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ECONOMIC FOUNDATION FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRACY
            NEPAL AND GLOBAL CONTEXT
                                                                                         Keshav Prasad Bhattarai
                                                                                             kpbnepal@gmail.com
1. INTRODUCTORY
In the beginning of 18th Century all countries of the World were poor as their economy was predominantly
based on agriculture. The Gross Domestic product (GDP) per capita lingered around 0.05 percent a year for
millennia. Only after Industrial revolution some countries now known as advanced ones, the per capita
income of those countries jumped to one percent a year while in the 19th century it was 2 percent that was
double than in the earlier Century. Before the 18th century it took 1400 years for world income to double
but that only took 70 years in the 19th and 35 years in the 20th Century(1). In the first century CE, Asia
accounted for 76.3 percent of global GDP while Western Europe that time accounted only 10.8 percent. In
1000 CE Western Europe‟s share of global GDP was 8.7 again in Asia it was 70.3 percent .In 1820, Western
Europe‟s share grew to 23.6 percent and Asia was limited to 59.2 while the Western Offshoots countries
during this time accounted only 1.9 percent. But by 1998 global share of these Offshoots, Western Europe
and Asia was 25, 20.6 and 37.2 respectively.
These days while USA, China, Japan and Germany are four largest global economies but according to Goldman
Sachs in 2050 the four largest world economies will be in the order of: China, USA, India and Japan (2).

82 years ago the great British Economist John Maynard Keynes made a surprising remark – quite
unbelievable that time that there will be no poverty in Britain and other industrial countries in his
grandchildren days - by the end of 20th century. While making this remark Keynes had noticed the
revolutionary march of science and technology and its application in industry. Jeffrey D. Sachs: The End of
Poverty. (3) But Britain and Industrially advanced countries achieved it during the children of Keynes‟s
children – not grand children. China reduced number of people living in poverty from 600 million to 200
million in about 20 years, an achievement unparallel in human history.

The greatest achievement of modern age is that there is no monopoly of any individual, group or nation over
knowledge, science and technology and this is the single greatest contributing factor of prosperity for all.
The massive wealth collected by many countries in the world is the result immense knowledge reserve and
their knack over modern science technology.

According to Third Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010-2011 25.16 percent Nepalese are living below
poverty line.
In 1950 average Nepalese was 19 times poorer than average US citizen, but in 2008 the gap widened and
Nepal became 27 times poorer (4). The gap has widened and by now average US citizen nearly earns 29
times that of the average Nepalese.
   Nepal is among the poorest and least developed countries in the world. Nepal‟s grounds realities
regarding the factors that could contribute to poverty reduction – availability of foods, shelter and job
opportunities to the social and economic safeties – are in are in a completely dismal situation.

According to the Trade and Export Promotion Center, in the fiscal year of 2009/2010 - the total Nepali
export was only 14 percent whereas the import was 86 percent. Total amount of import in 2009/2010 was


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Rs.367.61 billion while the export was only Rs.60.95 billion rupees. The proportion import and export in the
year was 1:6.2 while in previous year it was 1:4.2.

Nepal‟s trade imbalances have been widely increasing year after years. Trade deficit of Nepal in the year
2009/2010 has increased by 41.5 percent (Rs.314.66 billion). It has made it clear that Nepal has to expend
its valuable foreign reserve to import the daily needs. In the mean time, export based industries are facing
trouble due not only to interrupted power supply and labor unrest but the more by corruption. As a result
employment opportunities are narrowed down. If Nepal fails to increase its internal production as well as
its quality, its political instability and internal conflict will further deteriorate and the situation will
further worsen.


According to World Bank per day, over 1000 job seekers from Nepal migrate overseas. During a
period from May 2010 to May 2011, about 400,000 people left the country to find work abroad.

The total amount of remittances that comes to Nepal and its trade deficit is equal in total about Rs. 3
billion. If the remittances earned by people working in India and other countries and brought into the
country by none banking channel is also calculated, remittances claim the single largest share in national
economy. It is those people who are making national economy run.

Globalization has killed the distance. Principally, it is not wrong to work in other countries. China per year
earns $ 25 billion by remittances and India $ 27 billion. But they have developed a package program for
social security benefit for such workers after they return to their country. They also run knowledge and
skill training programs for them, so that they can earn more and live a life of quality in foreign soil. But
Nepal does nothing to help them.

Including Nepal, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan are other poorest and least developed countries in
South Asia. Among 193 member countries of the UN 48 are least developed and among them 14 are in Asia.
The Least Developed Countries represent the poorest and weakest segment of the international community.
They comprise more than 880 million people (about 12 percent of world population), but account for less
than 2 percent of world GDP and about 1 percent of global trade in goods.
David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg in one of their study have presented dramatic variation in per capita
income growth rates in South Asian countries over a period of four decades. Although the region as a whole
has been growing since 1980 with unusually largest share of India, Nepal‟s performance was a bit better
only in 1980s and 1990s but afterwards its performance has been much disappointing. According to the
table given below South Asia‟s GDP per capita growth was low in 70s, and higher and higher in later decades
(5)
    (1980-2000).

Table - 1




                                                       2
Source: World Bank 2010 and David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg

Nepal is a member of community of world‟s least developed countries and it feels proud to be the chair of
this grouping. According to the United Nation mainly three things - low income, human assets weakness
and economic vulnerability (6) have made these countries least developed. These countries with low level
of socio-economic development characterized by weak human and institutional capacities, low and unequally
distributed income and scarcity of domestic financial resources have continuously been falling under chain
of crisis - governance crisis, political instability and, internal conflicts.
Their agrarian economies followed by an unending cycle of low productivity and low level of investment
basically relying on the export of few primary commodities and heavy dependence upon the imports of
almost everything from daily supplies to modern gadgets like computers and washing machines makes them
highly vulnerable to external terms-of-trade shocks.

2. GLOBAL EXPERIENCES OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH ASIAN AND EAST ASIAN
CONTEXT

Dr. Mahbub-ul Haq - the messianic founder of Human Development Theory and Human Development
Report, stated ” the countries of South and East Asia had started at roughly the same per capita income
level in 1960”. But by 2000 the per capita income of East Asian economies was about 27 times higher. (7)
Similarly some of the poorest countries in Africa including Ethiopia and Sierra Leone were better off than
China and India.

The figures in Table 2, shows the GDP level of all Global Regions in the past half century with an unusually
high growth rates for East Asia when compared with South Asia.

Table – 2


                                                      3
GDP of Global Regions 1950-2000 (millions of Purchasing Power Parity – PPP dollars per day)
Region                                       1950           1960          1980             2000
East Asia                                    1,120          1,697         5,052            20,473
South Asia                                   1,019          1,522         2,697            7,369
Asia                                         2,139          3,219         7,749            27,842
China and India                              1,425          2,091         4,146            18,022
Sub- Saharan Africa                          537            846           1,907            2,640
Middle East and North Africa                 506            924           3,230            5,089
Latin America                                1,302          2,105         6,263            9,007
Developing World                             4,900          7,773         20,584           45,561
Developing World Excluding China and         3,475          5,682         16,437           27,539
India
Eastern Europe                               1,896          3,002         7,986            6,591
Non Industrialized World                     6,381          10,097        27,135           51,169
Industrialized World                         10,623         16,411        36,192           56,337
World                                        17,004         26,508        63,327           107,506
Source: The Pattern of Economic Growth, 1950-2000 - Institute for International Economics (www.iie.com)

Table 3

Growth in East Asian and South Asian Countries 2005-2012
                               2005    2006     2007   2008        2009     2010    2011      2012
Bangladesh                     6.3     6.5      6.3    6.1         5.8      5.8     6.0       6.1
China                          11.3    12.7     14.2   9.6         9.1      10.3    9.1       8.9
India                          9.1     9.4      9.6    6.2         7.0      8.6     8.1       8.2
Myanmar                        13.6    13.1     12.0   10.1        4.8      5.1     5.0       5.1
Nepal                          3.3     3.5      3.7    4.9         3.8      3.9     4.3       4.6
Pakistan                       6.9     5.9      3.8    2.4         2.7      3.6     4.0       4.2
Sri Lanka                      6.2     7.7      6.8    6.0         3.5      8.0     7.8       7.4
Source: UN – LINK Global Economic Outlook 2011

As the table below shows- When we look back from the beginning of Christian era all global regions whether
it was Western Europe or Africa or Asia the level of development was about the same and for the next
1000 years the rate of growth of per capita of the world‟s major regions was again following about the
same trends. Even during 1000 A.D. GDP per capita of Asian and African countries was bigger than of
Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and USA. But from 17 th. Century Western Europe began
to take lead and when it was 1820 the difference between Asian, African and Western Europe reached
from double to triple. And when it was 1998, then the difference was more than 10 times bigger

According to Maddison in the year 1000, Asia (except Japan) produced more than two third of world GDP
while Western Europe was producing less than 9 percent. In 1820 the proportions were 56 and 24 percent
respectively. But in 1998 the Asian share was about 30 percent when compared with Western Europe and
western Offshoots countries combined (8).
 If we see the table -3 below we find per capita income was mere crawling a rise of just 50 percent to
accommodate the four fold increase in population. But as Maddison accounts since 1820, world development


                                                      4
has been much more dynamic. Per capita income rose more than eightfold, population more than fivefold.
The growth process was uneven with widening gaps. The growth and income has been most rapid in Western
Europe, North America, Australia and Japan.

Table 4
Level and Rate of Growth of GDP Per Capita: World and Major Regions, 0-1998 A.D.
                                             0       1000 1820          1998   0-      1000-    1820-
                                                                               1000    1820     1998
                                             1990 international dollars        Annual average compound
                                                                               growth rate
  Western Europe                             450     400     1,232      17,921 -0.01   0.14     1.51
  Australia, New Zealand, Canada and USA     400     400     1,201      26,146 0.00    0.13     1.75
  Japan                                      400     425     669        20,413 0.01    0.06     1.93
  Average Group A                            443     405     1130       21,470 -0.01   0.13     1.67
  Latin America                              400     400     665        5,795  0.00    0.06     1.22
  Eastern Europe and former USSR             400     400     667        4,354  0.00    0.06     1.06
  Asia excluding Japan                       450     450     575        2,936  0.00    0.03     0.92
  Africa                                     425     416     418        1,368  -0.00   0.00     0.67
  Average Group B                            444     440     573        3,102  -0.00   0.03     0.95
  World                                      444     435     667        5,709  -0.00   0.05     1.21
Source Angus Maddison: The World Economy – a Millennial Perspective, Development Centre of the
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and development, 2001, page 28.

Some people for long have upheld their belief that the economic growth started with the industrial
revolution in Europe, but some other school of thought claim that economic growth started with the
expansion of university education with the series of scientific and technological innovations in 14th.
and 15th. Century (9).

 A very informative and interesting chart below - (10) shows a population-weighted growth history of the
past two millennia. It says over 28% of all the history made since the beginning of Christian era was made
in the 20th century. When measured in years people lived, the present century, which is only ten years old,
is already longer than the whole of the 17th century.

According to an updated version of Angus Madison‟s figures this century has made an even bigger
contribution to economic history as over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1 A.D. were produced
from 2001 to 2010. The 21st Century is only a decade old. We still have nearly another 90 years to go, and
obviously by the trend seen this century alone would produce a multiple number of goods and services this
world has produced cumulatively in the last 20 centuries. (11).




                                                     5
The figure presented below (Figure 1.) shows increasing number of poor people even though the rate of
poverty has decreased, but the number of poor people has increased in South Asia. The number of poor
living on less than $1.25 a day has increased from 549 million in 1981 to 595 million in 2005. In India, where
almost three fourth of these poor reside, the numbers have increased from 420 million in 1981 to 455
million in 2005 (12).


Figure: 1.
Number of Poor People has increased in South Asia




Source: Ejaz Ghani : The Poor Half Billion in South Asia from World Development Indicators, World Bank
2009

3. DEMOCRACY OF THE POOR AND A POOR DEMOCRACY




                                                      6
Indubitably, democracy is good for all and poor need more democracy than the rich because the power
of the wealth also helps the rich to protect their rights, fight the injustices and advance their
interests, but for poor it is democracy that helps them in many ways.

Noble Laureate Economist Amartya Sen, in his path breaking study on Poverty and Famine – an Essay on
Entitlement and Deprivation (1981) and another similar book written with Jean Drèze on Hunger and
Public Action (1989) (13) have made a detailed research on the famines of Bengal, Ethiopia and other
Sahel region countries and Bengladesh and have concluded that famines, hunger and poverty are not
the result of shortage of food supply or its availability but for the inability of person to acquire food
and other commodities within the prevailing economic, social and legal arrangement denying people
entitlements and ownership rights.

