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Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
June 2013
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Background
• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current
Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by
Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple
Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in June 2013 for
most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city
of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover,
Goochland and Powhatan.
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The National Market
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January 2012 – December 2012
January 2011 – December 2011
80
90
100
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
100 = Historically Healthy Level
National Pending Home Sales
NAR 4/2013
The number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010. You can see that the past year in dark
green has been significantly higher than the previous two years shown in lighter green.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
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National New Home SALES
Compared to
December 2012
Compared to
January 2012
January 2013 Sales
+15.6%
+28.9%
Census 3/1/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
New home construction is up
significantly.
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Nationwide Month’s Inventory of
Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 4/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is
below a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market. Nationwide, we have a shortage of inventory as we
do in parts of the Greater Richmond area.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
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77 Calculated Risk 2/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
The inventory in 2012 was the lowest it has been at any time since 2001. Even the boom years of 2005-2007 had higher
inventory than today.
National Number of Homes for Sale
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1st Quarter
2012
2nd Quarter
2012
3rd Quarter
2012
4th Quarter
2012
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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99 FHFA 2/2013
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
Year over Year change in home prices show that prices in Virginia were up 4.4% in 2012 over 2011 prices.
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1010
-3.9%
-3.5%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.5%
0.6%
1.1%
2.0%
3.6%
4.3%
5.5%
6.8%
8.1%
9.3%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
Case-Shiller National Home Price Indices
This graph shows year over year changes in home prices
by month. January 2012 prices were 3.9% lower than
January 2011 prices. By February of 2013, prices were
9.3% higher than the previous year.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
2012
2013
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Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 16.5%
Boston 5.2%
Charlotte 6.2%
Chicago 5.1%
Cleveland 5.3%
Dallas 7.1%
Denver 9.9%
Detroit 15.2%
Las Vegas 17.6%
Los Angeles 14.1%
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Miami 10.4%
Minneapolis 12%
New York 1.9%
Phoenix 23%
Portland 9.4%
San Diego 10.2%
San Francisco 18.9%
Seattle 9.3%
Tampa 10%
Washington 6.9%
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Year over year prices are up in all 20 of the US major markets!!!
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U. S. Negative Equity Decreasing
Negative Equity Loan Count (millions of mortgages – left axis) Negative Equity Share (percentage– right axis)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Fannie Mae 4/2013
Negative equity occurs when the homeowner owes more on the house than the house is worth. Negative equity can cause
foreclosures and short sales. As you can see, negative equity has decreased dramatically.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
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20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
U. S. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
21%
NAR 4/2013
Distressed properties include Short Sales and Foreclosures. The percentage of Distressed Property sales has dropped
significantly. Foreclosures and short sales tend to drag down prices so this reduction has a positive impact on prices.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
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USA Foreclosure Inventory
RealtyTrac 4/2013
Overall, national foreclosure inventory has declined but the following slides will show that some states are doing better than
others.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
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USA Foreclosure Inventory Non-Judicial
RealtyTrac 4/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
In non-judicial states such as Virginia, you do not have to go through the court system to do a foreclosures so foreclosures
have happened quickly and these states have been working through their foreclosure inventory and there has been a
significant decline in the number of active foreclosures.
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1616
USA Foreclosure Inventory Judicial
RealtyTrac 4/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
In judicial states such as New Jersey, you have to go through the court system to do a foreclosures so foreclosures have
been backed up in the courts for years and these states have large inventories of foreclosure properties and it will take
several more years to work through this inventory.
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Foreclosure Inventory by State
Percentage of mortgages that have been
placed in the process of foreclosure. CoreLogic Foreclosure Report 3/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
As shown above, Virginia has a low inventory of homes in foreclosures because it is a non-judicial state and has already
worked through most of the foreclosures.
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Impact of Increasing Rates
Price Rate P&I
200,000 3.4 886.96
200,000 4.4 1,001.52
Monthly Savings $114.56
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
The interest rate has already jumped up from 3.5% to 4% and it is expected to rise even more this year. This graph shows
the impact of the interest rate on the cost of a house.
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What are the Experts Saying?
