feel Valued & Understood
Holiday Outlook 2012
Recommendation:
Update Your Text and Display Ads with
More Personalized Messaging.
Dynamic Remarketing
Order	
  Today	
  for	
  Free	
  Shipping!	
  
Static Remarketing
Running	
  Shoes	
  Discount	
  
Come	
  back	
  &	
  view	
  our	
  new	
  
sale	
  on	
  running	
  shoes!	
  
zappos.com/running	
  
Be Relevant: Recommendations
Holiday Outlook 2012
Recommendation Device Investment Return
Launch
Date
Examples:
Mobile Only Campaigns
for Product X, Y, Z
$20K $60K 11/1
Promote Your New Tablet
Optimized Interface in
Your Search Ad Text
$10K $30K 11/1
TV Campaign to Promote
Black Friday Sale on
Products X, Y and Z
$100K $200K 11/1
Keyword Expansion on all
Search Desktop and
Mobile Campaigns
$25K $60K 11/1
Be Relevant.
Be Found.
Be Trusted.
Be Found.
Action Items
1
Be Anywhere, Anytime. Utilize All Search Ad Formats
to Gain Complete Coverage
2
Launch Campaigns Early in the Season When Consumers
Are Hunting for Bargains
3
Continue to Run Broad Keywords Late in the Season, as
Undecided Shoppers are Just Starting to Search
4
Keep the Lights on After December 25th - shoppers will
continue to buy!
Holiday Outlook 2012
Be Anywhere, Anytime
Mobile is a Must Have This Holiday Season
Recommendation:
Develop a specific “Go-to-Market strategy” for Mobile and Tablet
Devices that Allows Your Consumer to Reach You at All Times.
Separate Mobile and Tablet Campaigns from Search to
Gain Control of Bid Adjustments at the Device Level
Feature Ad Call-to-Actions that Highlight
Your Mobile or Tablet Optimized Websites.
Serve Rich Media Ads Through Ad Mob
to Reach App Users
Holiday Outlook 2012
Differentiate to Win the In-Store Shopper Online
Source:	
  Google	
  “Our	
  mobile	
  planet”	
  Ipsos	
  MediaCT	
  and	
  TNS,	
  May	
  2012	
  
31%
of U.S. smartphone owners have researched or
purchased products from their device in a store
Holiday Outlook 2012
Recommendation:
Promote Compelling Offers to Deal-Seeking In-Store Shoppers
Through Mobile Search Ads
Update Your Text & Image Ads to Feature Current Incentives
Reach the Bargain-Hunters This Holiday
“Free Shipping”
“25% off Coupon”
Prepare for Earlier & More Aggressive Promotions
Optimize Mobile Campaigns to Reach
Shoppers as They Browse In-Store
Thanksgiving Store Openings
Pre-Black Friday Deals & Discounts
+14% of searches initiate from a mobile device
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source: Google & Ipsos Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
?
“Undecided Shoppers”
are looking for:
1.  gift guidance & direction
2.  fast turn-around time
3.  convenience & ease
Holiday gift baskets
Holiday gifts for him
Holiday address labels
Holiday decor
Unique holiday gifts
Holiday gifts
Cheap holiday gifts
Holiday table settings
Gift Ideas for Women
Gift Ideas
Christmas Gifts
Top Search Terms
Two Weeks Prior to
Christmas
Undecided Shoppers Are Looking for Advice
Recommendation:
Bid Aggressively on
Broad Gifting/Holiday
Keywords During the
Final Weeks of December
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source: Google Internal Data
19%	
  
15%	
  
32%	
  
6%	
  
17%	
  
3%	
  
2%	
  
1%	
  
4%	
  
8%	
  
1%	
  
39%	
  
28%	
  
6%	
  
3%	
  
7%	
  
Before Thanksgiving November Early/Mid December Boxing week After Christmas/Holiday
Season
Start Finish
5% of shoppers start and 10% finish their shopping after the Christmas season
Keep the Lights on After December 25th
Holiday Outlook 2012
Source: Google & Ipsos Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
Google Confidential and Proprietary 66
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
10/22 10/29 11/5 11/12 11/19 11/26 12/3 12/10 12/17 12/24 12/31 1/7
Amazon Target Best Buy JCP Macys Walmart
Share of Weekly Visits, 2011
Amazon Kept the Lights On,
But Many Traditional Retailers Did Not
Source: Hitwise
Recommendation:
Keep Serving Ads After December 25th. Shoppers are Using Monetary
Gifts and Gift Cards, as Well as Taking Advantage of Post-Holiday Sales
Holiday Outlook 2012
Be Found: Recommendations
Recommendation Device Investment Return
Launch
Date
Examples:
Mobile Only Campaigns
for Product X, Y, Z
$20K $60K 11/1
Promote Your New Tablet
Optimized Interface in
Your Search Ad Text
$10K $30K 11/1
TV Campaign to Promote
Black Friday Sale on
Products X, Y and Z
$100K $200K 11/1
Keyword Expansion on all
Search Desktop and
Mobile Campaigns
$25K $60K 11/1
Be Relevant.
Be Found.
Be Trusted.
Be Trusted.
Recommendation
1
Leverage Search & Display Ads to Become an
Engaging Brand That Shopper’s Recognize
2
Use Interactive Media (Video, TV, Social) to Gain
Consumer Awareness and Confidence
3
Highlight Your Superior Shopping Experience with
Google Trusted Stores
Holiday Outlook 2012
Price
Point
Trust
Quality
Brand
Equity
Holiday Outlook 2012
Retailers Must Differentiate with Other Factors
It’s Not Just a Price War Anymore
Holiday Outlook 2012
How ShoeDazzle
Built Their Brand
Recommendation:
Use Interactive Media to
Tell Consumers About
Your Brand & Your Business
Use Consumer Engagement Data to Enhance Your Strategy
Gmail Message Ads
YouTube In-Video Overlays
December 2011 Upstream Report:
Shoedazzle.com
Hitwise	
  Upstream	
  Report.	
  2012	
  