Dr. Sen, in his great work “Development as Freedom” in more unequivocal terms have mentioned that
there is connection between poverty famines and nature of government. Famines have never killed rulers
and ruling elites, neither are they held responsible for that. But when there is freedom, democracy and
independent press, rulers are penalized for such catastrophes so are effectively prevented (14).
Similarly, democracy is valuable in its own right as it recognizes common people as sovereign, helps
people enjoy political freedom to participate in decisions affecting their life and protects people from
economic and political catastrophes (15).

Just this time, as a slur to 21st century human world, Somalia is suffering from one of the greatest
famine in human history. It could kill 750,000 in the coming months, and tens of thousands have already
died. 1. 30,000 children have died in just 3 months. With over 12 million people are at risk. Famine is
not a natural catastrophe – drought doesn‟t have to lead to famine because in every part of the world
this year here and that year there we have droughts.

In an acclaimed book by a renowned BBC foreign correspondent Humphrey Hawksley - with rich
evidences he collected from seven countries representing Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America has
challenged the democratic wave commenced after the end of cold war has reached with most
disappointing results mainly for the poor. The central theme of the book is that in many societies
democracy has made the things worse and as the title of the book indicates has become a killer game
encouraging conflicts and elections in the name of democracy splitting societies on ethnic lines – making
lifes of the people more difficult and worsening public services as drinking water, education, health and
employment opportunities for the poor and needy people.
An Indian interviewed by Hawksley admitted that “the Chinese economy has an inner strength “and
they “are begging”. (16) Questioning the basic logic of democracy that it accelerates development
Hawksley asks if that is so communist-run China been able to raise its people's standard of living more
effectively than democratic India and why direct foreign investment from democratically run countries
are pouring ten times more on China than in India (17)

Renowned British Weekly has recently published a chart comparing India and China. It says - India‟s
income per head, for example, was about $3,200 in 2009 (holding purchasing power constant across time
and between countries). China reached that level of development nine years ago. The lag in social
progress is much longer. A child‟s chance of surviving past their fifth birthday is as bad in India today as
they were in China in the 1970s. Moreover, the chart does not necessarily imply that India in nine years‟



                                                      7
time will be as rich as China is today. That is because China grew faster in the last nine years than India
is likely to grow over the next nine. (18)

A POLITICAL SYSTEM OR LEADERSHIP - JUDGED FOR ECONOMIC SUCCESS
Political leadership or a political system today is evaluated not for its political ideology, but for its capacity
to run a coherent and capable economy able to facilitate growth, vitalize economy and generate
employment. The international recognition and global power status China wields today, is the outcomes of
its massive economic might vital for the political stability and economic security of many countries including
Western Europe and even USA. Whether it is Japan, Germany, South Korea or Singapore, they are
respected for their capacity to produce enormous wealth.

Soviet Union was a great political and military super power, but its weak economy could not sustain its huge
power so was collapsed. The global financial crisis of 2008-09 has deeply tarnished America‟s reputation
as a global power and countries in Asia, Africa and even in Europe are eying for China‟s favor to overcome
their financial crisis.


Top Pentagon officers including Defence Secretary have started to express deep concerns over weakened
position of U.S. to maintain its global commitment for financial constraints.
And China at the other hand has been showing arrogance and has started discussions on punishing U.S. with
the financial weapon it has if US moves on with policy not matching Chinese state interests as its arms
supply to Taiwan. (19) It is crucial for both U.S. A. and China that China has a huge foreign reserve of three
trillion dollar foreign exchange and one third of it is in U.S. treasury bills.


In this context Hawksley submitting the conclusion of his whole book mentioned above - puts readers into a
great dilemma and asks a challenging question: if the world is on the brink of destruction and you are given
a chance to save your family by escaping to Cuba with provision for “far better health care “ or Haiti with
“great mobile phone connection” which one would you choose? (20) .

There is a great writer of our time - Paul Collier‟s who in his extraordinary book “ The Bottom Billion” ; has
concluded that democracy in the countries of the bottom billion countries including Nepal are democratic
only superficially , merely election- focused and causing political violence instead of reducing it. The
democracies in these countries run without any rules, democratic cultures and traditions, and without any
functional checks and balances to protect people in vulnerable situation. There is no fair distribution of
resources among people and they do have no functional legal and political body to hold officials accountable
to law and people. Election for them is a means for capturing state power and public wealth always a “life-
and-death struggle” in which the contestants are driven to extremes contradicting the very basics of
election.

Collier suggests that, the people in 58 bottom billion countries mainly in Africa, Central and South Asia are
getting poorer and are suffering from one or more development traps:

A struggle rages within each of these nation between reformers and corrupt leaders--and the corrupt are
winning. Collier analyzes the causes of failure, pointing to a set of traps, including conflict traps leading to
civil war, dependence on the extraction and export of primary natural resources, land lockedness with bad
neighbours and bad governance all leading to bad economy, anarchy and chaos. (21) He has detailed analysis


                                                        8
on these four types of conflicts traps. Standard solutions do not work against these traps, he writes; aid
is often ineffective, and globalization can actually make matters worse, driving development to more stable
nations.

Collier‟s great research show that before an election, warring parties may channel their antagonisms into
politics, but that violence tends to flare up once the voting is over. What‟s more, when elections are won by
threats, bribery, fraud and bloodshed, such so-called democracies tend to promote bad governance, since
the policies needed to retain power are quite different from those needed to serve the common good.
Ethnic identification predominates among the bottom billion making mockery of democratic rule. Leaders
have no incentive to perform well as people vote on ethnic loyalty rather than governmental competence.
This ultimately causes national identity replaced by ethnic identity; countries are cursed with bitter ethnic
divisions and patronizing instability and corruption. (22)
Still, electoral shortcomings in these countries do not mean we should give up on democracy altogether. It‟s
the cheap imitation that should give us pause. As Collier explains, “democracy is a force for good” as long as
it is more than a “facade.”

But Collier‟s news is not all bad. If democracy (in its limited form) tends to increase political violence in the
poorest countries, the opposite occurs once per capita income reaches about $2,700. These wealthier
voters apparently expect more responsive governments, and are prone to revolt if their expectations are
dashed. Since China recently passed this income threshold, the statistics suggest that it risks increasing
political violence unless it democratizes.

On closer examination of these countries for more than a decade Collier in his another acclaimed book ”
                                          (23)
and other research reports and papers            concludes that democracy in bottom billion countries equals
with bloodshed, loot, murder and even genocide. Further he claims that elections without strong
institutions for promoting accountability are means to the exploitation insurgencies and civil wars. And
ultimately even the insurgencies staged against the exploitation and greed of the elites have been found
focused on the access of financial resources rather than the commitment to people and ideology professed
to serve.


5. FORM OF GOVERNMENT, DEGREE OF GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
When the last century was going to end Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey wrote a book on Nepal‟s failed
development. (24) But that time it would become too early to infer that the development that failed was
going to end the democratic polity Nepal initiated in 1990. The mass of great hope created by the
“Janaandolan 2046” in no time turned into political dysfunctionality and stagnation, working as a catalyst
for anarchy, violence and complete chaos ignited by insurgency, ethnic hatred and political destabilization
as theorized by Collier. The situation moved this way prompted for another Janaandolan and ended with the
election of a Constituent Assembly but again the situation has not improved but worsened for common
people snatching their hope that good days will fall upon them.

When both democracy and development fail in a country indubitably conflict erupts and if it is not managed
effectively then obviously the state order collapses. The vaccum created by the sudden decline of state
authority either will be filled by forces of more violence or terrorism or by international actors, but in
either way situation may not improve.



                                                          9
Therefore, it is more than true that democracy cannot be replaced by any form of government than a
better and more effective democracy with accountable government at all level. But such a democracy
cannot exist in isolation. Consolidation of democracy is to be joined by suitable economic and social
conditions that mainly includes- extract and distribute revenues, produce public goods and maintain state
order by wielding effective monopoly over means of violence (25) The veteran political scientist Samuel
Huntington in his classic work – Political Order in Changing Societies has stated that “the most important
political distinction among countries concerns not their form of government but their degree of
government. (26) Huntington again mentions that in many developing countries like Nepal people lack many
things from food to education and health but for them “there is a greater shortage – shortage of political
community and of effective, authoritative, legitimate government”. (27) In the same place Huntington has
quoted the famous American writer as - “ that there is no greater necessity for men who live in
communities than that they be governed , self governed if possible, well governed if they are fortunate ,but
in any event governed”. (28)


6. ECONOMIC FOUNDATION FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRACY
Level and quality of development and its distributive capacity validates democracy. In simplest terms
democracy for all; for those who are living now and for those who will be living for all the times to come.
The world‟s population now stands at seven billion and is projected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050 – double
than in 1950 (29) The world income would be more than U.S. $ 135 trillion which now is about U.S. $ 35
trillion. With these growth rates to 2050, 40 percent of this income growth will go to low and middle
income countries with average income to U.S. $ 6300 – with better life conditions. And indubitably a world
with U.S. $ 135 trillion in GDP cannot rely on the current production and consumption practices. (30)

But change does not come as an accidental occurrence, it is the outcome of brave and visionary peoples‟
efforts wanting change, working for change and making a difference. The goal of economy according to
noted Nepali acedemician Dev Raj Dahal, is to increase the standard of living of people by sustainable ose
of resources and transformation of society in achiving a better human order (31 ) Emminent economist
Robert Skidelsky says that in economics there are no final victories and defeats, rather economic
doctrines ebb and flow obedient to changes in consciousness and in the world. Further he says theories in
economics are independent and they do not supersede each other. (32)

Skidelsky has also raised another pertinent issue. He says “ideas are not at the mercy of events in any
straightforward way. The disciplines which produce theories exhibit stability through time in their
concepts , techniques and language.” Moreover he explains eventhough the facts are the same but they are
intrepreted in in different ways, so he who controls the intrepretation controls the ideas. (33)

In the lights of general situational analysis and issues as mentioned above here are some policy
recommendations that may help us in curing the miserable state of our economy as presented by a
columnist in a vernacular daily (34)

6.1. Integrated Management of Economy and Ecology
 Failure to absorb the rapid population and income growth would lead to mass suffering and social tension
leashing -social,political and ecological catastrophes. The continuation of extreme cross-country income
inequality could deter international cooperation, betraying the speed and sprit of globalization, despite its
potential to improve everyone‟s standard of living. Rapid population growth also tends to accelerate the



                                                      10
depletion of environmental resources both locally and globally, and can permanently undermine the
prospects for their recovery.
Cruel exploitation of primary natural resources and its export to India in the case of Nepal - is one but
sufficient example that how the natural cover is being damaged and ecological havoc brought in both the
hills and plains with floods and landslides.

Nepal itself has evidenced that when a state is weak, it cannot provide protective shield to environment and
people. This has also put disastrous impact on natural and environmental assets.
Thus protecting the environmental assets and improve governance is one of the biggest challenge of
humanity in the 21st century.
In the last 60 years, we have made tremendous achievement in obtaining knowledge, wealth, health and
human happiness. But, what we have failed in all these years is protecting our environment, prolonging the
life of earth and sustaining the happiness we have achieved.

Desertification has advanced to an unimaginable level affecting 250 million and threatening about a billion
people living in 110 countries and this figure could double by 2050. (35) If deforestation continues at the
present pace, rainforests will have been eliminated from the surface of the earth by 2050. (36)
Obviously, if all developing countries follow the same ecological foot marks of developed countries humanity
will need nine more planets to the size of the earth to meet the needs of the natural resources of the
world population. (37)
Environmental problems like climate change would cause large dislocations in ecosystems fundamental to
human societies and economies e.g. complete loss of world‟s major rain forest, glaciers in the Andes and
Himalayas and rapid acidification of oceans leading disruption of whole marine ecosystem. This could
extinct more than 50 percent of sea lives. Besides a mere one meter increase in sea level by the end of
this century will threaten the lives of more than 60 million people and 200 billion in assets in developing
countries alone. About 400 million more people could risk hunger and about 2 billion people may no longer
have enough water to meet their basic needs. (38)

No doubt, Climate change has become the most formidable environmental threat of our time and this
according to World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick „is one of the most complex challenges of our century.