“Americans are as bullish on the housing market as they have been at any time
since before the housing bubble burst several years ago. This surely reflects the
stabilization of the housing market, and the fact that home prices are generally
heading up in most parts of the country.” “Gallup data on homeownership
provide strong support for the idea that the American Dream of owning a home
continues to be alive and well. The majority of Americans who own a home plan
on continuing to do so in the future, and most of those who don't own a home
plan on buying one.” (Gallup.com)
“If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) anticipates, the economic
recovery continues at a moderate pace, with unemployment slowly declining
and inflation expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term interest
rates would be expected to rise gradually toward more normal levels over the
next several years… (Ben Bernanke of Federal Reserve on interest rates).
“It’s quite possible that the next decade might bear a resemblance to the 1960s
or ’70s...Homeowners did very well if they bought in 1960 or 1970, locked in
low fixed-rate mortgages and saw the nominal values of their homes soar while
their real mortgage balances declined. This could be an auspicious time to buy
a house…for people who aren’t out to bet on the housing or mortgage markets
but are instead focused on settling into a home for the long term.” (NY Times)
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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2020
Greater Richmond
Housing Market
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)
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Market Indicator #1:
The Number of Sales is
Up!!!
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Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales
12737
15262 15533 16450 15074
12644
9482 9069 8574 9051 10177
4089
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
6/3)
Year
NoofClosedSales
Number of Single Family House Sales by Year
The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
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Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter
The second quarter graphs shows
that 2012 sales were up significantly
from 2011. The second quarter of
2010 was when the homebuyers tax
credit expired so sales were
artificially high during this time.
Source: CVRMLS Data 6/5/13
The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher than
2012 and 26% higher than 2010.
Sales in the first quarter were higher than
the past 5 years.
Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter
3161
2892
2088
1487 1612
1786 1903 2036
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
NoofClosedFirst
QuarterSales
Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter
Sales
4567
3919
2910
2533
3013
2657
3069
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofSales
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Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
by Year
4111
3421
2526 2692
1999
2496
2772
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofClosed
Sales
Third and Fourth Quarter Sales
2012 is 11% higher than 2011.
Source: CVRMLS Data
Sales in the third quarter of 2012
were higher than sales for the
past 4 years!! 2012 fourth
quarter sales are 10.6%
higher than 2011 fourth
quarter sales. Note that 2009
had a tax credit during the
fourth quarter.
Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in
Fourth Quarter by Year
3222
2362
1707
2357
1847
2123
2347
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofSales
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2525
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales
1761
2035
1757
1382
1154 1093 1201
1420
587
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Thru
6/4/13)
Year
NumberofCondominium
Sales
Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10%
higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!!
Source: CVRMLS data 6/4/13
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Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year
601
529
420
324
431
344 389
0
200
400
600
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NoofClosed
Condominium
Sales
Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter
The first quarter of 2013 had more
sales than the first quarter of the
previous 4 years. The second quarter
of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or
2009 second quarters. There was a
tax credit which ended in the second
quarter of 2010 so sales were
artificially stimulated.
Source: CVRMLS data
2013 first quarter sales were 4% higher than
2012 sales and 52% higher than 2012 sales..
2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales.
Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year
428
376
310
190 189
242
275 287
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
NoofFirstQuarter
Sales
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Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12
Source: CVRMLS data
Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium
Sales by Year
578
499
355 345
219
325
393
0
200
400
600
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofSales
Third quarter sales in 2012 were
higher than third quarter sales of the
previous 4 years!!. The fourth quarter
of 2012 had 18% more sales than the
fourth quarter of 2011.
2012 sales were 21% higher than 2011 sales.
2011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales.
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters
Greater Richmond Condominium and
Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter
424
339
233
288
225
287
338
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
FourthQuarterSales
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Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
In the Condominium market,
Year over Year number of sales
by price point have increased in
all price points with dramatic
increases in the higher price
points..