Holiday Outlook 2012
TV & Online Join Forces:
Engaging Consumers Across Screens
Ad Age - TV’s Upfront Pitch Shows Social Media Traction. May 2012
NBC Universal already has network and
show profiles on Pinterest.
CW partnered with Microsoft’s Bing to
create a “Twitter party” in which “Vampire
Diaries” actresses chat with fans.
ESPN’s working with Twitter to start
conversations around big sporting events
Google Confidential and Proprietary 74
Google Confidential and Proprietary 74
Unified Strategies: Merging Online & Offline
Use Google TV to Drive Traffic & Develop Brand Awareness for Your Website.
Proposed Launch Dates: {INSERT HERE}
–  Investment: $xx,xxx - Return: xx Impressions, $0.00 CPM
Holiday Outlook 2012
Reporting is available down to the target level –
see which networks are delivering results
Create Awareness with TV
Take Advantage of New Web Attribution Features
Holiday Outlook 2012
39%ofsmartphone
shoppersusedvideos
whileresearchingand
shopping–
ofwhich77%watchfor
morethan10minutes.
Source: Compete Survey 2011
Holiday Outlook 2012
Recommendation:
1. Produce Videos to Showcase Product Demonstrations,
Company Uniqueness, Customer Reviews, etc.
2. Create Display Ads to Overlay on Video Watch and Search Pages
Mobile Matters
Use Video and Display Formats to Engage & Entertain
TrueView In-Search
Call-to-Action Overlays
TrueView In-Display
Brand Channel
27% of YouTube sessions
contain at least one search
Reach new shoppers through
interest categories on YouTube
and the Display Network
Shoppers can click
directly to your site
Engage customers through
a custom social experience
and community
Holiday Outlook 2012
Differentiate from the Competition:
Highlight Your Superior Shopping Experience
Google Trusted Stores is a badging program that
can improve your conversion rate and average order size.
Open sign-ups at: google.com/trustedstores
Holiday Outlook 2012
Recommendation Device Investment Return
Launch
Date
Examples:
Mobile Only Campaigns
for Product X, Y, Z
$20K $60K 11/1
Promote Your New Tablet
Optimized Interface in
Your Search Ad Text
$10K $30K 11/1
TV Campaign to Promote
Black Friday Sale on
Products X, Y and Z
$100K $200K 11/1
Keyword Expansion on all
Search Desktop and
Mobile Campaigns
$25K $60K 11/1
Holiday Outlook 2012
Be Trusted: Recommendations
Summary
{Insert Client Name}’s Customized
Holiday Recommendations
Recommendation Investment Return
Be Relevant $20K $60K
Be Found $10K $30K
Be Trusted $100K $200K
Total Holiday Strategy $25K $60K
Holiday Outlook 2012
Design Your Holiday Strategy Around 5 Key Insights
eCommerce Growth Will Return to Pre-Recession Levels
Consumer Expectations Will Rise
The 4-Screen Experience Will Continue to Change
Consumer Shopping Behaviors
Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive
Success Will Depend on How Early You Launch
5
INSIGHTS
Holiday Outlook 2012
the season of the consumer
be early. be aggressive. be merry.