Again, according to Zoellick as the planet warms, rainfall patterns shift and extreme events such as
droughts, floods and forest fires become more frequent. Millions of densely populated coastal areas and
islands will lose their homes as the sea level rise. Poor people in Africa, Asia and elsewhere face prospects
of tragic crop failures; reduced agricultural productivity and increased hunger malnutrition and disease. (39)
Besides, improving water use and water resource management including protection water reserves at local,
national and regional level is a must for us. Similarly strengthening government and community capacity to
manage climate change and mitigate its possible harms and develop a joint mechanism in managing and
monitoring each other‟s activities affecting ecology.
 Yes in this regard not „ ego- centric‟ but „eco- centric‟ economy compatible with nature, culture , society
and the real –life world inspires a system sensitive economic policy having ability to respond todays‟ and
future need of humanity as well. (40)
Therefore at a time when Nepal is heading towards unprecedented socio- economic and political
catastrophes- nearly a death situation - never experienced in its history, it is time to reevaluate the whole
course of history and remap the future options. According to Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz a near



                                                      11
death experience forces one to reevaluate his priorities and values – exposing the flaws in prevailing
                                                                                                         (41)
economic model and our society as a whole where there are too many people taking advantage of others.

6.2. Protect farm land and increase food protection
One third of the land used for cultivation and animal grazing was almost deserted by the end of last
century. During that time only 25 percent of the surface was suitable for rainwater – reliant agriculture
and 35 percent of the productive land in Asia had become desert. In Latin America 73 percent of dry lands
in agricultural use suffer from a kind of desertification. (42)

According to the estimate of World Bank - by 2050 the world population could be 9 billion (i.e., about 50
percent more than today). Similarly, the world income would increase about fourfold (135 trillion Dollar) by
present ratio. The share of low and middle income country in the world income will be 40 percent to that of
20 percent now. Average per capita income in developing countries would be US$ 6,300 and more than 65
percent of the population by that time will live in urban areas. With rising income and population growth the
demand for food could double. (43)
To supply food for the increased population by 2050, we need more and high quality foods. But, sustained
agriculture growth cannot be achieved by increasing the land area under cultivation. Further expansion of
agricultural land would cost highly to the environment and bio-diversity. Therefore, environment friendly,
high yielding and sustainable crops farming is the only valid but responsible answer available to us.
 This means we need an agricultural revolution and a new sustainable agro trade policy that could ensure our
life and safety in the new millennium. Better policy and programs to answer the problems of land and water
degradation, deforestation and air pollution. Nutrient management, integrated pest management,
conservation and policies and institutions that can promote better practice adapting climate change. (44)
But, this cannot be attained without better and responsible markets for agricultural products. Better trade
practices between and among states is another crucial matter on this regard.

6.3. Market integration and connected Economy
In an age of globalization no country or no economy can exist in isolation. Economy of a nation starts with
individual and community and without local commitment and capacity to run and own projects they are sure
to fail. But Local capacity and commitment depends upon the economic connections among communities and
reinforcing mutual benefits. This will strengthen demand and supply side of the development.

Similar is the case with regional development. Regional approaches, regional thinking and learning from each
others have accelerated growth and development in many parts of the world. A brilliant success story near
to us is ASEAN and a failure story is SAARC- ourselves.

Nepal, India, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Burma at one side and India, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan at
the other side if work together to develop and share the opportunities they have and exploit the huge
resource potential from water to minerals and tourism, in their region. The Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and
Himalayan passes joining South Asia and Central Asia can become a great hub of international trade
bringing huge developmental achievement and prosperity in this part of world.
There is not any reason for these countries locked under huge seas of poverty, deprivation and terrorism.
Starting from easy visa provision and money exchange facility among people to run business among them can
in course of time result in market integration.

6.4. Strengthenning Markets and Regulating its Weakness

                                                     12
Obviously it is market that creates wealth, generates employment, encourages research, developments and
inspires new inventions. A free market is equal to individual freedom, choice, and entrepreneurial
initiative. But if the state fails to offer incentives and motivation to develop a self regulatory market
syatem funtioning accordingly, then market forces degenerates into a greed and loot centre.
Therefore, state has a market role to play and help market forces achieve the national goals – for
example expand better employment opportunities for all, ensure equitable distribution of wealth and
income by means of equal opportunities for all.

Experiences have verified that capital works better at private hands and expands beyond limitation. But
capital is also a public good so its investment must have some social or community responsibility as
demanded by law and international trade regime.
Employment for all and equality of opportunities and well covered social security policy remain at the
heart of a social democracy. But the state can not do it by running market and keeping means of production
under its bureaucratic control. Instead it kills private enthusiasm and national capacity to grow.
 In an age of globalization if a state tries to control capital, individual capacity and private initiatives it
moves across borders more freely and more quickly than air. Waves and technology are not state values
and regulations to control nternational financial and job markets cannot and have not worked.
However, state has a role to play in national and international economy. Stae action is needed to fill the
gaps where the private sector fails to comply with the standard of competency, quality and fairness in
production of goods, services and decisions at both national and international level.
 According to Robert Skidelsky – a British Scholar “state as ultimate protector of the public good has a
duty to supplement and regulate market forces. If we need markets to stop the state from behaving badly,
we need the state to stop markets from behaving badly. (45)

6.5. Injecting Women Power in Economy
A new report from the World Bank and International Finance Corporation IFC released on September
26,2011 finds that women still face legal and regulatory hurdles to fully participating in the economy so
does the economy suffers. The report rightly claims that the world‟s most competitive economies are
those where the opportunity gap between women and men is the narrowest.

Another much acclaimed- World Development Report released on September 18, 2011, with a theme on
Gender Equality and Development also claims that even though Gender equality matters in its own right, but
is also smart economics: Countries that create better opportunities and conditions for women and girls have
raised productivity, improved outcomes for children, make institutions more representative, effective and
accountable and advance development prospects for all. Similarly citing the estimate of the Food and
Agricultural Organization (FAO) the report states that equal access to resources for female farmers could
increase agricultural output in developing countries.
Moreover, it also claims that eliminating barriers that prevent women from working in certain occupations
or sectors would have similar positive effects, reducing the productivity gap between male and female
workers by one-third to one-half and increasing output per worker up to 25 percent across a range of
countries.

Therefore blocking women and girls from getting the skills and earnings to succeed in a globalized world is
not only wrong but economically most harmful, while gender equality will have a huge positive impact on
productivity. According to Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President,



                                                      13
Development Economics - “Sharing the fruits of growth and globalization equally between men and women is
essential to meeting key development goals.”
Take note of Rwanda, a country ravaged by genocide is making tremendous progress with more than half
the parliamentarians are women including the president of the National Assembly.

6.6. Not Aid but Investments and Trade with Country Specific character
Dambisa Moyo - the author of an internationally acclaimed book “Dead Aid - Why Aid Is Not Working and
How There Is a Better Way for Africa” in an interview (46) and in one of her famous article, (47) , has
argued that official aid is easy money that fosters corruption and distorts economies, creating a culture of
dependency and economic stagnation. 10 percent of Africans were living in poverty in the 1970s compared
to 70 percent by 2009. This means that roughly 600 million of Africa's billion people are now trapped in
poverty.

If Africa continues to this aid model, the number of Africans living on less than a dollar a day in the
foreseeable future will probably increase from over 70 percent to 90 percent, and many more failed states,
many more corrupt governments, civil wars, and so on will become a common character of Africa.
 Moyo explicitly claims that giving alms to Africa remains one of the biggest ideas of our time -- millions
march for it, governments are judged by the alms they could collect. “Calls for more aid to Africa are
growing louder, with advocates pushing for doubling the roughly $50 billion of international assistance that
already goes to Africa each year”.

Over the past 60 years at least $1 trillion of development-related aid has been transferred from rich
countries to Africa, and it is rather disturbing to see things go in the wrong direction. About $50 billion
that go to Africa every year has completely freed African Governments from their responsibility. They
don't need to do anything. They don't have to cater to their people; they spend their time courting the
donors to get more money. Instead it is a continent run by thousands of inefficient NGOs targeting only a
small number of people.

Until the governments actually rely on taxation, this cycle will continue to grow. They can just call up donors
to get more aid. Further Moyo has made her point clear that the evidence overwhelmingly demonstrated
that aid to Africa has made the poor poorer, and the growth slower - leaving African countries more debt-
laden, more inflation-prone, more vulnerable to the vagaries of the currency markets and more unattractive
to higher-quality investment. Ultimately foreign aid has increased the risk of civil conflict and unrest as an
unmitigated political, economic and humanitarian disaster.

Even after the very aggressive debt-relief campaigns African countries still pay close to $20 billion in
debt repayments per annum - a stark reminder that aid is not free. Dambisa Moyo has also provided
evidences how the millions of foreign aid reaches into the pockets of African politicians and how a
constant flow of "free" money helps inefficient or simply bad governments in power. With continuous aid
flows there is nothing more for the government needs nothing to do to do – reform and raise taxes, and
run development projects. Indubitably, when taxes are minimal people care little about government
expenses and corruption. What all the African government really need is to court and cater to its foreign
donors to stay in power.

Similarly- New Economics Foundation (nef) an independent British think tank - releasing the conclusion of
a new research during World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2006; stated that between 1990 and

                                                      14
2001 for every $ 100 worth of growth in the world‟s income per person, just $0. 60 reached at its target
and contributed to reducing poverty. For those living on less than one dollar a day that is 73 percent less
than in 1980s in which $ 2.20 in every $100 worth of growth contributed to reducing poverty for those
living on less than a dollar a day.

Therefore, Governments need to attract not more aid but more foreign direct investment by creating
attractive tax structures, better infrastructure development and reducing the red tape and complex
regulations for businesses – with a concrete and measurable provision that how the local population and
host country is going to benefit from it.
Whether poor Asian or African nations should also focus on increasing trade; China as well as India and
East Asian countries are promising partners. And Western countries can help by cutting off the cycle of
giving something for nothing – but killing market opportunities in poorer countries, discouraging private
sector to work more, earn more and bring prosperity in country and at last killing public sector vital for
providing encouraging private sector do their best.

6.7. Promoting the Power of Productivity
In his book The Power of Productivity, William Lewis of McKinsey's Global Institute makes an interesting
point. He says that many developing countries have very large bureaucratic structures, much larger than of
Britain and the USA, had at the time of their development. He points out one challenge such large
bureaucratic states generate: by needing revenues to sustain it, pose a threat to emerging legitimate
businesses and industries-by seeing them as tax.

The issue is not to shrink it but to make it as effective as possible. In resource-scarce low-income states
people are to be encouraged to pay direct taxes even in a token amount and make proud that the
governments run with their money so must be transparent, accountable and come under their regular
scrutiny. In the beginning tax administration may be prohibitive on the ground of financial and managing
capacity but gradually it will bring better results. And if the larger part of the tax collected at the local
level is spent in projects locally decided it creates enormous local enthusiasm for development.

If people fail to take lead in development efforts and pay their share of it will become the prerogatives of
corrupt politicos and bureaucracy. This ultimately will fail development, build more dependency on natural
resource turning into a “natural resource curse” or “natural resource trap” Even Nepal has a long series of
experiences on this regards.

For decades, international institutions have pumped billions of dollars into developing nations in attempts to
remedy their ills through the development of their technological infrastructures, educational systems, and
health care programs.
Yet despite this infusion of capital and attention, roughly five billion of the world‟s six billion people
continue to live in poor countries.
Lewis further offers a practical look at why some countries are rich, why others are poor, and what we can
do about it.

He also argues that the key to reducing economic inequalities between rich and poor countries is
productivity and its links to competition and consumption. It further says that the only one force can stand
up to producer„s special privileges is consumer interests.



                                                     15
6.8. Mass Reestablishment and Relocation Projects
In each monsoon, millions of people in mountainous regions and plains of Nepal and in other developing
countries with similar geography have to suffer a lot from landslides to floods. They have to lose
everything they have –family, land, house and cattle and evacuate the villages under constant fear of
disaster and are forced to migrate with much uncertain future with broken families and communities. This
is common and regular among people living in high mountains slopes and in plains by the riverside.
Beyond this they are living a life away from basic human amenities and facilities – from drinking water and
food to primary health, education, transport and communication. And in all such places of sparsely
populated areas with geologically vulnerable situation providing them with these facilities seems not
possible in other 50 or more years. This has built tremendous tension among people being translated in
conflict and violence too.
 Develop and implement appropriate resettlement projects and strategies for such possible catastrophes
driven mass relocation has become a great challenge for country like Nepal. If not addressed well, this will
undermine basic human rights, increase poverty, vulnerability among people and other forms of social
marginality.
Catastrophic environmental change forced human migration, have been designated as “environmental
refugees” and climate change has been projected by many researches to become one of the major forces
producing mass relocations in near future.
This does not end here but proceeds with loss of eco system varying from socio- ecology, availability of
resources and degradation of farm land.

This will further cause disasters and catastrophes that are closely linked to economic, political and social
factors raising the fundamental issues like equity, justice, and accountability producing landlessness,
joblessness, homelessness, marginalization, social disarticulation, food insecurity, increased morbidity and
loss of access to common property.

