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BONDS & THEIR
VALUATION
CHARAK RAY
LIBRA.CHARAK@GMAIL.COM
Content
 Key Features of Bonds
 Bond Valuation
 Measuring Yield
 Assessing Risk
Bonds and Their Features
Basic Terms
Par Value Coupon Rate
Maturity Bond Ratings
Bond -- A long-term debt instrument with
a final maturity generally being 10 years
or more.
Types of Long-Term Debt
Instruments
 Investors look to the earning power of the firm as their
primary security.
 Investors receive some protection by the restrictions
imposed in the bond indenture.
Debenture -- A long-term, Secured/Unsecured
debt instrument.
Types of Long-Term Debt
Instruments
 In this case, subordinated debenture holders rank behind
debenture holders but ahead of preferred and common
stockholders in the event of liquidation.
 Frequently, the security is convertible into common stock to
lower the yield required by subordinated debenture holders
(often less than regular debentures).
Subordinated Debenture -- A long-term,
unsecured/secured debt instrument with a lower
claim on assets and income than other classes of
debt; known as junior debt.
Types of Long-Term Debt
Instruments
 These are bonds with a rating of Ba (Moody's) or lower.
 Principal investors are pension funds, high-yield bond
mutual funds, and some individual investors.
 Liquidity varies depending on investor sentiments.
 Ex: 20Year DDB of Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam Bond
(18.5% Return).
Junk Bond -- A high-risk, high-yield (often
unsecured) bond rated below investment grade.
Serial Bonds
 For example, a $10 million issue of serial bonds might
have $500,000 of predetermined bonds maturing
each year for 20 years.
 Investors are able to choose the maturity that best
fits their needs (wider investor appeal).
 Reliance Industry has issued such bonds in past.
Serial Bonds -- An issue of bonds with different
maturities, as distinguished from an issue
where all bonds have identical maturities (term
bonds).
Other Types (Features) of
Bonds
 Convertible bond – may be exchanged for common stock of the firm,
at the holder’s option.
 Warrant – long-term option to buy a stated number of shares of
common stock at a specified price.
 Bond with Call Feature:
 Zero Coupon Bond/Deep Discount Bond
 Floating Rate Bonds- MIBOR (Inter bank Call money rate) + Fixed %
Call Provision
 Not all bonds are callable. In periods of low
interest (hence, low coupon) rates, firms are more
likely to issue noncallable bonds.
 When a bond is callable, the call price is usually
above the par value of the bond and often
decreases over time.
Call Provision -- A feature in an indenture that
permits the issuer to repurchase securities at a
fixed price (or series of fixed prices) before
maturity; also called call feature.
Call Price
 For example, the call price for the first year might
equal the bond par value plus one-year’s interest.
 According to when they can be exercised, call
provisions can be either immediate or deferred.
 The call provision provides financing flexibility for the
firm as conditions change.
Call Price -- The price at which a security with a
call provision can be purchased by the issuer
prior to the security’s maturity.
Effect of a Call Provision
 Allows issuer to refund the bond issue if rates decline
(helps the issuer, but hurts the investor).
 Borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require
more, for callable bonds.
 Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call
premium.
Key Features of a Bond
 Par value – face amount of the bond, which
is paid at maturity (assume $1,000).
 Coupon interest rate – stated interest rate (generally fixed) paid by
the issuer. Multiply by par value to get dollar payment of interest.
 Maturity date – years until the bond must be repaid.
 Issue date – when the bond was issued.
 Yield to maturity – rate of return earned on
a bond held until maturity (also called the “promised yield”).
The Value of Financial Assets
N
N
2
2
1
1
r)(1
CF
...
r)(1
CF
r)(1
CF
Value






0 1 2 N
r%
CF1 CFNCF2Value
...
What is the value of a 10-year, 10%
annual coupon bond, if rd = 10%?
$1,000V
$385.54$38.55...$90.91V
(1.10)
$1,000
(1.10)
$100
...
