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Start-ups and Spinouts:
the Fuzzy Front-End & the Hard Yards

is it worth it?

confessions of a Start-up junkie

and Spin-outs, but

Place

Angel Deals By Region (2013/14)
Not
every region
suffered
a decline. Deals
were up 100% in
the North
East
Context: Northern Ireland economy 

Lag in growth 

Dependence on public
sector 

Low levels of start-ups 

Belfast bottom of the league 

Low levels of start-ups 

Centre for Cities
Northern Ireland bottom of the league 

Knowledge Economy Index
Low levels of Knowledge based start-ups 


correlation does not = causation - right!

correlation does not = causation - right!
Does a weak economy leads to low rate of startup

or do low startup rates lead to weak economy?
i.e. do we make any difference?
Director of Innovation
Queen’s University Belfast
Now
Brian McCaul
Queen’”âčs Number 1 for IP Income
(2014-15)
Performance Area UK
Ranking
IP Income (equity and license) 1st
Sale of spinout shares 1st
Current spinouts turnover 5th
Current Spinouts Active 8th
Performance compared for all UK Universities
not a ‘one-off fluke’


but is it worth the candle?
So should we strive to create more?
Why?
Who’s we?
What is a Start-up or Spinout?
How do we do it?
Because they create jobs

“systematic empirical case that virtually all net job
creation was in fact due to younger firms” (Davis,
Haltiwanger, and Shuh, 1996)
Younger firms grow quicker and provide most jobs...
“[neither]	
  SMEs and the startups
 are ..
particularly valuable to the economy -
whether measured by jobs, productivity or
innovation”.
British government spends 
 £8 billion PA on SMEs -
more than .. on the police and close to the amount it
spends on universities.
Research at the University of Cambridge (Hughes 2008) suggests that the
No they don’t create jobs..!
So what is a Startup?
“A startup is a temporary organisation used to search for a
repeatable and scalable business model”
Steve Blank
“A startup is a human institution designed to deliver a new
product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty”
Eric Ries
“The typical startup isn't innovative, doesn't intend to
challenge existing companies, lacks a single competitive
adverting, and is not intend to grow”
Scott A Shane
“sixpercent
of businesseswiththe
highestgrowthrates
generatedhalfofthenew
jobscreatedbyexisting
businessesbetween2002
and2008.”
They pay better

They are more productive

And they export more

We should drop the
term ‘SME’
obvs!
Policies that treat all firms as equally candidates for growth are likely to expect
“too much”	
  from the vast majority of firms with relatively low growth
potential

So if not all ‘Startups’ are the same 

What do we call those that have growth potential?
> Scale-ups
> High Growth Firms
> Gazelles or
> Knowledge Economy-based Startups

What - crucially - are the characteristics that
differential them?
MIT
Jorge Guzman & Scott
Stern
Thiel
Peter
Scale-ups
Coutu
Lean Start-up
Blank
Registration Propriety Tech Ambition
Product-
Market Fit
Ambition Brand
Effective
Management
Channels
Not
Eponymous
Scaleable
Economics
Partnerships Key Resources
Protection
Network
Effects
Competencies
Customer
Acquisition
Early-stage “digital signatures” of high-quality ventures?
what can be done to inïŹ‚uence Growth?
Great 
 but you can’t drive looking through the rear-view mirror 

MIT
Jorge Guzman & Scott
Stern
Thiel
Peter
Scale-ups
Coutu
Lean Start-up
Blank
Registration Propriety Tech Ambition
Product-
Market Fit
Ambition Brand
Effective
Management
Channels
Not
Eponymous
Scaleable
Economics
Partnerships Key Resources
Protection
Network
Effects
Competencies
Customer
Acquisition
Early-stage “digital signatures” of high-quality ventures?
all about shots on goal?
“Theproblemisthatitisverydifficult,if
notimpossible,to
knowatthetimeoffoundingwhetheror
notfirmsarelikelytosurviveand/orgrow.”
(Hathaway
and Litan, 2014b)
Can we imprint those digital signatures..?
If startups are really just ultimately experiments