Natural disaster, development disaster or absences of opportunities have displaced millions of people in our
region. They have migrated in urban slums and even their numbers are growing fast in Nepal. Their growing
population has not only created pockets of poverty and vulnerabilities but has also been over straining the
capacities of environment and service infrastructures of the urban needs.

Therefore, a planned resettlement and relocation projects for those sections of people as mentioned above
not only protects and expands natural environment but also helps to eliminate poverty and accelerate
development with their economic activities running in an integrated way in such new relocation centre. They
create markets, jobs and new economic and social networks vital for growth and development. It becomes
easier for government and public authorities to develop basic service infrastructures they are bound to
provide needed at a negligible low cost.

For successful implementation of such projects some key issues are to be considered as for example such
relocation sites are to be selected in proximity to resources to livelihoods and employments. Settlement
design and housing are to be oriented to the social and cultural linkages of the relocated people and some
spaces for people to change the design so that they have a sense of honor and ownership.

China has recently initiated such a planned relocation projects for example in Shaanxi featuring high
mountains and steep hills and is highly prone to natural disasters including mud-rock flows, landslides and
flooding as in Nepal . According to the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Land and Resources, more than

                                                     16
2,000 geological disasters occurred in the southern part of the province from 2001 to 2010 incurring a
combined direct economic loss of more than $7.20 billion (48).
 Because of the high human and economic cost of regular landslides and floods, the provincial government
has moved to relocate residents of the hardest-hit areas to other parts of Shaanxi.

On December 7, 2010, the government mapped out an ambitious resettlement plan. More than 2.79 million
people in the province's most disaster-prone and least-developed mountainous areas will be moved over the
next 10 years. They include 2.4 million residents in 28 counties in the three southern cities, Hanzhong,
Ankang and Shangluo, and 392,000 from poverty-stricken Baiyu Mountain area in the north.

Beijing Review also claims that it will be the largest resettlement program in China since 1949, moving
twice as many people as the Three Gorges Dam Resettlement Program. Quoting the governor of Shaanxi -
Zhao Zhengyong, the weekly says - “For the residents in south Shaanxi's mountainous areas, this will not
just be a move from danger to safety but, a leap from poverty to a more comfortable life". And this
obviously can be a model for us.

6.9. Not Fund for Development, but Vision, Program and Institutional Credibility for Development is
the real Problem
In Nepal there are thousands of cooperatives providing credits and savings facilities even in distant villages
with deposits beyond imagination. And number of banks, finance companies and cooperatives and huge
reserve with them have belied that there is shortage of money for investment. But inevitably there is
shortage of vision on how to use the money available for sustainable growth.
 Grameen Bank in rural Bangladesh once was able to collect over $ 1 billion in only nine months. One billion
dollar if could be raised from among poor rural family of Bangladesh, it shows that there is no dearth
money to invest in Bangladesh or Nepal. What one Muhhamud Yunus and one Grameen Bank have done cannot
be considered a magic but a will power, vision and commitment.

6.10. Lessons from the success of The Millennium Villages project
The Millennium Villages project run by UNDP, Open Society Institute and The Earth Institute at Columbia
University has offered a bold, innovative model for helping poorest rural African communities move out of
poverty and met with other Millennium Development Goals. Targeting half million people in 80 such villages
clustered into 14 different sites in 10 countries of Sub Saharan region , the project seems achieving
miraculous success in providing better health care, quality education and women empowerment. These
villages are also gaining greater strides in creating opportunity for growth with better foundations,
promoting entrepreneurship and connecting markets. The success stories of this project according to UN
secretary General Ban ki Moon, has shown that “every region trapped in extreme poverty can break free,
grow, and prosper.” (49)

7. CONCLUSION
The New Economics Foundation (NEF) estimates that between 1990 and 2001 “for every $100 worth of
growth in the world‟s per person income, just $0.60 contributed to reducing poverty below the $1-a-day
line. Communities or countries that have resisted or hesitated to adopt the “development” ideology have
been cajoled, bribed, or threatened into conforming. Foreign aid and trade have been used to increase the
stronghold and profits of multinational companies, mostly under the clever guise of helping poor nations in
their quest to “develop”.



                                                     17
Survival of democracy in a country depends upon the income level of its citizen. According to Adam
Przeworski (50) a democracy would die during any time with per capita income under $ 1000 with ratio one in
twelve. If the income level was $1001 to 3000 the probability was one in twenty eight and if the probability
was between 3001 to 6055 it was one in sixty eight. In countries with more than $ 6055 per capita income
no democracy has ever fallen. Throughout history, 70 democracies collapsed in poorer countries while none
in 37 developed countries.


Institutional quality – including property rights, rule of law and sound management of macro-economic and
fiscal policy is the key to economic growth and prosperity. But there is no unique and non context specific
way of achieving desirable institutional outcomes. Effective institutional outcomes do not map into unique
institutional designs- what works depends upon local contexts, constraints and opportunities.

Attitudinal change on the part of top political leadership towards a more market oriented, private sector
friendly policy frame work with some none interfering but with facilitator or motivational role for the state
works.
A state is association of associations; therefore a social democracy works when we have a strong,
independent, socially and ecologically accountable and just market system -followed by policy and
programmes to ensure minimum economic and social security; and making basic service infrastructure and
facilities available for all and specially poor people.
But, a political, economic and social stability primarily enhanced by strong state's capacity is a must for
this.
Similarly, such a state capacity can only be attained by modernizing political parties and key governance
bodies and structures making these institutions as well as international development agencies accountable
to the people.
A democracy is a certain set of values, structures, working procedures and a natural environment for its
growth, development and success. Therefore it is to be grown and developed in country specific socio-
cultural environment – not copied or imitated and introduced in quite strange situations. In case of social
democracy more attention is to be given to grow it in country specific situations.
For example in a social democracy government accepts greater responsibility towards the socio-economic
need of its population. But when the government does not have money or does have no policy and a program
to make money to perform these responsibilities, then it is no more than a hoax.
Therefore, a weak state, even without resources to run its basic function – maintaining law and order and
making people believe that they live in a law abiding society – where everyone is free to run his socio-
economic and cultural life as per the law of the nation; there will be no peoples‟ economy and ultimately a no
state economy.
 A country – that boasts on begging, that can produce nothing for even daily supplies of the people, that has
to depend upon foreign aids even for equipping government with basic facilities and for minimum needs-even
drinking water, primary health care and pre primary education, cannot claim to be a state rather than social
democratic state.

To expect more and press for more from a government in a fragile country, even without capacity to collect
tax is to force it to fail and ultimately collapse.
Therefore, what we need to do is to build state capacity to perform basic state duties, collect revenue
and use it in a legal way with ensured accountability and transparency mechanism under people‟s regular




                                                     18
scrutiny. This is the way to make the state capable and effective and this opens way to expect from it and
develop it as a social democratic country.

But, poor and week people cannot make a strong state. Similarly a weak state too cannot make its people
strong and empowered. So, a systematic democratic way of working among people, political parties, social
organizations and trade unions and professional bodies can reinforce each other and make them both
strong.
A social democracy in simplest term is a broad based social commitment for common people, a social system
where everyone has a say and share in decisions and be a part of decisions that helps them secure better
life situations. But it is not an economic populism. It does not promise for a windfall or a lottery. It
necessities people work hard make efforts for your better life and no other will do it for you.

It is private sector that creates wealth. State cannot compete with people in producing more and earning
more in manufacturing and and service sector. But government can work far better in making private sector
responsible and in partnership with private sector. Government can run companies producing goods and
services where private sector is not motivated for various reasons. But completely state controlled
companies and corporations, in ours as well as in other countries have become a centre of political loot and
unbearable financial burden to state coffers - snatching money from poor people‟s needs.

In today‟s interconnected and highly competitive global market, only quality goods and services produced in
efficient, reliable, cost-effective way with smooth supply chains allow a country achieve growth and
development.
Developing countries like Nepal coincidentally have been facing two challenges at the same time. First they
have very few quality products to exports and second they have to bear with several trade logistics
barrier.

Equally important for countries like ours is to understand how to address these challenges and dismantle
cross-border trade impediments in a concrete and results-oriented way.
Therefore, improving trade facilitation and enhancing public-private sector collaboration help to attain
competitive edge, promote inter-agency coordination and cross-border cooperation for countries sharing a
common border - is a best way to enhance economy and build a social democracy.

Indubitably,government plays a central role in financing basic social security and investment on social
security. In truer terms investment on social security is investment for wealth creation. But government-
financed services as health, education and training in general , have not helped people gain confidence and
competitive edge. And this has forced a social democracy face with a weak cause. And this obviously is a
sector from where to begin with.


References
  (1).Justin Yifu Lin: New Structural Economics – A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy, World Bank, 2012 page 1.
(2). ( Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere, Public Affairs , New York,2008, page 51-52)
(3)How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime, Penguin Books, 2005, page 3.
 (4) Jose Antonio Ocampo and Rob Vos (edited) Uneven Economic Development, Zed Books and Third World Network in association
with United Nations, 2008, page 1.
(5) David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg‟s Working Paper on The Future of South Asia: Population Dynamics, Economic Prospects and
Regional Coherence, February 2011.
(6) The Least Developed Countries Report 2009, UNCTAD, Geneva


                                                              19
(7) Mahbub ul Haq : Reflections on Human Development ( Expanded Edition) Oxford University Press, 2000, page 217.
(8)Angus Maddison: The World Economy – a Millennial Perspective, Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-
Operation and development, 2001, page 27.
(9) Commission on Growth and Development: The Growth Report – Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, The
World Bank 2008, Page 107.
(10) The Economist on line daily Chart ( Jun 28th 2011 )
(11) The Economist ibid
(12) Ejaz Ghani (edited): The Poor Half Billion in South Asia What is Holding Back Lagging Regions, OUP and the World Bank 2010,
page – 4.
(13) The Amartya Sen and Jean Drèze Omnibus, Oxford University Press, 1999
(14) Amartya Sen: Development As Freedom, Oxford University Press, 2000, page 180-181.
(15) UNDP - Human Development Report, Oxford University Press, 2002, page 3.
(16) Humphrey Hawksley: Democracy Kills: What is so Good About the Vote? , Micmillan, 2009 page 175.
(17) ibid
(18) The Economist, October 3, 2011.
(19) Peoples‟ Daily August 8, 2011.
(20) ibid “Please imagine?”
(21) Paul Collier: The Bottom Billion – Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford University
Press, 2007, page 17-69
(22) Paul Collier ibid page 45-47
(23) Paul Collier: Wars, Guns and Votes - Democracy in Dangerous Places, the Bodley Head, London, 2009, A World Bank Policy
Research Report – The Conflict Trap- Civil War and Development Policy, jointly authored by Paul Collier, Lani Elliott, Håvard
Hegre,Anke Hoeffler, Maria Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis – A Co-publication of the World Bank and Oxford University Press
2003 and a Research paper on Greed and Grievance in Civil War by Paul Collier and Anke Hoffler, March 13,2002.
(24) Devendra Raj Pandey: Nepal‟s Failed Development – Reflections on the Mission and the Maladies, Nepal South Asia Centre,
Kathmandu, 1999.
(25) Larry Diamond: Promoting Democracy in a Post Conflict and Failed States – lessons and Challenges, Taiwan Journal of Democracy
Volume 2, No 2: 93-116.
(26) Samuel P. Huntington: Political Order in Changing Societies, Adarsh Books – New Delhi, 2009, page 1.
(27) Huntington, page 2.
(28) ibid, page – 2
(29) David Bloom – The Challenging Billions, Project Syndicate August 17,2011.
(30) The World Bank, Responsible Growth for the New Millennium – Integrating Society, Ecology and the Economy, 2004,page 1-3.
( 31) Dev Raj Dahal : Shaping Tomorrow‟s Economy – Challenges and Choices for Nepal. ( A Paper presented at a seminar organized by
FES and GEFONT in Kathmandu on July 10-11, 2011)
(32) Robert Skidelsky; The Crisis of Capitalism : Keynes Versus Marx in J.S. Sodhi edited Tracking Globalization – Debates on
Development, Freedom and Justice, Penguin/ Viking in association with Sri Ram Centre for Industrial Relations and Human
Resources,2011 page-110-113.
(33) Robert Skidelsky ibid page 114.
(34) Tul raj Basyal – Karobar National Daily October 10,2011.
(35).Federico Mayor in collaboration with Jerôme Bindé, The World Ahead: Our future in the Making, Zed Books and UNESCO
Publishing House, 2001, Page 178.
(36) Mayor and Bindé ibid page 154.
(37) Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World, page 3
(38) World Development Report 2010 – Development and Climate Change, The World Bank, Page 4.
(39) Zoellick ibid
(40) Dev Raj Dahal, ibid
(41) Joseph E. Stiglitz: Freefall: Free karkets and the Sinking of the Global Economy, Allen Lane 2010, page 274
(42) Federico Mayor in collaboration with Jerôme Bindé, ibid Page 179.
(43) Responsible Growth for the New Millennium - Integrating Society, Ecology, and the Economy, The World Bank, 2004, page 1-2)
(44) Responsible Growth . . . page 9.
(45) Robert Skidelsky : Keynes and Social Democracy Today, Project Syndicate (June 22,2010)
(46) Interview with Dambis Moyo‟s by Joanne Myers of Carnegie Council – April 2. 2009
(47) Why Foreign Aid is Hurting Africa, Wall Street Journal March 21,2009
(48) Beijing Review October 6, 2011
(49) Ban Ki Moon: The Power to End Poverty, Project Syndicate (October 3, 2011)
(50) Self Enforcing Democracy, Department of Politics – New York University, June 28, 2005


                                                                  20
Note: This is the updated version of the working paper was prepared for a workshop jointly organized by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
(FES) Nepal and T.P. Acharya Memorial Foundation, Kathmandu on November 17, 2011.




