1. Volume 2, Number 1, – January 2007
People you should con-
Peak Oil? Hasn’t It Been Debunked? tact about peak oil:
There have certainly been a lot of
attempts to debunk it. And why •Senator Barbara Boxer
http://boxer.senate.gov/con-
would anyone want to mislead us
tact/email/policy.cfm
about oil depletion? It’s only a $1.8
•Senator Dianne Feinstein
trillion-per-year business, with big
http://www.senate.gov/~fein-
profit margins. Lee Raymond retired
stein/email.html
from Exxon Mobil with something •Congressman Sam Farr
like $400 million in compensation— 1221 Longworth House Of-
do you suppose anyone could be fice Building
persuaded to tell an itsy-bitsy fib or Washington, DC 20515
two for that amount of money? But (202) 225-2861
enough of sarcasm and ad FAX (202) 225-6791
http://www.farr.house.gov/
hominems—facts is what we want.
•Governor Arnold Schw…
So, what do the peak oil deniers
http://www.govmail.ca.gov
claim? Vast stores of undiscovered
•President George Bush
oil, vast stores of unconventional oil,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/
abiotic oil bubbling up from the bow-
els of the Earth, technological mar-
Now you can contribute a
vels to extract more and more of the
cent to SMC every time you
oil already discovered—all ready
do a web search—just go to
and waiting to provide more oil just www.goodsearch.com, enter
when we need it. Of course, during “Sustainable Monterey Coun-
almost all of the history of oil they ty” in answer to the “Who do
supply capacity was found before it you GoodSearch for” ques-
was needed, and one might wonder tion, and search .
why—with sustained high prices—
there’s no longer any spare produc- Thanks to all those who have
contributed help and funds to
tion capacity. So let’s take a quick
SMC
look at the cornucopians’ arguments.
Oil exploration has been conduct-
ed around the world, with steadily in-
creasing sophistication, since the
1850’s. After many decades of phe-
UPCOMING EVENTS
Jan. 11: SMC Discussion Group: (re?) In- Group: Economy, 6:45-9pm, Mty Youth Cen-
ter, 777 Pearl St.
troduction to Peak Oil Thurs.,
February 17: SPG “Spring Cleaning, Keep it
6:45-8:30pm, Mry Youth Center, 777
Clean” event, Saturday, 10 am – 4 pm, PG
Pearl St.
Natural History Museum
January 24, Wednesday: Richard Hein-
berg speech at “Ecofarm Conference”,
Asilomar
February 1, Thursday: SMC Discussion
Mission: To ensure an orderly transition through the fossil fuel decline by co-
operatively developing a sustainable economy for Monterey County.

2. SUSTAINABLE MONTEREY COUNTY
Is the US Different from the World?
IT’S POSSIBLE TO
APPROXIMATELY PREDICT
WHEN AN OIL PROVINCE
WILL REACH ITS PEAK AND
DECLINE
M King Hubbert predicted in 1956
that oil production in the lower 48
US states would peak in the late
60’s or early 70’s:
Not just the lower 48 peaked in
1970—the whole US peaked—
and never again reached that lev-
el of output. The addition of the
Oil production & price history for the contiguous 48 states
North Slope of Alaska was only a
bump on the downslope. Rising
prices seem to have stimulated a
little blip in production about 5
years after the historic maximum
price spike. New technology was
developed and deployed as out-
put slid. Offshore drilling didn’t
make up for the decline. Now the
US, once the greatest producer
and exporter of oil in the world,
with the best resources and tech-
nology and capital sources at its
disposal, can’t reverse its declin-
ing oil production and imports
more than 60% of the oil it uses.
Who will do better?
Oil production history for Alaska
The modern version of Hubbert’s method uses a curve-fitting technique to estimate the total oil
that will ever be produced in a province, based on historical oil extraction there. The peak of
production is expected when about half of that amount has been extracted—and after that
comes a permanent decline. The US has been in decline for 36 years, and Alaska has been in
decline for nearly 20 years. Who else is experiencing declining oil production? Oman,
Venezuela, Indonesia, UK, Norway, China, possibly Saudi Arabia, and many, many others are
also in decline. Hubbert’s method fits most of those places very well. Where does the updated
Hubbert linearization place the estimate for the peak of world oil extraction—December 2005,
according to Kenneth Deffeyes. Where is that abiotic refill when you need it?