Canwebakegrowthintothecompanywhen
designingthatexperiment..?
Preferably with Social and Economic Impact..!
“Monopoly is the condition of any
every successful business”
“Every monopoly is unique, but they usually
share some combination of the following
characteristics:
proprietary technology,
network effects
economics of scale
and branding”	
  
Peter Thiel - Zero to One
“Proprietary Technology is the most
substantive advantage because it make you
produce difficult or impossible to replicate”	
  
“Properly understand any new way of doing things
is a technology”
A complex combination of proprietary technology
Serious scale cost advantages.
Ecosystem provides the network effects to lock people in.
Apple has all these things.
So what does this all have to do with spinouts?
University spin-offs transform technological inventions
developed from university research that are likely to remain
unexploited otherwise.
A research spin-off is a company that falls into at least one
of the four following categories:
Companies that have an Equity investment from a national library or university
Companies that license technology from a public research institute or university
Companies that consider a university or public sector employee to have been a
founder
Companies that have been established by a public research institution
“Proprietary Technology is the most
substantive advantage because it make you
produce difficult or impossible to replicate”	
  
“Properly understand any new way of doing things
is a technology”
Recent NI IPOs
50% 50%
Qubis
Not-Qubis
Kainos
Andor
UTV
First
Derivatives
Feeders 
 and Leaders
It will be led by entrepreneurs 

Spinouts can contribute to the 6%
and can create the game changers
Because spinouts can be critical
for ecosystem development 

“you cannot create something out of nothing 

entrepreneurial ecosystems are based on pre-
existing assets”
not one size fits all
“Are US Spinout processes really better than those of UK
Universities” - Dr K Ku & Dr L Nelsen - for HEFCE
Spinouts can play a role in
stimulating the Innovation
ecosystem 

What I believe should be emphasised is not startups or entrepreneurs in and of themselves, but the
innovation ecosystems within which they operate and which they depend on if they are to become what
does matter: high growth innovative firms (of any size) within that system.
Spinouts can play a role in
stimulating the Enterprise
ecosystem

Because they are critical for
innovation 

I wouldn't start from
here if I were you

Innovation
THE ANTIBODIES TO INNOVATION ARE
STRONG IN MOST ORGANIZATIONS
Big companies with a few exceptions (fewer than 5)
are not equipped to experiment at this volume.
‱ Process - Structure to identify & develop experiments doesn’t exist
‱ Culture - These experiments will mostly fail. That is not often easy
to do in large organizations
‱ Resources - Large volume of experiments require big money
‱ Ideas - Big companies are not always well-suited to develop these
experimental ideas. Thinking of them is not easy.
CBInsights
Moving from the periphery to the centre

From selling Beanie Babies then ultimately moved up into cars and art
CBInsights
As the life cycle of a corporate drops -
and as the cost of a start-up drop

Even if most do fail

CBInsights
Theyshortcutpainstakingcorporateplanning
cycle
That’sinherentlybiasedtowardincremental
improvements
Andnurturedisruptivetechnologies&radical
businessmodels
So yes it is worth the candle
Yes it can help seed the Innovation and
Entrepreneurial eco-system
SO what more can we do?
Research Development
Tech transfer
Commercialisation
Market Entry
Valley of Death
Profit/Loss
time
Funding is difficult to access in most start-up eco-systems
There is no product - never mind product market-fit
Requires lots of experimentation engagement without
revenue case to support