                                                                21

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Economic foundation for a successful democracy

  • 1. ECONOMIC FOUNDATION FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRACY NEPAL AND GLOBAL CONTEXT Keshav Prasad Bhattarai kpbnepal@gmail.com 1. INTRODUCTORY In the beginning of 18th Century all countries of the World were poor as their economy was predominantly based on agriculture. The Gross Domestic product (GDP) per capita lingered around 0.05 percent a year for millennia. Only after Industrial revolution some countries now known as advanced ones, the per capita income of those countries jumped to one percent a year while in the 19th century it was 2 percent that was double than in the earlier Century. Before the 18th century it took 1400 years for world income to double but that only took 70 years in the 19th and 35 years in the 20th Century(1). In the first century CE, Asia accounted for 76.3 percent of global GDP while Western Europe that time accounted only 10.8 percent. In 1000 CE Western Europe‟s share of global GDP was 8.7 again in Asia it was 70.3 percent .In 1820, Western Europe‟s share grew to 23.6 percent and Asia was limited to 59.2 while the Western Offshoots countries during this time accounted only 1.9 percent. But by 1998 global share of these Offshoots, Western Europe and Asia was 25, 20.6 and 37.2 respectively. These days while USA, China, Japan and Germany are four largest global economies but according to Goldman Sachs in 2050 the four largest world economies will be in the order of: China, USA, India and Japan (2). 82 years ago the great British Economist John Maynard Keynes made a surprising remark – quite unbelievable that time that there will be no poverty in Britain and other industrial countries in his grandchildren days - by the end of 20th century. While making this remark Keynes had noticed the revolutionary march of science and technology and its application in industry. Jeffrey D. Sachs: The End of Poverty. (3) But Britain and Industrially advanced countries achieved it during the children of Keynes‟s children – not grand children. China reduced number of people living in poverty from 600 million to 200 million in about 20 years, an achievement unparallel in human history. The greatest achievement of modern age is that there is no monopoly of any individual, group or nation over knowledge, science and technology and this is the single greatest contributing factor of prosperity for all. The massive wealth collected by many countries in the world is the result immense knowledge reserve and their knack over modern science technology. According to Third Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010-2011 25.16 percent Nepalese are living below poverty line. In 1950 average Nepalese was 19 times poorer than average US citizen, but in 2008 the gap widened and Nepal became 27 times poorer (4). The gap has widened and by now average US citizen nearly earns 29 times that of the average Nepalese. Nepal is among the poorest and least developed countries in the world. Nepal‟s grounds realities regarding the factors that could contribute to poverty reduction – availability of foods, shelter and job opportunities to the social and economic safeties – are in are in a completely dismal situation. According to the Trade and Export Promotion Center, in the fiscal year of 2009/2010 - the total Nepali export was only 14 percent whereas the import was 86 percent. Total amount of import in 2009/2010 was 1
  • 2. Rs.367.61 billion while the export was only Rs.60.95 billion rupees. The proportion import and export in the year was 1:6.2 while in previous year it was 1:4.2. Nepal‟s trade imbalances have been widely increasing year after years. Trade deficit of Nepal in the year 2009/2010 has increased by 41.5 percent (Rs.314.66 billion). It has made it clear that Nepal has to expend its valuable foreign reserve to import the daily needs. In the mean time, export based industries are facing trouble due not only to interrupted power supply and labor unrest but the more by corruption. As a result employment opportunities are narrowed down. If Nepal fails to increase its internal production as well as its quality, its political instability and internal conflict will further deteriorate and the situation will further worsen. According to World Bank per day, over 1000 job seekers from Nepal migrate overseas. During a period from May 2010 to May 2011, about 400,000 people left the country to find work abroad. The total amount of remittances that comes to Nepal and its trade deficit is equal in total about Rs. 3 billion. If the remittances earned by people working in India and other countries and brought into the country by none banking channel is also calculated, remittances claim the single largest share in national economy. It is those people who are making national economy run. Globalization has killed the distance. Principally, it is not wrong to work in other countries. China per year earns $ 25 billion by remittances and India $ 27 billion. But they have developed a package program for social security benefit for such workers after they return to their country. They also run knowledge and skill training programs for them, so that they can earn more and live a life of quality in foreign soil. But Nepal does nothing to help them. Including Nepal, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan are other poorest and least developed countries in South Asia. Among 193 member countries of the UN 48 are least developed and among them 14 are in Asia. The Least Developed Countries represent the poorest and weakest segment of the international community. They comprise more than 880 million people (about 12 percent of world population), but account for less than 2 percent of world GDP and about 1 percent of global trade in goods. David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg in one of their study have presented dramatic variation in per capita income growth rates in South Asian countries over a period of four decades. Although the region as a whole has been growing since 1980 with unusually largest share of India, Nepal‟s performance was a bit better only in 1980s and 1990s but afterwards its performance has been much disappointing. According to the table given below South Asia‟s GDP per capita growth was low in 70s, and higher and higher in later decades (5) (1980-2000). Table - 1 2
  • 3. Source: World Bank 2010 and David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg Nepal is a member of community of world‟s least developed countries and it feels proud to be the chair of this grouping. According to the United Nation mainly three things - low income, human assets weakness and economic vulnerability (6) have made these countries least developed. These countries with low level of socio-economic development characterized by weak human and institutional capacities, low and unequally distributed income and scarcity of domestic financial resources have continuously been falling under chain of crisis - governance crisis, political instability and, internal conflicts. Their agrarian economies followed by an unending cycle of low productivity and low level of investment basically relying on the export of few primary commodities and heavy dependence upon the imports of almost everything from daily supplies to modern gadgets like computers and washing machines makes them highly vulnerable to external terms-of-trade shocks. 2. GLOBAL EXPERIENCES OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH ASIAN AND EAST ASIAN CONTEXT Dr. Mahbub-ul Haq - the messianic founder of Human Development Theory and Human Development Report, stated ” the countries of South and East Asia had started at roughly the same per capita income level in 1960”. But by 2000 the per capita income of East Asian economies was about 27 times higher. (7) Similarly some of the poorest countries in Africa including Ethiopia and Sierra Leone were better off than China and India. The figures in Table 2, shows the GDP level of all Global Regions in the past half century with an unusually high growth rates for East Asia when compared with South Asia. Table – 2 3
  • 4. GDP of Global Regions 1950-2000 (millions of Purchasing Power Parity – PPP dollars per day) Region 1950 1960 1980 2000 East Asia 1,120 1,697 5,052 20,473 South Asia 1,019 1,522 2,697 7,369 Asia 2,139 3,219 7,749 27,842 China and India 1,425 2,091 4,146 18,022 Sub- Saharan Africa 537 846 1,907 2,640 Middle East and North Africa 506 924 3,230 5,089 Latin America 1,302 2,105 6,263 9,007 Developing World 4,900 7,773 20,584 45,561 Developing World Excluding China and 3,475 5,682 16,437 27,539 India Eastern Europe 1,896 3,002 7,986 6,591 Non Industrialized World 6,381 10,097 27,135 51,169 Industrialized World 10,623 16,411 36,192 56,337 World 17,004 26,508 63,327 107,506 Source: The Pattern of Economic Growth, 1950-2000 - Institute for International Economics (www.iie.com) Table 3 Growth in East Asian and South Asian Countries 2005-2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bangladesh 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 China 11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.1 10.3 9.1 8.9 India 9.1 9.4 9.6 6.2 7.0 8.6 8.1 8.2 Myanmar 13.6 13.1 12.0 10.1 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 Nepal 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.9 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.6 Pakistan 6.9 5.9 3.8 2.4 2.7 3.6 4.0 4.2 Sri Lanka 6.2 7.7 6.8 6.0 3.5 8.0 7.8 7.4 Source: UN – LINK Global Economic Outlook 2011 As the table below shows- When we look back from the beginning of Christian era all global regions whether it was Western Europe or Africa or Asia the level of development was about the same and for the next 1000 years the rate of growth of per capita of the world‟s major regions was again following about the same trends. Even during 1000 A.D. GDP per capita of Asian and African countries was bigger than of Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and USA. But from 17 th. Century Western Europe began to take lead and when it was 1820 the difference between Asian, African and Western Europe reached from double to triple. And when it was 1998, then the difference was more than 10 times bigger According to Maddison in the year 1000, Asia (except Japan) produced more than two third of world GDP while Western Europe was producing less than 9 percent. In 1820 the proportions were 56 and 24 percent respectively. But in 1998 the Asian share was about 30 percent when compared with Western Europe and western Offshoots countries combined (8). If we see the table -3 below we find per capita income was mere crawling a rise of just 50 percent to accommodate the four fold increase in population. But as Maddison accounts since 1820, world development 4
  • 5. has been much more dynamic. Per capita income rose more than eightfold, population more than fivefold. The growth process was uneven with widening gaps. The growth and income has been most rapid in Western Europe, North America, Australia and Japan. Table 4 Level and Rate of Growth of GDP Per Capita: World and Major Regions, 0-1998 A.D. 0 1000 1820 1998 0- 1000- 1820- 1000 1820 1998 1990 international dollars Annual average compound growth rate Western Europe 450 400 1,232 17,921 -0.01 0.14 1.51 Australia, New Zealand, Canada and USA 400 400 1,201 26,146 0.00 0.13 1.75 Japan 400 425 669 20,413 0.01 0.06 1.93 Average Group A 443 405 1130 21,470 -0.01 0.13 1.67 Latin America 400 400 665 5,795 0.00 0.06 1.22 Eastern Europe and former USSR 400 400 667 4,354 0.00 0.06 1.06 Asia excluding Japan 450 450 575 2,936 0.00 0.03 0.92 Africa 425 416 418 1,368 -0.00 0.00 0.67 Average Group B 444 440 573 3,102 -0.00 0.03 0.95 World 444 435 667 5,709 -0.00 0.05 1.21 Source Angus Maddison: The World Economy – a Millennial Perspective, Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and development, 2001, page 28. Some people for long have upheld their belief that the economic growth started with the industrial revolution in Europe, but some other school of thought claim that economic growth started with the expansion of university education with the series of scientific and technological innovations in 14th. and 15th. Century (9). A very informative and interesting chart below - (10) shows a population-weighted growth history of the past two millennia. It says over 28% of all the history made since the beginning of Christian era was made in the 20th century. When measured in years people lived, the present century, which is only ten years old, is already longer than the whole of the 17th century. According to an updated version of Angus Madison‟s figures this century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history as over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1 A.D. were produced from 2001 to 2010. The 21st Century is only a decade old. We still have nearly another 90 years to go, and obviously by the trend seen this century alone would produce a multiple number of goods and services this world has produced cumulatively in the last 20 centuries. (11). 5
  • 6. The figure presented below (Figure 1.) shows increasing number of poor people even though the rate of poverty has decreased, but the number of poor people has increased in South Asia. The number of poor living on less than $1.25 a day has increased from 549 million in 1981 to 595 million in 2005. In India, where almost three fourth of these poor reside, the numbers have increased from 420 million in 1981 to 455 million in 2005 (12). Figure: 1. Number of Poor People has increased in South Asia Source: Ejaz Ghani : The Poor Half Billion in South Asia from World Development Indicators, World Bank 2009 3. DEMOCRACY OF THE POOR AND A POOR DEMOCRACY 6
  • 7. Indubitably, democracy is good for all and poor need more democracy than the rich because the power of the wealth also helps the rich to protect their rights, fight the injustices and advance their interests, but for poor it is democracy that helps them in many ways. Noble Laureate Economist Amartya Sen, in his path breaking study on Poverty and Famine – an Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation (1981) and another similar book written with Jean Drèze on Hunger and Public Action (1989) (13) have made a detailed research on the famines of Bengal, Ethiopia and other Sahel region countries and Bengladesh and have concluded that famines, hunger and poverty are not the result of shortage of food supply or its availability but for the inability of person to acquire food and other commodities within the prevailing economic, social and legal arrangement denying people entitlements and ownership rights. Dr. Sen, in his great work “Development as Freedom” in more unequivocal terms have mentioned that there is connection between poverty famines and nature of government. Famines have never killed rulers and ruling elites, neither are they held responsible for that. But when there is freedom, democracy and independent press, rulers are penalized for such catastrophes so are effectively prevented (14). Similarly, democracy is valuable in its own right as it recognizes common people as sovereign, helps people enjoy political freedom to participate in decisions affecting their life and protects people from economic and political catastrophes (15). Just this time, as a slur to 21st century human world, Somalia is suffering from one of the greatest famine in human history. It could kill 750,000 in the coming months, and tens of thousands have already died. 1. 30,000 children have died in just 3 months. With over 12 million people are at risk. Famine is not a natural catastrophe – drought doesn‟t have to lead to famine because in every part of the world this year here and that year there we have droughts. In an acclaimed book by a renowned BBC foreign correspondent Humphrey Hawksley - with rich evidences he collected from seven countries representing Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America has challenged the democratic wave commenced after the end of cold war has reached with most disappointing results mainly for the poor. The central theme of the book is that in many societies democracy has made the things worse and as the title of the book indicates has become a killer game encouraging conflicts and elections in the name of democracy splitting societies on ethnic lines – making lifes of the people more difficult and worsening public services as drinking water, education, health and employment opportunities for the poor and needy people. An Indian interviewed by Hawksley admitted that “the Chinese economy has an inner strength “and they “are begging”. (16) Questioning the basic logic of democracy that it accelerates development Hawksley asks if that is so communist-run China been able to raise its people's standard of living more effectively than democratic India and why direct foreign investment from democratically run countries are pouring ten times more on China than in India (17) Renowned British Weekly has recently published a chart comparing India and China. It says - India‟s income per head, for example, was about $3,200 in 2009 (holding purchasing power constant across time and between countries). China reached that level of development nine years ago. The lag in social progress is much longer. A child‟s chance of surviving past their fifth birthday is as bad in India today as they were in China in the 1970s. Moreover, the chart does not necessarily imply that India in nine years‟ 7
