In anticipation of the second Democratic primary debates, we’ve put together a brief Election 2020 snapshot outlining where things stand heading into the debates and what to watch for during the two-night event.

1. 1
Election 2020 – 2nd Democratic Primary Debate
What are we walking into… What should we look for?
July, 30 2019

2. 2
OVERVIEW
2
+ What are we walking into: Issues of importance,
Attention on campaign, Views of the field
+ Debates: Lineup, What to Look For
+ About KRC Research

3. 3
What are we walking into:
Issues of importance, Attention on campaign

4. 4
IMMIGRATION SEEN AS MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING
THE U.S.
4
+ Gallup has asked the "most important problem" question since 1939, and has done so on a monthly
basis since March 2001
+ Immigration now sits at the top of the "most important problem" list for just the fourth time in
Gallup's trend, having also done so in July 2014, July 2018 and November 2018
Most Important Problem Facing the Country %
Immigration 27
The government / Poor leadership 23
Race relations / Racism 7
Healthcare 7
Environment / Pollution / Climate change 4
Unifying the country 4
Economy in general 3
Gallup Poll, July 1-12, 2019

5. 5
MENTIONS OF IMMIGRATION AS MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
FACING THE U.S. HAVE RISEN AS OF LATE
5
Source: Gallup Poll
+ Gallup began regularly recording mentions of the issue in 1993. Historically, immigration has been
cited by under 7% of Americans with periodic spikes. Over the past two-years, mentions of this
issue being our most important problem have steadily increased

6. 6
ONLY FIVE OTHER ISSUES HAVE TOPPED 27% SINCE 2001
6
+ Over the past 19 years, only five other issues have been mentioned at some point by at least the
27% who named immigration this month
+ These include the economy in general, unemployment, the situation in Iraq, terrorism and the
government
1) Since 2001, the economy has met or exceeded the percentage naming immigration this month on 58 separate occasions
2) Between 2003 and 2007, the situation in Iraq routinely ranked as the top problem facing the country by at least 27% of Americans 21 times
3) Unemployment has reached the 27% threshold 17 times since 2001
4) The government has been cited by 27% or more of Americans as the most important problem six times
5) Mentions of terrorism surpassed 27% on five occasions between 2001 and 2002

7. 7
EARLY ATTENTION TO PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN HITS A
30-YEAR HIGH
7
Source: Pew Research Center Poll
% of U.S. adults have been
following very or fairly closely
+ Historically, attention to presidential
candidates is higher in election years
when both political parties held primary
contests.
+ Early interest in news about
candidates was higher in 2015 and
2007 than it was in 2011 – when
only one party held primaries for
the presidential nomination
+ The 2020 election cycle is the first in
which a majority of adults say they are
paying at least fairly close attention to
the election cycle, despite there being an
incumbent president seeking reelection
How closely have you been following news about
candidates for the 2020 presidential election?

8. 8
A MORE DECIDED ELECTORATE IN HYPOTHETICAL 2020
BALLOT THAN WHAT WE SAW AT SIMILAR JUNCTURE FOR 2012
8Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, July 2019
39%
53%
8%
Vote Trump Vote Against Him Unsure
Vote for Trump or Plan to Vote
Against Him?
40% 40%
20%
Vote Obama Vote Against Him Unsure
Vote for Obama or Plan to Vote
Against Him?
+ With more attention and interest in 2020 campaign so far, we see a more decided
electorate with more than a year to go before the election: Only 8% indicate they
are unsure whether they would vote to reelect the president or vote against him
versus 20% undecided at this point in time in 2011
Source: Marist Poll, August 2011

9. What are we walking into:
Views of the field for Democratic nomination

10. 10
OVER 20 MAJOR CANDIDATES ARE STILL IN THE RACE
10
+ This is the largest
presidential
primary field for
any political party
since 1972
+ Number of
candidates
eclipses the 17
major candidates
who ran for the
Republican
nomination in
2016
+ Only 1 major
candidate has
dropped out (Rep.
Swalwell)