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
In the single family market,
Year over Year number of
sales by price point have
increased in all price points
Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater
Richmond
Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change
$0-$250,000 6564 6776 3.23%
$250,001-$500,000 2438 2938 20.51%
$500,001-$750,000 417 515 23.50%
$750,001-$1,000,000 88 116 31.82%
$1,000,001+ 34 46 35.29%
Number of Condominium Sales in Greater
Richmond
Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change
$0-$250,000 983 1057 7.53%
$250,001-$500,000 293 350 19.45%
$500,001+ 19 56 194.74%
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2929
Market Indicator #2:
Inventory is Down!!!
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Months Market Pricing
1-4 Sellers Appreciation
5-6 Even The Norm
7+ Buyers Depreciation
Months Supply’s Impact on Price
Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10
As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most
areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market.
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Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
InventoryofHouses
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond
The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year.
After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has
continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were
7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4045. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory.
Source: CVRMLS data
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Single Family Inventory by Price Range
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up
to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still
challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is
increasing.
Price Range
Inventory
(Months)
$0-$250,000 4.2
$250,001-$500,000 4.9
$500,001-$750,000 8.9
$750,001-$1,000,000 12.7
$1,000,001+ 21.5
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
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Inventory By County/City
4.6
3.6
4.9
8.3
4.2
8.0
4.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Cityof
Richmond
Henrico
Hanover
Goochland
Chesterfield
Powhatan
All
Richmond
County
Inventory
Single Family Inventory by County
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield are indicative of a
normal market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and
fewer sales and are still Buyer’s markets..
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3434
Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year
and Month in Greater Richmond
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan
Feb
M
ar
Apr
M
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
O
ct
Nov
Dec
Month
MonthsofInventory
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory of Condominiums
The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of
2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater
Richmond and today there are 487.. The inventory in June 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010.
Source: CVRMLS data
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3535
Market Indicator #3:
Prices have bottomed out
and are rising!!!
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3636
Average Sales Price By Month
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Month
AverageSalesPrice
Single Family Average Sales Price By Month
The average sales price in Greater Richmond is rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011
and the low points during the winter are also higher. We have not yet hit the spring peak of 2013.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
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Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed
House Sales in Greater Richmond
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Month
PricePerSquareFootFor
ClosedSales
Greater Richmond Single Family Price
Per Square Foot by Month
Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2013 is already higher
than in 2012 year and the winter low did not occur in 2013..
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
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Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot
For Closed House Sales By Year
$92.37
$99.65
$107.60
$123.38
$135.82$139.64
$132.43
$117.82
$112.24
$104.98$106.16
$110.17
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
6/3)
Year
PricePerSquareFoot
Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for
Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond
Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2013 prices being approximately 3.8% higher than 2012 prices. With
a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line
on this graph.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
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3939
Single Family Year over Year Price Change
Year over year price change shows that as 2012 and 2013 prices increasing after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the
7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013, prices are up 3.8%.
Source: CVRMLS data 4/3/13
Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From
Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond
7.9% 8.0%
14.7%
10.1%
2.8%
-5.2%
-11.0%
-4.7%
-6.5%
1.1%
3.8%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Thru
6/3)
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Greater Richmond Single Family
Price Per Square Foot by Quarter
$75.00
$85.00
$95.00
$105.00
$115.00
$125.00
$135.00
$145.00
2007-01
2007-02
2007-03
2007-04
2008-01
2008-02
2008-03
2008-04
2009-01
2009-02
2009-03
2009-04
2010-01
2010-02
2010-03
2010-04
2011-01
2011-02
2011-03
2011-04
2012-01
2012-02
2012-03
2012-04
2013-01
Quarter
PriceperSquareFoot
40
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter
First Quarter
Sales
Second Quarter
Sales
Fourth Quarter
Sales
Third Quarter
Sales
Source: CVRMLS data
When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is
higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011. The
third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter 2012 prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices. The fourth quarter is in green and 2012
fourth quarter prices are significantly higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
The turn in the market!!!
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Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012
6.54%
1.85%
0.75%
2.29%
-0.10%
-6.70%-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
C
ity
ofRichm
ond
H
enrico
H
anover
G
oochland
C
hesterfield
Pow
hatan
2011 vs 2012 Prices By County
Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield was slightly down and
Powhatan still has some challenges.
Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13
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Monthly Change in Prices
Change in Price Per Square Foot in Greater Richmond
from Previous Year-5.79%
4.74%
-2.81%
-2.24%
1.16%
3.71%
1.64%
1.16%
3.08%
10.46%
6.21%
2.73%
8.74%
7.88%
8.33%
13.42%
9.51%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan11-Jan12
Feb11-Feb12
Mar11-Mar12
Apr11-Apr12
May11-May12
Jun11-Jun12
Jul11-Jul12
Aug11-Aug12
Sep11-Sep12
Oct11-Oct12
Nov11-Nov12
Dec11-Dec12
Jan12-Jan13
Feb12-Feb13
Mar12-Mar13
April12-April13
May12-May13
Month of Comparison
ChangeinPricePerSquare
FootSource: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the
right of the graph, May of 2013 price per square foot was 9.51% higher than in May of 2012. There are a normal monthly
fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up.
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www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4343
Condominium Price Per Square Foot
Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past
year.
Source: CVRMLS data 4/3/13
Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium
Sales in Greater Richmond
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Month
PricePerSquareFoot
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4444
Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By
Year
$90.84
$100.03
$113.32
$133.49
$149.49$154.00$152.70
$135.62$131.55
$119.16$121.13$126.36
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
6/4/13)
Year
PriceperSquareFoot
Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales By Year
The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices
in 2013 are 4.3% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.
Source: CVRMLS data `6/4/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4545
Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change
By Price Range
In the single family market, prices have increased in
all price points.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/4/13
In the condominium market, price per square foot is
increasing in the lower and middle price point.
Single Family Condominium/Townhouse
Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond
Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change
$0-$250,000 $85.71 $89.25 4.13%
$250,001-$500,000 $121.30 $124.49 2.63%
$500,001-$750,000 $151.64 $152.87 0.81%
$750,001-
$1,000,000 $178.80 $181.48 1.50%
$1,000,001+ $221.90 $235.22 6.00%
Condominium Price per Square Foot Change
in Greater Richmond
Price Range
6/11-
5/12
6/12-
5/13
Chang
e
$0-$250,000 $106.39 $111.75 5.04%
$250,001-
$500,000 $148.32 $152.98 3.14%
$500,001+ $190.33 $186.46 -2.03%
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4646
Richmond Real Estate Areas
The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,
62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4747
Active Listings By Area (As of 6/3/13)
211
80
263
186
124 108
198
237 220 197 224
156
437
510
189
348
155
202
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
Area
NumberofActiveSingle
FamilyListings
Active Single Family Listings By Area
The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are
approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of
declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20
having the lowest.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4848
Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House
Sales (6/1/12-5/31/13)
$239,847
$449,541
$312,102
$414,068
$137,281
$146,400
$332,000
$275,667
$143,180
$107,802
$224,769
$59,534
$164,531
$211,466
$196,842
$239,195
$348,578
$258,897
$235,858
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
A
llR
ichm
ond
Area
AverageSalesPrice
Single Family Average Sales Price By Area
Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50
having the lowest.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4949
Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House
Closed Sales By Area (6/1/12-5/31/13)
$115.10
$181.27
$125.93
$131.37
$75.66
$92.48
$121.21
$114.28
$82.30
$66.95
$109.25
$42.50
$83.31
$93.54
$100.19
$100.53
$112.86
$109.99
$101.93
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
Area
PricePerSquareFoot
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area
Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest
price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $101.93.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
5050
Supply of Houses by Area in Months
4.5
2.9 3.0
9.9
4.4
3.3 2.9
5.9
6.6 6.5
4.6
7.7
6.0
4.9 5.0
3.3
3.9
8.2
4.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
Area
MonthsofSupply
Inventory of Single Family Houses
As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have
the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and
Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses at 9.9 and 8.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has
a higher inventory at 7.7 months.