  • 8. time will be as rich as China is today. That is because China grew faster in the last nine years than India is likely to grow over the next nine. (18) A POLITICAL SYSTEM OR LEADERSHIP - JUDGED FOR ECONOMIC SUCCESS Political leadership or a political system today is evaluated not for its political ideology, but for its capacity to run a coherent and capable economy able to facilitate growth, vitalize economy and generate employment. The international recognition and global power status China wields today, is the outcomes of its massive economic might vital for the political stability and economic security of many countries including Western Europe and even USA. Whether it is Japan, Germany, South Korea or Singapore, they are respected for their capacity to produce enormous wealth. Soviet Union was a great political and military super power, but its weak economy could not sustain its huge power so was collapsed. The global financial crisis of 2008-09 has deeply tarnished America‟s reputation as a global power and countries in Asia, Africa and even in Europe are eying for China‟s favor to overcome their financial crisis. Top Pentagon officers including Defence Secretary have started to express deep concerns over weakened position of U.S. to maintain its global commitment for financial constraints. And China at the other hand has been showing arrogance and has started discussions on punishing U.S. with the financial weapon it has if US moves on with policy not matching Chinese state interests as its arms supply to Taiwan. (19) It is crucial for both U.S. A. and China that China has a huge foreign reserve of three trillion dollar foreign exchange and one third of it is in U.S. treasury bills. In this context Hawksley submitting the conclusion of his whole book mentioned above - puts readers into a great dilemma and asks a challenging question: if the world is on the brink of destruction and you are given a chance to save your family by escaping to Cuba with provision for “far better health care “ or Haiti with “great mobile phone connection” which one would you choose? (20) . There is a great writer of our time - Paul Collier‟s who in his extraordinary book “ The Bottom Billion” ; has concluded that democracy in the countries of the bottom billion countries including Nepal are democratic only superficially , merely election- focused and causing political violence instead of reducing it. The democracies in these countries run without any rules, democratic cultures and traditions, and without any functional checks and balances to protect people in vulnerable situation. There is no fair distribution of resources among people and they do have no functional legal and political body to hold officials accountable to law and people. Election for them is a means for capturing state power and public wealth always a “life- and-death struggle” in which the contestants are driven to extremes contradicting the very basics of election. Collier suggests that, the people in 58 bottom billion countries mainly in Africa, Central and South Asia are getting poorer and are suffering from one or more development traps: A struggle rages within each of these nation between reformers and corrupt leaders--and the corrupt are winning. Collier analyzes the causes of failure, pointing to a set of traps, including conflict traps leading to civil war, dependence on the extraction and export of primary natural resources, land lockedness with bad neighbours and bad governance all leading to bad economy, anarchy and chaos. (21) He has detailed analysis 8
  • 9. on these four types of conflicts traps. Standard solutions do not work against these traps, he writes; aid is often ineffective, and globalization can actually make matters worse, driving development to more stable nations. Collier‟s great research show that before an election, warring parties may channel their antagonisms into politics, but that violence tends to flare up once the voting is over. What‟s more, when elections are won by threats, bribery, fraud and bloodshed, such so-called democracies tend to promote bad governance, since the policies needed to retain power are quite different from those needed to serve the common good. Ethnic identification predominates among the bottom billion making mockery of democratic rule. Leaders have no incentive to perform well as people vote on ethnic loyalty rather than governmental competence. This ultimately causes national identity replaced by ethnic identity; countries are cursed with bitter ethnic divisions and patronizing instability and corruption. (22) Still, electoral shortcomings in these countries do not mean we should give up on democracy altogether. It‟s the cheap imitation that should give us pause. As Collier explains, “democracy is a force for good” as long as it is more than a “facade.” But Collier‟s news is not all bad. If democracy (in its limited form) tends to increase political violence in the poorest countries, the opposite occurs once per capita income reaches about $2,700. These wealthier voters apparently expect more responsive governments, and are prone to revolt if their expectations are dashed. Since China recently passed this income threshold, the statistics suggest that it risks increasing political violence unless it democratizes. On closer examination of these countries for more than a decade Collier in his another acclaimed book ” (23) and other research reports and papers concludes that democracy in bottom billion countries equals with bloodshed, loot, murder and even genocide. Further he claims that elections without strong institutions for promoting accountability are means to the exploitation insurgencies and civil wars. And ultimately even the insurgencies staged against the exploitation and greed of the elites have been found focused on the access of financial resources rather than the commitment to people and ideology professed to serve. 5. FORM OF GOVERNMENT, DEGREE OF GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT When the last century was going to end Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey wrote a book on Nepal‟s failed development. (24) But that time it would become too early to infer that the development that failed was going to end the democratic polity Nepal initiated in 1990. The mass of great hope created by the “Janaandolan 2046” in no time turned into political dysfunctionality and stagnation, working as a catalyst for anarchy, violence and complete chaos ignited by insurgency, ethnic hatred and political destabilization as theorized by Collier. The situation moved this way prompted for another Janaandolan and ended with the election of a Constituent Assembly but again the situation has not improved but worsened for common people snatching their hope that good days will fall upon them. When both democracy and development fail in a country indubitably conflict erupts and if it is not managed effectively then obviously the state order collapses. The vaccum created by the sudden decline of state authority either will be filled by forces of more violence or terrorism or by international actors, but in either way situation may not improve. 9
  • 10. Therefore, it is more than true that democracy cannot be replaced by any form of government than a better and more effective democracy with accountable government at all level. But such a democracy cannot exist in isolation. Consolidation of democracy is to be joined by suitable economic and social conditions that mainly includes- extract and distribute revenues, produce public goods and maintain state order by wielding effective monopoly over means of violence (25) The veteran political scientist Samuel Huntington in his classic work – Political Order in Changing Societies has stated that “the most important political distinction among countries concerns not their form of government but their degree of government. (26) Huntington again mentions that in many developing countries like Nepal people lack many things from food to education and health but for them “there is a greater shortage – shortage of political community and of effective, authoritative, legitimate government”. (27) In the same place Huntington has quoted the famous American writer as - “ that there is no greater necessity for men who live in communities than that they be governed , self governed if possible, well governed if they are fortunate ,but in any event governed”. (28) 6. ECONOMIC FOUNDATION FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRACY Level and quality of development and its distributive capacity validates democracy. In simplest terms democracy for all; for those who are living now and for those who will be living for all the times to come. The world‟s population now stands at seven billion and is projected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050 – double than in 1950 (29) The world income would be more than U.S. $ 135 trillion which now is about U.S. $ 35 trillion. With these growth rates to 2050, 40 percent of this income growth will go to low and middle income countries with average income to U.S. $ 6300 – with better life conditions. And indubitably a world with U.S. $ 135 trillion in GDP cannot rely on the current production and consumption practices. (30) But change does not come as an accidental occurrence, it is the outcome of brave and visionary peoples‟ efforts wanting change, working for change and making a difference. The goal of economy according to noted Nepali acedemician Dev Raj Dahal, is to increase the standard of living of people by sustainable ose of resources and transformation of society in achiving a better human order (31 ) Emminent economist Robert Skidelsky says that in economics there are no final victories and defeats, rather economic doctrines ebb and flow obedient to changes in consciousness and in the world. Further he says theories in economics are independent and they do not supersede each other. (32) Skidelsky has also raised another pertinent issue. He says “ideas are not at the mercy of events in any straightforward way. The disciplines which produce theories exhibit stability through time in their concepts , techniques and language.” Moreover he explains eventhough the facts are the same but they are intrepreted in in different ways, so he who controls the intrepretation controls the ideas. (33) In the lights of general situational analysis and issues as mentioned above here are some policy recommendations that may help us in curing the miserable state of our economy as presented by a columnist in a vernacular daily (34) 6.1. Integrated Management of Economy and Ecology Failure to absorb the rapid population and income growth would lead to mass suffering and social tension leashing -social,political and ecological catastrophes. The continuation of extreme cross-country income inequality could deter international cooperation, betraying the speed and sprit of globalization, despite its potential to improve everyone‟s standard of living. Rapid population growth also tends to accelerate the 10
  • 11. depletion of environmental resources both locally and globally, and can permanently undermine the prospects for their recovery. Cruel exploitation of primary natural resources and its export to India in the case of Nepal - is one but sufficient example that how the natural cover is being damaged and ecological havoc brought in both the hills and plains with floods and landslides. Nepal itself has evidenced that when a state is weak, it cannot provide protective shield to environment and people. This has also put disastrous impact on natural and environmental assets. Thus protecting the environmental assets and improve governance is one of the biggest challenge of humanity in the 21st century. In the last 60 years, we have made tremendous achievement in obtaining knowledge, wealth, health and human happiness. But, what we have failed in all these years is protecting our environment, prolonging the life of earth and sustaining the happiness we have achieved. Desertification has advanced to an unimaginable level affecting 250 million and threatening about a billion people living in 110 countries and this figure could double by 2050. (35) If deforestation continues at the present pace, rainforests will have been eliminated from the surface of the earth by 2050. (36) Obviously, if all developing countries follow the same ecological foot marks of developed countries humanity will need nine more planets to the size of the earth to meet the needs of the natural resources of the world population. (37) Environmental problems like climate change would cause large dislocations in ecosystems fundamental to human societies and economies e.g. complete loss of world‟s major rain forest, glaciers in the Andes and Himalayas and rapid acidification of oceans leading disruption of whole marine ecosystem. This could extinct more than 50 percent of sea lives. Besides a mere one meter increase in sea level by the end of this century will threaten the lives of more than 60 million people and 200 billion in assets in developing countries alone. About 400 million more people could risk hunger and about 2 billion people may no longer have enough water to meet their basic needs. (38) No doubt, Climate change has become the most formidable environmental threat of our time and this according to World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick „is one of the most complex challenges of our century. Again, according to Zoellick as the planet warms, rainfall patterns shift and extreme events such as droughts, floods and forest fires become more frequent. Millions of densely populated coastal areas and islands will lose their homes as the sea level rise. Poor people in Africa, Asia and elsewhere face prospects of tragic crop failures; reduced agricultural productivity and increased hunger malnutrition and disease. (39) Besides, improving water use and water resource management including protection water reserves at local, national and regional level is a must for us. Similarly strengthening government and community capacity to manage climate change and mitigate its possible harms and develop a joint mechanism in managing and monitoring each other‟s activities affecting ecology. Yes in this regard not „ ego- centric‟ but „eco- centric‟ economy compatible with nature, culture , society and the real –life world inspires a system sensitive economic policy having ability to respond todays‟ and future need of humanity as well. (40) Therefore at a time when Nepal is heading towards unprecedented socio- economic and political catastrophes- nearly a death situation - never experienced in its history, it is time to reevaluate the whole course of history and remap the future options. According to Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz a near 11