MIT
Jorge Guzman & Scott
Stern
Thiel
Peter
Scale-ups
Coutu
Lean Start-up
Blank
Registration Propriety Tech Ambition
Product-
Market Fit
Ambition Brand
Effective
Management
Channels
Not
Eponymous
Scaleable
Economics
Partnerships Key Resources
Protection
Network
Effects
Competencies
Customer
Acquisition
Early-stage “digital signatures” of high-quality ventures?
Early Validation & Fast Failure
LeanStartupApproachandLaunchpadwithUlster.
What is a Startup?
Not smaller versions of large companies
Large companies execute Known Business Models
Startups search for Unknown Business Models
Startups Fail because they Confuse Search with Execute
Startups are a temporary organisation
designed to search
for a repeatable
and scalable business model
Northern Ireland Lean Launchpad
≈
Northern Ireland Lean Launchpad
≈
Hypothesis - Test driven
Entrepreneur Led
Market Focused
Team Dependent
(using Post Docs)
Creating a pool of credible ‘rowers’ to power
start-ups
https://vimeo.com/109811495
Observation 5 - it needs to be selective
Observation 2 - make it easy!
“because innovation is so uncertain (most will fail), it is
fundamental to consider the risk-reward relationship in
innovation
 Indeed, the state should 
.spending also, for
example, on seed finance which private venture capital (VC)
has proved too risk-averse to fund”
“Make it Less Risky
”
“Silicon Valley’s latest hero, Elon Musk, launched Tesla, a
successful maker of electric cars, with a $500m guaranteed
government loan”.
Not
every region
suffered
a decline. Deals
were up 100% in
the North
East
The Seed Market
In 2013, angel networks were replaced by government-backed funds, followed by crowd funders, as the top funders
More than the next 2 together

This is - at the *moment* an early stage phenomena

but that’”âčs what we tend to do!
BetterTerms CompletedRound AgileValuation De-risked
Hittargetin48hours!
Testing Valuations - Pre-IPO
?
Technology from
MMU Over-raised
ÂŁ700,000 from 37
angel investors
MindlïŹ‚ood
Double deal flow - make more ‘small bets’
Better validate early opportunities
Pool a community of tested entrepreneurs
Make the process Simple, Lean & Scalable
Better map the funding landscape
Mix grant to equity finance
Exploit emergent investment markets
In Summary:

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Start-ups, Spinouts and Stimulating Innovation Ecosystems

  • 1. Start-ups and Spinouts: the Fuzzy Front-End & the Hard Yards
 is it worth it? 
confessions of a Start-up junkie

  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 7. Angel Deals By Region (2013/14)
  • 8. Not every region suffered a decline. Deals were up 100% in the North East
  • 9. Context: Northern Ireland economy 
 Lag in growth 
 Dependence on public sector 

  • 10. Low levels of start-ups 

  • 11. Belfast bottom of the league 
 Low levels of start-ups 
 Centre for Cities
  • 12. Northern Ireland bottom of the league 
 Knowledge Economy Index Low levels of Knowledge based start-ups 

  • 13. 
correlation does not = causation - right!
  • 14. 
correlation does not = causation - right!
  • 15. Does a weak economy leads to low rate of startup 
or do low startup rates lead to weak economy? i.e. do we make any difference?
  • 16. Director of Innovation Queen’s University Belfast Now Brian McCaul
  • 17. Queen’”âčs Number 1 for IP Income (2014-15)
  • 18. Performance Area UK Ranking IP Income (equity and license) 1st Sale of spinout shares 1st Current spinouts turnover 5th Current Spinouts Active 8th Performance compared for all UK Universities
  • 19. not a ‘one-off fluke’

  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. 
but is it worth the candle?
  • 25. So should we strive to create more? Why? Who’s we? What is a Start-up or Spinout? How do we do it?
  • 26. Because they create jobs
 “systematic empirical case that virtually all net job creation was in fact due to younger firms” (Davis, Haltiwanger, and Shuh, 1996) Younger firms grow quicker and provide most jobs...
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. “[neither]  SMEs and the startups
 are .. particularly valuable to the economy - whether measured by jobs, productivity or innovation”. British government spends 
 ÂŁ8 billion PA on SMEs - more than .. on the police and close to the amount it spends on universities. Research at the University of Cambridge (Hughes 2008) suggests that the No they don’t create jobs..!
  • 30.
  • 31. So what is a Startup? “A startup is a temporary organisation used to search for a repeatable and scalable business model” Steve Blank “A startup is a human institution designed to deliver a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty” Eric Ries “The typical startup isn't innovative, doesn't intend to challenge existing companies, lacks a single competitive adverting, and is not intend to grow” Scott A Shane
  • 34. They are more productive