Source: CVRMLS data 1/30/13
Red Line represents a normal market.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
5151
Summary
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
5252
Existing Home Sales
12,109 US Homes Sell Every Day
and 8,718 Buyers Receive a Mortgage
NAR 12/2011
In spite of the recent
downturn, home
ownership
continues to be the
best long-term
investment in the
US!!!
Source: Keeping Current Matters
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
5353
Summary
• Sales are up
• Inventory is down
• Prices have started to rise in most
areas.
• This is the chance of a lifetime to
BUY!!!

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Richmond Housing Today June 2013

  • 1. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 11 The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties June 2013
  • 2. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 22 Background • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in June 2013 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.
  • 3. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 33 The National Market
  • 4. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 44 January 2012 – December 2012 January 2011 – December 2011 80 90 100 110 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2012 2011 100 = Historically Healthy Level National Pending Home Sales NAR 4/2013 The number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010. You can see that the past year in dark green has been significantly higher than the previous two years shown in lighter green. Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
  • 5. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 55 National New Home SALES Compared to December 2012 Compared to January 2012 January 2013 Sales +15.6% +28.9% Census 3/1/2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13 New home construction is up significantly.
  • 6. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 66 Nationwide Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAR 4/2013 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is below a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market. Nationwide, we have a shortage of inventory as we do in parts of the Greater Richmond area. Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
  • 7. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 77 Calculated Risk 2/2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13 The inventory in 2012 was the lowest it has been at any time since 2001. Even the boom years of 2005-2007 had higher inventory than today. National Number of Homes for Sale
  • 8. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 88 1st Quarter 2012 2nd Quarter 2012 3rd Quarter 2012 4th Quarter 2012 Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
  • 9. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 99 FHFA 2/2013 FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year) Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13 Year over Year change in home prices show that prices in Virginia were up 4.4% in 2012 over 2011 prices.
  • 10. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1010 -3.9% -3.5% -2.5% -1.7% -0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 2.0% 3.6% 4.3% 5.5% 6.8% 8.1% 9.3% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Year-over-Year Change in Prices Jan Feb Mar Apr May S&P Case Shiller 4/2013 Case-Shiller National Home Price Indices This graph shows year over year changes in home prices by month. January 2012 prices were 3.9% lower than January 2011 prices. By February of 2013, prices were 9.3% higher than the previous year. Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13 2012 2013
  • 11. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1111 Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Atlanta 16.5% Boston 5.2% Charlotte 6.2% Chicago 5.1% Cleveland 5.3% Dallas 7.1% Denver 9.9% Detroit 15.2% Las Vegas 17.6% Los Angeles 14.1% Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Miami 10.4% Minneapolis 12% New York 1.9% Phoenix 23% Portland 9.4% San Diego 10.2% San Francisco 18.9% Seattle 9.3% Tampa 10% Washington 6.9% S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 4/2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13 Year over year prices are up in all 20 of the US major markets!!!
  • 12. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1212 U. S. Negative Equity Decreasing Negative Equity Loan Count (millions of mortgages – left axis) Negative Equity Share (percentage– right axis) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fannie Mae 4/2013 Negative equity occurs when the homeowner owes more on the house than the house is worth. Negative equity can cause foreclosures and short sales. As you can see, negative equity has decreased dramatically. Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
  • 13. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1313 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar U. S. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 21% NAR 4/2013 Distressed properties include Short Sales and Foreclosures. The percentage of Distressed Property sales has dropped significantly. Foreclosures and short sales tend to drag down prices so this reduction has a positive impact on prices. Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
  • 14. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1414 USA Foreclosure Inventory RealtyTrac 4/2013 Overall, national foreclosure inventory has declined but the following slides will show that some states are doing better than others. Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
  • 15. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1515 USA Foreclosure Inventory Non-Judicial RealtyTrac 4/2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13 In non-judicial states such as Virginia, you do not have to go through the court system to do a foreclosures so foreclosures have happened quickly and these states have been working through their foreclosure inventory and there has been a significant decline in the number of active foreclosures.
  • 16. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1616 USA Foreclosure Inventory Judicial RealtyTrac 4/2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13 In judicial states such as New Jersey, you have to go through the court system to do a foreclosures so foreclosures have been backed up in the courts for years and these states have large inventories of foreclosure properties and it will take several more years to work through this inventory.
  • 17. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1717 Foreclosure Inventory by State Percentage of mortgages that have been placed in the process of foreclosure. CoreLogic Foreclosure Report 3/2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13 As shown above, Virginia has a low inventory of homes in foreclosures because it is a non-judicial state and has already worked through most of the foreclosures.
  • 18. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1818 Impact of Increasing Rates Price Rate P&I 200,000 3.4 886.96 200,000 4.4 1,001.52 Monthly Savings $114.56 Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13 The interest rate has already jumped up from 3.5% to 4% and it is expected to rise even more this year. This graph shows the impact of the interest rate on the cost of a house.
  • 19. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1919 What are the Experts Saying? “Americans are as bullish on the housing market as they have been at any time since before the housing bubble burst several years ago. This surely reflects the stabilization of the housing market, and the fact that home prices are generally heading up in most parts of the country.” “Gallup data on homeownership provide strong support for the idea that the American Dream of owning a home continues to be alive and well. The majority of Americans who own a home plan on continuing to do so in the future, and most of those who don't own a home plan on buying one.” (Gallup.com) “If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderate pace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflation expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term interest rates would be expected to rise gradually toward more normal levels over the next several years… (Ben Bernanke of Federal Reserve on interest rates). “It’s quite possible that the next decade might bear a resemblance to the 1960s or ’70s...Homeowners did very well if they bought in 1960 or 1970, locked in low fixed-rate mortgages and saw the nominal values of their homes soar while their real mortgage balances declined. This could be an auspicious time to buy a house…for people who aren’t out to bet on the housing or mortgage markets but are instead focused on settling into a home for the long term.” (NY Times) Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
  • 20. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2020 Greater Richmond Housing Market Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)
  • 21. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2121 Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!!
  • 22. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2222 Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales 12737 15262 15533 16450 15074 12644 9482 9069 8574 9051 10177 4089 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Thru 6/3) Year NoofClosedSales Number of Single Family House Sales by Year The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 23. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2323 Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter The second quarter graphs shows that 2012 sales were up significantly from 2011. The second quarter of 2010 was when the homebuyers tax credit expired so sales were artificially high during this time. Source: CVRMLS Data 6/5/13 The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher than 2012 and 26% higher than 2010. Sales in the first quarter were higher than the past 5 years. Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter 3161 2892 2088 1487 1612 1786 1903 2036 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year NoofClosedFirst QuarterSales Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales 4567 3919 2910 2533 3013 2657 3069 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year NumberofSales
  • 24. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2424 Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales by Year 4111 3421 2526 2692 1999 2496 2772 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year NumberofClosed Sales Third and Fourth Quarter Sales 2012 is 11% higher than 2011. Source: CVRMLS Data Sales in the third quarter of 2012 were higher than sales for the past 4 years!! 2012 fourth quarter sales are 10.6% higher than 2011 fourth quarter sales. Note that 2009 had a tax credit during the fourth quarter. Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in Fourth Quarter by Year 3222 2362 1707 2357 1847 2123 2347 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year NumberofSales
  • 25. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2525 Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales 1761 2035 1757 1382 1154 1093 1201 1420 587 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Thru 6/4/13) Year NumberofCondominium Sales Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10% higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!! Source: CVRMLS data 6/4/13
  • 26. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2626 Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 601 529 420 324 431 344 389 0 200 400 600 800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year NoofClosed Condominium Sales Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter The first quarter of 2013 had more sales than the first quarter of the previous 4 years. The second quarter of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or 2009 second quarters. There was a tax credit which ended in the second quarter of 2010 so sales were artificially stimulated. Source: CVRMLS data 2013 first quarter sales were 4% higher than 2012 sales and 52% higher than 2012 sales.. 2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales. Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 428 376 310 190 189 242 275 287 0 100 200 300 400 500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year NoofFirstQuarter Sales
  • 27. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2727 Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Source: CVRMLS data Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium Sales by Year 578 499 355 345 219 325 393 0 200 400 600 800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year NumberofSales Third quarter sales in 2012 were higher than third quarter sales of the previous 4 years!!. The fourth quarter of 2012 had 18% more sales than the fourth quarter of 2011. 2012 sales were 21% higher than 2011 sales. 2011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales. Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters Greater Richmond Condominium and Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter 424 339 233 288 225 287 338 0 100 200 300 400 500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year FourthQuarterSales
  • 28. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2828 Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales In the Condominium market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points with dramatic increases in the higher price points.. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13 In the single family market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change $0-$250,000 6564 6776 3.23% $250,001-$500,000 2438 2938 20.51% $500,001-$750,000 417 515 23.50% $750,001-$1,000,000 88 116 31.82% $1,000,001+ 34 46 35.29% Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change $0-$250,000 983 1057 7.53% $250,001-$500,000 293 350 19.45% $500,001+ 19 56 194.74%
  • 29. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2929 Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!!
  • 30. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3030 Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation Months Supply’s Impact on Price Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10 As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market.
  • 31. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3131 Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month InventoryofHouses 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were 7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4045. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory. Source: CVRMLS data
  • 32. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3232 Single Family Inventory by Price Range Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13 The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is increasing. Price Range Inventory (Months) $0-$250,000 4.2 $250,001-$500,000 4.9 $500,001-$750,000 8.9 $750,001-$1,000,000 12.7 $1,000,001+ 21.5 Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 33. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3333 Inventory By County/City 4.6 3.6 4.9 8.3 4.2 8.0 4.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Cityof Richmond Henrico Hanover Goochland Chesterfield Powhatan All Richmond County Inventory Single Family Inventory by County Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13 The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and fewer sales and are still Buyer’s markets..
  • 34. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3434 Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year and Month in Greater Richmond 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov Dec Month MonthsofInventory 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inventory of Condominiums The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 487.. The inventory in June 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010. Source: CVRMLS data
  • 35. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3535 Market Indicator #3: Prices have bottomed out and are rising!!!
  • 36. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3636 Average Sales Price By Month $150,000 $170,000 $190,000 $210,000 $230,000 $250,000 $270,000 $290,000 $310,000 $330,000 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Month AverageSalesPrice Single Family Average Sales Price By Month The average sales price in Greater Richmond is rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011 and the low points during the winter are also higher. We have not yet hit the spring peak of 2013. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 37. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3737 Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Month PricePerSquareFootFor ClosedSales Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2013 is already higher than in 2012 year and the winter low did not occur in 2013.. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 38. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3838 Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year $92.37 $99.65 $107.60 $123.38 $135.82$139.64 $132.43 $117.82 $112.24 $104.98$106.16 $110.17 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Thru 6/3) Year PricePerSquareFoot Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2013 prices being approximately 3.8% higher than 2012 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 39. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3939 Single Family Year over Year Price Change Year over year price change shows that as 2012 and 2013 prices increasing after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013, prices are up 3.8%. Source: CVRMLS data 4/3/13 Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond 7.9% 8.0% 14.7% 10.1% 2.8% -5.2% -11.0% -4.7% -6.5% 1.1% 3.8% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Thru 6/3)
  • 40. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4040 Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter $75.00 $85.00 $95.00 $105.00 $115.00 $125.00 $135.00 $145.00 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2008-01 2008-02 2008-03 2008-04 2009-01 2009-02 2009-03 2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03 2011-04 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2013-01 Quarter PriceperSquareFoot 40 Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter First Quarter Sales Second Quarter Sales Fourth Quarter Sales Third Quarter Sales Source: CVRMLS data When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011. The third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter 2012 prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices. The fourth quarter is in green and 2012 fourth quarter prices are significantly higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13 The turn in the market!!!