  • 12. death experience forces one to reevaluate his priorities and values – exposing the flaws in prevailing (41) economic model and our society as a whole where there are too many people taking advantage of others. 6.2. Protect farm land and increase food protection One third of the land used for cultivation and animal grazing was almost deserted by the end of last century. During that time only 25 percent of the surface was suitable for rainwater – reliant agriculture and 35 percent of the productive land in Asia had become desert. In Latin America 73 percent of dry lands in agricultural use suffer from a kind of desertification. (42) According to the estimate of World Bank - by 2050 the world population could be 9 billion (i.e., about 50 percent more than today). Similarly, the world income would increase about fourfold (135 trillion Dollar) by present ratio. The share of low and middle income country in the world income will be 40 percent to that of 20 percent now. Average per capita income in developing countries would be US$ 6,300 and more than 65 percent of the population by that time will live in urban areas. With rising income and population growth the demand for food could double. (43) To supply food for the increased population by 2050, we need more and high quality foods. But, sustained agriculture growth cannot be achieved by increasing the land area under cultivation. Further expansion of agricultural land would cost highly to the environment and bio-diversity. Therefore, environment friendly, high yielding and sustainable crops farming is the only valid but responsible answer available to us. This means we need an agricultural revolution and a new sustainable agro trade policy that could ensure our life and safety in the new millennium. Better policy and programs to answer the problems of land and water degradation, deforestation and air pollution. Nutrient management, integrated pest management, conservation and policies and institutions that can promote better practice adapting climate change. (44) But, this cannot be attained without better and responsible markets for agricultural products. Better trade practices between and among states is another crucial matter on this regard. 6.3. Market integration and connected Economy In an age of globalization no country or no economy can exist in isolation. Economy of a nation starts with individual and community and without local commitment and capacity to run and own projects they are sure to fail. But Local capacity and commitment depends upon the economic connections among communities and reinforcing mutual benefits. This will strengthen demand and supply side of the development. Similar is the case with regional development. Regional approaches, regional thinking and learning from each others have accelerated growth and development in many parts of the world. A brilliant success story near to us is ASEAN and a failure story is SAARC- ourselves. Nepal, India, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Burma at one side and India, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan at the other side if work together to develop and share the opportunities they have and exploit the huge resource potential from water to minerals and tourism, in their region. The Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and Himalayan passes joining South Asia and Central Asia can become a great hub of international trade bringing huge developmental achievement and prosperity in this part of world. There is not any reason for these countries locked under huge seas of poverty, deprivation and terrorism. Starting from easy visa provision and money exchange facility among people to run business among them can in course of time result in market integration. 6.4. Strengthenning Markets and Regulating its Weakness 12
  • 13. Obviously it is market that creates wealth, generates employment, encourages research, developments and inspires new inventions. A free market is equal to individual freedom, choice, and entrepreneurial initiative. But if the state fails to offer incentives and motivation to develop a self regulatory market syatem funtioning accordingly, then market forces degenerates into a greed and loot centre. Therefore, state has a market role to play and help market forces achieve the national goals – for example expand better employment opportunities for all, ensure equitable distribution of wealth and income by means of equal opportunities for all. Experiences have verified that capital works better at private hands and expands beyond limitation. But capital is also a public good so its investment must have some social or community responsibility as demanded by law and international trade regime. Employment for all and equality of opportunities and well covered social security policy remain at the heart of a social democracy. But the state can not do it by running market and keeping means of production under its bureaucratic control. Instead it kills private enthusiasm and national capacity to grow. In an age of globalization if a state tries to control capital, individual capacity and private initiatives it moves across borders more freely and more quickly than air. Waves and technology are not state values and regulations to control nternational financial and job markets cannot and have not worked. However, state has a role to play in national and international economy. Stae action is needed to fill the gaps where the private sector fails to comply with the standard of competency, quality and fairness in production of goods, services and decisions at both national and international level. According to Robert Skidelsky – a British Scholar “state as ultimate protector of the public good has a duty to supplement and regulate market forces. If we need markets to stop the state from behaving badly, we need the state to stop markets from behaving badly. (45) 6.5. Injecting Women Power in Economy A new report from the World Bank and International Finance Corporation IFC released on September 26,2011 finds that women still face legal and regulatory hurdles to fully participating in the economy so does the economy suffers. The report rightly claims that the world‟s most competitive economies are those where the opportunity gap between women and men is the narrowest. Another much acclaimed- World Development Report released on September 18, 2011, with a theme on Gender Equality and Development also claims that even though Gender equality matters in its own right, but is also smart economics: Countries that create better opportunities and conditions for women and girls have raised productivity, improved outcomes for children, make institutions more representative, effective and accountable and advance development prospects for all. Similarly citing the estimate of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) the report states that equal access to resources for female farmers could increase agricultural output in developing countries. Moreover, it also claims that eliminating barriers that prevent women from working in certain occupations or sectors would have similar positive effects, reducing the productivity gap between male and female workers by one-third to one-half and increasing output per worker up to 25 percent across a range of countries. Therefore blocking women and girls from getting the skills and earnings to succeed in a globalized world is not only wrong but economically most harmful, while gender equality will have a huge positive impact on productivity. According to Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President, 13
  • 14. Development Economics - “Sharing the fruits of growth and globalization equally between men and women is essential to meeting key development goals.” Take note of Rwanda, a country ravaged by genocide is making tremendous progress with more than half the parliamentarians are women including the president of the National Assembly. 6.6. Not Aid but Investments and Trade with Country Specific character Dambisa Moyo - the author of an internationally acclaimed book “Dead Aid - Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa” in an interview (46) and in one of her famous article, (47) , has argued that official aid is easy money that fosters corruption and distorts economies, creating a culture of dependency and economic stagnation. 10 percent of Africans were living in poverty in the 1970s compared to 70 percent by 2009. This means that roughly 600 million of Africa's billion people are now trapped in poverty. If Africa continues to this aid model, the number of Africans living on less than a dollar a day in the foreseeable future will probably increase from over 70 percent to 90 percent, and many more failed states, many more corrupt governments, civil wars, and so on will become a common character of Africa. Moyo explicitly claims that giving alms to Africa remains one of the biggest ideas of our time -- millions march for it, governments are judged by the alms they could collect. “Calls for more aid to Africa are growing louder, with advocates pushing for doubling the roughly $50 billion of international assistance that already goes to Africa each year”. Over the past 60 years at least $1 trillion of development-related aid has been transferred from rich countries to Africa, and it is rather disturbing to see things go in the wrong direction. About $50 billion that go to Africa every year has completely freed African Governments from their responsibility. They don't need to do anything. They don't have to cater to their people; they spend their time courting the donors to get more money. Instead it is a continent run by thousands of inefficient NGOs targeting only a small number of people. Until the governments actually rely on taxation, this cycle will continue to grow. They can just call up donors to get more aid. Further Moyo has made her point clear that the evidence overwhelmingly demonstrated that aid to Africa has made the poor poorer, and the growth slower - leaving African countries more debt- laden, more inflation-prone, more vulnerable to the vagaries of the currency markets and more unattractive to higher-quality investment. Ultimately foreign aid has increased the risk of civil conflict and unrest as an unmitigated political, economic and humanitarian disaster. Even after the very aggressive debt-relief campaigns African countries still pay close to $20 billion in debt repayments per annum - a stark reminder that aid is not free. Dambisa Moyo has also provided evidences how the millions of foreign aid reaches into the pockets of African politicians and how a constant flow of "free" money helps inefficient or simply bad governments in power. With continuous aid flows there is nothing more for the government needs nothing to do to do – reform and raise taxes, and run development projects. Indubitably, when taxes are minimal people care little about government expenses and corruption. What all the African government really need is to court and cater to its foreign donors to stay in power. Similarly- New Economics Foundation (nef) an independent British think tank - releasing the conclusion of a new research during World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2006; stated that between 1990 and 14
  • 15. 2001 for every $ 100 worth of growth in the world‟s income per person, just $0. 60 reached at its target and contributed to reducing poverty. For those living on less than one dollar a day that is 73 percent less than in 1980s in which $ 2.20 in every $100 worth of growth contributed to reducing poverty for those living on less than a dollar a day. Therefore, Governments need to attract not more aid but more foreign direct investment by creating attractive tax structures, better infrastructure development and reducing the red tape and complex regulations for businesses – with a concrete and measurable provision that how the local population and host country is going to benefit from it. Whether poor Asian or African nations should also focus on increasing trade; China as well as India and East Asian countries are promising partners. And Western countries can help by cutting off the cycle of giving something for nothing – but killing market opportunities in poorer countries, discouraging private sector to work more, earn more and bring prosperity in country and at last killing public sector vital for providing encouraging private sector do their best. 6.7. Promoting the Power of Productivity In his book The Power of Productivity, William Lewis of McKinsey's Global Institute makes an interesting point. He says that many developing countries have very large bureaucratic structures, much larger than of Britain and the USA, had at the time of their development. He points out one challenge such large bureaucratic states generate: by needing revenues to sustain it, pose a threat to emerging legitimate businesses and industries-by seeing them as tax. The issue is not to shrink it but to make it as effective as possible. In resource-scarce low-income states people are to be encouraged to pay direct taxes even in a token amount and make proud that the governments run with their money so must be transparent, accountable and come under their regular scrutiny. In the beginning tax administration may be prohibitive on the ground of financial and managing capacity but gradually it will bring better results. And if the larger part of the tax collected at the local level is spent in projects locally decided it creates enormous local enthusiasm for development. If people fail to take lead in development efforts and pay their share of it will become the prerogatives of corrupt politicos and bureaucracy. This ultimately will fail development, build more dependency on natural resource turning into a “natural resource curse” or “natural resource trap” Even Nepal has a long series of experiences on this regards. For decades, international institutions have pumped billions of dollars into developing nations in attempts to remedy their ills through the development of their technological infrastructures, educational systems, and health care programs. Yet despite this infusion of capital and attention, roughly five billion of the world‟s six billion people continue to live in poor countries. Lewis further offers a practical look at why some countries are rich, why others are poor, and what we can do about it. He also argues that the key to reducing economic inequalities between rich and poor countries is productivity and its links to competition and consumption. It further says that the only one force can stand up to producer„s special privileges is consumer interests. 15
  • 16. 6.8. Mass Reestablishment and Relocation Projects In each monsoon, millions of people in mountainous regions and plains of Nepal and in other developing countries with similar geography have to suffer a lot from landslides to floods. They have to lose everything they have –family, land, house and cattle and evacuate the villages under constant fear of disaster and are forced to migrate with much uncertain future with broken families and communities. This is common and regular among people living in high mountains slopes and in plains by the riverside. Beyond this they are living a life away from basic human amenities and facilities – from drinking water and food to primary health, education, transport and communication. And in all such places of sparsely populated areas with geologically vulnerable situation providing them with these facilities seems not possible in other 50 or more years. This has built tremendous tension among people being translated in conflict and violence too. Develop and implement appropriate resettlement projects and strategies for such possible catastrophes driven mass relocation has become a great challenge for country like Nepal. If not addressed well, this will undermine basic human rights, increase poverty, vulnerability among people and other forms of social marginality. Catastrophic environmental change forced human migration, have been designated as “environmental refugees” and climate change has been projected by many researches to become one of the major forces producing mass relocations in near future. This does not end here but proceeds with loss of eco system varying from socio- ecology, availability of resources and degradation of farm land. This will further cause disasters and catastrophes that are closely linked to economic, political and social factors raising the fundamental issues like equity, justice, and accountability producing landlessness, joblessness, homelessness, marginalization, social disarticulation, food insecurity, increased morbidity and loss of access to common property. Natural disaster, development disaster or absences of opportunities have displaced millions of people in our region. They have migrated in urban slums and even their numbers are growing fast in Nepal. Their growing population has not only created pockets of poverty and vulnerabilities but has also been over straining the capacities of environment and service infrastructures of the urban needs. Therefore, a planned resettlement and relocation projects for those sections of people as mentioned above not only protects and expands natural environment but also helps to eliminate poverty and accelerate development with their economic activities running in an integrated way in such new relocation centre. They create markets, jobs and new economic and social networks vital for growth and development. It becomes easier for government and public authorities to develop basic service infrastructures they are bound to provide needed at a negligible low cost. For successful implementation of such projects some key issues are to be considered as for example such relocation sites are to be selected in proximity to resources to livelihoods and employments. Settlement design and housing are to be oriented to the social and cultural linkages of the relocated people and some spaces for people to change the design so that they have a sense of honor and ownership. China has recently initiated such a planned relocation projects for example in Shaanxi featuring high mountains and steep hills and is highly prone to natural disasters including mud-rock flows, landslides and flooding as in Nepal . According to the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Land and Resources, more than 16