(1.10)
$100
V
B
B
10101B



0 1 2 N
r%
100 100 + 1,000100VB = ?
...
Using a Financial Calculator to
Value
a Bond This bond has a $1,000 lump sum (the par value) due at maturity (t
= 10), and annual $100 coupon payments beginning at t = 1 and
continuing through t = 10, the price of the bond can be found by
solving for the PV of these cash flows.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
10 10 100 1000
-1000
The same company also has 10-year bonds
outstanding with the same risk but a 13% annual
coupon rate
 This bond has an annual coupon payment of $130. Since the risk is
the same the bond has the same yield to maturity as the previous
bond (10%). In this case the bond sells at a premium because the
coupon rate exceeds the yield to maturity.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
10 10 130 1000
-1184.34
The same company also has 10-year bonds
outstanding with the same risk but a 7% annual
coupon rate
 This bond has an annual coupon payment of $70. Since the risk is
the same the bond has the same yield to maturity as the previous
bonds (10%). In this case, the bond sells at a discount because the
coupon rate is less than the yield to maturity.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
10 10 70 1000
-815.66
Changes in Bond Value over
Time
 What would happen to the value of these three bonds if the
required rate of return remained at 10%?
Years
to Maturity
1,184
1,000
816
10
13% coupon rate
7% coupon rate
10% coupon rate
VB
5 0
Bond Values over Time
 At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par
value.
 If rd remains constant:
 The value of a premium bond would decrease over time,
until it reached $1,000.
 The value of a discount bond would increase over time,
until it reached $1,000.
 A value of a par bond stays at $1,000.
What is the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon,
$1,000 par value bond, selling for $887?
10
d
10
d
1
d
N
d
N
d
1
d
B
)r(1
1,000
)r(1
90
...
)r(1
90
$887
)r(1
M
)r(1
INT
...
)r(1
INT
V












 Must find the rd that solves this model.
Using a Financial Calculator to
Solve for the YTM
 Solving for I/YR, the YTM of this bond is 10.91%. This bond sells at
a discount, because YTM > coupon rate.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
10
10.91
90 1000- 887
Find YTM If the Bond Price is $1,134.20
 Solving for I/YR, the YTM of this bond is 7.08%. This bond sells at a
premium, because YTM < coupon rate.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
10
7.08
90 1000-1134.2
Definitions













CGY
Expected
CY
ExpectedYTMreturntotalExpected
priceBeginning
priceinChange
(CGY)yieldgainsCapital
priceCurrent
paymentcouponAnnual
(CY)eldCurrent yi
An Example:
Current and Capital Gains Yield
 Find the current yield and the capital gains yield for a
10-year, 9% annual coupon bond that sells for $887,
and has a face value of $1,000.
%15.101015.0
887$
90$
eldCurrent yi


Calculating Capital Gains
Yield
YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield
Could also find the expected price one year from now and
divide the change in price by the beginning price, which
gives the same answer.
%76.0
10.15%10.91%
CYYTMCGY



What is interest rate (or price) risk? Does a 1-year
or 10-year bond have more interest rate risk?
 Interest rate risk is the concern that rising rd will cause the value of
a bond to fall.
rd 1-year Change 10-year Change
5% $1,048 $1,386
10% 1,000 1,000
15% 956 749
 The 10-year bond is more sensitive to
interest rate changes, and hence has more
interest rate risk.
+ 4.8%
– 4.4%
+38.6%
–25.1%
Illustrating Interest Rate Risk
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0 5 10 15 20
Value($)
YTM (%)
10-Year Bond
1-Year Bond
What is reinvestment rate
risk?
 Reinvestment rate risk is the concern that rd will fall,
and future CFs will have to be reinvested at lower
rates, hence reducing income.
EXAMPLE: Suppose you just won $500,000 playing the
lottery. You intend to invest the money .
