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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
            September, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text




       • The European leveraged finance market was subdued
          during the summer break for investors and bankers


       • Investors were searching for yield, producing five
          straight weeks of high-yield fund inflows

       • Attention turns to secondary markets due to
          subdued primary market and significant inflows

       • ELLI up 0.91% in August; loan and high yield issuance
          down, default rates up
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99
                                                      Text
     97


      96


      94


          93


          91

               1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 8/11 9/11 10/1112/11 1/12 2/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 8/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102

                                              Text
     98


      94


      89


          85


          81

               1/11   3/11   5/11   7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12   5/12   8/12
.     Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return (monthly)
      3.0%
                                                   August 2012:    + 0.91%
                           Text                    July 2012:      + 0.35%
                                                   Jan-Aug 2012:   + 6.34%
                                                   Jan-Aug 2011:   + 0.41%
     1.8%




     0.5%




    (0.8%)




    (2.0%)
        2/10 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/1012/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/1112/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12

.      Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly)
            12
                                                           HY bonds
                                     Text
                                                           Loans
            9
€billions




            6




            3

                                                                                                            €1.0B
                                                                                                            €1.1B
            0
             3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                       Default Rate by Issuer Count


    16%                                                         16%


    13%                                                        13%


    10%                                                        10%



    6%                                                       Text
                                                                6%



    3%                                                         3%



    0%                                                         0%
      2/09          3/10            4/11              8/12       2/09   2/10         2/11              8/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Looking Ahead
out



      • The European sovereign crisis finale not yet played. We
        are still some distance from the closing credits


      • Possible inflows into high yield bond funds on back of interest
        rate cuts by ECB; tentative stability in the secondary markets

      • A-to-E to continue: issuers seek to address maturity
        concerns, though issuers that come to market are weaker


      • Issuers will continue to seek to tap US market for both loans
        and bonds, market permitting
Text
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September 2012, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update September, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • The European leveraged finance market was subdued during the summer break for investors and bankers • Investors were searching for yield, producing five straight weeks of high-yield fund inflows • Attention turns to secondary markets due to subdued primary market and significant inflows • ELLI up 0.91% in August; loan and high yield issuance down, default rates up
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 Text 97 96 94 93 91 1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 8/11 9/11 10/1112/11 1/12 2/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 8/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 8/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return (monthly) 3.0% August 2012: + 0.91% Text July 2012: + 0.35% Jan-Aug 2012: + 6.34% Jan-Aug 2011: + 0.41% 1.8% 0.5% (0.8%) (2.0%) 2/10 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/1012/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/1112/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly) 12 HY bonds Text Loans 9 €billions 6 3 €1.0B €1.1B 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 3/10 4/11 8/12 2/09 2/10 2/11 8/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Looking Ahead out • The European sovereign crisis finale not yet played. We are still some distance from the closing credits • Possible inflows into high yield bond funds on back of interest rate cuts by ECB; tentative stability in the secondary markets • A-to-E to continue: issuers seek to address maturity concerns, though issuers that come to market are weaker • Issuers will continue to seek to tap US market for both loans and bonds, market permitting
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