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HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI?
CPOSC 2019
Richard Everts
Co-Founder, CEO, Sugey
Founder, Lancaster AI
rich@richardeverts.com
All opinions are my own and not representative of my companies, organizations, or clients
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
MEANING AND ASSUMPTIONS
Human Level Originally Embodied
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
SIMILAR PROBLEM SPACE
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY – MACHINE REQUIREMENTS
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY – HUMAN REQUIREMENTS
Neocortex Sparse Info Distribution
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY - COMPARISON
25W
52,000 Hours
1,625 kWh
1920 CPUS
280 GPUs
~60,000+ kWh
35X+ the power taking 500X+ space
Can’t order a pizza
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY – COMING TRANSITION
Neuromorphic (Intel, IBM) – Up to 50X
Memresistor (Analog) – Unknown
Custom Chips
Not quantum
Spiking & Sparse
Networks
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
PHYSICAL MATERIALS – MACHINE VS BIO
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
PHYSICAL MATERIALS - BIOLOGICAL
‘
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
PHYSICAL MATERIALS – WHAT’S NEXT
Columbia University
Aslan Miriyev
Columbia Engineering
Augmentive Bionics
Neuralink
FB Brain Mouse
Replacement Parts
Artificial Stomach
Sijo Joseph
Agriculture Canada
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
TOO MANY COMPUTER SCIENTISTS IN AI
Maybe More Depth PsychologyLess Simulacra & Simulation
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
DEPTH PSYCHOLOGY IN AI?
Multiple Layers of
Consciousness
Thousand Minds
Theory
Creating sensor
meta-networks
via YOLO type
voting
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
DEPTH PSYCHOLOGY IN AI?
Alchemy
Symbolic
Representations
(GOFAI)
Malleable Time:
Training sets of
relational data
only
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
AN ANSWER - SUPERINTELLIGENCE
Ray Kurzweil, Elon Musk, Stuart Russell, Demis
Hassabis, Sam Harris, Nick Bostrom, David Chalmers,
Bart Selman, Jaan Tallinn and Max Tegmark.
9 Companies Control the majority of
worldwide AI Development
US: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and
Apple
China: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
AN ANSWER - TIMELINE
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Embodied
Simulacra
Achieved
Advanced
Augmentation
Achieved
Self-aware
Neo-Human Level AI:
Independent or Host
Simulacra
Transfer
Possible
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
THANK YOU
Sugey – Launching MVP soon
Lancaster AI – LancasterAI.com – Get on the list
ENJOY CPOSC 2019!

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How Close Are We to Human Level AI? CPOSC 2019, Richard Everts

  • 1. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 Richard Everts Co-Founder, CEO, Sugey Founder, Lancaster AI rich@richardeverts.com All opinions are my own and not representative of my companies, organizations, or clients
  • 2. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019
  • 3. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 MEANING AND ASSUMPTIONS Human Level Originally Embodied
  • 4. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 SIMILAR PROBLEM SPACE
  • 5. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY – MACHINE REQUIREMENTS
  • 6. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY – HUMAN REQUIREMENTS Neocortex Sparse Info Distribution
  • 7. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY - COMPARISON 25W 52,000 Hours 1,625 kWh 1920 CPUS 280 GPUs ~60,000+ kWh 35X+ the power taking 500X+ space Can’t order a pizza
  • 8. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 COMPUTATIONAL EFFICIENCY – COMING TRANSITION Neuromorphic (Intel, IBM) – Up to 50X Memresistor (Analog) – Unknown Custom Chips Not quantum Spiking & Sparse Networks
  • 9. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 PHYSICAL MATERIALS – MACHINE VS BIO
  • 10. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 PHYSICAL MATERIALS - BIOLOGICAL ‘
  • 11. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 PHYSICAL MATERIALS – WHAT’S NEXT Columbia University Aslan Miriyev Columbia Engineering Augmentive Bionics Neuralink FB Brain Mouse Replacement Parts Artificial Stomach Sijo Joseph Agriculture Canada
  • 12. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 TOO MANY COMPUTER SCIENTISTS IN AI Maybe More Depth PsychologyLess Simulacra & Simulation
  • 13. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 DEPTH PSYCHOLOGY IN AI? Multiple Layers of Consciousness Thousand Minds Theory Creating sensor meta-networks via YOLO type voting
  • 14. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 DEPTH PSYCHOLOGY IN AI? Alchemy Symbolic Representations (GOFAI) Malleable Time: Training sets of relational data only
  • 15. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 AN ANSWER - SUPERINTELLIGENCE Ray Kurzweil, Elon Musk, Stuart Russell, Demis Hassabis, Sam Harris, Nick Bostrom, David Chalmers, Bart Selman, Jaan Tallinn and Max Tegmark. 9 Companies Control the majority of worldwide AI Development US: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and Apple China: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.
  • 16. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 AN ANSWER - TIMELINE 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Embodied Simulacra Achieved Advanced Augmentation Achieved Self-aware Neo-Human Level AI: Independent or Host Simulacra Transfer Possible
  • 17. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO HUMAN LEVEL AI? CPOSC 2019 THANK YOU Sugey – Launching MVP soon Lancaster AI – LancasterAI.com – Get on the list ENJOY CPOSC 2019!