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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
           January, 2013
  Steve Miller - Managing Director
Leveraged Loan Volume
$550B




$440B




$330B




$220B




$110B




  $0B
        1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price

97




95




 93




     91




     89


      1/11   3/11   5/11   7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12   11/12 12/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Visible Loan Flows (Source: LCD, EPFR)


  $8B
                                            CLO Issuance
                                            Loan Mutual Flows
  $6B



                                                          Text

 $4B




 $1B




-$1B
    11/11 12/11 1/12        2/12    3/12    4/12   5/12      6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12

       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding

$550B




$517B




$483B




$450B
        2/11     4/11    6/11     8/11    10/11   12/11   2/12   4/12   6/12   8/12   10/12   12/12



  Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
                                                All-BB
                                                All-B
    9%




    8%




    7%




   5%




   4%




   3%
        2/11   4/11    6/11    8/11    10/11   12/11   2/12   4/12   6/12   8/12   10/12   12/12


   Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Covenant-lite Share of New-issue Loan Volume
100%




75%




50%




25%




 0%
  1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/1111/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/1210/1211/1212/12

 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Default Rate

 12%


10%


 7%



5%



2%



0%
 12/98      8/00       4/02      12/03      8/05   4/07   12/08   8/10   12/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Market - Outlook

                  • Strong indications for demand:

                             > CLOs

                             > Retail flows

                             > Institutional allocations


                   • Deal calendar still light


                  • Macro concerns front and center




Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Follow LCD

www.lcdcomps.com
news, analysis, research, archives


www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432
LCD Leveraged Loan Group ...
9,500+ contacts


www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Headlines, market chatter


www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/
Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be
modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission
of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers,
shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not
responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data
input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT
NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE
ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY
SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory,
punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in
connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or
recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following
publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management,
employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.
S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit
and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a
result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain
the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves
the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge),
and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third
party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

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January 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update January, 2013 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. Leveraged Loan Volume $550B $440B $330B $220B $110B $0B 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 3. S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price 97 95 93 91 89 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 12/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. Visible Loan Flows (Source: LCD, EPFR) $8B CLO Issuance Loan Mutual Flows $6B Text $4B $1B -$1B 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
  • 5. S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding $550B $517B $483B $450B 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans All-BB All-B 9% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Covenant-lite Share of New-issue Loan Volume 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/1111/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/1210/1211/1212/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 12/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Loan Market - Outlook • Strong indications for demand: > CLOs > Retail flows > Institutional allocations • Deal calendar still light • Macro concerns front and center Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 10. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 9,500+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
  • 11. Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.