Reinvestment Rate Risk
Example
 You may invest in either a 10-year bond or a series of
ten 1-year bonds. Both 10-year and 1-year bonds
currently yield 10%.
 If you choose the 1-year bond strategy:
 After Year 1, you receive $50,000 in income and have
$500,000 to reinvest. But, if 1-year rates fall to 3%, your
annual income would fall to $15,000.
 If you choose the 10-year bond strategy:
 You can lock in a 10% interest rate, and $50,000 annual
income for 10 years, assuming the bond is not callable.
Conclusions about Interest Rate and
Reinvestment Rate Risk
 CONCLUSION: Nothing is riskless!
Short-term
AND/OR
High-coupon
Bonds
Long-term
AND/OR
Low-coupon
Bonds
Interest rate risk Low High
Reinvestment rate risk High Low
Semiannual Bonds
1. Multiply years by 2:
Number of periods = 2N
2. Divide nominal rate by 2:
Periodic rate (I/YR) = rd/2
3. Divide annual coupon by 2:
PMT = Annual coupon/2
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
2N rd/2 cpn/2 OKOK
What is the value of a 10-year, 10%
semiannual coupon bond, if rd = 13%?
1. Multiply years by 2:
N = 2 x 10 = 20.
2. Divide nominal rate by 2:
I/YR = 13/2 = 6.5.
3. Divide annual coupon by 2:
PMT = 100/2 = 50.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
20 6.5 50 1000
- 834.72
Would you prefer to buy a 10-year, 10% annual
coupon bond or a 10-year, 10% semiannual
coupon bond, all else equal?
10.25%1
2
0.10
11
M
r
1EFF%
2M
NOM













The semiannual bond’s effective rate is:
10.25% > 10% (the annual bond’s effective rate), so you would prefer the semiannual bond.
If the proper price for this semiannual bond is
$1,000, what would be the proper price for the
annual coupon bond?
 The semiannual coupon bond has an effective rate of 10.25%, and
the annual coupon bond should earn the same EAR. At these
prices, the annual and semiannual coupon bonds are in equilibrium,
as they earn the same effective return.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
10 10.25 100 1000
- 984.80
A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond selling for
$1,135.90 can be called in 4 years for $1,050, what is its
yield to call (YTC)?
 The bond’s yield to maturity can be determined to be 8%. Solving
for the YTC is identical to solving for YTM, except the time to call is
used for N and the call premium is FV.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
N I/YR PMTPV FV
8
3.568
50 1050- 1135.90
Yield to Call
 3.568% represents the periodic semiannual yield to
call.
 YTCNOM = rNOM = 3.568% x 2 = 7.137% is the rate that a
broker would quote.
 The effective yield to call can be calculated.
YTCEFF = (1.03568)2 – 1 = 7.26%
If you bought these callable bonds, would you
be more likely to earn the YTM or YTC?
 The coupon rate = 10% compared to YTC = 7.137%.
The firm could raise money by selling new bonds
which pay 7.137%.
 Could replace bonds paying $100 per year with bonds
paying only $71.37 per year.
 Investors should expect a call, and to earn the YTC of
7.137%, rather than the YTM of 8%.
When is a call more likely to
occur?
 In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then (1)
coupon > rd, so (2) a call is more likely.
 So, expect to earn:
 YTC on premium bonds.
 YTM on par and discount bonds.
Default Risk
 If an issuer defaults, investors receive less than the
promised return. Therefore, the expected return on
corporate and municipal bonds is less than the
promised return.
 Influenced by the issuer’s financial strength and the
terms of the bond contract.
Evaluating Default Risk:
Bond Ratings
Investment Grade Junk Bonds
Moody’s Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa C
S & P AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC C
 Bond ratings are designed to reflect the probability of a bond
issue going into default.
