1. International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14
67RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION
Research Paper—Economics
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November, 2010
Introduction
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal-
saidtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
(IPCC) in this latest assessment report, pointing to
increased global air and ocean temperature,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising sea
level.Theintergovernmentalpanelscientistfoundsome
agricultural practices, and changes in land use have
beengeneratingGreenHouseGases(GHG)likecarbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that trapped heat
and produced runaway global warming.
GlobalTemperature
In the 1880-1935 periods, the global temperature
anomaly was consistently negative. In contrast the
1980-2005 periods has had a consistently positive
temperatureanomaly.The1917temperatureanomaly
(-0.47°
Celsius)wasthelowestyearonrecord.Since
1917,globaltemperaturehaswarmed,withthemost
recent years showing the highest anomalies of +0.4/
0.6°
Celsius in the past 120 years.According to the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the
1990s were the warmest decade; the 1990s were the
warmestcenturyduringthelast1,000years.Thefive
warmestyearsonrecord,inorder(warmestfirst)are
2005,1998,2002,2003and2004.
Vulnerabilitie By virtue of demographics,
topography and geography, India is ground zero for
climate change. With over 1.13 billion people India
hasthegreatestpopulationinthetropical,equatorial
region in which it is located – far more than west
Asia’s211million,south-eastAsia’s554million.Or
evenallofAfrica’s922million(UnitedNations2009).
India is also home to a third of the world’s poor, the
population that lives on less than one dollar a day,
which constitutes over 40% of India’s population
(Shaohuna and Ravallion 2008). The poor are the
CLIMATE CHANGE: IT’S IMPACT ON INDIA
*Dr. V.J.R. Emerlson Moses
A B S T R A C T
most vulnerable to the effects of climate change,
having the least recourse from the status quo and
minimal physical protection from environmental
shifts. Anomalous weather patterns such as floods,
droughts, rising temperatures and heat waves, and
river recession are among the environmental
scenariosthatalreadyharmlargenumbersofIndians
(Parikh2009).
ImpactofClimateChange
Worldwide it is agreed that on of the greatest
challenges to sustainable development in the 21st
century is climate change. Climate change poses a
serious threat to developmentandpovertyreduction
in the poorest and most vulnerable regions of the
world.Itsimpactiaalreadybeingexperiencedacross
theglobe.Thefirstandforemostchallengeofclimate
change would be the rise in the mean sea level.
According to the IPCC’s fourth assessment report
that was released on 2nd
February 2007, there has
been acceleration in sea level since 1993. Between
1961 and 2003, the sea level had increased at an
averagerateof0.18metersperyear.Butbetween1993
and 2003, the rate of rise had nearly doubled to 0.31
metersperyear.Thereportalsopredicatedsealevels
wouldincreasebyupto0.38metersbythemidofthis
centuryand0.59metersbytheendofthe21st
century.
ImpactonEcosystem
The primary threats of global warming is that,
the ecosystem services include habitat degradation
or loss, changes in biodiversity and synergistic
interactions between these factors and rapid climate
change, release of toxic substance and stratospheric
ozone depletion. A recent synthesis of information
aboutecosystemservicesfromtheEcologicalSociety
of America concluded that: Ecosystem services are
essentialtocivilization.Ecosystemservicesoperate
Worldwide it is agreed that on of the greatest challenges to sustainable development in the 21st
century
is climate change. Climate change poses a serious threat to development and poverty reduction in the
poorest and most vulnerable regions of the world. Its impact ia already being experienced across the
globe. The first and foremost challenge of climate change would be the rise in the mean sea level.
According to the IPCC’s fourth assessment report that was released on 2nd
February 2007, there has
been acceleration in sea level since 1993.
*Asst.Prof.P.G.&ResearchDept.of Eco.,MuthurangamGovt.Arts.College,Vellore

2. International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14
68 RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION
on such a grand scale and in such intricate and little-
explored ways that most could not replaced by
technology.
ImpactonWaterResources
Throughout the world, regions that have
sustainable groundwater balance are shrinking day
by day by the effects of global warming. Three
problems dominate in groundwater use: depletion
duetooverdraft;waterloggingandStalinizationdue
mostly to inadequate drainage and insufficient
conjunctive use and pollution due to agricultural,
industrial and other human activities. In regions of
India, especially with high population density area,
dynamic tube-well-irrigated agriculture and
insufficient surface water, many consequences of
groundwater overdevelopment are becoming
increasingly evident.
ImpactonForestResources
India is one of the few countries, which has had a
diversifiedforest.Forestsarearenewablesourceand
contribute substantially to economic development.
They play a major role in enhancing the quality of
environment. The total forest cover which includes
dense forest, open forest and mangrove is estimated
to be 63.73 million hectares. This constitutes 19.39
percentofcounty’sgeographicalarea.Outofthisthe
dense forest accounts to 11.48 percent, open forest
represents 7.76 percent while mangrove forest 0.15
percent and scribe area 1.58 percent. This has been
drasticallydecreaseafter1999,becauseofthreatening
by the natural and droughts.
ImpactonDrinkingwater
The watershed of the Himalayan Mountain chain
provided the ecosystem service of water filtration
and purification. Over time, this watershed system
became overwhelmed by global warming and it
increased the runoff at the particular point that
impaired the water quality. These problem can be
reduce include flood control, air purification,
generationoffertilesoilandproductionofarangeof
goodsfromtimbertomushrooms,aswellassitesfor
recreation, inspiration, education and scientific
inquiry. Even acknowledging that not all ecosystem
servicescanbereplacedbyahumanmadesubstitute.
ImpactonHumanResources
Recent years have shown a slowing down in the
declineininfantmortalityratesinIndia.Childmortality
in India would drop by 20% if girls had the same
mortality rate as boys between the ages of 1 month
and 5 years. The factors contributing to this
vulnerability is mainly by the wounded ecosystem.
Half a million of pregnancy woman’s in a year are
premature aborted in India (Jha et al., 2006). These
numbers are alarming why women are and mire
specifically Childs, more likely to die than men’s
compared, the expected reason would be the non-
availabilityandshortageofnutritiousfoodinchanging
environmentalconditions.Infuture,femalepopulation
may decrease drastically and it creates imbalance in
socialorfamilylifeoftraditionalIndiansociety.
ImpactonHumanHealth
Climate change would affect human health in
manyways.Warmertemperaturewouldincreasethe
riskofmortalityfromheatstress.Itwouldalsoinfluence
the incidence of diseases like malaria, dengue, yellow
feverandcholera.AccordingtoWHO,thereisapotential
forincreasedairpollutionrelatedmorbidityandmortality
in world population due to the release of GHG. This
couldresultin50to80millionadditionaldeathsperyear
worldwide by 2100. Climate change also would have
profound effect on aquatic fauna.
ImpactonAgriculture
Theagriculturesectorrepresents35%ofIndia’sgross
National Product (GNP) and as such plays a crucial
role in the country’s development. The impact of
climatechangeonagriculturecouldresultinproblems
with food security and may threaten the live hood
activities upon which much of the population
depends. It is widely believed that climate change
could have a significant impact upon agriculture
productivity, both positive and negative. Much
researchefforthasbeenspentinconstructingmodels
oftheagriculturalsectortoinvestigatevariousclimate
change scenarios (Parry, 1990).
Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) studied the
impactoftemperatureriseonriceproductioninIndia.
Average yields of rice in the coastal areas are less in
theinteriorwhencomparedtothenorthernstateslike
PunjabandHaryana.SeshuandCady(1984)estimated
a decrease in yield at the rate of 0.71 ton.ha with an
increaseinminimumtemperaturerisefrom18æ%
Cto
19æ%
C and a decrease of 0.41 ton/ha as temperature
rise from 22æ%
C to 23æ%
C. There are several reasons
for varying sensitivity of yields to temperature in
different areas (Yoshida, 1981). Indian agricultural
scientists attribute this sensitivity mainly to
temperature conditions at the crop location. It is
estimated that an increase of 2°
C in the mean air
temperature could decrease the rice yield of about
0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas and only by about
0.06 ton/ha in the low yield coastal regions. During
the winter season, wheat is a major crop in India. It
contributes the bulk of the grain buffer stock which
is distributed through the public distribution system
to exercise price control during adverse periods of
production. Any changes in wheat production,

3. International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14
69RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION
therefore, strongly influence national food security.