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Holiday narrative 2012 節日營銷

  • 1. the season of the consumer be early. be aggressive. be merry. holiday outlook 2012: Terra Hess Account Planner Mark Contreras Account Planner Insert Client Logo Here
  • 2. A Look Back at Holiday 2011 Cyber Monday Reaches All Time Sales High at $1.25B 11% of Total December Sales Were Done Via a Mobile Device Ten $1B Dollar Days in Holiday 2011 Cyber Monday Also Saw a 29% Increase in Traffic – Totaling 177M Visits in 2011 76% of Consumers Researched Online Before Making a Purchase 55% of Consumers Expected “Free Shipping” Last Holiday $471.5B Spent During Holiday 2011, +4.1% Y/Y Wall Street Journal, Online Sales Reach Record $1.25B on Cyber Monday, Nov 2011 Mobile Shopping Doubles Over December, LA Times. Jan 2012. Source: comScore retail e-commerce spending. Beating Expectations, Holiday Retail Sales Rise 4.1% According to NRF. Jan 2012. Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012) Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
  • 3. Design Your Holiday Strategy Around 5 Key Insights eCommerce Growth Will Return to Pre-Recession Levels Consumer Expectations Will Rise The 4-Screen Experience Will Change Consumer Shopping Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive Success Will Depend on How Early You Launch 5 INSIGHTS Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 5. Average Consumer Holiday Spend: $732 (+4%) Total Expected Holiday Revenue: $490.4M (+4%) Holiday 2012: By the Numbers Sales Projections Holiday Outlook 2012 Es1mates  Based  on  CES  Data  –  2011.    NRF    Holiday  Revenue  2011.  and  ComScore     ($471.5M in 2011) ($704 in 2011)
  • 6. Q1 Online Sales Growth Signals a Stronger Q4 Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. Year Ago ComScore  Q1  State  of  Retail  2012     Holiday Outlook 2012 +3% Q4 Y/Y Growth +5% Q1 Y/Y Growth
  • 7. Q1/Q2 Key Spending Dates Give Hope for a Strong Holiday Valentine’s Day §  12% Increase in Total Consumer Spend §  8.5% increase in Spend Per Person feb apr Easter §  11% increase in Total Consumer Spend §  10.6% increase in Spend Per Person may Mother’s Day §  14% increase in Total Consumer Spend §  8.6% increase in Spend Per Person 2012 Implication: Based on Historical Performance, Expect Holiday Sales to Reach +$540B Holiday Outlook 2012 Source:  USA  Today  –  Valen1ne’s  Day  Spending  2012;  MSN  Mother’s  Day  2012;  CNBC  Thank  You  Easter  Bunny,  Easter  Spending  to  Rise.  
  • 8. 0.00%   2.00%   4.00%   6.00%   8.00%   10.00%   12.00%   14.00%   16.00%   2011   2010   2009   Repeating Patterns Help Predictability Hitwise  Market  Share  Report,  Oct  –  Dec  2009-­‐2011   Holiday Visit Patterns – Shopping & Classifieds Visit Share % Key Shopping Dates Remain Consistent Over Time. Use The Shopping Patterns To Plan Your Holiday Strategy
  • 9. Key Shopping Dates See Significant Growth Don’t Give Up on December 25th – Consumers Continue to Shop Hitwise  Holiday  Planning  Webinar,  June  2012.   2012 Implication: Keep the lights on! Consumer shopping will not end on Dec. 25th. Shoppers will leverage the holiday discounts to continue to shop with monetary gifts & gift cards. Holiday Outlook 2012 Daily  Holiday  Shopping  Milestones,  Y/Y  Comparison  
  • 10. Top Retail eCommerce Sales Dates Nov & Dec 2011 (in $M) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Nov 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Jan 1 Source: comScore retail e-commerce spending. Thanksgiving Cyber Mon Green Mon Free Ship Day #1 $1,251 Black Friday #2 $1,178 #3 $1,133 #4 $1,116 #5 $1,107 #6 $1,072 #7 $1,064 #8 $1,025 #9 $1,024 #10 $1,018 Ten online shopping days this season surpassed $1 billion in spending Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 11. Rank Amount Day Date 1 $1,251B Monday Cyber Monday, Nov. 28th 2 $1,178B Monday Dec. 5th 3 $1,133B Monday Green Monday, Dec. 12th 4 $1,116B Tuesday Nov. 29th 5 $1,107B Tuesday Dec. 6th 6 $1,072B Friday Free Ship Day, Dec. 16th 7 $1,064B Tuesday Dec. 13th 8 $1,025B Wednesday Nov. 30th 9 $1,024B Thursday Dec. 8th 10 $1,018B Thursday Dec. 15th Mondays & Tuesdays topped the $1B online shopping days Source: comScore retail e-commerce spending. Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 12. Google Confidential and Proprietary Key Promotional Dates Saw Double Digital Growth, While Overall Retail eCommerce Grew 15% comScore: Holiday Season Online Retail Spending ($M) Source: comScore, Inc. 20101 Holiday Season vs. 2010 Holiday Season, Non-Travel (Retail) Spending. Excludes Auctions & Large Corporate Purchases. Total US – Home/Work/University Locations * 2010 data incorporates seasonal adjustment factor to account for different number of weekdays and weekends in 2010 and 2011. Actual (i.e. non-seasonally adjusted) 2010 number was $32.589 billion. 2010 2011 % Change Y/Y November 1 – December 31 $32,359* $37,170 15% Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24) $407 $479 18% Black Friday (Nov. 25) $648 $816 26% Thanksgiving Weekend (Nov. 26-27) $886 $1,031 16% Cyber Monday (Nov. 28) $1,028 $1,251 22% Green Monday (Dec. 12) $954 $1,133 19% Free Shipping Day (Dec. 16) $942 $1,072 14% Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 13. Google Confidential and Proprietary In-Store Sales Trends Followed 2010 Patterns Total US In-Store Sales (MasterCard SpendingPulse) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Nov 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday Source: MasterCard SpendingPulse™ Green Monday Free Ship Day #1 $19.2B +6% +6% +5% +5% +2% #5 $14.6B +4% #3 $15.7B +3% #2 $17.8B +9% #4 $14.9B +3% Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 14. Sept. 1st Sept. 19th Sept. 25th Sept. 30th Retailers Merchandise for Holidays in Late Q3, Shoppers Respond By Opening Wallets Early 45% of tablet users said they will start shopping before Thanksgiving. 