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Lecture 6

                   Economic Monetary Union
                Optimal Currency Area Theory
                     Costs & Benefits of EMU
                               Ancient Rome


Stephen Kinsella
www.stephen kinsella.net
Background
1990––1999


1.        Free Movement of Capital


                     Coordination of Ec. Policy
     2.
                    Independent Central Banks

                                   The Euro
               3.             Common Monetary Policy
                                   The ECB
Benefits of a Single
Currency
Inflation Convergence Within Six Original EMS Members,
                     1978-2000
So ....
Less transactions costs
More price transparency
Less uncertainty
More economic growth
Less transactions costs


       Elimination of foreign exchange markets
       within union eliminates cost of
       exchanging one currency into another
       Cost reductions amount to 0.25 to 0.5%
       of GDP
Price transparency
One common unit of
account facilitates price
comparisons

Consumers “shop
around” more

Competition increases

Prices decline and
consumers gain
Will euro increase price transparency in a significant
                        way?




              Large price differentials continue to exist
              These have to do with
                transactions costs at the retail level
                and product differentiation
Handout
Less Uncertainty
Does the decline in
exchange risk increase
              welfare?
Price Certainty                     Price Uncertainty

     P                                   P
                           MC                               MC

                                                                   X
                                    P3
P1                                  P1
              A
                                    P2             A
                                                            Y


                                Q                                  Q

 Profit = A-(Area of         )        Profit = A-(Area of          )+X+Y
Profits are higher on average
when there is price certainty

Welfare will then depend on
degree of risk aversion

If risk aversion sufficiently high
price certainty is preferred by
firms
More economic growth
Empirical evidence
 about monetary
union and growth
Next Week
 Benefits & Costs of a Single Currency
 We’ll develop Optimal Currency Area Theory



Read
Pelkmans, J. European Integration: Methods and
Economic Analysis 1st ed., pgs. 83–104 and 133–
155. 337.142 PEL.

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Ec4333 Lecture 4 2007 Final

  • 1. Lecture 6 Economic Monetary Union Optimal Currency Area Theory Costs & Benefits of EMU Ancient Rome Stephen Kinsella www.stephen kinsella.net
  • 3. 1990––1999 1. Free Movement of Capital Coordination of Ec. Policy 2. Independent Central Banks The Euro 3. Common Monetary Policy The ECB
  • 4. Benefits of a Single Currency
  • 5. Inflation Convergence Within Six Original EMS Members, 1978-2000
  • 6. So .... Less transactions costs More price transparency Less uncertainty More economic growth
  • 7. Less transactions costs Elimination of foreign exchange markets within union eliminates cost of exchanging one currency into another Cost reductions amount to 0.25 to 0.5% of GDP
  • 8. Price transparency One common unit of account facilitates price comparisons Consumers “shop around” more Competition increases Prices decline and consumers gain
  • 9. Will euro increase price transparency in a significant way? Large price differentials continue to exist These have to do with transactions costs at the retail level and product differentiation
  • 12. Does the decline in exchange risk increase welfare?
  • 13. Price Certainty Price Uncertainty P P MC MC X P3 P1 P1 A P2 A Y Q Q Profit = A-(Area of ) Profit = A-(Area of )+X+Y
  • 14. Profits are higher on average when there is price certainty Welfare will then depend on degree of risk aversion If risk aversion sufficiently high price certainty is preferred by firms
  • 16. Empirical evidence about monetary union and growth
  • 17. Next Week Benefits & Costs of a Single Currency We’ll develop Optimal Currency Area Theory Read Pelkmans, J. European Integration: Methods and Economic Analysis 1st ed., pgs. 83–104 and 133– 155. 337.142 PEL.