Factors Affecting Default Risk and
Bond Ratings
 Financial performance
 Debt ratio
 TIE ratio
 Current ratio
 Qualitative factors: Bond contract provisions
 Secured vs. Unsecured debt
 Senior vs. subordinated debt
 Guarantee and sinking fund provisions
 Debt maturity
Other Factors Affecting Default
Risk
 Earnings stability
 Regulatory environment
 Potential antitrust or product liabilities
 Pension liabilities
 Potential labor problems
THANK YOU…

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BONDS

  • 1. BONDS & THEIR VALUATION CHARAK RAY LIBRA.CHARAK@GMAIL.COM
  • 2. Content  Key Features of Bonds  Bond Valuation  Measuring Yield  Assessing Risk
  • 3. Bonds and Their Features Basic Terms Par Value Coupon Rate Maturity Bond Ratings Bond -- A long-term debt instrument with a final maturity generally being 10 years or more.
  • 4. Types of Long-Term Debt Instruments  Investors look to the earning power of the firm as their primary security.  Investors receive some protection by the restrictions imposed in the bond indenture. Debenture -- A long-term, Secured/Unsecured debt instrument.
  • 5. Types of Long-Term Debt Instruments  In this case, subordinated debenture holders rank behind debenture holders but ahead of preferred and common stockholders in the event of liquidation.  Frequently, the security is convertible into common stock to lower the yield required by subordinated debenture holders (often less than regular debentures). Subordinated Debenture -- A long-term, unsecured/secured debt instrument with a lower claim on assets and income than other classes of debt; known as junior debt.
  • 6. Types of Long-Term Debt Instruments  These are bonds with a rating of Ba (Moody's) or lower.  Principal investors are pension funds, high-yield bond mutual funds, and some individual investors.  Liquidity varies depending on investor sentiments.  Ex: 20Year DDB of Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam Bond (18.5% Return). Junk Bond -- A high-risk, high-yield (often unsecured) bond rated below investment grade.
  • 7. Serial Bonds  For example, a $10 million issue of serial bonds might have $500,000 of predetermined bonds maturing each year for 20 years.  Investors are able to choose the maturity that best fits their needs (wider investor appeal).  Reliance Industry has issued such bonds in past. Serial Bonds -- An issue of bonds with different maturities, as distinguished from an issue where all bonds have identical maturities (term bonds).
  • 8. Other Types (Features) of Bonds  Convertible bond – may be exchanged for common stock of the firm, at the holder’s option.  Warrant – long-term option to buy a stated number of shares of common stock at a specified price.  Bond with Call Feature:  Zero Coupon Bond/Deep Discount Bond  Floating Rate Bonds- MIBOR (Inter bank Call money rate) + Fixed %
  • 9. Call Provision  Not all bonds are callable. In periods of low interest (hence, low coupon) rates, firms are more likely to issue noncallable bonds.  When a bond is callable, the call price is usually above the par value of the bond and often decreases over time. Call Provision -- A feature in an indenture that permits the issuer to repurchase securities at a fixed price (or series of fixed prices) before maturity; also called call feature.
  • 10. Call Price  For example, the call price for the first year might equal the bond par value plus one-year’s interest.  According to when they can be exercised, call provisions can be either immediate or deferred.  The call provision provides financing flexibility for the firm as conditions change. Call Price -- The price at which a security with a call provision can be purchased by the issuer prior to the security’s maturity.
  • 11. Effect of a Call Provision  Allows issuer to refund the bond issue if rates decline (helps the issuer, but hurts the investor).  Borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require more, for callable bonds.  Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call premium.
  • 12. Key Features of a Bond  Par value – face amount of the bond, which is paid at maturity (assume $1,000).  Coupon interest rate – stated interest rate (generally fixed) paid by the issuer. Multiply by par value to get dollar payment of interest.  Maturity date – years until the bond must be repaid.  Issue date – when the bond was issued.  Yield to maturity – rate of return earned on a bond held until maturity (also called the “promised yield”).
  • 13. The Value of Financial Assets N N 2 2 1 1 r)(1 CF ... r)(1 CF r)(1 CF Value       0 1 2 N r% CF1 CFNCF2Value ...
  • 14. What is the value of a 10-year, 10% annual coupon bond, if rd = 10%? $1,000V $385.54$38.55...$90.91V (1.10) $1,000 (1.10) $100 ... (1.10) $100 V B B 10101B    0 1 2 N r% 100 100 + 1,000100VB = ? ...
  • 15. Using a Financial Calculator to Value a Bond This bond has a $1,000 lump sum (the par value) due at maturity (t = 10), and annual $100 coupon payments beginning at t = 1 and continuing through t = 10, the price of the bond can be found by solving for the PV of these cash flows. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 10 10 100 1000 -1000
  • 16. The same company also has 10-year bonds outstanding with the same risk but a 13% annual coupon rate  This bond has an annual coupon payment of $130. Since the risk is the same the bond has the same yield to maturity as the previous bond (10%). In this case the bond sells at a premium because the coupon rate exceeds the yield to maturity. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 10 10 130 1000 -1184.34
  • 17. The same company also has 10-year bonds outstanding with the same risk but a 7% annual coupon rate  This bond has an annual coupon payment of $70. Since the risk is the same the bond has the same yield to maturity as the previous bonds (10%). In this case, the bond sells at a discount because the coupon rate is less than the yield to maturity. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 10 10 70 1000 -815.66
  • 18. Changes in Bond Value over Time  What would happen to the value of these three bonds if the required rate of return remained at 10%? Years to Maturity 1,184 1,000 816 10 13% coupon rate 7% coupon rate 10% coupon rate VB 5 0
  • 19. Bond Values over Time  At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par value.  If rd remains constant:  The value of a premium bond would decrease over time, until it reached $1,000.  The value of a discount bond would increase over time, until it reached $1,000.  A value of a par bond stays at $1,000.
  • 20. What is the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1,000 par value bond, selling for $887? 10 d 10 d 1 d N d N d 1 d B )r(1 1,000 )r(1 90 ... )r(1 90 $887 )r(1 M )r(1 INT ... )r(1 INT V              Must find the rd that solves this model.
  • 21. Using a Financial Calculator to Solve for the YTM  Solving for I/YR, the YTM of this bond is 10.91%. This bond sells at a discount, because YTM > coupon rate. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 10 10.91 90 1000- 887
  • 22. Find YTM If the Bond Price is $1,134.20  Solving for I/YR, the YTM of this bond is 7.08%. This bond sells at a premium, because YTM < coupon rate. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 10 7.08 90 1000-1134.2
  • 24. An Example: Current and Capital Gains Yield  Find the current yield and the capital gains yield for a 10-year, 9% annual coupon bond that sells for $887, and has a face value of $1,000. %15.101015.0 887$ 90$ eldCurrent yi  
  • 25. Calculating Capital Gains Yield YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield Could also find the expected price one year from now and divide the change in price by the beginning price, which gives the same answer. %76.0 10.15%10.91% CYYTMCGY   
  • 26. What is interest rate (or price) risk? Does a 1-year or 10-year bond have more interest rate risk?  Interest rate risk is the concern that rising rd will cause the value of a bond to fall. rd 1-year Change 10-year Change 5% $1,048 $1,386 10% 1,000 1,000 15% 956 749  The 10-year bond is more sensitive to interest rate changes, and hence has more interest rate risk. + 4.8% – 4.4% +38.6% –25.1%
  • 27. Illustrating Interest Rate Risk 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 0 5 10 15 20 Value($) YTM (%) 10-Year Bond 1-Year Bond
  • 28. What is reinvestment rate risk?  Reinvestment rate risk is the concern that rd will fall, and future CFs will have to be reinvested at lower rates, hence reducing income. EXAMPLE: Suppose you just won $500,000 playing the lottery. You intend to invest the money .
  • 29. Reinvestment Rate Risk Example  You may invest in either a 10-year bond or a series of ten 1-year bonds. Both 10-year and 1-year bonds currently yield 10%.  If you choose the 1-year bond strategy:  After Year 1, you receive $50,000 in income and have $500,000 to reinvest. But, if 1-year rates fall to 3%, your annual income would fall to $15,000.  If you choose the 10-year bond strategy:  You can lock in a 10% interest rate, and $50,000 annual income for 10 years, assuming the bond is not callable.
  • 30. Conclusions about Interest Rate and Reinvestment Rate Risk  CONCLUSION: Nothing is riskless! Short-term AND/OR High-coupon Bonds Long-term AND/OR Low-coupon Bonds Interest rate risk Low High Reinvestment rate risk High Low
  • 31. Semiannual Bonds 1. Multiply years by 2: Number of periods = 2N 2. Divide nominal rate by 2: Periodic rate (I/YR) = rd/2 3. Divide annual coupon by 2: PMT = Annual coupon/2 INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 2N rd/2 cpn/2 OKOK
  • 32. What is the value of a 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond, if rd = 13%? 1. Multiply years by 2: N = 2 x 10 = 20. 2. Divide nominal rate by 2: I/YR = 13/2 = 6.5. 3. Divide annual coupon by 2: PMT = 100/2 = 50. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 20 6.5 50 1000 - 834.72
  • 33. Would you prefer to buy a 10-year, 10% annual coupon bond or a 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond, all else equal? 10.25%1 2 0.10 11 M r 1EFF% 2M NOM              The semiannual bond’s effective rate is: 10.25% > 10% (the annual bond’s effective rate), so you would prefer the semiannual bond.
  • 34. If the proper price for this semiannual bond is $1,000, what would be the proper price for the annual coupon bond?  The semiannual coupon bond has an effective rate of 10.25%, and the annual coupon bond should earn the same EAR. At these prices, the annual and semiannual coupon bonds are in equilibrium, as they earn the same effective return. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 10 10.25 100 1000 - 984.80
  • 35. A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond selling for $1,135.90 can be called in 4 years for $1,050, what is its yield to call (YTC)?  The bond’s yield to maturity can be determined to be 8%. Solving for the YTC is identical to solving for YTM, except the time to call is used for N and the call premium is FV. INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMTPV FV 8 3.568 50 1050- 1135.90
  • 36. Yield to Call  3.568% represents the periodic semiannual yield to call.  YTCNOM = rNOM = 3.568% x 2 = 7.137% is the rate that a broker would quote.  The effective yield to call can be calculated. YTCEFF = (1.03568)2 – 1 = 7.26%
  • 37. If you bought these callable bonds, would you be more likely to earn the YTM or YTC?  The coupon rate = 10% compared to YTC = 7.137%. The firm could raise money by selling new bonds which pay 7.137%.  Could replace bonds paying $100 per year with bonds paying only $71.37 per year.  Investors should expect a call, and to earn the YTC of 7.137%, rather than the YTM of 8%.
  • 38. When is a call more likely to occur?  In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then (1) coupon > rd, so (2) a call is more likely.  So, expect to earn:  YTC on premium bonds.  YTM on par and discount bonds.
  • 39. Default Risk  If an issuer defaults, investors receive less than the promised return. Therefore, the expected return on corporate and municipal bonds is less than the promised return.  Influenced by the issuer’s financial strength and the terms of the bond contract.
  • 40. Evaluating Default Risk: Bond Ratings Investment Grade Junk Bonds Moody’s Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa C S & P AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC C  Bond ratings are designed to reflect the probability of a bond issue going into default.
  • 41. Factors Affecting Default Risk and Bond Ratings  Financial performance  Debt ratio  TIE ratio  Current ratio  Qualitative factors: Bond contract provisions  Secured vs. Unsecured debt  Senior vs. subordinated debt  Guarantee and sinking fund provisions  Debt maturity
  • 42. Other Factors Affecting Default Risk  Earnings stability  Regulatory environment  Potential antitrust or product liabilities  Pension liabilities  Potential labor problems