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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
           March, 2013
  Steve Miller - Managing Director
New-Issue Loan Volume – by Year

$550B

                    Text
                           Pro Rata
                           Institutional
$440B




$330B




$220B




$110B




  $0B
    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012




                                                                                       2

                                                                                              3
                                                                                        1

                                                                                               1
                                                                                     /7/

                                                                                            /7/
                                                                                -3

                                                                                        -3
        Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data



                                                                               1/1

                                                                                      1/1
S&P/LSTA Index – Average Price
98




96




 94




 91




  89


     2/11   4/11   6/11   8/11   10/11 12/11   2/12   4/12   6/12   8/12   10/12 12/12   2/13

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Visible Loan Flows

$10B

                                              CLO Issuance
                                              Loan Mutual Flows
 $7B




                                                          Text
 $5B




$2B




-$1B
       2/12    3/12    4/12    5/12    6/12    7/12      8/12    9/12   10/12 11/12 12/12   1/13   2/13

       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding
$565B




$552B




$539B




$526B




$513B




$500B
    5/11   6/11   7/11   8/11   9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13



        Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
New-Issue First-Lien Covenant-Lite Loan Volume – by Year
$100B                                                                                                      60%

                                                        Volume
                                                        Percent

$75B                                                                                                       45%




$50B                                                                                                       30%




$25B                                                                                                       15%




 $0B                                                                                                       0%
          2004     2005     2006     2007     2008   2009   2010   2011   2012




                                                                                         2


                                                                                                      3
                                                                                          1


                                                                                                       1
                                                                                       /7/


                                                                                                    /7/
                                                                                  -3


                                                                                               -3
        Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
                                                                                 1/1


                                                                                              1/1
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
                                                  All-BB
                                                  All-B
    9%




    8%




    7%




   5%




   4%




   3%
   2/11   4/11    6/11    8/11    10/11   12/11    2/12    4/12   6/12   8/12   10/12   12/12   2/13



   Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Repricing Volume
$50B




$40B




$30B




$20B




$10B




$0B
   3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13




       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Default Rate

 12%


10%


 7%



5%



2%



0%
 12/98      8/00       4/02      12/03      8/05   4/07   12/08   8/10   2/13

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Market – Outlook

  ‱ Robust near-term deal calendar, intermediate term more hazy



    ‱ Demand outlook also strong:

               > CLOs issuance bounces back

               > Retail flows running hot

               > Institutional allocations also


    ‱ Macro concerns persist



Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
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March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update March, 2013 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. New-Issue Loan Volume – by Year $550B Text Pro Rata Institutional $440B $330B $220B $110B $0B 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 3 1 1 /7/ /7/ -3 -3 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data 1/1 1/1
  • 3. S&P/LSTA Index – Average Price 98 96 94 91 89 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. Visible Loan Flows $10B CLO Issuance Loan Mutual Flows $7B Text $5B $2B -$1B 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
  • 5. S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding $565B $552B $539B $526B $513B $500B 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. New-Issue First-Lien Covenant-Lite Loan Volume – by Year $100B 60% Volume Percent $75B 45% $50B 30% $25B 15% $0B 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 3 1 1 /7/ /7/ -3 -3 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data 1/1 1/1
  • 7. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans All-BB All-B 9% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Repricing Volume $50B $40B $30B $20B $10B $0B 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 2/13 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 10. Loan Market – Outlook ‱ Robust near-term deal calendar, intermediate term more hazy ‱ Demand outlook also strong: > CLOs issuance bounces back > Retail flows running hot > Institutional allocations also ‱ Macro concerns persist Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 11. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 10,000+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis www.leveragedloan.com Free website covering the leveraged loan market www.highyieldbond.com Free website covering the HY market
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