  • 17. 2,000 geological disasters occurred in the southern part of the province from 2001 to 2010 incurring a combined direct economic loss of more than $7.20 billion (48). Because of the high human and economic cost of regular landslides and floods, the provincial government has moved to relocate residents of the hardest-hit areas to other parts of Shaanxi. On December 7, 2010, the government mapped out an ambitious resettlement plan. More than 2.79 million people in the province's most disaster-prone and least-developed mountainous areas will be moved over the next 10 years. They include 2.4 million residents in 28 counties in the three southern cities, Hanzhong, Ankang and Shangluo, and 392,000 from poverty-stricken Baiyu Mountain area in the north. Beijing Review also claims that it will be the largest resettlement program in China since 1949, moving twice as many people as the Three Gorges Dam Resettlement Program. Quoting the governor of Shaanxi - Zhao Zhengyong, the weekly says - “For the residents in south Shaanxi's mountainous areas, this will not just be a move from danger to safety but, a leap from poverty to a more comfortable life". And this obviously can be a model for us. 6.9. Not Fund for Development, but Vision, Program and Institutional Credibility for Development is the real Problem In Nepal there are thousands of cooperatives providing credits and savings facilities even in distant villages with deposits beyond imagination. And number of banks, finance companies and cooperatives and huge reserve with them have belied that there is shortage of money for investment. But inevitably there is shortage of vision on how to use the money available for sustainable growth. Grameen Bank in rural Bangladesh once was able to collect over $ 1 billion in only nine months. One billion dollar if could be raised from among poor rural family of Bangladesh, it shows that there is no dearth money to invest in Bangladesh or Nepal. What one Muhhamud Yunus and one Grameen Bank have done cannot be considered a magic but a will power, vision and commitment. 6.10. Lessons from the success of The Millennium Villages project The Millennium Villages project run by UNDP, Open Society Institute and The Earth Institute at Columbia University has offered a bold, innovative model for helping poorest rural African communities move out of poverty and met with other Millennium Development Goals. Targeting half million people in 80 such villages clustered into 14 different sites in 10 countries of Sub Saharan region , the project seems achieving miraculous success in providing better health care, quality education and women empowerment. These villages are also gaining greater strides in creating opportunity for growth with better foundations, promoting entrepreneurship and connecting markets. The success stories of this project according to UN secretary General Ban ki Moon, has shown that “every region trapped in extreme poverty can break free, grow, and prosper.” (49) 7. CONCLUSION The New Economics Foundation (NEF) estimates that between 1990 and 2001 “for every $100 worth of growth in the world‟s per person income, just $0.60 contributed to reducing poverty below the $1-a-day line. Communities or countries that have resisted or hesitated to adopt the “development” ideology have been cajoled, bribed, or threatened into conforming. Foreign aid and trade have been used to increase the stronghold and profits of multinational companies, mostly under the clever guise of helping poor nations in their quest to “develop”. 17
  • 18. Survival of democracy in a country depends upon the income level of its citizen. According to Adam Przeworski (50) a democracy would die during any time with per capita income under $ 1000 with ratio one in twelve. If the income level was $1001 to 3000 the probability was one in twenty eight and if the probability was between 3001 to 6055 it was one in sixty eight. In countries with more than $ 6055 per capita income no democracy has ever fallen. Throughout history, 70 democracies collapsed in poorer countries while none in 37 developed countries. Institutional quality – including property rights, rule of law and sound management of macro-economic and fiscal policy is the key to economic growth and prosperity. But there is no unique and non context specific way of achieving desirable institutional outcomes. Effective institutional outcomes do not map into unique institutional designs- what works depends upon local contexts, constraints and opportunities. Attitudinal change on the part of top political leadership towards a more market oriented, private sector friendly policy frame work with some none interfering but with facilitator or motivational role for the state works. A state is association of associations; therefore a social democracy works when we have a strong, independent, socially and ecologically accountable and just market system -followed by policy and programmes to ensure minimum economic and social security; and making basic service infrastructure and facilities available for all and specially poor people. But, a political, economic and social stability primarily enhanced by strong state's capacity is a must for this. Similarly, such a state capacity can only be attained by modernizing political parties and key governance bodies and structures making these institutions as well as international development agencies accountable to the people. A democracy is a certain set of values, structures, working procedures and a natural environment for its growth, development and success. Therefore it is to be grown and developed in country specific socio- cultural environment – not copied or imitated and introduced in quite strange situations. In case of social democracy more attention is to be given to grow it in country specific situations. For example in a social democracy government accepts greater responsibility towards the socio-economic need of its population. But when the government does not have money or does have no policy and a program to make money to perform these responsibilities, then it is no more than a hoax. Therefore, a weak state, even without resources to run its basic function – maintaining law and order and making people believe that they live in a law abiding society – where everyone is free to run his socio- economic and cultural life as per the law of the nation; there will be no peoples‟ economy and ultimately a no state economy. A country – that boasts on begging, that can produce nothing for even daily supplies of the people, that has to depend upon foreign aids even for equipping government with basic facilities and for minimum needs-even drinking water, primary health care and pre primary education, cannot claim to be a state rather than social democratic state. To expect more and press for more from a government in a fragile country, even without capacity to collect tax is to force it to fail and ultimately collapse. Therefore, what we need to do is to build state capacity to perform basic state duties, collect revenue and use it in a legal way with ensured accountability and transparency mechanism under people‟s regular 18
  • 19. scrutiny. This is the way to make the state capable and effective and this opens way to expect from it and develop it as a social democratic country. But, poor and week people cannot make a strong state. Similarly a weak state too cannot make its people strong and empowered. So, a systematic democratic way of working among people, political parties, social organizations and trade unions and professional bodies can reinforce each other and make them both strong. A social democracy in simplest term is a broad based social commitment for common people, a social system where everyone has a say and share in decisions and be a part of decisions that helps them secure better life situations. But it is not an economic populism. It does not promise for a windfall or a lottery. It necessities people work hard make efforts for your better life and no other will do it for you. It is private sector that creates wealth. State cannot compete with people in producing more and earning more in manufacturing and and service sector. But government can work far better in making private sector responsible and in partnership with private sector. Government can run companies producing goods and services where private sector is not motivated for various reasons. But completely state controlled companies and corporations, in ours as well as in other countries have become a centre of political loot and unbearable financial burden to state coffers - snatching money from poor people‟s needs. In today‟s interconnected and highly competitive global market, only quality goods and services produced in efficient, reliable, cost-effective way with smooth supply chains allow a country achieve growth and development. Developing countries like Nepal coincidentally have been facing two challenges at the same time. First they have very few quality products to exports and second they have to bear with several trade logistics barrier. Equally important for countries like ours is to understand how to address these challenges and dismantle cross-border trade impediments in a concrete and results-oriented way. Therefore, improving trade facilitation and enhancing public-private sector collaboration help to attain competitive edge, promote inter-agency coordination and cross-border cooperation for countries sharing a common border - is a best way to enhance economy and build a social democracy. Indubitably,government plays a central role in financing basic social security and investment on social security. In truer terms investment on social security is investment for wealth creation. But government- financed services as health, education and training in general , have not helped people gain confidence and competitive edge. And this has forced a social democracy face with a weak cause. And this obviously is a sector from where to begin with. References (1).Justin Yifu Lin: New Structural Economics – A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy, World Bank, 2012 page 1. (2). ( Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere, Public Affairs , New York,2008, page 51-52) (3)How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime, Penguin Books, 2005, page 3. (4) Jose Antonio Ocampo and Rob Vos (edited) Uneven Economic Development, Zed Books and Third World Network in association with United Nations, 2008, page 1. (5) David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg‟s Working Paper on The Future of South Asia: Population Dynamics, Economic Prospects and Regional Coherence, February 2011. (6) The Least Developed Countries Report 2009, UNCTAD, Geneva 19
  • 20. (7) Mahbub ul Haq : Reflections on Human Development ( Expanded Edition) Oxford University Press, 2000, page 217. (8)Angus Maddison: The World Economy – a Millennial Perspective, Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co- Operation and development, 2001, page 27. (9) Commission on Growth and Development: The Growth Report – Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, The World Bank 2008, Page 107. (10) The Economist on line daily Chart ( Jun 28th 2011 ) (11) The Economist ibid (12) Ejaz Ghani (edited): The Poor Half Billion in South Asia What is Holding Back Lagging Regions, OUP and the World Bank 2010, page – 4. (13) The Amartya Sen and Jean Drèze Omnibus, Oxford University Press, 1999 (14) Amartya Sen: Development As Freedom, Oxford University Press, 2000, page 180-181. (15) UNDP - Human Development Report, Oxford University Press, 2002, page 3. (16) Humphrey Hawksley: Democracy Kills: What is so Good About the Vote? , Micmillan, 2009 page 175. (17) ibid (18) The Economist, October 3, 2011. (19) Peoples‟ Daily August 8, 2011. (20) ibid “Please imagine?” (21) Paul Collier: The Bottom Billion – Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford University Press, 2007, page 17-69 (22) Paul Collier ibid page 45-47 (23) Paul Collier: Wars, Guns and Votes - Democracy in Dangerous Places, the Bodley Head, London, 2009, A World Bank Policy Research Report – The Conflict Trap- Civil War and Development Policy, jointly authored by Paul Collier, Lani Elliott, Håvard Hegre,Anke Hoeffler, Maria Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis – A Co-publication of the World Bank and Oxford University Press 2003 and a Research paper on Greed and Grievance in Civil War by Paul Collier and Anke Hoffler, March 13,2002. (24) Devendra Raj Pandey: Nepal‟s Failed Development – Reflections on the Mission and the Maladies, Nepal South Asia Centre, Kathmandu, 1999. (25) Larry Diamond: Promoting Democracy in a Post Conflict and Failed States – lessons and Challenges, Taiwan Journal of Democracy Volume 2, No 2: 93-116. (26) Samuel P. Huntington: Political Order in Changing Societies, Adarsh Books – New Delhi, 2009, page 1. (27) Huntington, page 2. (28) ibid, page – 2 (29) David Bloom – The Challenging Billions, Project Syndicate August 17,2011. (30) The World Bank, Responsible Growth for the New Millennium – Integrating Society, Ecology and the Economy, 2004,page 1-3. ( 31) Dev Raj Dahal : Shaping Tomorrow‟s Economy – Challenges and Choices for Nepal. ( A Paper presented at a seminar organized by FES and GEFONT in Kathmandu on July 10-11, 2011) (32) Robert Skidelsky; The Crisis of Capitalism : Keynes Versus Marx in J.S. Sodhi edited Tracking Globalization – Debates on Development, Freedom and Justice, Penguin/ Viking in association with Sri Ram Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources,2011 page-110-113. (33) Robert Skidelsky ibid page 114. (34) Tul raj Basyal – Karobar National Daily October 10,2011. (35).Federico Mayor in collaboration with Jerôme Bindé, The World Ahead: Our future in the Making, Zed Books and UNESCO Publishing House, 2001, Page 178. (36) Mayor and Bindé ibid page 154. (37) Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World, page 3 (38) World Development Report 2010 – Development and Climate Change, The World Bank, Page 4. (39) Zoellick ibid (40) Dev Raj Dahal, ibid (41) Joseph E. Stiglitz: Freefall: Free karkets and the Sinking of the Global Economy, Allen Lane 2010, page 274 (42) Federico Mayor in collaboration with Jerôme Bindé, ibid Page 179. (43) Responsible Growth for the New Millennium - Integrating Society, Ecology, and the Economy, The World Bank, 2004, page 1-2) (44) Responsible Growth . . . page 9. (45) Robert Skidelsky : Keynes and Social Democracy Today, Project Syndicate (June 22,2010) (46) Interview with Dambis Moyo‟s by Joanne Myers of Carnegie Council – April 2. 2009 (47) Why Foreign Aid is Hurting Africa, Wall Street Journal March 21,2009 (48) Beijing Review October 6, 2011 (49) Ban Ki Moon: The Power to End Poverty, Project Syndicate (October 3, 2011) (50) Self Enforcing Democracy, Department of Politics – New York University, June 28, 2005 20
  • 21. Note: This is the updated version of the working paper was prepared for a workshop jointly organized by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) Nepal and T.P. Acharya Memorial Foundation, Kathmandu on November 17, 2011. 21