Analyst Sam Almy: Democrats Won the Big Races Despite a Drop in Turnout. Almy spoke at the 1-23-23 meeting of Democrats of Greater Tucson where he discussed the outcomes of the 2022 election.

1. Democrats of Greater Tucson
2022 General Election Recap

2. Sam Almy – Data Strategist – Uplift Campaigns
Formerly With AZ Democratic Party
• Voter File Manager 2012-2019
• Made cool charts and graphs
Currently With Uplift Campaigns
• Place and analyze digital ad performance
(Facebook/YouTube)
• Works with all progressive candidates
• Congressional, Statewide, Legislative, County,
Municipal, and School Board
• Tracks early voting for AZ
• Makes cool charts and graphs

3. Statewide
Trends
• Overall
Trending
Democratic
• 2018 was first
statewide
Dem wins
since 2008
• Registration
advantage
still
significant vs
GOP
• Party turnout
closing gap
with GOP
• Is current
trend a result
of Trump?

4. Pima County Voter Shifts
Map 1
2012: Obama vs Romney
Map 2
2022: Kelly vs Masters
Top of the Ticket Results

7. Pima County
Trends
• Trending more
Democratic
• If Maricopa County is
close to 50% D, Pima
will push the state blue
• Since 2014 Pima has
become the Dem
stronghold of the state
• 89 precincts flipped
from Ducey to Hobbs
• 0 Precincts flipped
from Garcia to Lake
• Flipped precincts
largely lie with LD 17
and 18

8. Pima
County
• Dems make
up largest
registered
• Independents
are under
represented
in voting
• Dem Turnout
is on par with
GOP
• Turnout
down from
2018
• Pima County
reported
Active and
Inactive votes
in total
registered on
canvass
• Leads to
lower looking
turnout

9. Pima County
• Turnout down from
2018
• AZ-07 was in line
with statewide
turnout drops
• AZ-06 was much
lower than
statewide averages
• Lack of DCCC, DLCC,
and other
organization
resources
• First time Pima
County not targeted
by DCCC since 2004

10. Single Shot
LDs
• All trending
Democratic
• LD 23 was
single shot
GOP success
• All other dem
candidates
receiving 50%
of vote
• LD 13 could
be ready for 2
house
candidates
• LD 17 could
benefit from
Dem single
shot

11. Questions?
• Yes, the presentation will be shared
• Please ask questions not speeches
Contact:
Email: sam@upliftcampaigns.com
Twitter: @sfalmy