The crop is mostly grown in the latitudinal belt of
22°N-33°
N.itisalsogrownbetween11°
Nand21°
N,
though productivity is low. Sinha and Swaminathan
(1992) estimated that a 0.5°
C increase in winter
temperature would reduce crop duration by seven
days and yield by 0.45 ton/ha. In other words, an
increaseof0.5°
Cinmeantemperatureinthehighyield
states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh would
reduce the production by 10% In the areas of less
productivity will be still higher. These results,
however,needfurtherexaminationinthelightofthe
possibility of related changes in local precipitation
patterns, developments in fertilizer and pest control
technologies, and so on.
It is evident that the agricultural sector in India
mayexperienceconsiderableadverseimpactsdueto
anincreaseinatmosphericgreenhousegaslevels.The
primary causes of decreases in simulated yields are
foundtobedueto:(i)shorteningofthegrowingperiod;
(ii) the decrease in water availability; and (iii) poor
vernalization (theminimumtemperaturerequirementto
startthefloweringprocess).Highertemperatureduring
the growing season speeds annual crops through their
development (especially at the grain filling stage),
allowinglessgraintobeproduced.Theriseintemperature
isalsolikelytoresultinanincreaseinevaporationrates,
thereby enhancing losses of soil moisture. This would
be aggravated by any decrease in precipitation under
the climate change scenario Studies by Indian
Agriculture Research Institute indicate that Indian
agriculture would face many challenges over the
coming decades by climate change. Higher
temperature,shiftingmonsoonsanddriersoilswould
influence production patterns and reduce yields of
food grains such as rice and wheat. Recent Media
reportssaythatIndiaislikelytobedeprivedofsouth-
west monsoon in 150 years. Plant growth and health
mightgetdamagebyhighertemperature,particularly
if combined with water shortages.
ImpactonFoodProduction
By 2020, the food demands for India will increase by
about70percentfromthepresent,notsimplyonaccount
of increase in population, but also due to increased per
capita demand by virtue of economic growth.
Demand will go up not only in the all-
important area of cereals, but also in milk, fruits and
vegetables, animal products etc. To meet the
requirement is a stiff challenge, but it seems to be
achievable, when we able to maintain the balance
environment through Biotechnology, tissue culture
andthepropagationofsuperiorcultivarsinallareas.
ImpactonFoodPrices
According to the report, irrigated rice yields are
expectedtofallby15withtheclimatechangescenario.
It noted that even without climate change, food
process will still raise, but that climate change will
maketheproblemworse.Forinstance,withoutclimate
change, wheat prices will increase globally over the
next 40 years by almost 40 per cent. With climate
change,thepriceswillincreasebyupto194percent.
Withoutclimatechange,riceandmaizeareprojected
toincrease60percent.Thefirstofitskind,thisstudy
combines climate models that project changes in
rainfall and temperature and a crop model to capture
biophysical effectswithIFPRI’seconomicmodelof
world agriculture.The latter projects changes in the
production,consumption and trade of major
agriculturalcommodities.
ImpactonFoodSecurity
Theaccentuatingpressureexertedbyclimatechange
and its likely impact is expected to affect all the four
dimensionsoffoodsecurity-availability,stability,use,
and access.Climate drivers such as changes in
temperature, precipitation, increased CO2
levels, and
extreme weather events and socioeconomic drivers,
such as increase in population, act on physical
conditions (for example, agro-ecological conditions)
andsocioeconomicconditions(forexample,thebaseline
sanitation infrastructure or lack of it) to cause impacts
that manifest as one or more of the four dimensions of
foodsecurity.Moreover,theimpactscanbedirectsuch
aseffectoftemperatureonsoilmoistureorindirectsuch
as climate change,which adversely affects water
availabilityforirrigationbroadlydepictsclimatechange
andfoodsecuritylinkages.Assessmentsoftheimpacts
of climate change on food security have largely been
focused on the ‘availability’ dimension and up to a
limitedextent,onthe‘access’dimension.Veryfewstudies
assess the impact of climate change on food ‘use’ and
food ‘stability’.
RegionalClimateImpact
Regional climate model projections indicate that
besides rise in sea level and melting of mountain
glaciers and polar ice caps, climate change would
also lead to arise powerful cyclones, hurricanes,
droughts, floods, heat waves, storms, heavy rainfall
and many other natural disasters which would occur
morefrequentlyinmanypartsofIndia.Accordingto
India’s National Communication (NATCOM) to
UNFCCC, a trend of increasing monsoon seasonal
rain has been found along the west coast, northern
AndhraPradeshandnorth-westernIndia(plus10per
centtoplus12percentofthenormaloverthelast100
years)whileatrendofdecreasingmonsoonseasonal

4. International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14
70 RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION
1.Agence France Press(2009), “India Carbon Emissions to triple by 2030: Study”, Agence France Press, 3 September.
2.Aijaz, Rumi,(2009), “Personal Interview with Rumi Aijaz”, Urban Planning Expert at the Observer Research Foundation,
New Delhi, 27 July. 3.Ananthapadmanabhan, G, K Srinivas and Vinuta Gopal,(2007), “Hiding behind the Poor: A Green-
peace Report on Climate Injustice”, Greenpeace India Society, October.4.Bard Edouard; Frank, Martin (2006) “Climate
Change and Solar Variability: What’s New Under the Sun?”, Earth and Planetry Science Letters, Vol: 248 pp. 1-14. 5.Barnett,
Tim P.; J.C. Adam, D.P.Lettenmaier (2005) “Potential Impacts of a warming Climate on Water Aviability in Snow-
dominated Regions”, Nature Journal, No: 438, PP. 303-309. 6.Chauhan, Chetan,(2007), “UN Targets Are Flawed, Says
India”, Hindustan Times, 27 November. 7. Cowie, J. (2007) “Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects”. Cambridge
University Press, p. 3. 8.Gerald C.Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard Robertson, Timothy Sulser, tingu Zhu,
Claudia Ringer, Siwa msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav batka, Marilia magalhaes, Rowena valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing,
and David Lee (2009), “Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Cists of Adaptation”, International Food policy
Research Institute, Wasington, D.C.9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), “Climate Change: Impacts,
Adaption and Vulnerability”, (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, (UK) in press. 10.IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change), (2001), Special report on emissions scenarios, summary for policy makers Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
Univ. Press.11.Macey, Jennifer (2007) “Global warming opens up Northwest Passage”, ABC News. 12. Ministry of
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Jyoti,(2009),”Climate Imapct, Risk, Vulnerability and Adaption”, remarks at The Adaptive Respose to Climate Change,
Global Summit on Sustainable Development and Climate change, Conference organized by the Observer Research
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Institute, Los Banos, Laguna.
R E F E R E N C E
rainfall has been observed over eastern Madya
Pradesh,north-easternIndiaandsomepartsofGujarat
andKerala(minus6percenttominus8percentofthe
normal over the last 100 years)
ChangesinTemperature
Changes in temperature and rainfall would bring
out a change in the type of vegetarian in about 80 per
cent of the existing forests in the country. Such
changeswereboundtohaveaverysignificantimpact
on the forests and the wildlife they supported.As the
Indianforestswerealreadyhighlyfragmented,many
species of plants and animals might not be able to
cope with climate change and could therefore, face
extinction..
Conclusion
Since climate change and rising food prices
not only affect agricultural issues, but also affect
broader social, environmental, and security issues,
the appropriate response should involve a
combination of science, institutional, and policy
innovations.Furthermore,accesstofoodisdecreased
by climate change because lower agricultural
productivity will increase food prices. Food
consumption and nutrition are affected by climate
change through its effects on health and the spread
of diseases. Inadequate complementary services,
such as health, education, and insurance services
impair the adequate response of the ultra poor to
these climate change threats Sustainable solutions
to the impact of climate change on the ultra poor
requires additional investment in these services, as
well as in capacity, science, and research.