1. Erasmus Centre for
Neuroeconomics
How to predict what individuals
will buy next
A short history of neuromarketing
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

2. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Ask them!
– Focus groups, polls, surveys, …
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

3. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Lab experiments, field experiments
– Observe them in situation and find out general
rules of behavior!
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

4. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Econometrics / time series analysis
=> Check what they did in the past and infer!
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

5. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Modeling
=> Make some basic hypothesis about how
individuals behave in general, and deduct from
there
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

6. Problems with individuals
• They are so specific
• They get influenced
• They are not logic
• They don’t understand who they are
• They are expensive
• They don’t scale up
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

7. Two new directions
Ask the brain! Ask the crowd!
(the neuro turn) (the digital turn)
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

8. Ask the crowds!
• “A crowd is anything that crashes Excel”
• Twitter, FB, Google, …
– Any data source which gives info on behavior at a
large scale.
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

9. Crowds are…
• “sincere” (are they?)
• representative (are they?)
• relatively inexpensive (really?)
• Scale up well (sure?)
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

10. Ask the brain!
• The brain doesn’t lie (or does it?)
• The brain is universal (is it?)
• The brain is measurable (easily?)
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

11. Ask the brain – how easy can it be?
• Major scientific paradigm shift
- Creates resistances, controversy, debates
Is it ok to drop “the individual” as the focus of analysis?
• Mix of competencies: neuro and social!
- not easy to create research groups that can be
good at both
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

12. Looking at the brain
where are we now in 2013?
• 1960s: the brain is a taboo in psychology
• 1970s: gets better, but not many ways to probe it
• 1980s: PET and fMRI!
• 1990s: Decade of the Brain
• 2000s: First results
• 2010s: Commercial applications take off
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management

13. A closer view on 2002-2012
a timeline of neuromarketing
=> With an answer to the question: can
neuromarketing help predict sales better?
http://www.clementlevallois.net/sandbox/timeline/index.html
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management