2011 Retailer Holiday Merchandising Launch Dates 40% of consumers begin their Holiday shopping before Halloween. USA Today-Christmas in September, 2011. Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 15. Google Confidential and Proprietary Thursday, NOV 22 +40% +28% Thanksgiving Becomes A Major Online Shopping Day Thanksgiving Day Search Ad Conversion Rates vs. 2010 Thanksgiving Day Revenue Driven By Search Advertising 1. http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/25/thanksgiving-day-online- holiday-sales-up-39-percent-mobile-shopping-on-the-rise/ +15% Increase in ‘Couch Commerce’ last year Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 16. Google Confidential and Proprietary 16 Key Highlights: Consumer Spend Will Be Up in 2012 1.  Based on Historical Data, Expect Growth Trends to Reach +16% Q/Q •  Develop Strategies Around Retention & Acquisition 2.  Consumers will start shopping earlier in the season as promotions become aggressive prior to Black Friday. •  Be Ready to Launch Holiday Strategy Early 3.  Consumers will continue to shop after holiday. •  Keep the Lights On! 4.  Key Shopping Dates are Becoming More Predictable •  Focus Spend and Strategy Around Important Days Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 18. Winning the Bargain-Hunting Shopper Consumers will be influenced by the following factors when shopping this holiday season: •  Economic: –  80% of 2012 Back-to-School shoppers say that the economy will impact their spending plans – could be signal for holiday. •  Historical Expectations: –  Consumers expect significant deals and discounts from retailers. –  +30% of Black Friday searches occur before Thanksgiving •  eCommerce Transparency: –  Competitive Information Available Anytime with Mobile Devices •  Social: –  “Word of Mouth” Deal Sharing via Social Sites Holiday Outlook 2012 NRF  –  Consumers  Looking  to  Cut  Corners  with  their  2012  Back  to  School  Budgets.  June  2012;  Shopper  Sciences  –  Holiday  Trends.  2011.      
  • 19. Google Confidential and Proprietary Free Shipping & Other Incentives Influenced Purchasing: Consumers set lofty expectations for retailers 19 Last minute holiday sales 29% Gift sets or complimentary items 16% coupons 37% Flexible payment plans/layaway 8% 55% of consumers expected Free Shipping last holiday season* 51% shoppers took advantage of free shipping** Transactions involved free shipping* 50%+ Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012) Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 20. Consumer Interest in Free Shipping is on the Rise… Source:  Google  Internal  Data   US Search Query Volume on “Free Shipping” Related Terms on Desktop & Mobile 0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35   1/2/06   1/2/07   1/2/08   1/2/09   1/2/10   1/2/11   1/2/12   Indexed  Queries   0   100   200   300   400   500   600   700   1/21/08   3/21/08   5/21/08   7/21/08   9/21/08   11/21/08   1/21/09   3/21/09   5/21/09   7/21/09   9/21/09   11/21/09   1/21/10   3/21/10   5/21/10   7/21/10   9/21/10   11/21/10   1/21/11   3/21/11   5/21/11   7/21/11   9/21/11   11/21/11   1/21/12   3/21/12   5/21/12   Indexed  Queries   DESKTOP MOBILE Holiday Outlook 2012 Source: Google Internal Data 2012)
  • 21. “Free Shipping” has become the expectation. What is your shipping strategy this year? of consumers said they would cancel their purchase at a retailer if free shipping wasn’t offered at the end of a transaction. 59% of Q1 2012 transactions involved free shipping - the highest percentage of free shipping ever seen in a non Q4-quarter. 49% Holiday Outlook 2012 2012 Implication: Free Shipping offers are now being expected. Determine how you will compete on shipping strategy, and promote your offerings in your ad text. ComScore Q1 Review, 2012
  • 22. Coupons and Discount Offers Category Searches Continue Steady Growth Since 2009 Source  Google  Internal   2012 Implication: Coupons, Discounts, & Daily Deals will continue to play a big role during holiday. Test ad copy across all devices early to determine the most effective messaging. Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 23. Total Visits to Coupon Websites Consumers continue to seek out discounts Holiday Outlook 2012 Hitwise  Holiday  Overview.  June  2012.  
  • 24. Daily Deal Websites Achieve Long-Term Benefits Increase Customer Lifetime Value Strengthen Customer Loyalty Increase Customer Engagement Frequency 91% of online shoppers reported that they had already made another transaction with a merchant since taking advantage of an offer or plan to do so in the future. Shoppers visited daily deal sites an average of 10x/mth. They checked email offers an average of 17x/mth. 40% of deal redeemers are already frequent customers. Holiday Outlook 2012 Marketaire  Daily  Deals  Shoppers  2011.  Foresee  Results  Research  White  Papers  Daily  Deal  Commentary  2012.  