  • 35. And they export more

  • 36. We should drop the term ‘SME’
obvs! Policies that treat all firms as equally candidates for growth are likely to expect “too much”  from the vast majority of firms with relatively low growth potential

  • 37. So if not all ‘Startups’ are the same 
 What do we call those that have growth potential? > Scale-ups > High Growth Firms > Gazelles or > Knowledge Economy-based Startups
 What - crucially - are the characteristics that differential them?
  • 38. MIT Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern Thiel Peter Scale-ups Coutu Lean Start-up Blank Registration Propriety Tech Ambition Product- Market Fit Ambition Brand Effective Management Channels Not Eponymous Scaleable Economics Partnerships Key Resources Protection Network Effects Competencies Customer Acquisition Early-stage “digital signatures” of high-quality ventures?
  • 39.
  • 40. what can be done to inïŹ‚uence Growth?
  • 41. Great 
 but you can’t drive looking through the rear-view mirror 

  • 42. MIT Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern Thiel Peter Scale-ups Coutu Lean Start-up Blank Registration Propriety Tech Ambition Product- Market Fit Ambition Brand Effective Management Channels Not Eponymous Scaleable Economics Partnerships Key Resources Protection Network Effects Competencies Customer Acquisition Early-stage “digital signatures” of high-quality ventures?
  • 43. all about shots on goal? “Theproblemisthatitisverydifficult,if notimpossible,to knowatthetimeoffoundingwhetheror notfirmsarelikelytosurviveand/orgrow.” (Hathaway and Litan, 2014b)
  • 44. Can we imprint those digital signatures..? If startups are really just ultimately experiments
 Canwebakegrowthintothecompanywhen designingthatexperiment..?
  • 45. Preferably with Social and Economic Impact..!
  • 46.
  • 47. “Monopoly is the condition of any every successful business” “Every monopoly is unique, but they usually share some combination of the following characteristics: proprietary technology, network effects economics of scale and branding”   Peter Thiel - Zero to One
  • 48. “Proprietary Technology is the most substantive advantage because it make you produce difficult or impossible to replicate”   “Properly understand any new way of doing things is a technology”
  • 49. A complex combination of proprietary technology Serious scale cost advantages. Ecosystem provides the network effects to lock people in. Apple has all these things.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53. So what does this all have to do with spinouts?
  • 54. University spin-offs transform technological inventions developed from university research that are likely to remain unexploited otherwise.
  • 55. A research spin-off is a company that falls into at least one of the four following categories: Companies that have an Equity investment from a national library or university Companies that license technology from a public research institute or university Companies that consider a university or public sector employee to have been a founder Companies that have been established by a public research institution
  • 56. “Proprietary Technology is the most substantive advantage because it make you produce difficult or impossible to replicate”   “Properly understand any new way of doing things is a technology”
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. Recent NI IPOs 50% 50% Qubis Not-Qubis Kainos Andor UTV First Derivatives
  • 61. Feeders 
 and Leaders It will be led by entrepreneurs 

  • 62. Spinouts can contribute to the 6% and can create the game changers
  • 63. Because spinouts can be critical for ecosystem development 

  • 64.
  • 65. “you cannot create something out of nothing 
 entrepreneurial ecosystems are based on pre- existing assets” not one size fits all “Are US Spinout processes really better than those of UK Universities” - Dr K Ku & Dr L Nelsen - for HEFCE
  • 66. Spinouts can play a role in stimulating the Innovation ecosystem 
 What I believe should be emphasised is not startups or entrepreneurs in and of themselves, but the innovation ecosystems within which they operate and which they depend on if they are to become what does matter: high growth innovative firms (of any size) within that system.
  • 67. Spinouts can play a role in stimulating the Enterprise ecosystem