11. 11
DEMOCRATIC RATINGS OF PARTY’S 2020 FIELD: BETTER
THAN IN 2016, SIMILAR TO 2008
11Source: Pew Research Center Poll
+ Democratic voters express relatively high levels of
satisfaction with the Democratic presidential
candidates as a group
+ Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning
registered voters, about seven-in-ten
women (71%) say they have an excellent or
good impression of the Democratic
candidates as a group, while a smaller
share of men (55%) say the same
+ There are only modest differences in these
views among Democratic voters by age,
with those ages 65 and older offering
slightly more positive evaluations than
younger Democratic voters
% of Dem/Lean Dem registered voters who say they
have an ____ impression
Overall, what is your impression of the candidates running
for the DEMOCRATIC presidential nomination? AS A
GROUP, would you say they are excellent candidates, good
candidates, only fair candidates, or poor candidates?

12. 12
HARRIS STOOD OUT IN FIRST DEBATES
12Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll
21%
19%
41%
26%
Biden Sanders Harris Warren
Who Stood Out in the Debates?
Among Leaned Democrats
+ 41 percent say Harris stood out in her
debate performance, easily the leader in
this gauge, a wide 15 to 22 percentage
points ahead of Biden, Sanders and
Warren
+ And among those who actually watched
both Democratic debates last week, the
number picking Harris as a standout
performer soars to 72 percent, well above
any of her competitors

13. 13
HARRIS AND WARREN HAVE GAINED IN THE POLLS
13
Source: RealClearPolitics Average of National polls
+ Following the first round of
debates, Sen. Warren and Sen.
Harris have started to gain
ground on former Vice President
Joe Biden, who remains the
frontrunner
+ The rise in the polls for Harris
and Warren have largely come
at the expense of Biden,
Sanders and Buttigieg
Candidate Avg prior
to 1st
Debate
Avg prior
to 2nd
Debate
Change
Biden 32.1 31.3 0.8
Warren 12.4 14.8 2.4
Sanders 16.5 14.3 2.2
Harris 7.0 11.0 4.0
Buttigieg 7.0 5.8 1.2
O’Rourke 3.3 2.3 1.0
Yang 1.3 2.3 1.0
Booker 2.4 1.8 0.6
Klobucher 1.0 1.5 0.5
Gabbard 0.8 1.0 0.2

14. 14
BIDEN LEADS ON “ELECTABILITY”
14
Best
chance of
beating
Trump
First choice
for
nomination
Gap
Quinnipiac 51 34 17
CNN 43 22 21
ABC/WP 45 30 15
+ If electability is helping Biden retain the lead, other factors are reducing his margin over the
other candidates. Voters’ belief that Biden has the best chance of beating Trump is a
necessary condition for his victory in the nominating contest, but it may not prove sufficient
+ Biden, the candidate widely
regarded as most electable, lags
far behind his electability ratings
+ While upwards of 4-in-10
Democratic primary voters see
Biden as the best candidate to
beat Trump, he receives less
support overall when it comes to
preference for the nomination

15. 15
EARLY CAUCUS AND PRIMARY STATES
15
Source: RealClearPolitics Average
IOWA
Joe Biden 24%
Kamala Harris 16%
Elizabeth Warren 15%
Bernie Sanders 14%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
SOUTH CAROLINA
Joe Biden 37%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Kamala Harris 11%
Pete Buttigieg 6%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Joe Biden 24%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Bernie Sanders 16%
Kamala Harris 13%
Pete Buttigieg 10%
+ While we tend to focus on the national polling numbers, they have no bearing on the nomination.
Three key early-voting states will matter and matter a lot. Here’s how things look now:

16. 16
SANDERS ON TOP IN Q2 FUNDRAISING
16
Source: Federal Election Commission, Axios
25.7 24.9
22.0
19.2
11.8
8.0
4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5
In millions
+ Sen. Bernie Sanders
led the Democrats in
the second quarter of
this year
+ Sen. Warren’s
fundraising was
bolstered by the $12.8
million raised from
donors who gave $200
or less (67% of her
total)
Q2 is Key. In primaries without an incumbent running, one of the top fundraisers in Q2 the year before
the primary has gone on to win the nomination all but two times since 1980

17. DEBATES:
Lineup, What to Watch For

18. 18
LINEUP FOR SECOND DEMOCRATIC DEBATES
18
+ The second set of debates
take place on July 30 and
31 in Detroit and will be
hosted by CNN
+ Candidates qualified for the
debate by polling at 1% in 3
qualifying polls or by having
at least 65,000 unique
donors, with a minimum of
200 unique donors per state
in 20 states