  • 25. Total Visits to Flash Sale Websites Traffic peaked during the week of Cyber Monday Websites   Visits  Share   12/3/11   Visits  Share   12/4/10   Change                                         (%  Points)   Zulily   15.66%   8.48%   7.18   One  Kings  Lane   9.41%   2.85%   6.57   Totsy   6.60%   0.77%   5.83   My  Habit   3.72%   0.00%   3.72   Fab   1.75%   0.00%   1.75   HAUTELOOK   11.56%   10.00%   1.56   woot   1.48%   0.00%   1.48   Lot18   0.98%   0.015%   0.97   Jack  Threads   1.49%   0.68%   0.81   Joss  and  Main   0.69%   0.016%   0.68   Holiday Outlook 2012 Hitwise  Holiday  Overview.  June  2012.  
  • 26. Share of Visits to Flash Sales by Mosaic Groups Captured a more affluent shopper during holidays Holiday Outlook 2012 Hitwise  Holiday  Overview.  June  2012.   2012 Implication: Use Demographic Insights to Better Target Ads and Product Offers to Your Audience.
  • 27. Google Confidential and Proprietary 35% of Respondents Have Engaged in ‘Showrooming’ Source: comScore, “State of the US Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012,” May 2012 Who’s engaging in showrooming? •  35% of all respondents •  50% of respondents ages 25-34, the highest of any age group •  48% of tablet owners and 43% of smartphone owners •  43% of Milllennials ..and did they plan it? •  6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ say they originally planned to purchase in-store but changed their mind and instead bough online •  32% said they went to the store always intending to buy online Q: Have you ever “Showroomed” a product before purchasing? Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 28. Google Confidential and Proprietary Price was Biggest Driver for ‘Showrooming’ 72% 45% 24% 18% 17% 5% Price was better online Planned to buy online but wanted to see item(s) in person before ordering Item was out of stock at store Would rather have item shipped to home Was not convenient to buy in-person at the time Other Location, Location, Location Respondents living in urban areas were nearly twice as likely to choose this option vs. those living in suburban or rural areas. Q. Which of the following describe why you utilized showrooming? Source: comScore, “State of the US Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012,” May 2012 Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 29. Customize Your Messaging for Better Response Rate +80% of email marketers send the same content to all subscribers. However, consumers respond better when the email is more customized. Tips: •  Be Friendly: Include subscribers in the “friends and family” emails to make them feel special and valued. •  Get Social: link discounts to those that interact with your social pages. •  Be Empowering: Provide links to videos, discounts and promotions in your email and encourage your subscribers to share. source: comscore 2012 digital marketer report Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 30. Key Highlights: Consumer Expectations Have Risen 1.  Free Shipping Has Become the Standard •  Leverage a “Free Shipping” Offer to Acquire Search Traffic 2.  Consumers Will “Showroom” Online Products In-Store via Mobile Devices •  Mobilize & Localize Ad Campaigns to Reach Shoppers Anytime 3.  Consumers Will Be Expecting Deals & Hunting for Coupons •  Test Promotional Ad Copy Early to Determine Those Most Effective 4.  Consumers Expect You To Know Them •  Personalize Your Search, Display and Email Messaging Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 31. The 4-Screen Experience Will Continue to Change Consumer Shopping Behaviors
  • 32. The 4 Screen Experience: Always Armed with Information the lines between desktop and mobile continue to blur. –  each device fills a specific need, yet all compliment one another. –  devices are more portable and powerful than ever before we are in the age of the customer, not the retailer –  consumers demand specific products, and choose when & where to shop –  they often know more about your competition than your employees Source: IRCE Presentations 2012, Google Internal Data Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 33. As Technology Changes, Consumer Behavior Follows 12:00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM Hourly Distribution of Searches by Platform (Doesn’t reflect absolute traffic volume) Tablet Mobile Desktop source: source: Google Internal Data, 2011. % of each platform’s traffic shown hourly for one day. does not indicate absolute or relative traffic volumes. Razorfish/Yahoo, November 2011 Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 34. Holiday 2011: The Season of Mobile 14.6% of all online sessions on a retailer’s site were initiated from a mobile device. 200% Increase in mobile device sales December 2011 vs. 2010 (11% in 2011 vs. 5.5% in 2010) Over 6.5M New Smartphone Subscribers in December 2011, Making It the Highest Volume Month in Smartphone History Holiday Outlook 2012 Source:  IBM:  Mobile  Shopping  Doubles  Over   December  2011,  Reports  IBM.  Jan  10,  2012.    
  • 35. Google Confidential and Proprietary 25% 35% 20% 34% 40% 33% 80% 53% 36% 33% 37% 38% 51% 56% 56% 77% 64% 47% All 2012 Holiday Shoppers Shopped Online Using Smartphone Or Tablet 35 Mobile & tablet holiday shoppers shopped earlier and more frequently Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 36. Google Confidential and Proprietary Retailers Saw a More "mobilized" Holiday Shopper Last Season +173% Increase in Mobile Shopping on Xmas Day 9% Of online sales were conducted on Mobile phones 12% Of online visits to a retailer’s website were from mobile devices (+5% YoY) 36 Of last-minute gift and store locator searches came from mobile devices last holiday season 44% Source: IBM Benchmarking 2. http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/157983/ Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 37. 42% used more than one device at the same time 68% started on one device & continued on another Holiday Shoppers Used Their Devices Simultaneously 25% used more than one device to shop this year. Among those…   Source:  Google  &  Ipsos  Digital  Connec1ons  Study:  Life  of  the  Mobile-­‐PC  User  (January  2012).     Holiday Outlook 2012 2012 Implication: Create a Unified Message Across All Networks and Devices to Create Brand Awareness & Recognition Among Your Audience. Source: Google & Ipsos Digital Connections Study: Life of the Mobile-PC User (January 2012).