  • 41. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4141 Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012 6.54% 1.85% 0.75% 2.29% -0.10% -6.70%-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% C ity ofRichm ond H enrico H anover G oochland C hesterfield Pow hatan 2011 vs 2012 Prices By County Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield was slightly down and Powhatan still has some challenges. Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13
  • 42. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4242 Monthly Change in Prices Change in Price Per Square Foot in Greater Richmond from Previous Year-5.79% 4.74% -2.81% -2.24% 1.16% 3.71% 1.64% 1.16% 3.08% 10.46% 6.21% 2.73% 8.74% 7.88% 8.33% 13.42% 9.51% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Jan11-Jan12 Feb11-Feb12 Mar11-Mar12 Apr11-Apr12 May11-May12 Jun11-Jun12 Jul11-Jul12 Aug11-Aug12 Sep11-Sep12 Oct11-Oct12 Nov11-Nov12 Dec11-Dec12 Jan12-Jan13 Feb12-Feb13 Mar12-Mar13 April12-April13 May12-May13 Month of Comparison ChangeinPricePerSquare FootSource: CVRMLS data 6/3/13 This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the right of the graph, May of 2013 price per square foot was 9.51% higher than in May of 2012. There are a normal monthly fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up.
  • 43. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4343 Condominium Price Per Square Foot Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past year. Source: CVRMLS data 4/3/13 Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 $160.00 $170.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Month PricePerSquareFoot
  • 44. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4444 Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year $90.84 $100.03 $113.32 $133.49 $149.49$154.00$152.70 $135.62$131.55 $119.16$121.13$126.36 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Thru 6/4/13) Year PriceperSquareFoot Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2013 are 4.3% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Source: CVRMLS data `6/4/13
  • 45. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4545 Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range In the single family market, prices have increased in all price points. Source: CVRMLS data 6/4/13 In the condominium market, price per square foot is increasing in the lower and middle price point. Single Family Condominium/Townhouse Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change $0-$250,000 $85.71 $89.25 4.13% $250,001-$500,000 $121.30 $124.49 2.63% $500,001-$750,000 $151.64 $152.87 0.81% $750,001- $1,000,000 $178.80 $181.48 1.50% $1,000,001+ $221.90 $235.22 6.00% Condominium Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price Range 6/11- 5/12 6/12- 5/13 Chang e $0-$250,000 $106.39 $111.75 5.04% $250,001- $500,000 $148.32 $152.98 3.14% $500,001+ $190.33 $186.46 -2.03%
  • 46. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4646 Richmond Real Estate Areas The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.
  • 47. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4747 Active Listings By Area (As of 6/3/13) 211 80 263 186 124 108 198 237 220 197 224 156 437 510 189 348 155 202 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Area NumberofActiveSingle FamilyListings Active Single Family Listings By Area The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 48. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4848 Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (6/1/12-5/31/13) $239,847 $449,541 $312,102 $414,068 $137,281 $146,400 $332,000 $275,667 $143,180 $107,802 $224,769 $59,534 $164,531 $211,466 $196,842 $239,195 $348,578 $258,897 $235,858 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 A llR ichm ond Area AverageSalesPrice Single Family Average Sales Price By Area Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 49. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4949 Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House Closed Sales By Area (6/1/12-5/31/13) $115.10 $181.27 $125.93 $131.37 $75.66 $92.48 $121.21 $114.28 $82.30 $66.95 $109.25 $42.50 $83.31 $93.54 $100.19 $100.53 $112.86 $109.99 $101.93 $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 AllRichmond Area PricePerSquareFoot Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $101.93. Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
  • 50. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5050 Supply of Houses by Area in Months 4.5 2.9 3.0 9.9 4.4 3.3 2.9 5.9 6.6 6.5 4.6 7.7 6.0 4.9 5.0 3.3 3.9 8.2 4.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 AllRichmond Area MonthsofSupply Inventory of Single Family Houses As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses at 9.9 and 8.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has a higher inventory at 7.7 months. Source: CVRMLS data 1/30/13 Red Line represents a normal market.
  • 51. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5151 Summary
  • 52. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5252 Existing Home Sales 12,109 US Homes Sell Every Day and 8,718 Buyers Receive a Mortgage NAR 12/2011 In spite of the recent downturn, home ownership continues to be the best long-term investment in the US!!! Source: Keeping Current Matters
  • 53. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5353 Summary • Sales are up • Inventory is down • Prices have started to rise in most areas. • This is the chance of a lifetime to BUY!!!