3. SUSTAINABLE MONTEREY COUNTY
YOU CAN’T EXTRACT OR USE WHAT YOU HAVEN’T FOUND
The graph on the right shows the
world’s rate of oil discovery as the
height of the dark grey bars. It repre-
sents a reasonable extrapolation for
discovery in the future by the lighter
gray area to the right. The black curve
represents the rate of oil production
(and consumption). It’s clear that dis-
covery has been in an inexorable,
though bumpy, decline since about
1964—that’s 43 years ago. We’ve
been using more than we’re finding
since about 1980. Hubbert’s peak
should happen when the area under
the black is half that of the gray.
All of the mainstream ideas for dealing with scarce energy seem
to concentrate on continuing to make more of it available, while
the greatest potential lies in using less.
Further Reading
The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/
Association for the Study of Peak Oil--USA http://www.aspo-usa.com/
Energy Bulletin http://www.energybulletin.net
Oil Addiction: The World in Peril, Pierre Chomat
Beyond Oil, Kenneth Deffeyes
The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler
The Oil Depletion Protocol, Richard Heinberg

4. Director’s Note
CONTACT Happiest of New Years to you all! I hope this note finds you warm and
INFORMATION
dry! What a blustery beginning to the year. The Holidays have passed
and 2007…. here we come! Should I share with you my resolution? Does
MARK FOLSOM:
it come true if I tell; like a wish upon a star, which is only possible if
Phone: 831 648 1543 sealed in secrecy? Well, I will share, because I know you are all sitting
on the edge of your seats. I’ve completely abandoned ever going on a
E-Mail: folsomman@red-
diet again. Yes, it’s true and in fact… the idea of limiting my calorie con-
shift.net
sumption is abhorrent to me. I will, of course, continue to make wise and
healthy eating choices and include plenty of exercise. But I will not spend
another penny or brain space fussing over weight reduction programs for
Steering Committee Members the sake of vanity.
Deborah Lindsay, Director deb@sus-
If you’ve met me, you might think, like I have many times in the 40
tainablemontereycounty.org
years of previously attempted dieting, that I could benefit from a few
pounds lost. But the more important thought to consider besides fitting
Ruth Smith, 831-620-1303
into a certain size of clothing or culturally imposed image of “the perfect”
Committee Chair and Budget Chair
weight for Deb, is that maybe a little stored fat would be a good thing right
Virginia Chomat,
about now. Aren’t our bodies designed to hold on to “extra” when the har-
Secretary and Co-treasurer
vest is plentiful so we can ride the wave of scarcity when the cupboards
Pierre Chomat,
are bare? Isn’t that why we’re attracted to “fat” in the first place, so we
Resident Expert
can store it, and save it for leaner times?
Mark Folsom,
I don’t always let people know how concerned I am about the future of
Newsletter Editor,
our food supply. I make my speeches palatable to a wide arrange of
folsomman@redshift.net
Peak Oil and Global Climate Change supporters, and try not to appear fa-
George Wilson,
831-372-0659 natical. But I must say to you all that I have serious apprehensions about
Committee Evaluation Coordinator the coming few years. It is time to get serious about the work ahead. My
Denyse Frischmuth, brain, your brains, all of our collective attention needs to be on mobiliza-
831-643-0707 tion to prepare for the fossil fuel decline and climate change disruptions.
Volunteer Coordinator and Urban Envi- The weight will come off when our grocery stores no longer shelve
ronmental Accords Coordinator enough food. A heroic cooperative effort is needed now. Please join me in
Robert Frischmuth, making this happen. My real New Years resolution/wish is that we all
Co-Treasurer
weather the coming storm together safely. See our line up of meetings
Program Heads:
scheduled for 2007 at www.sustainablemontereycounty.org, and you can
Annette Chaplin,
always email me at deb@sustainablemontereycounty.org.
831-372-8725
Plant that garden, we’ll need it.
Sustainable Pacific Grove
Deborah
Linda Parker,
phone # 831-656-0664
surite@sbcglobal.net
Colin Campbell’s 2004 prediction for world oil production:
Big Sur Powerdown
Newsletter Design by
Adrienne Allen
aa_nixon@comcast.net
We’re on the Web!
See us at:
http://www.postcarbon.org/
groups/monterey