  • 38. Google Confidential and Proprietary 38 Shoppers Use Their Portable Devices for Many Reasons Source: Google & Ipsos Digital Connections Study: Life of the Mobile-PC User (January 2012). 70% 61% 61% 53% 46% 42% 77% 63% 65% 31% 49% 34% Read reviews Compare prices Compare product info Search a store’s inventory Look for discounts/promos Contact a retailer Holiday Outlook 2012 Smartphone Tablet 2012 Implication: Expand your mobile only campaigns to include both brand and product level ad groups. Be a top contender when the consumer is making purchasing decisions via mobile devices.
  • 39. Google Confidential and Proprietary 39 A Well-Designed Mobile Shopping Site is Critical for Holiday Success won’t recommend business with poorly designed mobile site 57% have turned to a competitor’s site after a bad mobile experience 40% Source: Compuware, 2012 - http://www.digby.com/mobile-industry-resources/mobile-industry-statistics/ BEFORE AFTER 1-800-FLOWERS Optimized mobile site to increase conversions Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 40. Google Confidential and Proprietary Smartphone and tablet shoppers used a combination of apps & websites 40 57% % of tablet shoppers used apps & websites 69% % of smartphone shoppers used apps & websites Source: Google & Ipsos Digital Connections Study: Life of the Mobile-PC User (January 2012). Holiday Outlook 2012 2012 Implication: Leverage Mobile Only Campaigns’ Ad Text to Promote Downloads of Your App or Direct Users to a Mobile Website for an Optimized Experience.
  • 41. Google Confidential and Proprietary Holiday shoppers consistently watched product videos across devices 41 75% 49% 49% 36% 36% Product reviews/ratings Product demo Informational (e.g., features, uses, etc.) Videos from retailers Videos from electronic manufacturers/brands Source: Google & Ipsos Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012) Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 42. Connect with Consumers When They Are Engaged While watching TV….. checked email 57% visited a social networking site 44% looked up product information for a TV ad they saw 19% looked up coupons & deals related to a tv ad they saw 16% Holiday Outlook 2012 Ad Age - TV’s Upfront Pitch Shows Social Media Traction. May 2012
  • 43. Google Confidential and Proprietary 43 Key Highlights: The 4-Screen Experience Will Change Consumer Shopping 1.  The Lines Between Mobile and Desktop Continue to Blur •  A Detailed Mobile Strategy is Essential This Holiday. 2.  Consumers Start Shopping On One Device and Finish On Another •  Be Found Anywhere. Anytime: Create a Unified Message Across Devices 3.  Consumers Download Apps & Select Mobile Only Websites for Ease of Use •  Create a Mobile Optimized Site; Advertise on Downloaded Apps. 4.  TV and Online Join Forces •  Create an Integrated Strategy Across Traditional and Online Media Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 44. Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive
  • 45. Pure Play Online Retailers Brick & Mortar Retailers The Playing Field is Changing as Brick & Mortar Retailers are Competing on the Same Terms as Pure Play 2012 Implication: Bid aggressively to maintain top ad rank and maintain category visit share. Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 46. Game Changers: Retailers Make Early Announcements That Will Impact Holiday Strategy Holiday Outlook 2012 Amazon  to  Offer  Same  Day  Delivery:  Will  It  Change  the  Way  You  Shop?  Yahoo  Finance.  July  2012.     Macy’s  Using  Retail  Stores  as  Distribu1on  Centers.  May  2012.  Ebay  Launches  New  Fashion  Site.  Digital  Trends.  April  2012.    
  • 47. health & beauty household commodities apparel & accessories fashion & luxury home grocery The Amazon Effect They currently get 2 out of every 5 visits to the Internet Retailer Top 500; spreading model to all verticals Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 48. Macy’s Executes Progressive Promotions in 2011 Retailer Integrates It’s Online and Offline Promotional Strategies 2011 2012 Implication: Save a portion of your budget to compete with unexpected promotions from competitors. “With their newest digital solutions they continue to harness some of the key strengths that Amazon used to exclusively hold…..they are finding ways to turn what could be seen as a limitation of a bricks and mortar location into a strength that will continue to position them as a leader and first stop for shopping.” - Scott Thaler, EVP Zimmer Advertising telling Forbes Launches Aggressive Weekly Online Only Promotions Starting the Week of Halloween Promotions Varied Between Departments (Apparel, Home Furnishings, Kitchen, etc) 2012 Holiday Outlook 2012 Macy’s  2.0  Sales  Strategy  Puts  the  Pedal  to  the  Metal  In  Digital.  May  2012.    
  • 49. Home Improvement Giants Are Scared, Rushing to Ramp Up Online Presence “we know we are behind folks like Amazon. we’ve put a stake in the ground. we want to catch up and get ahead. we certainly are not going to lose share” 220,000 à 3,100,000 SKUs (direct result of commitment to the web) Holiday Outlook 2012 Source: MarketWatch: Largest Home Improvement Retailer Online Channel Internet Sales. August 2011; Internet Retailer: Web Grows 70%, Lowes. 2011.
  • 50. Key Highlights: Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive 1.  The Playing Field Has Leveled •  Know Your Competition – Big Box Players Are Now Aggressively Competing Against Specialty Retailers 2.  Early Announcements from Major Retailers Could Change Holiday Strategy •  Amazon & Macy’s Challenge Industry With Shipping Efficiencies 3.  Expect Retailers to Have Aggressive Promotions Before Black Friday •  Be Ready to Compete During Big Box Retailer Promotional Periods 4.  In-Store Holiday Merchandising Starts Early •  Be Prepared for Early Online Shoppers Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 51. Success Will Depend on How Early You Launch
  • 53. Be Relevant. Recommendation 1 Pre-Holiday Prep: Utilize All Search Ad Formats to Gain Complete Coverage 2 Be Discovered Early When Consumers Are Researching Gift Ideas 3 Customize Holiday Ad Text: Personalize the Experience Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 54. Pre-Holiday Preparation Be Relevant: Maximize All Opportunities to Engage with the Shopper Now Product Listing Ads Sitelinks Ad Extensions Android  Phone  |  BestBuy.com   www.bestbuy.com   Save  Instantly  On  Android  With  No  Mail  Rebates  at  BestBuy!     Kari  Clark,  Chris1an  Oestlien,  +1’d  this  page   +20% CTR for 2-line sitelinks +30% CTR for 3-line sitelinks Able to show on Google Search Results & Google Images Visually Reach Shoppers as they Search Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 55. Mobile & Tablet Only Campaigns Speak the language of the mobile user. Check Bids & Budgets Be prepared for increased competition during peak season Keyword Coverage Be part of the consumer’s consideration at all stages General:     Shoes,  Women’s  Shoes     Specific:     Asiacs  Women’s  Running  Shoes     Oct        Nov          Dec   Holiday Outlook 2012 Pre-Holiday Preparation Be Relevant: Maximize All Opportunities to Engage with the Shopper Now
  • 56. Be Relevant During the Discovery Stage Over 1/3 of Holiday Searches Occur Before Halloween Holiday Outlook 2012 0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   Indexed  Queries   Indexed  Queries  for  “Children’s  Toys”  Keywords  on  Google  Search   January  2010  –  January  2012   Recommendation: Use Remarketing to Capture Shoppers That Researched Early, Then Serve Ads To Them During Peak Season Google Internal Data.
  • 57. Customize Your Ad Messaging with Remarketing Consumers Want to Feel Valued & Understood Holiday Outlook 2012 Recommendation: Update Your Text and Display Ads with More Personalized Messaging. Dynamic Remarketing Order  Today  for  Free  Shipping!   Static Remarketing Running  Shoes  Discount   Come  back  &  view  our  new   sale  on  running  shoes!   zappos.com/running  
  • 58. Be Relevant: Recommendations Holiday Outlook 2012 Recommendation Device Investment Return Launch Date Examples: Mobile Only Campaigns for Product X, Y, Z $20K $60K 11/1 Promote Your New Tablet Optimized Interface in Your Search Ad Text $10K $30K 11/1 TV Campaign to Promote Black Friday Sale on Products X, Y and Z $100K $200K 11/1 Keyword Expansion on all Search Desktop and Mobile Campaigns $25K $60K 11/1
  • 60. Be Found. Action Items 1 Be Anywhere, Anytime. Utilize All Search Ad Formats to Gain Complete Coverage 2 Launch Campaigns Early in the Season When Consumers Are Hunting for Bargains 3 Continue to Run Broad Keywords Late in the Season, as Undecided Shoppers are Just Starting to Search 4 Keep the Lights on After December 25th - shoppers will continue to buy! Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 61. Be Anywhere, Anytime Mobile is a Must Have This Holiday Season Recommendation: Develop a specific “Go-to-Market strategy” for Mobile and Tablet Devices that Allows Your Consumer to Reach You at All Times. Separate Mobile and Tablet Campaigns from Search to Gain Control of Bid Adjustments at the Device Level Feature Ad Call-to-Actions that Highlight Your Mobile or Tablet Optimized Websites. Serve Rich Media Ads Through Ad Mob to Reach App Users Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 62. Differentiate to Win the In-Store Shopper Online Source:  Google  “Our  mobile  planet”  Ipsos  MediaCT  and  TNS,  May  2012   31% of U.S. smartphone owners have researched or purchased products from their device in a store Holiday Outlook 2012 Recommendation: Promote Compelling Offers to Deal-Seeking In-Store Shoppers Through Mobile Search Ads
  • 63. Update Your Text & Image Ads to Feature Current Incentives Reach the Bargain-Hunters This Holiday “Free Shipping” “25% off Coupon” Prepare for Earlier & More Aggressive Promotions Optimize Mobile Campaigns to Reach Shoppers as They Browse In-Store Thanksgiving Store Openings Pre-Black Friday Deals & Discounts +14% of searches initiate from a mobile device Holiday Outlook 2012 Source: Google & Ipsos Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
