1. Introduction to Planning Poker
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What is Planning Poker?
PlanningPoker(alsocalled“ScrumPoker”) isthe preferred estimationtechniqueforScrum.Each user
story is estimatedusingaseriesof numbersthat(a) are integers and(b) become more widelyspacedas
the seriesincreases.The numberseriesusedmostofteninPokerPlanningisthe Fibonacci Series.
What is the Fibonacci Series?
Here is the beginningof the Fibonacci Series…
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, …
Each numberinthe series isthe sumof the two precedingnumbers.The Fibonacci Seriesishighly
effectiveforestimatingforseveral reasons.
1. It reflectsthe factthat as estimatedeffortincreases,the uncertaintyinthatestimate also
increases.
2. If you believethe effortmaybe more than a givennumberinthe series,yournextavailable
choice will be ata significantdistance fromthatnumber.Forexample,if youthinkthe effort
may be greaterthan a 13, yournextavailable choice is21; there isnooptionto “bump”a 13 up
to a 14 or a 15.
3. Practice usingthe seriesenforcesmore “hard-nosed”realisticestimation;overtime,“surprises”
inactual effortshouldbecome more rare.
What Do the Numbers Mean?
The numbersshouldnotbe thoughtof as representinghours,daysorsome othertime interval.Theyare
meantto “size”the work:in otherwords,afterconsideringthe scale and complexity of efforttodeliver
a user story,eachteam memberassignsavalue fromthe Fibonacci Series.
One way touse Fibonacci valuesisasfollows:
1. Setan upperboundon the series tobe usedby yourorganization(anupperlimitof 144 would
not be unusual.)
2. A value of 1 shouldrepresentthe smallestdiscrete piece of workneededtodeliveragainsta
userstory.
3. A value of 144 wouldrepresentthe largest possible developmenteffortachievablebythe team
withinthe cadence of yourScrum process. (Inthe rare caseswhere youexceed144,the user
storyshouldbe decomposedfurtherintochunksthatcanbe deliveredwithinyourScrum
cadence.)
Overtime everyone inthe Developmentorganizationwill developacommonunderstandingof whatthe
numberssignify,andwillbecomeproficientintheirapplication.

2. Introduction to Planning Poker
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How do I Play?
As withall Scrumceremonies, PokerPlanningsessions workbestwhentheyare time boxed (theyshould
alsobe recorded.) Sessions are oftenconductedusing playingcardswithFibonacci numbersprintedon
them.Afterthe teamreviewsthe userstorytogether,eachmemberplacestheircardface-down.When
everyone hasmade anestimate,the cardsare turned over.If all the estimatesare inbroadagreement,
the pokersessionmayconclude.If there are widelydifferentestimates,thisis oftenanopportunityto
surface knowledgeheldbyone ortwoteammembersregardingcomplexitiesand/ordependencies
unknowntothe rest of the team.
There’s an app for that.
In additiontophysical pokercards, there are manyPlanningPokerappsnow available forall major
smart phone platforms;manyof these appsare free.
Notes.
 Whenchoosinga Fibonacci number,itisimportanttoconsiderboththe Scale and Complexity of
the userstory. Anenhancementmaybe trivial intermsof complexitybutmayhave tobe
implementedacrossmultiple releasesandapplications;similarly,achange maybe isolatedto
one release of one app(therefore smallinscale) butmayrequire highlysophisticated
architecture,codingandtesting(highcomplexity)
 Some PlanningPokercardsetsuse a modifiedFibonacci series.Whetherornotyour
organizationusesthe standardseriesorsome modifiedseries,itwouldobviouslybe unwise to
mix the twowithin a single developmentorganization.
Further Reading.
PokerPlanningisanexample of whatiscalleda Wideband Delphi estimationtechnique.Theseemerged
fromwork done inthe late 1960s by the RandCorporation. See TheDelphi Method:An Experimental
Study of Group Opinion at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM5888.html.