19. 19
LINEUP FOR EACH NIGHT
19
+ Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren lead the July 30 lineup
+ They will be joined by several more moderate candidates such as Gov. Bullock, former Gov.
Hickenlooper, and Congressman Ryan
+ A generational split also will be on display: Buttigieg, 37, and O’Rourke, 46, each have called for the
party to pass the torch. Sanders is 77 and Warren is 70
+ Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris will again share the stage on July 31, just
as they did in the first debate
+ This debate will also feature a diverse mix of candidates featuring the only Hispanic, Asian, and
African-Americans running for the nomination

20. 20
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2ND DEBATES AND ITS AFTERMATH
20
What to look for essentially comes down to two things:
1) Who is going to gain in the polls, and be considered for the third round of debates
2) Who is going to show they are a formidable candidate to take on early front-runners
+ Challenge to rank and file? The latest polling shows that Democrats believe that Joe Biden is the
most electable candidate in the field. The burden of proof is on the other candidates to change the
minds of their party’s rank and file
+ Who seizes the progressive mantle? With Sanders and Warren running neck and neck for
second place, the next debate could help clarify who will emerge as the top challenger to Biden
+ Does Harris continue to gain ground? Can Harris capitalize on the momentum from the first
debate and catapult herself even higher in the minds of early Democratic primary voters
+ Who can sink the long shot? For several lesser-known candidates, the July debates are critical.
With tougher requirements to make the next round of debates, it’s likely many of the 20 candidates
on the stage won’t have a place in future debates
+ At the moment, just six candidates (Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke)
have qualified for the third debate

21. 21
SCHEDULE OF FUTURE DEMOCRATIC DEBATES
21
The Democratic National Committee has sanctioned up to 12 debates, with the early debates featuring
back-to-back nights of primetime broadcasts
Debate When
First Debate June 26 & 27, 2019
Second Debate July 30 & 31, 2019
Third Debate September 12 & 13, 2019
Fourth Debate October 2019
Fifth Debate November 2019
Sixth Debate December, 2019
Seventh Debate January, 2020
Eight Debate January/February, 2020
Ninth Debate February, 2020
Tenth Debate February, 2020
Eleventh Debate March, 2020
Twelfth Debate April, 2020
A candidate will need to either have at least 1
percent support in three qualifying polls, OR
provide evidence of at least 65,000 individual
donations from a minimum of 200 different
donors in at least 20 states
A candidate will need to either have at least 2
percent support in three qualifying polls, AND
provide evidence of at least 130,000 individual
donations from a minimum of 400 different
donors in at least 20 states

22. 22
FINAL THOUGHTS
22
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, Washington Post
+ Polling primary voters is notoriously difficult due to identifying likely voters. Consistent with past
cycles, the latest NBC/WSJ survey shows that only three-in-five voters intend to vote in a
presidential primary election in their state next year. Furthermore, 36% intend to wait until the
general election to vote
+ Most recent Democratic nominating contests have been binary choices featuring a mainstream
liberal versus a progressive or insurgent
 2016: Clinton vs. Sanders
 2008: Clinton vs. Obama
 2004: Kerry vs. Dean
 2000: Gore vs. Bradley
+ Even if the next round of debates narrows the field, there will be nothing binary about the battle
that is about to unfold, at least not for many months

23. 23
KRC RESEARCH
KRC Research works closely with clients to maintain their
leadership on issues, provide perception audits, and
design evaluation programs.
As a leader in communications and opinion research, we
present a thorough analysis of attitudinal drivers and
trends to persuade key audiences on a range of issues,
from health and education to technology and financial
services. We also work closely with clients to make sure
their research and message draw media attention,
regardless of the complexity of the issue.
We are a unit of the Interpublic Group and regularly
partner with IPG companies such as Weber Shandwick,
Jack Morton, FutureBrand, and Powell Tate.
For more information about this presentation or to find out
more about KRC Research’s capabilities contact:
Colleen Learch (clearch@krcresearch.com)
Chris Gallup (cgallup@krcresearch.com)