  • 64. ? “Undecided Shoppers” are looking for: 1.  gift guidance & direction 2.  fast turn-around time 3.  convenience & ease Holiday gift baskets Holiday gifts for him Holiday address labels Holiday decor Unique holiday gifts Holiday gifts Cheap holiday gifts Holiday table settings Gift Ideas for Women Gift Ideas Christmas Gifts Top Search Terms Two Weeks Prior to Christmas Undecided Shoppers Are Looking for Advice Recommendation: Bid Aggressively on Broad Gifting/Holiday Keywords During the Final Weeks of December Holiday Outlook 2012 Source: Google Internal Data
  • 65. 19%   15%   32%   6%   17%   3%   2%   1%   4%   8%   1%   39%   28%   6%   3%   7%   Before Thanksgiving November Early/Mid December Boxing week After Christmas/Holiday Season Start Finish 5% of shoppers start and 10% finish their shopping after the Christmas season Keep the Lights on After December 25th Holiday Outlook 2012 Source: Google & Ipsos Post-Holiday Shopping Study (January 2012)
  • 66. Google Confidential and Proprietary 66 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% 10/22 10/29 11/5 11/12 11/19 11/26 12/3 12/10 12/17 12/24 12/31 1/7 Amazon Target Best Buy JCP Macys Walmart Share of Weekly Visits, 2011 Amazon Kept the Lights On, But Many Traditional Retailers Did Not Source: Hitwise Recommendation: Keep Serving Ads After December 25th. Shoppers are Using Monetary Gifts and Gift Cards, as Well as Taking Advantage of Post-Holiday Sales
  • 67. Holiday Outlook 2012 Be Found: Recommendations Recommendation Device Investment Return Launch Date Examples: Mobile Only Campaigns for Product X, Y, Z $20K $60K 11/1 Promote Your New Tablet Optimized Interface in Your Search Ad Text $10K $30K 11/1 TV Campaign to Promote Black Friday Sale on Products X, Y and Z $100K $200K 11/1 Keyword Expansion on all Search Desktop and Mobile Campaigns $25K $60K 11/1
  • 69. Be Trusted. Recommendation 1 Leverage Search & Display Ads to Become an Engaging Brand That Shopper’s Recognize 2 Use Interactive Media (Video, TV, Social) to Gain Consumer Awareness and Confidence 3 Highlight Your Superior Shopping Experience with Google Trusted Stores Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 70. Price Point Trust Quality Brand Equity Holiday Outlook 2012 Retailers Must Differentiate with Other Factors It’s Not Just a Price War Anymore
  • 71. Holiday Outlook 2012 How ShoeDazzle Built Their Brand Recommendation: Use Interactive Media to Tell Consumers About Your Brand & Your Business
  • 72. Use Consumer Engagement Data to Enhance Your Strategy Gmail Message Ads YouTube In-Video Overlays December 2011 Upstream Report: Shoedazzle.com Hitwise  Upstream  Report.  2012   Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 73. TV & Online Join Forces: Engaging Consumers Across Screens Ad Age - TV’s Upfront Pitch Shows Social Media Traction. May 2012 NBC Universal already has network and show profiles on Pinterest. CW partnered with Microsoft’s Bing to create a “Twitter party” in which “Vampire Diaries” actresses chat with fans. ESPN’s working with Twitter to start conversations around big sporting events
  • 74. Google Confidential and Proprietary 74 Google Confidential and Proprietary 74 Unified Strategies: Merging Online & Offline Use Google TV to Drive Traffic & Develop Brand Awareness for Your Website. Proposed Launch Dates: {INSERT HERE} –  Investment: $xx,xxx - Return: xx Impressions, $0.00 CPM Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 75. Reporting is available down to the target level – see which networks are delivering results Create Awareness with TV Take Advantage of New Web Attribution Features Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 76. 39%ofsmartphone shoppersusedvideos whileresearchingand shopping– ofwhich77%watchfor morethan10minutes. Source: Compete Survey 2011 Holiday Outlook 2012 Recommendation: 1. Produce Videos to Showcase Product Demonstrations, Company Uniqueness, Customer Reviews, etc. 2. Create Display Ads to Overlay on Video Watch and Search Pages Mobile Matters
  • 77. Use Video and Display Formats to Engage & Entertain TrueView In-Search Call-to-Action Overlays TrueView In-Display Brand Channel 27% of YouTube sessions contain at least one search Reach new shoppers through interest categories on YouTube and the Display Network Shoppers can click directly to your site Engage customers through a custom social experience and community Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 78. Differentiate from the Competition: Highlight Your Superior Shopping Experience Google Trusted Stores is a badging program that can improve your conversion rate and average order size. Open sign-ups at: google.com/trustedstores Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 79. Recommendation Device Investment Return Launch Date Examples: Mobile Only Campaigns for Product X, Y, Z $20K $60K 11/1 Promote Your New Tablet Optimized Interface in Your Search Ad Text $10K $30K 11/1 TV Campaign to Promote Black Friday Sale on Products X, Y and Z $100K $200K 11/1 Keyword Expansion on all Search Desktop and Mobile Campaigns $25K $60K 11/1 Holiday Outlook 2012 Be Trusted: Recommendations
  • 81. {Insert Client Name}’s Customized Holiday Recommendations Recommendation Investment Return Be Relevant $20K $60K Be Found $10K $30K Be Trusted $100K $200K Total Holiday Strategy $25K $60K Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 82. Design Your Holiday Strategy Around 5 Key Insights eCommerce Growth Will Return to Pre-Recession Levels Consumer Expectations Will Rise The 4-Screen Experience Will Continue to Change Consumer Shopping Behaviors Competition Will Become Even More Aggressive Success Will Depend on How Early You Launch 5 INSIGHTS Holiday Outlook 2012
  • 83. the season of the consumer be early. be aggressive. be merry.