  • 68.
  • 69. Because they are critical for innovation 

  • 70. I wouldn't start from here if I were you
 Innovation
  • 71. THE ANTIBODIES TO INNOVATION ARE STRONG IN MOST ORGANIZATIONS Big companies with a few exceptions (fewer than 5) are not equipped to experiment at this volume. ‱ Process - Structure to identify & develop experiments doesn’t exist ‱ Culture - These experiments will mostly fail. That is not often easy to do in large organizations ‱ Resources - Large volume of experiments require big money ‱ Ideas - Big companies are not always well-suited to develop these experimental ideas. Thinking of them is not easy. CBInsights
  • 72. Moving from the periphery to the centre
 From selling Beanie Babies then ultimately moved up into cars and art CBInsights
  • 73. As the life cycle of a corporate drops - and as the cost of a start-up drop

  • 74. Even if most do fail

  • 75.
  • 77.
  • 79.
  • 80. So yes it is worth the candle Yes it can help seed the Innovation and Entrepreneurial eco-system SO what more can we do?
  • 81. Research Development Tech transfer Commercialisation Market Entry Valley of Death Profit/Loss time Funding is difficult to access in most start-up eco-systems
  • 82. There is no product - never mind product market-fit Requires lots of experimentation engagement without revenue case to support

  • 83. MIT Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern Thiel Peter Scale-ups Coutu Lean Start-up Blank Registration Propriety Tech Ambition Product- Market Fit Ambition Brand Effective Management Channels Not Eponymous Scaleable Economics Partnerships Key Resources Protection Network Effects Competencies Customer Acquisition Early-stage “digital signatures” of high-quality ventures?
  • 84.
  • 85. Early Validation & Fast Failure LeanStartupApproachandLaunchpadwithUlster.
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 89. What is a Startup? Not smaller versions of large companies Large companies execute Known Business Models Startups search for Unknown Business Models Startups Fail because they Confuse Search with Execute Startups are a temporary organisation designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model
  • 90. Northern Ireland Lean Launchpad ≈
  • 91. Northern Ireland Lean Launchpad ≈ Hypothesis - Test driven Entrepreneur Led Market Focused Team Dependent (using Post Docs)
  • 92. Creating a pool of credible ‘rowers’ to power start-ups
  • 94.
  • 95. Observation 5 - it needs to be selective
  • 96. Observation 2 - make it easy!
  • 97.
  • 98. “because innovation is so uncertain (most will fail), it is fundamental to consider the risk-reward relationship in innovation
 Indeed, the state should 
.spending also, for example, on seed finance which private venture capital (VC) has proved too risk-averse to fund” “Make it Less Risky
”
  • 99. “Silicon Valley’s latest hero, Elon Musk, launched Tesla, a successful maker of electric cars, with a $500m guaranteed government loan”.
  • 100. Not every region suffered a decline. Deals were up 100% in the North East
  • 101.
  • 102.
  • 103. The Seed Market In 2013, angel networks were replaced by government-backed funds, followed by crowd funders, as the top funders More than the next 2 together

  • 104.
  • 105.
  • 106.
  • 107. This is - at the *moment* an early stage phenomena 
but that’”âčs what we tend to do!
  • 108.
  • 109. BetterTerms CompletedRound AgileValuation De-risked Hittargetin48hours!
  • 110. Testing Valuations - Pre-IPO
?
  • 113. Double deal flow - make more ‘small bets’ Better validate early opportunities Pool a community of tested entrepreneurs Make the process Simple, Lean & Scalable Better map the funding landscape Mix grant to equity finance Exploit emergent investment markets In Summary: